September 14, 2010 - Blumenthal Up Just 6 Points In Connecticut Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Much McMahon Support Is Anti-Blumenthal Word format Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, the Democrat, leads Republican former wrestling executive Linda McMahon 51 - 45 percent among likely voters in the U.S. Senate race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Another 3 percent are undecided and 11 percent of those who do name a candidate say they could change their mind by Election Day. This is the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe- ack) University's first general election likely voter survey in Connecticut in this election cycle and can not be compared to earlier surveys of registered voters. In today's survey, conducted by telephone with live interviewers, Blumenthal leads 87 - 10 percent among Democrats and gets 47 percent of independent voters to McMahon's 46 percent. McMahon leads 91 - 9 percent among Republicans. Women back Blumenthal 56 - 41 percent, while men split 47 - 48 percent. Among those backing McMahon, 42 percent say their vote is mainly against Blumenthal, while 53 percent say they mainly are pro-McMahon. Blumenthal backers are 22 percent anti- McMahon and 73 percent pro-Blumenthal. "This is now a 6 point race among likely voters. With seven weeks to go and lots of money to be spent, anything can happen," said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, PhD. "For Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, an elected official with a 70 percent approval rating, this race is surprisingly close. It is not that voters are wild about McMahon; her favorability rating is tepid. And many of her supporters are more anti-Blumenthal." "The question is whether Linda McMahon can ride the anti-establishment, anti-Democratic wave to victory in blue Connecticut, a state that hasn't voted for a Republican for Senator since Lowell Weicker in 1982," Dr. Schwartz added. "President Barack Obama appears to be a drag on Blumenthal, even in Connecticut, where the President's job approval rating is a negative 45 - 52 percent. "McMahon would be Connecticut's first female Senator. But it is Blumenthal's advantage among women that is making the difference in the race. While men have a mixed opinion of both candidates, women are divided on McMahon but love Blumenthal by a more than 2-1 margin. It may be because women are less likely than men to be turned off by Blumenthal's Vietnam misstatements, and more likely to be turned off by McMahon's wrestling background." Only 45 percent of Connecticut likely voters say Blumenthal can bring needed change to Washington, with 48 percent saying he can't bring change. But McMahon gets exactly the same numbers. Blumenthal leads McMahon on most other measures in the survey, as voters say: 72 - 25 percent that Blumenthal has the right experience to be a U.S Senator; 56 - 39 percent that McMahon does not have the right experience; 57 - 36 percent that he is honest and trustworthy; 58 - 29 percent that she is honest and trustworthy; 55 - 38 percent that Blumenthal shares their values; 49 - 42 percent that McMahon shares their values. Connecticut voters say 37 - 1 percent that Blumenthal's statements about his Vietnam War service make them less likely to vote for him, as 60 percent say they don't make a difference. McMahon's experience as CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment leaves voters 33 - 20 percent less likely to vote for her, while 47 percent say it doesn't make a difference. By a 55 - 39 percent margin, voters have a favorable opinion of Blumenthal, compared to a 45 - 41 percent favorability for McMahon. The economy and jobs are the main issues in deciding how they will vote, 55 percent of voters say, followed by 11 percent who list health care, 10 percent who cite the federal deficit and 6 percent who say education. Only 4 percent list illegal immigration and 2 percent say Afghanistan. From September 8 - 12, Quinnipiac University surveyed 875 Connecticut likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 6. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Richard Blumenthal the Democrat and Linda McMahon the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q6) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Blumenthal or McMahon? This table includes Leaners. LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Blumenthal 51% 9% 87% 47% 47% 56% McMahon 45 91 10 46 48 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 3 - 2 5 3 3 6a. (If express choice q6) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY................. CAND CHOICE Q6.. Tot RB LM Made up 89% 90% 88% Might change 11 10 12 DK/NA - - - 7. (If voting for Blumenthal) Is your vote for Senator mainly for Blumenthal or against McMahon? (*subgroup not large enough to report) LIKELY BLUMENTHAL VOTERS Q6........... Tot Rep* Dem Ind Men Wom For Blumenthal 73% 79% 67% 73% 73% Against McMahon 22 18 25 20 23 DK/NA 5 3 8 7 4 8. (If voting for McMahon) Is your vote for Senator mainly for McMahon or against Blumenthal? (*subgroup not large enough to report) LIKELY McMAHON VOTERS Q6.............. Tot Rep Dem* Ind Men Wom For McMahon 53% 57% 50% 46% 61% Against Blumenthal 42 39 44 48 33 DK/NA 6 3 5 6 6 9. Is your opinion of - Richard Blumenthal favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 55% 15% 86% 54% 48% 64% Unfavorable 39 81 9 38 47 30 Hvn't hrd enough 4 3 4 6 5 4 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 1 2 10. Is your opinion of - Linda McMahon favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 45% 80% 18% 47% 46% 45% Unfavorable 41 10 65 39 39 43 Hvn't hrd enough 13 10 16 14 15 11 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 - 1 11. Which one of these issues matter most in deciding how you vote for United States Senator - Illegal immigration, the war in Afghanistan, the issue of terrorism, the economy and jobs, the federal budget deficit, education, health care or energy and environmental policies? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Ill immmigration 4% 8% - 4% 5% 3% Afghanistan 2 - 2 3 2 2 Terrorism 1 2 1 1 1 1 Economy and jobs 55 52 59 55 55 56 Fed deficit 10 18 2 12 11 9 Education 6 1 10 7 7 6 Health care 11 12 11 9 9 13 Energy and envir 3 1 5 4 4 3 DK/NA 7 7 10 5 7 8 12. Which one of these four qualities matter most in deciding how you vote for United States Senator - The candidate is honest and trustworthy, has the right experience, can bring about needed change to Washington or shares your values? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Trustworthy 25% 24% 21% 30% 26% 24% Experience 22 4 33 25 19 26 Change 25 40 15 24 24 26 Shares values 25 28 29 19 28 21 DK/NA 3 5 2 2 3 3 13. Do you think Richard Blumenthal has the right kind of experience to be a United States Senator from Connecticut or not? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 72% 48% 93% 70% 66% 79% No 25 48 5 27 31 19 DK/NA 3 4 2 3 3 3 14. Would you say that Richard Blumenthal is honest and trustworthy or not? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 57% 23% 85% 55% 51% 63% No 36 70 10 36 42 28 DK/NA 8 7 6 9 7 8 15. Would you say that Richard Blumenthal shares your values or not? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 55% 18% 86% 52% 47% 63% No 38 76 9 38 46 28 DK/NA 7 6 6 10 7 8 16. Do you think Richard Blumenthal can bring about needed change to Washington or not? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 45% 12% 74% 42% 35% 57% No 48 83 19 51 58 37 DK/NA 6 5 7 6 7 6 17. Do you think Linda McMahon has the right kind of experience to be a United States Senator from Connecticut or not? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 39% 72% 15% 38% 41% 37% No 56 25 80 55 56 56 DK/NA 5 4 5 6 3 7 18. Would you say that Linda McMahon is honest and trustworthy or not? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 58% 83% 37% 60% 58% 58% No 29 9 43 29 29 29 DK/NA 13 9 19 11 13 13 19. Would you say that Linda McMahon shares your values or not? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 49% 86% 22% 49% 51% 46% No 42 11 68 39 42 42 DK/NA 9 4 10 12 7 12 20. Do you think Linda McMahon can bring about needed change to Washington or not? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 45% 83% 20% 43% 46% 44% No 48 15 72 49 49 47 DK/NA 7 2 9 8 5 9 21. Does the controversy about Richard Blumenthal's statements regarding his military service during the Vietnam war make you more likely to vote for him in the November general election, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom More likely 1% -% 2% 1% 2% 1% Less likely 37 70 10 39 44 29 Doesn't make diff 60 28 87 57 52 69 DK/NA 2 1 1 3 2 1 22. Does Linda McMahon's experience as CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment make you more likely to vote for her for United States Senator, less likely or doesn't it make a difference? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom More likely 20% 38% 3% 22% 24% 14% Less likely 33 12 46 34 28 38 Doesn't make diff 47 50 49 43 48 46 DK/NA 1 1 2 - - 2 23. Is one reason for your vote for U.S. Senate - to express support for Barack Obama, or express opposition to Barack Obama or is Barack Obama not a factor? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Support 16% - 35% 11% 15% 18% Oppose 33 75 2 34 34 32 Not a factor 49 24 60 55 49 49 DK/NA 1 - 3 - 1 1 24. Would you prefer to have the Democrats or the Republicans control the U.S Senate next year, or doesn't it matter to you? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Democrats 39% 3% 82% 23% 37% 40% Republicans 40 90 5 39 43 36 Doesn't matter 19 6 11 36 18 21 DK/NA 2 1 2 2 2 2 36. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Richard Blumenthal is handling his job as State Attorney General? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 70% 46% 93% 67% 64% 78% Disapprove 26 50 6 28 33 18 DK/NA 4 4 2 5 3 4 37. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 45% 8% 81% 38% 43% 48% Disapprove 52 91 16 58 55 48 DK/NA 3 1 3 4 3 3 40. How worried are you about the direction of the nation's economy in the next year? Would you say you are very worried, somewhat worried, not too worried, or not worried at all? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Very worried 54% 77% 36% 54% 52% 56% Smwht worried 37 21 49 37 36 38 Not too worried 7 2 11 8 10 4 Not worried at all 2 - 3 2 2 1 DK/NA 1 - 2 - 1 - 41. Which comes closer to your view: Government should do more to solve problems or Government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Shld do more 36% 5% 67% 29% 33% 40% Doing too much 56 90 23 63 59 53 DK/NA 8 5 10 8 8 7 42. Do you consider yourself part of the Tea party movement or not? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 17% 37% 4% 15% 18% 16% No 80 60 92 84 81 80 DK/NA 2 3 4 1 1 5
