September 28, 2010 - Angry Voters Push McMahon Closer In Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Connecticut Poll Finds; But Most Voters Say Her Ads Are Annoying Word format Propelled by Connecticut likely voters who say they are "angry" with government, former wrestling executive Linda McMahon, the Republican U.S. Senate candidate, is closing in on Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, the Democrat, and now trails just 49 - 46 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This compares to a 51 - 45 percent Blumenthal lead in a September 14 likely voter survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll, conducted by live interviewers. In today's survey, 4 percent are undecided and 9 percent of voters who name a candidate say they could change their mind by Election Day. Blumenthal leads 89 - 9 percent among Democrats. McMahon leads 80 - 16 percent among Republicans. Independent voters shift from 47 - 46 percent for Blumenthal September 14 to 49 - 44 percent for McMahon today. In a gender reversal, women back Blumenthal 56 - 39 percent while men back McMahon 52 - 44 percent. The 33 percent of likely voters who say they are "angry" with the federal government support McMahon 78 - 20 percent. "With five weeks to go, the Connecticut Senate race is very close. Attorney General Richard Blumenthal is ahead by only a statistically insignificant 3 points. Blumenthal has to be concerned about Linda McMahon's momentum. He can hear her footsteps as she closes in on him," said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, PhD. "McMahon clearly is capitalizing on the anger that one-third of voters are feeling toward the federal government." Quinnipiac University Poll/September 28, 2010 - page 2 "But McMahon has to be concerned that voters are still divided on her," Dr. Schwartz added. "There continues to be a big gender gap, as we've seen in other states such a New York and Pennsylvania. Women are going with the Democrat and men are siding with the Republican. "Usually debates don't make much of a difference, but in a race this close next month's debates could be a game changer." Connecticut likely voters approve 68 - 29 percent of the job Blumenthal is doing as attorney general and have a 51 - 41 percent favorable opinion of him. McMahon gets a split 42 - 43 percent favorability. Connecticut likely voters disapprove 51 - 45 percent of the job President Barack Obama is doing. Offered four choices to describe their feelings about the federal government: 2 percent say enthusiastic; 21 percent say satisfied; 43 percent say dissatisfied; 33 percent say angry. Of the 95 percent of Connecticut likely voters who have seen McMahon TV ads, 56 percent find them annoying and 40 percent find them informative. Among all voters, 54 percent say McMahon's TV, radio and direct mail advertising is excessive, while 37 percent say it is about right. Of the 87 percent who have seen Blumenthal TV ads, 54 percent find them informative and 42 percent find them annoying. Blumenthal's advertising has been about right, 49 percent say, while 33 percent say he hasn't advertised enough and 11 percent call it excessive. "Linda McMahon has spent about $22 million on her campaign, but is it overkill? A majority of voters say that it has been excessive. In contrast, many Democrats feel that Blumenthal hasn't been doing enough on the advertising front," Schwartz said. "As McMahon has flooded the airwaves, many voters are saying, 'Enough already!'" From September 21 - 26, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,083 Connecticut likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582- 5201, or follow us on Twitter. 6. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Richard Blumenthal the Democrat and Linda McMahon the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Blumenthal or McMahon? This table includes "Leaners". LIKELY VOTERS........................................ Angry with Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Fed GovQ32 Blumenthal 49% 16% 89% 44% 44% 56% 20% McMahon 46 80 9 49 52 39 78 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 4 4 1 6 4 4 1 TREND: If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Richard Blumenthal the Democrat and Linda McMahon the Republican, for whom would you vote? LIKELY VOTERS.. Sep 28 Sep 14 2010 2010 Blumenthal 49 51 McMahon 46 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - DK/NA 4 3 6a. (If candidate choice q6) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS........ CAND CHOICE Q6 Tot RB LM Made up 91% 91% 90% Might change 9 9 9 DK/NA - - - TREND: (If candidate choice) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS.. CAND CHOICE Q6.. Sep 28 Sep 14 2010 2010 Made up 91 89 Might change 9 11 DK/NA - 7. (If Blumenthal voter) Is your vote for Senator mainly for Blumenthal or against McMahon? (*Subgroup not large enough to report) LIKELY BLUMENTHAL VOTERS.............. Tot *Rep Dem Ind Men Wom For Blumenthal 75% 79% 66% 74% 75% Against McMahon 21 16 33 22 20 DK/NA 4 5 2 4 4 TREND:(If voting for Blumenthal) Is your vote for Senator mainly for Blumenthal or against McMahon? (*subgroup not large enough to report) LIKELY VOTERS.. Sep 28 Sep 14 2010 2010 For Blumenthal 75 73% Against McMahon 21 22 DK/NA 4 5 8. (If McMahon voter) Is your vote for Senator mainly for McMahon or against Blumenthal? (*Subgroup not large enough to report) LIKELY McMAHON VOTERS................. Tot Rep *Dem Ind Men Wom For McMahon 52% 58% 49% 47% 58% Against Blumenthal 44 38 47 50 34 DK/NA 5 5 5 3 7 TREND: (If voting for McMahon) Is your vote for Senator mainly for McMahon or against Blumenthal? (*subgroup not large enough to report) LIKELY VOTERS.. Sep 28 Sep 14 2010 2010 For McMahon 52 53 Against Blumenthal 44 42 DK/NA 5 6 9. Is