November 10, 2009 - Bysiewicz Trails Connecticut's Rell By Just 6 Points, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Most Don't Know Or Don't Care About Consultant Flap Word format In an early look at the 2010 election for Connecticut Governor, Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz runs best among possible Democratic challengers, trailing Republican incumbent Jodi Rell 46 - 40 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Gov. Rell leads 91 - 5 percent among Republicans and 56 - 26 percent among independent voters, while Bysiewicz leads 74 - 12 percent among Democrats. Businessman Ned Lamont trails Rell 53 - 33 percent and Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy loses 52 - 33 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. In a Democratic primary matchup, Bysiewicz gets 26 percent to 23 percent for Lamont, with 9 percent for Malloy. No other contender tops 3 percent. Connecticut voters approve 64 - 30 percent of the job Rell is doing, up from 59 - 34 percent September 16. "It's early in the process, but Connecticut faces the interesting prospect of an all female Governor's race between Gov. Jodi Rell and Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz next year," said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, PhD. "Ned Lamont made headlines last week by announcing his exploratory committee, but Bysiewicz is the stronger general election candidate. She runs a fairly close race with Rell, but Lamont loses handily. In the primary Lamont and Bysiewicz are at the top, but Lamont's money gives him a big advantage. "Gov. Rell is rebounding from her approval slump. We saw her dropping through the summer and now she is starting back up. If this trend continues, she will be hard to beat." Connecticut voters give Rell a 60 - 29 percent favorability. Bysiewicz gets a 43 - 11 percent favorability, with 44 percent who don't know enough about her to form an opinion. Lamont gets a 31 - 24 percent favorability, with 43 percent who don't know enough about him. For other Democratic contenders, 67 percent to 92 percent of voters don't know enough about them to form an opinion. Looking at Rell's characteristics, Connecticut voters say: 69 - 27 percent that she has strong leadership qualities; 76 - 16 percent that she is honest and trustworthy; 54 - 38 percent that she shares their views on issues important to them; Ethics in state government have gotten better since Rell became Governor, 39 percent say, while 12 percent say they've gotten worse and 48 percent say there's been no change. Only 33 percent of Connecticut voters have heard or read "a lot" or "some" about investigations into the Rell administration's hiring of a university professor supposedly to streamline state government. Of this 33 percent, 48 percent feel taxpayer funds were misused to provide Rell political advice, while 36 percent do not believe that. Also of the 33 percent, only 25 percent say this controversy is a major concern, while 53 percent say it's a minor concern and 22 percent say it's no concern at all. "Not many voters know about the controversy surrounding the Rell administration's hiring of a professor as a consultant, and few of those who know seem to care," Schwartz said. "Perhaps the issue is too complicated. This is not your typical government corruption case. "Some bad news for Rell: most voters say ethics in the state government has stayed the same or gotten worse on her watch. And since she took office on the heels of John Rowland's conviction, one would hope that ethics would get better. From November 3 - 8, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,236 Connecticut registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. The survey includes 474 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for governor were being held today and the candidates were Ned Lamont, Dan Malloy, Susan Bysiewicz, Gary LeBeau, Rudy Marconi and Jim Amann, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED DEMS Lamont 23% Malloy 9 Bysiewicz 26 LeBeau 2 Marconi 1 Amann 3 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 DK/NA 33 TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for governor were