September 15, 2010 - Malloy Leads Foley In Connecticut Governor's Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; More See Democrat As Candidate Of Change Word format Fueled by the Democrats' big voter registration lead, former Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy leads former ambassador Tom Foley, the Republican, 50 - 41 percent among likely voters in the Connecticut Governor's race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. But 8 percent are undecided and 26 percent of those who do name a candidate say they could change their mind by Election Day. This is the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University's first general election likely voter survey in Connecticut in this election cycle and can not be compared to earlier surveys of registered voters. In today's survey, conducted by telephone with live interviewers, Malloy leads 86 - 8 percent among Democrats, while Foley leads 83 - 14 percent among Republicans. Independent voters split 42 - 42 percent. Malloy leads 53 - 38 percent among women and 48 - 43 percent among men. Among those backing Malloy, 17 percent say their vote is mainly against Foley, while 72 percent say they mainly are pro-Malloy. Foley backers are 28 percent anti-Malloy and 60 percent pro-Foley. "The races for Governor and U.S. Senate in Connecticut are both in play, with the Democrats holding on to single-digits leads," said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, PhD. "The big difference between the Governor's race and the Senate race is that the gubernatorial candidates are much less well-known than the Senate candidates. Tom Foley and Dan Malloy will have a tough time competing for attention with Linda McMahon and Attorney General Richard Blumenthal." "As the trailing candidate, getting more attention is especially important for Foley," Dr. Schwartz added. "Key to deciding the Governor's race are independent voters, especially the 16 percent of independents who are undecided right now." Connecticut voters have a 46 - 21 percent favorable opinion of Malloy, with 30 percent who haven't heard enough about him to form an opinion. Foley gets a 34 - 24 percent favorability, with 39 percent who haven't formed an opinion. "Change" is the top quality voters want in their next Governor as 32 percent say bringing "needed change to Hartford" is the quality that matters most in their vote. Another 23 percent want a candidate who shares their values, followed by 21 percent looking for experience and 20 looking for a candidate who is honest and trustworthy. Malloy leads on all counts as voters say: 51 - 33 percent that Malloy can bring needed change to Hartford; 43 - 36 percent that Foley can bring change; 66 - 19 percent that Malloy has the right experience to be Governor; 53 - 26 percent that Foley has the right experience; 58 - 16 percent that Malloy is honest and trustworthy; 51 - 21 percent that Foley is honest and trustworthy; 51 - 30 percent that Malloy shares their values; 42 - 33 percent that Foley shares their values. From September 8 - 12, Quinnipiac University surveyed 875 Connecticut likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Dan Malloy the Democrat and Tom Foley the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Malloy or Foley? This table includes "Leaners". LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Malloy 50% 14% 86% 42% 48% 53% Foley 41 83 8 42 43 38 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 8 3 5 15 8 9 1a. (If express choice q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY............... CAND CHOICE Q1 Tot DM TF Made up 74% 73% 75% Might change 26 27 23 DK/NA 1 - 2 2. (If voting for Malloy) Is your vote for Governor mainly for Malloy or against Foley? (*subgroup not large enough to report) LIKELY MALLOY VOTERS Q1............... Tot Rep* Dem Ind Men Wom For Malloy 72% 74% 69% 72% 72% Against Foley 17 18 15 16 19 DK/NA 11 8 16 12 10 3. (If voting for Foley) Is your vote for Governor mainly for Foley or against Malloy? (*subgroup not large enough to report) LIKELY FOLEY VOTERS Q1................ Tot Rep Dem* Ind Men Wom For Foley 60% 71% 51% 61% 59% Against Malloy 28 22 34 28 28 DK/NA 11 6 15 11 12 4. Is your opinion of - Dan Malloy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 46% 22% 67% 44% 44% 49% Unfavorable 21 41 7 21 25 17 Hvn't hrd enough 30 33 25 33 28 32 REFUSED 3 4 1 3 3 2 5. Is your opinion of - Tom Foley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 34% 62% 18% 31% 37% 32% Unfavorable 24 8 39 22 26 23 Hvn't hrd enough 39 28 41 45 36 43 REFUSED 2 2 3 2 2 2 DK/NA 5 3 8 7 4 25. Which one of these five issues matter most in deciding how you vote for Governor - The economy and jobs, The state budget deficit, Taxes, Health Care or Education? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Economy and jobs 55% 45% 58% 59% 50% 61% State deficit 16 24 13 14 20 13 Taxes 12 22 5 12 16 8 Health Care 6 4 5 9 5 7 Education 6 2 13 3 7 6 DK/NA 3 3 6 2 3 4 26. Which one of these four qualities matter most in deciding how you vote for Governor? The candidate is honest and trustworthy, has the right experience, can bring about needed change to Hartford or shares your values? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Trustworthy 20% 20% 15% 25% 20% 20% Experience 21 14 26 21 22 20 Change 32 34 30 33 29 36 Shares values 23 29 24 18 28 17 DK/NA 4 3 6 4 2 7 27. Do you think Dan Malloy has the right kind of experience to be Governor of Connecticut or not? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 66% 50% 83% 61% 68% 64% No 19 32 6 21 22 15 DK/NA 15 18 10 18 11 21 28. Would you say that Dan Malloy is honest and trustworthy or not? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 58% 39% 72% 57% 57% 58% No 16 30 6 17 20 13 DK/NA 26 31 22 26 23 29 29. Would you say that Dan Malloy shares your values or not? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 51% 24% 75% 48% 50% 52% No 30 57 9 30 35 23 DK/NA 19 19 16 22 15 24 30. Do you think Dan Malloy can bring about needed change to Hartford or not? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 51% 25% 75% 47% 48% 55% No 33 58 11 36 40 26 DK/NA 16 17 14 16 12 19 31. Do you think Tom Foley has the right kind of experience to be Governor of Connecticut or not? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 53% 77% 36% 53% 61% 44% No 26 11 37 26 23 29 DK/NA 21 12 27 21 16 26 32. Would you say that Tom Foley is honest and trustworthy or not? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 51% 69% 37% 51% 55% 45% No 21 12 27 22 24 18 DK/NA 28 19 36 27 21 36 33. Would you say that Tom Foley shares your values or not? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 42% 72% 19% 42% 44% 39% No 33 10 51 32 35 31 DK/NA 25 18 30 26 21 31 34. Do you think Tom Foley can bring about needed change to Hartford or not? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 43% 69% 22% 46% 46% 41% No 36 17 51 35 39 33 DK/NA 21 14 26 20 15 27 35. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jodi Rell is handling her job as Governor? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 58% 75% 47% 58% 57% 60% Disapprove 35 23 45 33 39 30 DK/NA 7 2 8 9 4 10 38. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Connecticut today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Very satisfied 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 2% Smwht satisfied 29 20 41 23 29 29 Smwht dissatisfied 44 43 45 45 44 45 Very dissatisfied 26 36 14 30 27 24 DK/NA - - - - - - 39. Would you describe the state of Connecticut's economy these days as excellent, good, not so good, or poor? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Excellent - - - - - - Good 15 12 19 13 15 15 Not so good 52 45 57 52 50 54 Poor 32 41 22 35 34 30 DK/NA 1 1 1 - - 1 6 2
