October 14, 2010 - Blumenthal Opens Up Double-Digit Lead In Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Connecticut Poll Finds; Independent Voters Shift Back To Democrat Word format Reversing a months-long decline in his lead in the Connecticut U.S. Senate race, Democratic State Attorney General Richard Blumenthal has opened up a 54 - 43 percent likely voter lead over Republican former wrestling executive Linda McMahon, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This compares to a 49 - 46 percent Blumenthal lead in a September 28 likely voter survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll. In today's survey, 3 percent are undecided and 7 percent of voters who name a candidate say they could change their mind by Election Day. Blumenthal leads 95 -4 percent among Democrats while McMahon leads 87 - 12 percent among Republicans. Independent voters shift from 49 - 44 percent for McMahon September 28 to 49 - 44 percent for Blumenthal today. Women back Blumenthal 63 - 32 percent while men back McMahon 52 - 46 percent. "After Linda McMahon had climbed to within 3 points of Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, he has stopped her momentum and increased his lead by 8 points in two weeks. While September wasn't very good for Blumenthal, perhaps like Reggie Jackson, he could be called 'Mr. October,'" said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, PhD. "Fueled by a surge in support from women, Democrats and independents, Attorney General Richard Blumenthal has his best poll numbers since the start of the fall campaign." "Linda McMahon may have peaked too soon and her advertising saturation could be causing 'McMahon fatigue.'" "Blumenthal is running stronger among Democrats than McMahon is running among Republicans. He is winning women by an overwhelming 31-point margin, while McMahon has struggled with women throughout the campaign. They have a negative image of her but like him by more than 2-1," Dr. Schwartz added. "With only three weeks left in the campaign, McMahon is down by 11 points with only 3 percent undecided. Even if she won all the undecided, she still would fall short. This has been a very unusual election year, however, so anything is possible." Likely voters approve 69 - 26 percent of the job Blumenthal is doing as attorney general and say 57 - 38 percent they have a favorable opinion of him. McMahon gets a split 46 - 46 percent favorability. First Lady Michelle Obama gets a 56 - 28 percent favorability rating, but only 5 percent of Connecticut likely voters say her campaigning for Blumenthal makes them more likely to vote for him. Another 19 percent say they are less likely and 76 percent say Michelle Obama's involvement won't affect their vote. Connecticut likely voters give President Barack Obama a split 47 - 47 percent job approval rating. From October 7 - 11, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,119 Connecticut likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582- 5201, or follow us on Twitter. 4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Richard Blumenthal the Democrat and Linda McMahon the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Blumenthal or McMahon? (This table includes Leaners) LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Blumenthal 54% 12% 95% 49% 46% 63% McMahon 43 87 4 44 52 32 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 3 1 1 5 2 5 RATING ECONOMY Q13 Better Worse Same Blumenthal 76% 39% 55% McMahon 22 59 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA - 2 4 TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Richard Blumenthal the Democrat and Linda McMahon the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today would you vote for Blumenthal or McMahon? (This table includes Leaners) LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 14 Sep 28 Sep 14 2010 2010 2010 Blumenthal 54 49 51 McMahon 43 46 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 3 4 3 4a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS........ CAND CHOICE Q4 Tot RB LM Made up 92% 91% 93% Might change 7 8 7 DK/NA 1 1 1 5. Is your opinion of - Richard Blumenthal favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 57% 19% 92% 54% 48% 66% Unfavorable 38 75 7 40 47 29 Hvn't hrd enough 3 5 1 5 4 3 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Richard Blumenthal favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 14 Sep 28 Sep 14 2010 2010 2010 Favorable 57 51 55 Unfavorable 38 41 39 Hvn't hrd enough 3 6 4 REFUSED 1 2 1 6. Is your opinion of - Linda McMahon favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 46% 81% 11% 49% 53% 37% Unfavorable 46 11 81 43 39 55 Hvn't hrd enough 6 7 5 7 7 5 REFUSED 2 2 3 - 1 4 TREND: Is your opinion of Linda McMahon favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 14 Sep 28 Sep 14 2010 2010 2010 Favorable 46 42 45 Unfavorable 46 43 41 Hvn't hrd enough 6 14 13 REFUSED 2 1 1 7. Is your opinion of - Michelle Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 56% 24% 85% 54% 50% 63% Unfavorable 28 60 9 24 30 25 Hvn't hrd enough 12 11 4 19 16 8 REFUSED 4 6 2 3 3 5 8. Does Michelle Obama's campaigning for Richard Blumenthal make you more likely to vote for Blumenthal for United States Senator, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom More likely 5% - 9% 4% 4% 6% Less likely 19 42 5 16 21 16 Doesn't make diff 76 58 85 79 75 77 DK/NA 1 - 1 1 1 1 10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Richard Blumenthal is handling his job as State Attorney General? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 69% 37% 94% 71% 63% 76% Disapprove 26 58 4 25 34 18 DK/NA 5 5 2 4 3 6 11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 47% 9% 83% 43% 39% 56% Disapprove 47 87 11 52 56 37 DK/NA 6 4 6 6 5 7 RATING ECONOMY Q13 Better Worse Same Approve 77% 27% 48% Disapprove 18 68 44 DK/NA 5 5 7 12. Would you describe the state of Connecticut's economy these days as excellent, good, not so good, or poor? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Excellent 1% - 2% 0% 0% 1% Good 12 13 14 11 11 14 Not so good 51 42 58 51 51 51 Poor 35 43 25 37 37 33 DK/NA 1 1 2 1 2 1 13. Do you think Connecticut's economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Better 14% 12% 21% 10% 15% 12% Worse 28 31 20 31 27 30 The same 56 54 57 57 57 55 DK/NA 2 3 2 1 2 2
