August 5, 2010 - Connecticut Governor's Primary Races Tighten Up, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Democrats' Lead In November Matchups Tops 13 Points Word format Less than one week before the Connecticut primary, former Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy trails businessman Ned Lamont 45 - 40 percent in the race for the Democratic nomination for governor, according to a Quinnipiac University poll of Democratic likely primary voters released today. This compares to a 46 - 37 percent Lamont lead in a July 15 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. In today's survey, 14 percent are undecided and 43 percent of those who choose a candidate say they might change their mind before the August 10 primary. Among Republican likely primary voters, Lt. Gov. Mike Fedele trails former ambassador Tom Foley 41 - 26 percent, surging from a 48 - 13 percent deficit July 15. Oz Griebel has 13 percent. In this fluid race, 21 percent remain undecided and 62 percent of those who choose a candidate say they might change their mind in the next six days. "Lt. Gov. Mike Fedele is coming on very strong in these final weeks, but it may not be enough to overcome Tom Foley's huge early lead," said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, PhD. "In just three weeks, Fedele has cut Foley's lead from 35 points to 15 points. Foley's negatives have risen, probably due in part to Fedele's TV ads. There is still a lot of voter uncertainty in this race, but with less than a week to go, there isn't much time left for Fedele." "On the Democratic side, Dan Malloy has inched closer to Ned Lamont. Lamont still has the edge, but with 14 percent of voters undecided and 43 percent who still could change their mind, it is close enough that Malloy could pull it off," Dr. Schwartz added. Connecticut Republican likely primary voters give Foley a 43 - 24 percent favorability, compared to 45 - 9 percent July 15. Fedele gets a 34 - 17 percent favorability, with 45 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion. This compares to a 20 - 5 percent favorability July 15, when 73 percent did not know enough about him to form an opinion. These Republican voters say 51 - 23 percent that Foley has a better chance to win in November. Democratic likely primary voters give Lamont a 56 - 18 percent favorability, compared to 60 - 12 percent July 15. Malloy gets a 50 - 12 percent favorability rating, little changed from July 15. These Democratic voters say 46 - 29 percent that Lamont has a better chance to win the general election. Among all Connecticut voters, Lamont and Malloy lead any of the possible Republican candidates by a 13 to 25 percentage point margin, depending on the matchup: Lamont tops Foley 46 - 33 percent; Lamont over Fedele 48 - 33 percent; Lamont beats Griebel 50 - 27 percent; Malloy over Foley 46 - 31 percent; Malloy beats Fedele 47 - 30 percent; Malloy tops Griebel 50 - 25 percent. From July 28 - August 2, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,299 Connecticut registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. Also from July 29 - August 2, Quinnipiac University conducted separate surveys of 1,003 Connecticut Republican likely primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points and 979 Democratic likely primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points. These likely voters were selected from lists of people who have voted in past elections. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. THE FOLLOWING RESULTS ARE BASED ON A POLL OF 1,003 LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS 1REP. If the Republican primary for Governor were being held today, would you vote for Tom Foley, Mike Fedele, or Oz Griebel? (If undecided q1REP) As of today, would you say that you lean a little more toward Foley, Fedele, or Griebel? (This table includes "Leaners".) LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Foley 41% 44% 37% Fedele 26 25 27 Griebel 13 13 13 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 21 18 23 TREND: If the Republican primary for Governor were being held today, would you vote for Tom Foley, Mike Fedele, or Oz Griebel? (If undecided) As of today, would you say that you lean a little more toward Foley, Fedele, or Griebel? (This table includes "Leaners".) LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Aug 5 Jul 15 2010 2010 Foley 41 48 Fedele 26 13 Griebel 13 7 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - DK/NA 21 32 1aREP. (If express choice q1REP) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS CHOSE CANDIDATE Q1REP... CAND CHOICE Q1REP Tot TF MF OG Made up 37% 32% 40% 45% Might change 62 66 59 55 DK/NA 1 2 1 - TREND: (If express choice) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS CHOSE CANDIDATE Q1REP Aug 5 Jul 15 2010 2010 Made up 37 