August 4, 2010 - McMahon Chops Blumenthal Lead To 10 Pts In Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Connecticut Poll Finds; Simmons Gains Ground On McMahon Word format Republican former wrestling executive Linda McMahon trails Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, the Democrat, 50 - 40 percent in the U.S. Senate race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll of registered voters released today. That's down from a 54 - 37 percent Blumenthal lead July 16. In a separate survey of Republican likely primary voters, Rob Simmons trails Ms. McMahon 47 - 30 percent, with 14 percent for Peter Schiff. This compares to a 52 - 25 percent McMahon lead in a July 16 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. Only 8 percent of these Republican likely voters are undecided, but 38 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind by the August 10 primary. McMahon gets a 62 - 27 percent favorability rating from Republican likely voters, while Simmons gets a 49 - 24 percent score, with 25 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion. For Schiff, 61 percent don't know enough to form an opinion. Looking at McMahon and Simmons, Republican voters say: 41 - 33 percent that McMahon has the best character and personality to be a U.S. Senator; 39 - 33 percent that Simmons is most qualified to be a Senator; 42 - 27 percent that they most agree with McMahon on key issues; 45 - 25 percent that they most agree with McMahon's positions on the economy and jobs; 54 - 25 percent that McMahon is best able to win the general election. "The McMahon-Blumenthal Senate race in Connecticut could be a real smackdown, as the Republican has the money and momentum, cutting into Blumenthal's lead month to month," said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, PhD. "Independent voters, the largest bloc of voters in Connecticut, are for the first time evenly divided between Linda McMahon, who gets 46 percent, and Richard Blumenthal, who gets 44 percent. Blumenthal led 54 - 35 percent among independent voters just three weeks ago," Dr. Schwartz added. "But as McMahon focuses on Blumenthal, she better watch her back. Rob Simmons has shown surprising strength among Republican voters after jumping back into the primary contest barely two weeks ago. But it might be too little too late for Simmons. "Among all voters, McMahon runs better than Simmons against Blumenthal, which is different than our last poll when they ran roughly the same against Blumenthal. Republican primary voters think McMahon has the better character and personality to be a U.S. Senator, but that Simmons is more qualified." Among registered voters, Blumenthal leads Simmons 54 - 35 percent and tops Schiff 57 - 30 percent. Democrats back Blumenthal over McMahon 82 - 11 percent while Republicans back McMahon 71 - 18 percent. "While Blumenthal has lost independent voter support, his support among Republicans is at 18 percent," Schwartz said. Blumenthal gets a 57 - 30 percent favorability rating from Connecticut voters, compared to 60 - 28 percent July 16. McMahon's 43 - 37 percent favorability rating is unchanged. From July 28 - August 2, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,299 Connecticut registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. Also from July 29 - August 2, Quinnipiac University conducted a separate survey of 1,003 Connecticut likely Republican primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points. These likely voters were selected from lists of people who have voted in past elections. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. THE FOLLOWING RESULTS ARE BASED ON A POLL OF 1,003 LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS 5REP. If the Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today, would you vote for Linda McMahon, Rob Simmons, or Peter Schiff? (If undecided q5REP) As of today, would you say that you lean a little more toward McMahon, Simmons, or Schiff? (This table includes "Leaners".) LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom McMahon 47% 47% 47% Simmons 30 31 29 Schiff 14 16 13 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 8 6 10 Mod/ Con Lib McMahon 54% 36% Simmons 23 42 Schiff 15 12 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - DK/NA 7 9 TREND: If the Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today, would you vote for Linda McMahon, Rob Simmons, or Peter Schiff? (If undecided) As of today, would you say that you lean a little more toward McMahon, Simmons, or Schiff? (This table includes "Leaners".) LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Aug 4 Jul 16 2010 2010 McMahon 47 52 