September 29, 2010 - Foley Closes In On Malloy In Connecticut Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Connecticut Poll Finds; Independent Voters Shift To Republican Word format Fueled by a shift among independent Connecticut likely voters, Republican candidate for governor Tom Foley now has 42 percent to Democrat Dan Malloy's 45 percent, making the race too close to call, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This compares to a 50 - 41 percent Malloy lead in a September 15 likely voter survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll, conducted by live interviewers. In today's survey, 12 percent of likely voters are undecided and 22 percent of voters who name a candidate say they could change their mind by Election Day. Malloy leads 86 - 8 percent among Democrats. Foley leads 82 - 9 percent among Republicans. Independent voters shift from a 42 - 42 percent split September 15 to 44 - 38 percent for Foley today. Women back the Democrat 52 - 34 percent while men back the Republican 49 - 38 percent. Offered four choices to describe their feelings about Connecticut government: 1 percent say enthusiastic; 33 percent say satisfied; 47 percent say dissatisfied; 18 percent say angry. Voters who say they are "angry" with state government support Foley 60 - 29 percent. "Ever since the popular Republican Governor Jodi Rell decided not to seek reelection, Democrats have been very excited about their prospects of winning this open seat in blue Connecticut. Yet despite a bruising primary victory, Republican businessman Tom Foley has made this a very tight race with Democrat Dan Malloy," said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, PhD. Quinnipiac University Poll/September 29, 2010 - page 2 "Like Republican U.S. Senate candidate Linda McMahon, Foley has been capitalizing on the anti-government feeling. Also, both McMahon and Foley have been gaining due to the support of independent voters," Dr. Schwartz added. "Similar to the Senate race, there is a big gender gap with women backing Malloy and men backing Foley. "The last time there was a Connecticut governor's race this tight was 16 years ago when there was an open seat and Republican John Rowland beat Democrat William Curry by just 3 points. "With about a third of voters still persuadable, the upcoming debates could be decisive." Connecticut likely voters have a 39 - 27 percent favorable opinion of Malloy, with 31 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion. Foley gets a 34 - 25 percent favorability, with 36 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion. Despite their dissatisfaction and anger with Connecticut government, likely voters approve 59 - 33 percent of the job Gov. Jodi Rell is doing. The 79 percent of likely voters who have seen Foley's TV ads split 45 - 46 percent on whether they are informative or annoying. Malloy does only slightly better as 80 percent of voters have seen his ads and 49 percent find them informative while 43 percent find them annoying. From September 21 - 26, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,083 Connecticut likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582- 5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Dan Malloy the Democrat and Tom Foley the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Malloy or Foley? This table includes "Leaners". LIKELY VOTERS......................................... Angry with Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom State GovQ33 Malloy 45% 9% 86% 38% 38% 52% 29% Foley 42 82 8 44 49 34 60 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 12 8 5 17 12 12 11 TREND: If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Dan Malloy the Democrat and Tom Foley the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Malloy or Foley? (This table includes Leaners.) LIKELY VOTERS.. Sep 29 Sep 15 2010 2010 Malloy 45 50 Foley 42 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - DK/NA 12 8 1a. (If candidate choice q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS........ CAND CHOICE Q1 Tot DM TF Made up 76% 74% 78% Might change 22 25 20 DK/NA 1 1 2 TREND: (If candidate choice q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS.. Sep 29 Sep 15 2010 2010 Made up 76 74 Might change 22 26 DK/NA 1 1 2. (If Malloy voter) Is your vote for Governor mainly for Malloy or against Foley? (*Subgroup not large enough to report) LIKELY MALLOY VOTERS.................. Tot Rep* Dem Ind Men Wom For Malloy 73% 76% 73% 73% 73% Against Foley 22 20 21 21 23 DK/NA 5 5 5 6 4 TREND: (If Malloy voter) Is your vote for Governor mainly for Malloy or against Foley? (*subgroup not large enough to report) LIKELY MALLOY VOTERS Sep 29 Sep 15 2010 2010 For Malloy 73 72 Against Foley 22 17 DK/NA 5 11 3. (If Foley voter) Is your vote for Governor mainly for Foley or against Malloy? (*Subgroup not large enough to report) LIKELY FOLEY VOTERS................... Tot Rep Dem* Ind Men Wom For Foley 60% 68% 52% 58% 62% Against Malloy 30 21 37 30 30 DK/NA 10 11 11 12 8 TREND: (If Foley voter) Is your vote for Governor mainly for Foley or against Malloy? LIKELY FOLEY VOTERS Sep 29 Sep 15 2010 2010 For Foley 60 60 Against Malloy 30 28 DK/NA 10 11 4. Is your opinion of - Dan Malloy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 39% 17% 67% 34% 32% 47% Unfavorable 27 49 7 28 33 20 Hvn't hrd enough 31 32 24 36 32 31 REFUSED 3 2 2 2 3 2 TREND: Is your opinion of - Dan Malloy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS.. Sep 29 Sep 15 2010 2010 Favorable 39 46 Unfavorable 27 21 Hvn't hrd enough 31 30 REFUSED 3 3 5. Is your opinion of - Tom Foley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 34% 62% 17% 30% 36% 30% Unfavorable 25 12 40 23 23 27 Hvn't hrd enough 36 25 38 42 34 39 REFUSED 6 2 6 4 7 4 TREND: Is your opinion of - Tom Foley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS.. Sep 29 Sep 15 2010 2010 Favorable 34 34 Unfavorable 25 24 Hvn't hrd enough 36 39 REFUSED 6 2 21. Have you seen any of Tom Foley's television advertisements for this year's election for Governor? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 79% 78% 82% 81% 77% 81% No 19 19 16 17 21 17 DK/NA 2 4 2 2 3 2 22. (If seen ads) From what you have seen of Tom Foley's television ads, are they more informative or more annoying? LIKELY VOTERS (HAVE SEEN ADS Q21)...... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Informative 45% 64% 33% 44% 48% 42% Annoying 46 32 59 45 44 49 DK/NA 8 4 8 11 8 9 23. Have you seen any of Dan Malloy's television advertisements for this year's election for governor? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 80% 77% 84% 81% 77% 82% No 18 18 14 18 20 15 DK/NA 2 5 2 1 2 3 24. (If seen ads) From what you have seen of Dan Malloy's television ads, are they more informative or more annoying? LIKELY VOTERS (HAVE SEEN ADS Q23)...... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Informative 49% 41% 61% 44% 50% 47% Annoying 43 53 31 47 41 45 DK/NA 8 6 9 9 9 8 25. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jodi Rell is handling her job as Governor? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 59% 70% 46% 62% 57% 61% Disapprove 33 26 43 30 37 29 DK/NA 7 4 11 8 6 10 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jodi Rell is handling her job as Governor? LIKELY VOTERS.. Sep 29 Sep 15 2010 2010 Approve 59 58 Disapprove 33 35 DK/NA 7 7 33. I am going to mention four phrases and ask you which one best describes how you feel about the way the state government works. Do you feel enthusiastic, satisfied but not enthusiastic, dissatisfied but not angry, or angry? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Enthusiastic 1% 1% - - - 1% Satisfied 33 29 42 28 31 36 Dissatisfied 47 49 42 51 48 46 Angry 18 20 13 20 19 16 DK/NA 1 1 2 1 1