25 Might change 62 73 DK/NA 1 2 2REP. Is your opinion of - Tom Foley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Favorable 43% 50% 37% Unfavorable 24 21 26 Hvn't hrd enough 29 28 31 REFUSED 4 2 6 TREND: Is your opinion of Tom Foley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Aug 5 Jul 15 2010 2010 Favorable 43 45 Unfavorable 24 9 Hvn't hrd enough 29 42 REFUSED 4 4 3REP. Is your opinion of - Mike Fedele favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Favorable 34% 37% 32% Unfavorable 17 17 17 Hvn't hrd enough 45 44 47 REFUSED 3 2 4 TREND: Is your opinion of Mike Fedele favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Aug 5 Jul 15 2010 2010 Favorable 34 20 Unfavorable 17 5 Hvn't hrd enough 45 73 REFUSED 3 2 4REP. Is your opinion of - Oz Griebel favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Favorable 19% 21% 17% Unfavorable 5 5 4 Hvn't hrd enough 75 72 77 REFUSED 2 1 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Oz Griebel favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Aug 5 Jul 15 2010 2010 Favorable 19 13 Unfavorable 5 5 Hvn't hrd enough 75 81 REFUSED 2 2 9REP. Which of the following is most important to you in deciding whom to support in the Republican primary for Governor - a candidate's personality and character, a candidate's positions on key issues, a candidate's experience and qualifications or a candidate's ability to win the general election in November? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Personality 7% 6% 7% Pos on issues 53 53 53 Experience 28 26 31 Ability to win 8 12 4 DK/NA 4 3 4 10REP. Which Republican candidate do you think - has the personality and character best suited to being Governor Tom Foley, Mike Fedele or Oz Griebel? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Foley 37% 41% 33% Fedele 26 26 26 Griebel 12 12 12 DK/NA 25 22 28 11REP. Which of the Republican candidates do you think - is most qualified to be Governor Tom Foley, Mike Fedele or Oz Griebel? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Foley 38% 43% 33% Fedele 28 28 28 Griebel 9 10 8 DK/NA 25 19 30 12REP. Which Repubican candidate's - positions on key issues do you agree with most Tom Foley, Mike Fedele or Oz Griebel? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Foley 37% 42% 31% Fedele 26 25 27 Griebel 11 12 10 DK/NA 27 21 32 13REP. Which Republican candidate's - position on the economy and jobs do you agree with most Tom Foley, Mike Fedele or Oz Griebel? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Foley 38% 43% 34% Fedele 24 23 25 Griebel 11 13 9 DK/NA 27 21 32 14REP. Which Republican candidate for Governor - do you think would be best able to win the general election in November Tom Foley, Mike Fedele or Oz Griebel? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Foley 51% 57% 45% Fedele 23 22 23 Griebel 3 3 3 DK/NA 23 17 28 15REP. If Tom Foley wins the Republican primary for Governor, how likely are you to support him in the general election in November - definitely, probably, maybe, or will you not support him? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Definitely 47% 54% 41% Probably 21 20 22 Maybe 15 13 16 Will not support 12 9 15 DK/NA 5 4 6 CAND CHOICE Q1REP MF OG Definitely 33% 38% Probably 22 23 Maybe 22 19 Will not support 22 18 DK/NA 2 2 16REP. If Mike Fedele wins the Republican primary for Governor, how likely are you to support him in the general election in November - definitely, probably, maybe, or will you not support him? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Definitely 48% 51% 44% Probably 20 21 20 Maybe 18 18 18 Will not support 9 6 11 DK/NA 5 4 6 CAND CHOICE Q1REP TF OG Definitely 42% 35% Probably 25 26 Maybe 20 23 Will not support 11 15 DK/NA 3 1 17REP. If Oz Griebel wins the Republican primary for Governor, how likely are you to support him in the general election in November - definitely, probably, maybe, or will you not support him? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Definitely 40% 46% 35% Probably 19 20 19 Maybe 21 19 24 Will not support 11 11 12 DK/NA 8 5 11 CAND CHOICE Q1REP TF MF Definitely 40% 34% Probably 22 22 Maybe 24 25 Will not support 10 14 DK/NA 4 5 THE FOLLOWING RESULTS ARE BASED ON A POLL OF 979 LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS 1DEM. If the Democratic primary for Governor were being held today, would you vote for Dan Malloy or Ned Lamont? (If undecided q1DEM) As of today, would you say that you lean a little more toward Malloy or Lamont? (This table includes "Leaners".) LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Malloy 40% 43% 38% Lamont 45 45 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 14 11 17 TREND: If the Democratic primary for Governor were being held today, would you vote for Dan Malloy or Ned Lamont? (If undecided) As of today, would you say that you lean a