September 16, 2011 - Mcmahon Slow Off The Mat In Second Round, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Romney Tops Perry 2-1 But Trails A Floundering Obama Word format Former wrestling executive Linda McMahon thumps former U.S. Rep. Chris Shays 50 - 35 percent in an early look at the 2012 Republican primary for the Connecticut U.S. Senate seat, but she trails either of two possible Democratic candidates, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. McMahon leads 54 - 37 percent among Republican men and 47 - 32 percent among women. In the Democratic Senate primary, U.S. Rep. Chris Murphy leads former Connecticut Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz 36 - 26 percent, with 35 percent undecided, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Murphy leads 43 - 25 percent among men and 31 - 26 percent among women. In possible 2012 general election matchups: Murphy tops McMahon 49 - 38 percent; Bysiewicz beats McMahon 46 - 38 percent; Murphy beats Shays 43 - 37 percent; Shays gets 42 percent to Bysiewicz' 40 percent. "While Connecticut has never had a woman United States Senator, there are two formidable women in the running as 2012 promises to be an interesting year on the statewide political scene," said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, PhD. "In the Democratic primary, U.S. Rep. Chris Murphy leads former Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz by 10 points, but it is very early. There is a lot of room for movement because about a third of Democrats are undecided, reflecting the large percentages who don't have an opinion of either candidate." "In the Republican primary, Linda McMahon's name recognition advantage over former U.S. Rep. Chris Shays helps give her an early 15 point lead - before she turns on the vaunted McMahon money machine," Dr. Schwartz added. "McMahon is much better known than Shays, but she doesn't run as well in the general election. And not many voters have a good opinion of her." By a 45 - 38 percent margin, voters have an unfavorable opinion of McMahon. Favorability ratings for other candidates are: 41 - 14 percent favorable for Shays with 44 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion; 39 - 27 percent favorable for Bysiewicz with 33 percent who don't know enough; 38 - 16 percent favorable for Murphy with 45 percent who don't know enough. Connecticut voters are divided 48 - 48 percent on President Barack Obama's job approval, down from 53 - 44 percent approval June 15 and the president's lowest grade ever in the state. There is a large gender gap as women approve 52 - 42 percent while men disapprove 54 - 43 percent. By a slim 49 - 46 percent, voters say the president deserves reelection. Among Republicans, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney leads the pack with 37 percent, followed by Texas Gov. Rick Perry with 19 percent, Minnesota U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann at 8 percent and no other candidate above 4 percent. In 2012 general election matchups, Obama tops Perry 52 - 33 percent and beats Romney 49 - 36 percent. In both races, the president carries independent voters, 45 - 33 percent over Perry and 41 - 37 percent over Romney. "President Barack Obama getting only a 48 - 48 percent approval rating in blue Connecticut shows just how far the president has fallen. But despite the president's split approval rating, he still beats the leading Republican contenders," Schwartz said. From September 8 - 13, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,230 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones. The survey includes 332 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 5.4 percentage points and 447 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. (Republicans) If the 2012 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were - Rick Perry, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman, Herman Cain, and Thaddeus McCotter for whom would you vote? REPUBLICANS...... Tot Men Wom Perry 19% 26% 12% Palin 4 3 4 Gingrich 3 3 2 Romney 37 40 33 Bachmann 8 7 9 Santorum 1 2 1 Paul 3 4 3 Huntsman 2 2 1 Cain 3 2 4 McCotter - - - SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 5 DK/NA 16 9 24 2. (Republicans) If the 2012 Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were - Chris Shays and Linda McMahon, for whom would you vote? REPUBLICANS...... Tot Men Wom Shays 35% 37% 32% McMahon 50 54 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 - DK/NA 12 5 20 3. (Democrats) If the 2012 Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were - Chris Murphy, Susan Bysiewicz and William Tong, for whom would you vote? DEMOCRATS........ Tot Men Wom Murphy 36% 43% 31% Bysiewicz 26 25 26 Tong 1 1 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 2 DK/NA 35 29 40 4. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were - Barack Obama the Democrat and Rick Perry the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 52% 10% 89% 45% 48% 54% Perry 33 81 5 33 37 30 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 4 4 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 - 1 5 3 2 DK/NA 10 6 4 14 8 12 5. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were - Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 49% 11% 86% 41% 46% 52% Romney 36 81 10 37 42 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 3 4 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - - 3 2 3 DK/NA 10 7 3 16 7 13 6. Is your opinion of - Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 50% 8% 84% 44% 46% 53% Unfavorable 45 88 13 48 50 39 Hvn't hrd enough 3 3 2 5 3 3 REFUSED 3 2 1 3 1 4 TREND: Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable, or haven't you heard enough about him? Sep 16 Dec 17 Mar 27 May 10 Feb 19 2011 2008 2008 2007 2007 Favorable 50 71 59 51 48 Unfavorable 45 11 24 15 10 Hvn't hrd enough 3 15 15 32 40 REFUSED 3 2 2 1 2 7. Is your opinion of - Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 34% 64% 21% 31% 42% 27% Unfavorable 28 11 39 25 28 27 Hvn't hrd enough 36 24 38 41 27 44 REFUSED 2 - 2 2 2 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Sep 16 May 10 Feb 19 2011 2007 2007 Favorable 34 15 13 Unfavorable 28 23 19 Hvn't hrd enough 36 60 67 REFUSED 2 1 1 8. Is your opinion of - Rick Perry favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 16% 41% 5% 14% 20% 13% Unfavorable 33 8 51 29 37 29 Hvn't hrd enough 51 51 44 56 43 58 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 1 9. If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Linda McMahon the Republican and Chris Murphy the Democrat, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom McMahon 38% 74% 11% 41% 43% 33% Murphy 49 14 82 43 44 53 SOMEONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 2 DK/NA(VOL) 11 11 7 14 11 12 10. If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Linda McMahon the Republican and Susan Bysiewicz the Democrat, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom McMahon 38% 75% 9% 43% 43% 34% Bysiewicz 46 13 79 37 44 49 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 1 4 2 3 DK/NA(VOL) 12 11 9 14 10 14 11. If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Chris Shays the Republican and Chris Murphy the Democrat, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Shays 37% 78% 11% 37% 42% 32% Murphy 43 9 77 36 43 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 - 3 2 3 DK/NA(VOL) 17 10 11 22 13 21 12. If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Chris Shays the Republican and Susan Bysiewicz the Democrat, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Shays 42% 78% 14% 47% 47% 37% Bysiewicz 40 8 73 30 38 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 2 1 2 DK/NA(VOL) 16 12 12 20 13 19 13. Is your opinion of - Linda McMahon favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 38% 67% 17% 43% 42% 35% Unfavorable 45 17 65 41 44 45 Hvn't hrd enough 15 15 17 14 13 17 REFUSED 2 1 1 2 1 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Linda McMahon favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? (* High also 43% Jul 2010) FAVORABLE.... High Low Sep 16 Aug 4 Jul 16 Jun 10 May 27 Aug 4 Nov 12 2011 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010* 2009 Favorable 38 43 43 38 32 43 20 Unfavorable 45 37 37 35 39 37 13 Hvn't hrd enough 15 17 20 25 27 17 66 REFUSED 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 14. Is your opinion of - Chris Shays favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 41% 51% 34% 42% 48% 35% Unfavorable 14 11 18 10 16 12 Hvn't hrd enough 44 37 47 47 35 52 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 2 15. Is your opinion of - Susan Bysiewicz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 39% 12% 63% 33% 36% 42% Unfavorable 27 51 11 27 30 23 Hvn't hrd enough 33 35 26 39 33 33 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 - 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Susan Bysiewicz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Sep 16 Jan 21 Nov 10 Feb 10 2011 2010 2009 2009 Favorable 39 49 43 40 Unfavorable 27 14 11 12 Hvn't hrd enough 33 36 44 48 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 16. Is your opinion of - Chris Murphy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 38% 17% 58% 35% 38% 38% Unfavorable 16 34 6 15 21 12 Hvn't hrd enough 45 49 36 49 41 48 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 - 2 19. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Lieberman is handling his job as United States Senator? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 51% 66% 44% 52% 52% 49% Disapprove 40 22 46 41 43 37 DK/NA 10 12 10 7 5 14 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Lieberman is handling his job as United States Senator? (*Low also 38% Dec 2008) APPROVE....... High Low Sep 16 Jun 15 Mar 09 Jul 16 Jun 10 Sep 21 Mar 09 2011 2011 2011 2010 2010 2000 2011* Approve 51 41 38 40 41 80 38 Disapprove 40 45 45 50 50 14 45 DK/NA 10 14 17 9 9 6 17 20. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Richard Blumenthal is handling his job as United States Senator? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 60% 35% 81% 56% 54% 66% Disapprove 23 46 7 24 33 15 DK/NA 17 19 12 19 13 20 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Richard Blumenthal is handling his job as United States Senator? Sep 16 Jun 15 Mar 09 2011 2011 2011 Approve 60 54 49 Disapprove 23 25 25 DK/NA 17 21 26 21. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 48% 9% 79% 43% 43% 52% Disapprove 48 87 18 51 54 42 DK/NA 4 4 3 6 3 5 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? (*High also 71% Apr 2009) APPROVE....... High Low Sep 16 Jun 15 Mar 09 Jul 16 Jun 10 May 27 Sep 16 2011 2011 2011 2010 2010 2009* 2011 Approve 48 53 49 50 53 71 48 Disapprove 48 44 47 44 42 22 48 DK/NA 4 3 4 6 5 7 4 23. Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes/Deserves 49% 10% 81% 43% 47% 50% No/Does not 46 89 16 48 50 42 DK/NA 6 1 3 9 3 8 TREND: Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? Sep 16 Jun 15 2011 2011 Yes/Deserves 49 51% No/Does not 46 43 DK/NA 6 6 Demographic Summary