being held today and the candidates were Ned Lamont, Dan Malloy, Susan Bysiewicz, Gary LeBeau, Rudy Marconi and Jim Amann, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED DEMS Nov 10 Feb 10 2009 2009 Lamont 23 na Malloy 9 12 Bysiewicz 26 44 LeBeau 2 na Marconi 1 na Amann 3 4 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 DK/NA 33 36 4. If the 2010 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Dan Malloy the Democrat and Jodi Rell the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Malloy 33% 5% 66% 19% 31% 36% Rell 52 92 20 63 57 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 2 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 12 3 11 16 10 15 MdlSex Toll,Wndm Farfld Hrtfrd Lchfld NewHvn NewLon Malloy 28% 37% 27% 34% 40% Rell 60 49 52 51 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 - 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - 1 2 1 DK/NA 10 13 20 12 12 TREND: If the 2010 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Dan Malloy the Democrat and Jodi Rell the Republican, for whom would you vote? Nov 10 Feb 10 2009 2009 Malloy 33 26 Rell 52 58 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 DK/NA 12 14 5. If the 2010 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Susan Bysiewicz the Democrat and Jodi Rell the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Bysiewicz 40% 5% 74% 26% 35% 45% Rell 46 91 12 56 52 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - 1 - - 1 DK/NA 12 3 13 16 11 13 MdlSex Toll,Wndm Farfld Hrtfrd Lchfld NewHvn NewLon Bysiewicz 28% 49% 34% 41% 50% Rell 59 40 52 45 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 3 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 1 1 - DK/NA 14 10 11 13 12 TREND: If the 2010 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Susan Bysiewicz the Democrat and Jodi Rell the Republican, for whom would you vote? Nov 10 Feb 10 2009 2009 Bysiewicz 40 32 Rell 46 53 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 DK/NA 12 14 6. If the 2010 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ned Lamont the Democrat and Jodi Rell the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Lamont 33% 3% 62% 23% 32% 34% Rell 53 94 22 62 56 50 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 12 2 14 13 10 14 MdlSex Toll,Wndm Farfld Hrtfrd Lchfld NewHvn NewLon Lamont 29% 36% 32% 31% 39% Rell 59 49 56 52 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 3 DK/NA 11 14 11 13 9 7. Is your opinion of - Jodi Rell favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 60% 85% 36% 70% 59% 60% Unfavorable 29 6 51 18 28 30 Hvn't hrd enough 8 8 9 7 9 6 REFUSED 4 1 4 4 4 3 MdlSex Toll,Wndm Farfld Hrtfrd Lchfld NewHvn NewLon Favorable 72% 53% 59% 57% 52% Unfavorable 19 34 32 29 39 Hvn't hrd enough 6 7 5 11 5 REFUSED 2 6 4 3 4 TREND: Is your opinion of - Jodi Rell favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Nov 10 Feb 10 2009 2009 Favorable 60 70 Unfavorable 29 17 Hvn't hrd enough 8 10 REFUSED 4 3 8. Is your opinion of - Susan Bysiewicz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 43% 26% 55% 41% 38% 49% Unfavorable 11 27 3 12 14 8 Hvn't hrd enough 44 46 42 46 47 42 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 - 1 MdlSex Toll,Wndm Farfld Hrtfrd Lchfld NewHvn NewLon Favorable 22% 59% 37% 46% 55% Unfavorable 9 11 35 11 9 Hvn't hrd enough 69 28 27 43 35 REFUSED - 2 1 1 1 TREND: Is your opinion of - Susan Bysiewicz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Nov 10 Feb 10 2009 2009 Favorable 43 40 Unfavorable 11 12 Hvn't hrd enough 44 48 REFUSED 1 1 9. Is your opinion of - Jim Amann favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 7% 3% 9% 6% 9% 5% Unfavorable 8 13 5 9 9 7 Hvn't hrd enough 84 83 85 84 81 87 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 MdlSex Toll,Wndm Farfld Hrtfrd Lchfld NewHvn NewLon Favorable 5% 7% 1% 14% 2% Unfavorable 6 9 9 10 4 Hvn't hrd enough 88 82 90 76 93 REFUSED 1 1 - - - TREND: Is your opinion of - Jim Amann favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Nov 10 Feb 10 2009 2009 Favorable 7 7 Unfavorable 8 13 Hvn't hrd enough 84 79 REFUSED 1 1 10. Is your opinion of - Dan Malloy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 