little more toward Malloy or Lamont? (This table includes "Leaners".) LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Aug 5 Jul 15 2010 2010 Malloy 40 37 Lamont 45 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - DK/NA 14 16 1aDEM. (If express choice q1DEM) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS CHOSE CANDIDATE Q1DEM... CAND CHOICE Q1DEM Tot DM NL Made up 55% 55% 55% Might change 43 43 44 DK/NA 2 2 2 TREND: (If express choice) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS CAND CHOICE GIVEN Aug 5 Jul 15 2010 2010 Made up 55 49 Might change 43 50 DK/NA 2 1 2DEM. Is your opinion of - Dan Malloy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Favorable 50% 53% 48% Unfavorable 12 10 13 Hvn't hrd enough 34 36 34 REFUSED 4 2 5 TREND: Is your opinion of Dan Malloy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Aug 5 Jul 15 2010 2010 Favorable 50 50 Unfavorable 12 8 Hvn't hrd enough 34 40 REFUSED 4 2 3DEM. Is your opinion of - Ned Lamont favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Favorable 56% 58% 55% Unfavorable 18 17 18 Hvn't hrd enough 22 21 23 REFUSED 4 4 4 TREND: Is your opinion of Ned Lamont favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Aug 5 Jul 15 2010 2010 Favorable 56 60 Unfavorable 18 12 Hvn't hrd enough 22 25 REFUSED 4 3 4DEM. Which of the following is most important to you in deciding whom to support in the Democratic primary for Governor - a candidate's personality and character, a candidate's positions on key issues, a candidate's experience and qualifications or a candidate's ability to win the general election in November? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Personality 7% 8% 7% Pos on issues 50 45 54 Experience 30 33 28 Ability to win 9 10 8 DK/NA 4 4 3 5DEM. Which Democratic candidate for Governor do you think - has the personality and character best suited to being Governor Ned Lamont or Dan Malloy? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Lamont 38% 38% 37% Malloy 36 38 35 DK/NA 26 24 28 6DEM. Which Democratic candidate do you think - is better qualified to be Governor Ned Lamont or Dan Malloy? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Lamont 36% 36% 36% Malloy 39 42 36 DK/NA 25 22 28 7DEM. Which Democratic candidate's - positions on key issues do you agree with more Ned Lamont or Dan Malloy? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Lamont 39% 39% 39% Malloy 33 37 31 DK/NA 28 24 30 8DEM. Which Democratic candidate's - position on the economy and jobs do you agree with more Ned Lamont or Dan Malloy? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Lamont 39% 39% 39% Malloy 33 38 30 DK/NA 28 23 31 9DEM. Which Democratic candidate for Governor - do you think would be better able to win the general election in November Ned Lamont or Dan Malloy? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Lamont 46% 48% 44% Malloy 29 32 27 DK/NA 25 20 28 10DEM. If Dan Malloy wins the Democratic primary for Governor, how likely are you to support him in the general election in November - definitely, probably, maybe, or will you not support him? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Definitely 53% 55% 52% Probably 21 21 21 Maybe 16 16 16 Will not support 6 6 5 DK/NA 4 3 5 LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS CHOSE CANDIDATE Q1DEM CAND CHOICE Q1DEM DM NL Definitely 71% 48% Probably 17 24 Maybe 9 18 Will not support 1 7 DK/NA 2 3 11DEM. If Ned Lamont wins the Democratic primary for Governor, how likely are you to support him in the general election in November - definitely, probably, maybe, or will you not support him? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Definitely 52% 53% 51% Probably 20 20 20 Maybe 18 17 18 Will not support 7 7 6 DK/NA 4 3 5 LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS CHOSE CANDIDATE Q1DEM CAND CHOICE Q1DEM DM NL Definitely 36% 75% Probably 23 16 Maybe 25 7 Will not support 12 1 DK/NA 4 1 THE FOLLOWING RESULTS ARE BASED ON A POLL OF 1,299 REGISTERED VOTERS 1. If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Ned Lamont the Democrat and Tom Foley the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Lamont 46% 12% 81% 38% 43% 49% Foley 33 77 6 31 40 27 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 2 4 2 4 DK/NA 17 10 11 25 14 19 TREND: If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ned Lamont the Democrat and Tom Foley the Republican, for whom would you vote? Aug 5 Jul 15 Jan 21 2010 2010 2010 Lamont 46 45 38 Foley 33 33 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 3 DK/NA 17 17 21 2. If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Ned Lamont the Democrat and Mike Fedele the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Lamont 48% 14% 84% 40% 46% 50% Fedele 33 77 5 30 37 29 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 3 