Simmons 30 25 Schiff 14 13 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - DK/NA 8 10 5aREP. (If express choice q5REP) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS CHOSE CANDIDATE Q5REP... CAND CHOICE Q5REP Tot LM RS PS Made up 61% 63% 60% 59% Might change 38 36 39 41 DK/NA 1 1 1 - TREND: (If express choice) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS CAND CHOICE GIVEN Aug 4 Jul 16 2010 2010 Made up 61 56 Might change 38 44 DK/NA 1 1 6REP. Is your opinion of - Rob Simmons favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Favorable 49% 55% 44% Unfavorable 24 24 23 Hvn't hrd enough 25 19 30 REFUSED 2 1 3 TREND: Is your opinion of Rob Simmons favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Aug 4 Jul 16 2010 2010 Favorable 49 46 Unfavorable 24 23 Hvn't hrd enough 25 29 REFUSED 2 2 7REP. Is your opinion of - Linda McMahon favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Favorable 62% 66% 59% Unfavorable 27 24 30 Hvn't hrd enough 8 8 9 REFUSED 2 2 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Linda McMahon favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Aug 4 Jul 16 2010 2010 Favorable 62 65 Unfavorable 27 21 Hvn't hrd enough 8 10 REFUSED 2 3 8REP. Is your opinion of - Peter Schiff favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Favorable 27% 32% 22% Unfavorable 11 12 9 Hvn't hrd enough 61 55 67 REFUSED 1 1 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Peter Schiff favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Aug 4 Jul 16 2010 2010 Favorable 27 26 Unfavorable 11 9 Hvn't hrd enough 61 63 REFUSED 1 1 18REP. Which of the following is most important to you in deciding whom to support in the Republican primary for United States Senator - a candidate's personality and character, a candidate's positions on key issues, a candidate's experience and qualifications or a candidate's ability to win the general election in November? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Personality 6% 7% 6% Pos on issues 54 52 56 Experience 27 23 30 Ability to win 9 14 4 DK/NA 4 4 4 19REP. Which Republican candidate do you think has the personality and character best suited to being a United States Senator - Linda McMahon, Rob Simmons or Peter Schiff? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom McMahon 41% 40% 42% Simmons 33 35 31 Schiff 13 15 11 DK/NA 13 11 16 20REP. Which of the Republican candidates do you think is most qualified to be a United States Senator - Linda McMahon, Rob Simmons or Peter Schiff? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom McMahon 33% 32% 35% Simmons 39 44 35 Schiff 14 14 13 DK/NA 14 10 17 21REP. Which Republican candidate's positions on key issues do you agree with most - Linda McMahon, Rob Simmons or Peter Schiff? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom McMahon 42% 42% 42% Simmons 27 29 25 Schiff 16 19 13 DK/NA 15 10 20 22REP. Which Republican candidate's position on the economy and jobs do you agree with most - Linda McMahon, Rob Simmons or Peter Schiff? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom McMahon 45% 43% 47% Simmons 25 26 24 Schiff 16 19 12 DK/NA 14 12 17 23REP. Which Republican candidate for Senator do you think would be best able to win the general election in November - Linda McMahon, Rob Simmons or Peter Schiff? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom McMahon 54% 58% 50% Simmons 25 26 24 Schiff 8 9 7 DK/NA 13 8 18 24REP. If Linda McMahon wins the Republican primary for United States Senator, how likely are you to support her in the general election in November - definitely, probably, maybe, or will you not support her? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Definitely 57% 61% 54% Probably 14 14 14 Maybe 13 12 13 Will not support 13 12 15 DK/NA 3 2 4 CAND CHOICE Q5REP LM RS PS Definitely 85% 26% 47% Probably 11 19 13 Maybe 2 26 18 Will not support - 29 21 DK/NA 1 1 1 25REP. If Rob Simmons wins the Republican primary for United States Senator, how likely are you to support him in the general election in November - definitely, probably, maybe, or will you not support him? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Definitely 54% 62% 46% Probably 19 15 22 Maybe 14 11 17 Will not support 9 8 9 DK/NA 4 3 6 CAND CHOICE Q5REP LM RS PS Definitely 48% 76% 44% Probably 22 14 18 Maybe 17 7 21 Will not support 10 2 16 DK/NA 3 1 2 26REP. If Peter Schiff wins the Republican primary for United States Senator, how likely are you to support him in the general election in November - definitely, probably, maybe, or will you not support him? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Definitely 44% 52% 36% Probably 20 19 21 Maybe 20 16 24 Will not support 10 9 12 DK/NA 5 4 7 CAND CHOICE Q5REP LM RS PS Definitely 45% 28% 85% Probably 22 23 9 Maybe 19 30 5 Will not support 10 15 1 DK/NA 4 4 - THE FOLLOWING RESULTS ARE BASED ON A POLL OF 1,299 REGISTERED VOTERS 12. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Richard Blumenthal the Democrat and Rob Simmons the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Blumenthal 54% 19% 85% 47% 50% 57% Simmons 35 71 9 38 41 30 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 2 4 3 4 DK/NA 7 8 4 11 7 8 TREND: If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Richard Blumenthal the Democrat and Rob Simmons the Republican, for whom would you vote? Aug 4 Jul 16 Jun 10 May 27 Mar 17 Jan 14 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 Blumenthal 54 55 54 55 62 62 Simmons 35 35 33 28 26 27 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 1 2 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 1 3 1 1 DK/NA 7 9 10 13 10 10 13. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Richard Blumenthal the Democrat and Linda McMahon the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Blumenthal 50% 18% 82% 44% 51% 50% McMahon 40 71 11 46 43 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 3 2 2 3 DK/NA 7 9 4 8 4 10 TREND: If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Richard Blumenthal the Democrat and Linda McMahon the Republican, for whom would you vote? Aug 4 Jul 16 Jun 10 May 27 Mar 17 Jan 14 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 Blumenthal 50 54 55 56 61 64 McMahon 40 37 35 31 28 23 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 1 1 DK/NA 7 7 8 10 10 11 14. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Richard Blumenthal the Democrat and Peter Schiff the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Blumenthal 57% 24% 86% 51% 53% 60% Schiff 30 64 5 31 38 23 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 1 4 5 2 5 DK/NA 9 11 5 12 6 12 TREND: If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Richard Blumenthal the Democrat and Peter Schiff the Republican, for whom would you vote? Aug 4 Jul 16 Jun 10 May 27 Mar 17 Jan 14 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 Blumenthal 57 58 56 59 64 66 Schiff 30 31 29 25 21 19 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 1 2 2 2 1 DK/NA 9 9 12 13 13 14 15. Is your opinion of - Richard Blumenthal favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 57% 31% 81% 52% 54% 60% Unfavorable 30 55 8 35 36 24 Hvn't hrd enough 12 13 11 11 9 15 REFUSED 1 1 - 2 1 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Richard Blumenthal favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Aug 4 Jul 16 Jun 10 May 27 Mar 17 Jan 14 Feb 10 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2009 Favorable 57 60 59 61 70 74 71 Unfavorable 30 28 29 29 18 13 13 Hvn't hrd enough 12 10 9 9 10 12 15 REFUSED 1 1 2 2 2 1 2 16. Is your opinion of - Rob Simmons favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 40% 55% 30% 41% 46% 35% Unfavorable 14 10 20 12 16 13 Hvn't hrd enough 44 33 49 45 37 50 REFUSED 2 2 1 2 1 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Rob Simmons favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? FAVORABLE..... High Low Aug 4 Jul 16 Jun 10 May 27 Mar 17 Sep 17 May 27 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 Favorable 40 39 36 36 38 41 34 Unfavorable 14 16 13 14 21 11 12 Hvn't hrd enough 44 44 50 48 40 46 53 REFUSED 2 1 1 2 1 2 1 17. Is your opinion of - Linda McMahon favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 43% 69% 20% 49% 42% 44% Unfavorable 37 18 56 34 42 33 Hvn't hrd enough 17 11 24 15 14 20 REFUSED 2 2 1 2 1 3 TREND: Is your opinion of Linda McMahon favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Aug 4 Jul 16 Jun 10 May 27 Mar 17 Jan 14 Nov 12 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2009 Favorable 43 43 38 32 36 24 20 Unfavorable 37 37 35 39 26 21 13 Hvn't hrd enough 17 20 25 27 36 54 66 REFUSED 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 18. Is your opinion of - Peter Schiff favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 16% 31% 6% 15% 18% 14% Unfavorable 9 4 12 10 10 8 Hvn't hrd enough 74 64 82 74 71 77 REFUSED 1 2 1 - 1 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Peter Schiff favorable, unfavorable, or haven't you heard enough about him? (*High also 16% Jul 2010) FAVORABLE..... High Low Aug 4 Jul 16 Jun 10 May 27 Mar 17 Aug 4 Sep 17 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010* 2009 Favorable 16 16 15 15 10 16 6 Unfavorable 9 6 5 6 6 9 2 Hvn't hrd enough 74 78 79 78 85 74 92 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 - 1 -