your opinion of - Richard Blumenthal favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 51% 22% 85% 46% 44% 58% Unfavorable 41 71 8 45 47 34 Hvn't hrd enough 6 4 6 5 7 5 REFUSED 2 2 - 4 2 3 TREND: Is your opinion of - Richard Blumenthal favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS.. Sep 28 Sep 14 2010 2010 Favorable 51 55 Unfavorable 41 39 Hvn't hrd enough 6 4 REFUSED 2 1 10. Is your opinion of - Linda McMahon favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 42% 76% 13% 43% 46% 38% Unfavorable 43 14 69 46 39 47 Hvn't hrd enough 14 10 18 10 14 14 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 1 1 TREND: Is your opinion of - Linda McMahon favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? LIKELY VOTERS.. Sep 28 Sep 14 2010 2010 Favorable 42 45 Unfavorable 43 41 Hvn't hrd enough 14 13 REFUSED 1 1 11. Have you seen any of Linda McMahon's television advertisements for this year's election for United States Senator? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 95% 98% 95% 95% 96% 95% No 4 2 4 5 4 4 DK/NA - - - - - - 12. (If seen ads) From what you have seen of Linda McMahon's television ads, are they more informative or more annoying? LIKELY VOTERS(HAVE SEEN ADS Q11)...... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Informative 40% 65% 14% 41% 43% 36% Annoying 56 29 84 56 53 60 DK/NA 4 6 2 3 3 4 13. Have you received any mail from Linda McMahon's campaign for United States Senator? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 68% 82% 54% 72% 70% 66% No 28 16 41 24 25 31 DK/NA 4 2 5 5 5 3 14. (If received mail) From what you have seen of Linda McMahon's campaign mailings, are they more informative or more annoying? LIKELY VOTERS(HAVE RECEIVED MAIL Q13). Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Informative 44% 65% 18% 41% 47% 40% Annoying 48 27 76 52 46 52 DK/NA 8 7 7 7 7 8 15. Thinking about the McMahon campaign's amount of advertising on television, radio, and through mail, do you think Linda McMahon's campaign advertising has been excessive, just about right, or not enough? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Excessive 54% 38% 73% 54% 49% 60% About right 37 58 15 36 44 29 Not enough 5 3 7 4 3 7 DK/NA 4 2 4 5 4 4 16. Have you seen any of Richard Blumenthal's television advertisements for this year's election for United States Senator? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 87% 89% 86% 89% 87% 88% No 12 10 13 10 13 11 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 17. (If seen ads) From what you have seen of Richard Blumenthal's television ads, are they more informative or more annoying? LIKELY VOTERS(HAVE SEEN ADS Q16)...... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Informative 54% 31% 78% 54% 50% 59% Annoying 42 67 18 41 46 37 DK/NA 4 2 4 5 4 4 18. Have you received any mail from Richard Blumenthal's campaign for United States Senator? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 30% 29% 37% 28% 28% 32% No 64 69 57 63 66 63 DK/NA 6 3 6 9 6 5 19. (If received mail) From what you have seen of Richard Blumenthal's campaign mailings, are they more informative or more annoying? LIKELY VOTERS(HAVE RECEIVED MAIL Q18). Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Informative 57% 39% 77% 49% 57% 56% Annoying 33 50 13 41 31 35 DK/NA 11 11 10 10 12 9 20. Thinking about the Blumenthal campaign's amount of advertising on television, radio, and through mail, do you think Richard Blumenthal's campaign advertising has been excessive, just about right, or not enough? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Excessive 11% 20% 4% 11% 13% 9% About right 49 47 47 51 49 49 Not enough 33 24 45 32 31 35 DK/NA 7 10 4 7 7 7 26. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Richard Blumenthal is handling his job as State Attorney General? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 68% 47% 90% 65% 64% 72% Disapprove 29 49 9 30 33 23 DK/NA 4 4 1 6 3 5 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Richard Blumenthal is handling his job as State Attorney General? LIKELY VOTERS.. Sep 28 Sep 14 2010 2010 Approve 68 70 Disapprove 29 26 DK/NA 4 4 27. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 45% 8% 83% 38% 38% 52% Disapprove 51 90 13 56 57 44 DK/NA 4 2 4 6 5 4 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? LIKELY VOTERS.. Sep 28 Sep 14 2010 2010 Approve 45 45 Disapprove 51 52 DK/NA 4 3 28. Is your opinion of - Bill Clinton favorable, unfavorable, or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 65% 37% 93% 63% 59% 72% Unfavorable 30 58 4 31 35 23 Hvn't hrd enough 2 1 2 3 2 2 REFUSED 3 4 1 4 3 3 29. Is your opinion of - Sarah Palin favorable, unfavorable, or haven't you heard enough about her? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 30% 53% 5% 34% 33% 26% Unfavorable 57 26 91 52 53 63 Hvn't hrd enough 10 18 4 10 11 8 REFUSED 3 3 1 4 3 3 30. Is your opinion of - Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable, or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 49% 9% 89% 43% 42% 56% Unfavorable 48 89 9 51 55 40 Hvn't hrd enough 1 1 1 2 - 2 REFUSED 2 1 1 4 2 2 31. Is your opinion of - the Tea Party movement favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about it? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 37% 66% 6% 41% 43% 30% Unfavorable 37 11 68 33 31 44 Hvn't hrd enough 23 21 26 20 23 24 REFUSED 2 1 - 5 3 2 32. I am going to mention four phrases and ask you which one best describes how you feel about the way the federal government works. Do you feel enthusiastic, satisfied but not enthusiastic, dissatisfied but not angry, or angry? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Enthusiastic 2% - 5% 1% 1% 3% Satisfied 21 7 36 20 19 23 Dissatisfied 43 40 43 42 44 41 Angry 33 52 14 36 35 31 DK/NA 1 - 1 1 1 1