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 2 5 2 5 DK/NA 14 8 9 22 13 16 TREND: If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ned Lamont the Democrat and Mike Fedele the Republican, for whom would you vote? Aug 5 Jul 15 Jan 21 2010 2010 2010 Lamont 48 49 41 Fedele 33 27 32 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 3 DK/NA 14 19 23 3. If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Ned Lamont the Democrat and Oz Griebel the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Lamont 50% 16% 84% 43% 47% 52% Griebel 27 68 2 23 34 21 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 2 3 5 3 5 DK/NA 19 13 11 29 16 21 TREND: If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Ned Lamont the Democrat and Oz Griebel the Republican, for whom would you vote? Aug 5 Jul 15 2010 2010 Lamont 50 49 Griebel 27 25 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 DK/NA 19 21 4. If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Dan Malloy the Democrat and Tom Foley the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Malloy 46% 13% 80% 38% 44% 47% Foley 31 72 4 29 36 26 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 2 4 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 2 2 6 4 4 DK/NA 16 12 12 23 14 19 TREND: If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Dan Malloy the Democrat and Tom Foley the Republican, for whom would you vote? Aug 5 Jul 15 Jan 21 2010 2010 2010 Malloy 46 44 37 Foley 31 33 33 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 4 DK/NA 16 19 24 5. If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Dan Malloy the Democrat and Mike Fedele the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Malloy 47% 12% 82% 37% 46% 47% Fedele 30 72 4 28 33 27 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 2 3 6 4 5 DK/NA 18 14 10 27 15 20 TREND: If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Dan Malloy the Democrat and Mike Fedele the Republican, for whom would you vote? Aug 5 Jul 15 Jan 21 2010 2010 2010 Malloy 47 49 37 Fedele 30 26 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 3 3 DK/NA 18 20 27 6. If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Dan Malloy the Democrat and Oz Griebel the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Malloy 50% 15% 85% 44% 49% 52% Griebel 25 65 1 21 30 20 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 3 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 4 2 6 4 5 DK/NA 18 15 11 26 16 20 TREND: If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Dan Malloy the Democrat and Oz Griebel the Republican, for whom would you vote? Aug 5 Jul 15 2010 2010 Malloy 50 51 Griebel 25 25 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 3 DK/NA 18 21 7. Is your opinion of - Ned Lamont favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 45% 23% 67% 40% 46% 45% Unfavorable 29 53 14 28 35 25 Hvn't hrd enough 24 22 18 29 18 29 REFUSED 2 2 1 3 1 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Ned Lamont favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Aug 5 Jan 21 Nov 10 2010 2010 2009 Favorable 45 35 31 Unfavorable 29 21 24 Hvn't hrd enough 24 42 43 REFUSED 2 2 1 8. Is your opinion of - Dan Malloy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 40% 25% 54% 38% 39% 40% Unfavorable 15 22 6 18 17 12 Hvn't hrd enough 44 51 38 42 42 45 REFUSED 2 1 2 2 2 3 TREND: Is your opinion of Dan Malloy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Aug 5 Jan 21 Nov 10 Feb 10 2010 2010 2009 2009 Favorable 40 32 21 19 Unfavorable 15 7 10 11 Hvn't hrd enough 44 59 67 69 REFUSED 2 2 2 1 9. Is your opinion of - Tom Foley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 25% 47% 9% 26% 28% 22% Unfavorable 24 14 32 24 25 24 Hvn't hrd enough 48 38 54 47 44 51 REFUSED 3 1 4 3 3 3 TREND: Is your opinion of Tom Foley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Aug 5 Jan 21 Nov 12 Sep 17 Jul 23 Apr 2 2010 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 Favorable 25 31 20 12 17 12 Unfavorable 24 6 6 6 5 6 Hvn't hrd enough 48 62 74 81 77 80 REFUSED 3 1 - 1 1 1 10. Is your opinion of - Mike Fedele favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 20% 34% 9% 21% 19% 20% Unfavorable 18 10 26 16 21 15 Hvn't hrd enough 60 55 61 63 58 62 REFUSED 2 1 4 1 2 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Mike Fedele favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Aug 5 Jan 21 2010 2010 Favorable 20 16 Unfavorable 18 5 Hvn't hrd enough 60 78 REFUSED 2 1 11. Is your opinion of - Oz Griebel favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 9% 13% 4% 9% 12% 6% Unfavorable 7 4 9 8 9 6 Hvn't hrd enough 83 82 86 82 78 87 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Oz Griebel favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Aug 5 Jan 21 2010 2010 Favorable 9 2 Unfavorable 7 1 Hvn't hrd enough 83 96 REFUSED 1 1