21% 7% 32% 16% 23% 18% Unfavorable 10 16 3 14 13 8 Hvn't hrd enough 67 75 63 69 63 71 REFUSED 2 2 1 1 1 3 MdlSex Toll,Wndm Farfld Hrtfrd Lchfld NewHvn NewLon Favorable 30% 18% 30% 16% 14% Unfavorable 11 6 8 14 11 Hvn't hrd enough 58 74 61 66 74 REFUSED - 2 1 4 1 TREND:Is your opinion of - Dan Malloy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Nov 10 Feb 10 2009 2009 Favorable 21 19 Unfavorable 10 11 Hvn't hrd enough 67 69 REFUSED 2 1 11. Is your opinion of - Ned Lamont favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 31% 12% 45% 27% 33% 29% Unfavorable 24 45 11 27 30 19 Hvn't hrd enough 43 42 42 46 37 49 REFUSED 1 1 1 - - 3 MdlSex Toll,Wndm Farfld Hrtfrd Lchfld NewHvn NewLon Favorable 29% 39% 27% 27% 30% Unfavorable 23 21 36 29 19 Hvn't hrd enough 48 38 36 41 49 REFUSED - 2 1 3 1 12. Is your opinion of - Gary LeBeau favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 4% 2% 7% 2% 4% 4% Unfavorable 4 1 4 5 4 3 Hvn't hrd enough 91 97 88 92 91 91 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 - 2 MdlSex Toll,Wndm Farfld Hrtfrd Lchfld NewHvn NewLon Favorable 2% 7% - 2% 7% Unfavorable 5 4 1 3 2 Hvn't hrd enough 92 88 99 92 90 REFUSED - 1 1 3 1 13. Is your opinion of - Rudy Marconi favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 5% 10% 5% 4% 8% 3% Unfavorable 3 1 2 5 4 2 Hvn't hrd enough 92 89 93 91 88 95 REFUSED - - 1 - - - MdlSex Toll,Wndm Farfld Hrtfrd Lchfld NewHvn NewLon Favorable 14% - 9% 2% 2% Unfavorable 2 2 - 6 1 Hvn't hrd enough 84 97 90 92 97 REFUSED - 1 1 1 - 28. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jodi Rell is handling her job as governor? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 64% 86% 47% 68% 67% 61% Disapprove 30 11 46 25 27 34 DK/NA 6 3 6 7 7 5 MdlSex Toll,Wndm Farfld Hrtfrd Lchfld NewHvn NewLon Approve 77% 57% 72% 62% 53% Disapprove 17 39 25 30 43 DK/NA 6 5 3 8 5 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jodi Rell is handling her job as governor? APPROVE....... High Low Nov 10 Sep 16 Jul 22 May 27 Apr 2 Jan 13 Sep 16 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2005 2009 Approve 64 59 65 73 72 83 59 Disapprove 30 34 30 20 22 3 34 DK/NA 6 7 5 7 6 14 7 29. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 33% 35% 37% 30% 30% 35% Disapprove 54 57 49 56 61 48 DK/NA 13 8 14 14 10 16 MdlSex Toll,Wndm Farfld Hrtfrd Lchfld NewHvn NewLon Approve 35% 29% 31% 29% 41% Disapprove 51 62 49 54 51 DK/NA 15 9 20 16 8 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? APPROVE....... High Low Nov 10 Sep 16 Jul 22 May 9 Feb 15 Jun 3 Jul 31 2009 2009 2009 2007 2007 2004 2003 Approve 33 35 39 45 47 48 29 Disapprove 54 55 45 38 34 33 57 DK/NA 13 11 16 17 18 19 14 32. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Richard Blumenthal is handling his job as State Attorney General? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 78% 70% 84% 79% 77% 80% Disapprove 13 23 8 12 13 13 DK/NA 9 7 8 8 10 8 MdlSex Toll,Wndm Farfld Hrtfrd Lchfld NewHvn NewLon Approve 79% 85% 65% 79% 71% Disapprove 13 13 19 10 15 DK/NA 8 2 15 11 14 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Richard Blumenthal is handling his job as State Attorney General? APPROVE....... High Low Nov 10 Sep 16 Jul 22 May 27 Mar 10 Mar 10 Nov 23 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2004 Approve 78 78 79 78 81 81 71 Disapprove 13 14 13 9 10 10 15 DK/NA 9 8 8 13 9 9 13 36. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Connecticut today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Very satisfied 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% Smwht satisfied 41 45 44 36 41 41 Smwht dissatisfied 39 35 37 43 39 38 Very dissatisfied 17 17 15 18 17 17 DK/NA 1 - 1 - - 1 MdlSex Toll,Wndm Farfld Hrtfrd Lchfld NewHvn NewLon Very satisfied 4% 2% 4% 1% 3% Smwht satisfied 52 32 53 37 39 Smwht dissatisfied 30 42 25 47 40 Very dissatisfied 13 23 17 15 19 DK/NA 1 1 2 - - TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Connecticut today? Very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? VERY+SMWHT SAT High Low Nov 10 Sep 16 Jul 22 May 27 Mar 10 Oct 21 Mar 13 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 1998 2003 Very Satisfied 2 3 3 3 3 21 4 Smwht Satisfied 41 38 45 53 39 62 32 Smwht Dissatisfied 39 35 35 29 36 14 34 Very Dissatisfied 17 23 17 13 21 3 29 DK/NA 1 1 1 2 1 - 1 37. How likely are you to vote to re-elect Jodi Rell for governor in 2010 - do you think you will definitely vote for her, probably vote for her, probably not vote for her, or definitely not vote for her? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Definitely 19% 41% 5% 20% 23% 14% Probably 38 48 22 46 36 39 Probably not 19 6 28 16 18 20 Definitely not 19 1 37 13 18 20 DK/NA 6 4 8 5 5 7 MdlSex Toll,Wndm Farfld Hrtfrd Lchfld NewHvn NewLon Definitely 25% 19% 30% 16% 9% Probably 43 33 29 36 41 Probably not 15 15 20 23 24 Definitely not 12 28 15 17 22 DK/NA 5 5 7 7 5 TREND: How likely are you to vote to re-elect Jodi Rell for governor in 2010, do you think you will definitely vote for her, probably vote for her, probably not vote for her, or definitely not vote for her? Nov 10 Sep 16 Jul 22 Dec 17 Jul 1 2009 2009 2009 2008 2008 Definitely 19 14 15 14 13 Probably 38 43 43 40 40 Probably not 19 21 19 18 20 Definitely not 19 16 16 13 13 DK/NA 6 6 8 14 13 38. Would you say that Jodi Rell has strong leadership qualities or not? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 69% 82% 59% 72% 69% 69% No 27 14 35 25 27 27 DK/NA 4 4 6 3 5 4 TREND: Would you say that Jodi Rell has strong leadership qualities or not? Nov 10 Jul 22 Jul 27 Jan 13 2009 2009 2005 2005 Yes 69 76 82 79 No 27 21 11 7 DK/NA 4 3 7 14 39. Would you say that Jodi Rell is honest and trustworthy or not? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 76% 94% 62% 81% 78% 75% No 16 2 28 12 13 19 DK/NA 8 4 9 7 10 6 TREND: Would you say that Jodi Rell is honest and trustworthy or not? Nov 10 Jul 22 Jan 12 Jul 27 Jan 13 2009 2009 2006 2005 2005 Yes 76 84 83 87 82 No 16 11 7 5 3 DK/NA 8 5 11 8 14 40. Would you say that Jodi Rell shares your views on issues that you care about or not? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 54% 79% 30% 63% 56% 52% No 38 13 63 28 36 39 DK/NA 8 9 7 10 8 9 TREND: Would you say that Jodi Rell shares your views on issues that you care about or not? Nov 10 Jul 22 Jul 27 Jan 13 2009 2009 2005 2005 Yes 54 53 64 60 No 38 37 21 15 DK/NA 8 10 15 25 41. Since Jodi Rell became governor do you think ethics in state government have gotten better, worse, or stayed about the same? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Better 39% 50% 31% 41% 41% 37% Worse 12 5 18 9 10 14 The same 48 42 50 48 49 46 DK/NA 2 3 1 2 1 3 TREND: Since Jodi Rell became governor do you think ethics in state government have gotten better, worse, or stayed about the same? Nov 10 Jan 12 2009 2006 Better 39 60 Worse 12 2 The same 48 32 DK/NA 2 6 52. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jodi Rell is handling the economy? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 53% 76% 39% 55% 56% 51% Disapprove 39 21 51 38 37 41 DK/NA 7 3 11 7 7 8 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jodi Rell is handling the economy? Nov 10 Jul 22 Mar 10 Feb 10 2009 2009 2009 2009 Approve 53 54 68 67 Disapprove 39 35 24 23 DK/NA 7 11 8 10 54. How much have you heard or read about several investigations that have begun into the Rell administration's hiring of a University of Connecticut professor to oversee a 20,000 dollar project aimed at streamlining state government - a lot, some, not much, or nothing at all? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom A lot 10% 8% 14% 8% 10% 9% Some 23 22 21 25 26 20 Not much 25 21 22 28 28 21 Nothing at all 42 48 43 38 35 49 DK/NA 1 1 - 1 1 1 55. (If heard a lot or some q54) Do you think taxpayer funds for this project were misused to provide Governor Rell with political advice or not? HEARD A LOT OR SOME Q54............... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 48% 20% 65% 46% 41% 56% No 36 62 24 37 41 30 DK/NA 16 18 11 17 18 13 56. (If heard a lot or some q54) Is this controversy a major concern to you, a minor concern, or not a concern at all to you? HEARD A LOT OR SOME Q54............... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Major concern 25% 5% 40% 21% 17% 34% Minor concern 53 56 52 52 52 54 Not a concern 22 39 7 26 31 12 DK/NA - - - - - -
