March 22, 2012 - McMahon Leads In Connecticut GOP Senate Primary, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; But Shays Runs Better Against Democrats Word format Former wrestling executive Linda McMahon leads former U.S. Rep. Christopher Shays 51 - 42 percent in the Republican primary for Connecticut's U.S. Senate seat, but Shays runs better against possible Democratic candidates, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This compares to a 50 - 35 percent McMahon lead September 16. U.S. Rep. Christopher Murphy leads the Democratic primary for Senate with 37 percent, followed by former Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz with 25 percent and State Rep. William Tong with 4 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. In possible November matchups: Murphy tops McMahon 52 - 37 percent; Murphy gets 41 percent to Shays' 40 percent; Bysiewicz beats McMahon 49 - 39 percent; Shays gets 43 percent to Bysiewicz' 42 percent; McMahon leads Tong 43 - 39 percent; Shays tops Tong 50 - 25 percent. In the Murphy-McMahon face-off, the Democrat leads 50 - 41 percent among men and 54 - 33 percent among women. "Congressman Christopher Shays has narrowed the gap with Linda McMahon from 15 points to 9 points. The question is whether he can catch up by primary day, August 14," said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, PhD. "In general election matchups, Shays runs neck and neck with either Congressman Christopher Murphy or Susan Bysiewicz, while McMahon trails both of them by double digits. "The numbers have barely moved in the Democratic primary with Murphy holding a double digit lead over Bysiewicz, but 29 percent are undecided," Dr. Schwartz added. Presidential Race Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney dominates Connecticut's Republican presidential primary with 42 percent, followed by former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum with 19 percent, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich with 13 percent and Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul with 9 percent. President Barack Obama thumps Romney 53 - 37 percent in the general election matchup, leading 51 - 40 percent among men and 55 - 34 percent among women. The president leads 91 - 6 percent among Democrats and 48 - 37 percent among independent voters, while Romney leads 85 - 12 percent among Republicans. Obama beats Santorum 55 - 35 percent. Connecticut voters approve 53 - 43 percent of the job the president is doing and by 55 - 41 percent they have a favorable opinion of him. Romney gets a negative 35 - 43 percent favorability and Santorum gets a negative 27 - 43 percent. "Gov. Mitt Romney is crushing Santorum in Connecticut, leading by 23 points. Romney's strength continues to be among upscale voters and seniors," Schwartz said. "But President Barack Obama has a big double-digit lead over either Romney or Sen. Rick Santorum in the general election. The question here is whether the president's coattails will affect the Senate race in November." Connecticut voters approve 51 - 38 percent of the job U.S. Sen. Joseph Lieberman is doing and approve 64 - 23 percent of freshman Sen. Richard Blumenthal, his best score so far. From March 14 - 19, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,622 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones. The survey includes 429 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percentage points and 640 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED REPUBLICANS........................ COLLEGE DEG Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Gingrich 13% 16% 10% 19% 4% 10% 15% Romney 42 43 40 39 49 51 35 Santorum 19 20 19 23 15 16 22 Paul 9 9 10 4 18 8 10 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 3 1 4 4 2 DK/NA 14 9 18 14 9 10 16 AGE IN YRS....... ANNUAL HsHOLD INCOME 18-44 45-64 65+ <50K 50-100 >100K Gingrich 10% 16% 11% 16% 12% 12% Romney 40 36 51 38 41 44 Santorum 15 22 19 22 23 17 Paul 21 6 4 5 12 10 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 5 2 2 2 3 DK/NA 12 15 13 17 10 13 TREND: (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were: Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum and Ron Paul, for whom would you vote? (* 2011 wording referenced "2012 election") REGISTERED REPUBLICANS Mar 22 Sep 16 2012 2011 Gingrich 13 3 Romney 42 37 Santorum 19 1 Paul 9 3 Bachmann na 8 Cain na 3 Huntsman na 2 McCotter na - Palin na 4 Perry na 19 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 DK/NA 14 16 2. (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Chris Shays and Linda McMahon, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED REPUBLICANS........................ COLLEGE DEG Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Shays 42% 44% 40% 35% 53% 46% 39% McMahon 51 50 52 59 43 47 54 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 2 1 - 2 1 DK/NA 6 6 6 6 4 6 6 AGE IN YRS....... ANNUAL HsHOLD INCOME 18-44 45-64 65+ <50K 50-100 >100K Shays 34% 48% 42% 41% 39% 47% McMahon 54 47 52 52 54 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 - 2 1 1 DK/NA 10 4 6 6 6 5 TREND: (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Chris Shays and Linda McMahon, for whom would you vote? (* 2011 wording referenced "2012 election") REGISTERED REPUBLICANS Mar 22 Sep 16 2012 2011 Shays 42 35 McMahon 51 50 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 DK/NA 6 12 3. (If Registered Democrat) If the Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were: Chris Murphy, Susan Bysiewicz, and William Tong, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED DEMOCRATS.......................... COLLEGE DEG Tot Men Wom Lib Mod Yes No Murphy 37% 41% 35% 39% 41% 44% 32% Bysiewicz 25 25 26 23 26 22 28 Tong 4 3 4 3 3 4 4 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 3 2 4 3 4 DK/NA 29 27 31 32 26 26 32 AGE IN YRS....... ANNUAL HsHOLD INCOME 18-44 45-64 65+ <50K 50-100 >100K Murphy 34% 39% 38% 38% 33% 42% Bysiewicz 23 29 24 31 25 22 Tong 1 4 5 5 3 4 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 7 3 2 3 6 4 DK/NA 36 24 31 23 33 28 TREND: (If Registered Democrat) If the Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were: Chris Murphy, Susan Bysiewicz and William Tong, for whom would you vote? (* 2011 wording referenced "2012 election") REGISTERED DEMOCRATS Mar 22 Sep 16 2012 2011 Murphy 37 36 Bysiewicz 25 26 Tong 4 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 2 DK/NA 29 35 4. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and - Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Lib Mod Con Obama 53% 12% 91% 48% 51% 55% 89% 55% 19% Romney 37 85 6 37 40 34 6 33 72 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 2 - - 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 2 5 3 4 1 3 5 DK/NA 6 2 1 9 4 7 4 8 3 TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? (* 2011 wording referenced "2012 election") Mar 22 Sep 16 2012 2011 Obama 53 49 Romney 37 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 DK/NA 6 10 5. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and - Rick Santorum the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Lib Mod Con Obama 55% 13% 91% 50% 53% 56% 89% 58% 20% Santorum 35 78 5 35 37 33 8 27 70 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 - - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 1 6 4 3 1 5 4 DK/NA 6 5 2 8 5 7 2 9 5 6. Is your opinion of - Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Lib Mod Con Favorable 55% 14% 91% 51% 54% 57% 89% 59% 21% Unfavorable 41 85 7 44 44 38 8 37 77 Hvn't hrd enough 2 - 1 3 1 2 2 2 1 REFUSED 2 1 2 3 1 3 1 2 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable, or haven't you heard enough about him? Mar 22 Sep 16 Dec 17 Mar 27 May 10 Feb 19 2012 2011 2008 2008 2007 2007 Favorable 55 50 71 59 51 48 Unfavorable 41 45 11 24 15 10 Hvn't hrd enough 2 3 15 15 32 40 REFUSED 2 3 2 2 1 2 7. Is your opinion of - Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Lib Mod Con Favorable 35% 66% 13% 36% 38% 32% 14% 36% 55% Unfavorable 43 14 65 43 45 42 69 44 21 Hvn't hrd enough 19 17 18 19 14 23 14 17 23 REFUSED 3 3 3 2 2 4 4 3 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Mar 22 Sep 16 May 10 Feb 19 2012 2011 2007 2007 Favorable 35 34 15 13 Unfavorable 43 28 23 19 Hvn't hrd enough 19 36 60 67 REFUSED 3 2 1 1 8. Is your opinion of - Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Lib Mod Con Favorable 27% 55% 7% 28% 30% 24% 9% 22% 51% Unfavorable 43 17 63 43 45 41 68 47 17 Hvn't hrd enough 29 26 29 28 24 33 23 29 30 REFUSED 2 2 1 1 1 2 - 2 2 9. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Linda McMahon the Republican and - Chris Murphy the Democrat, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Lib Mod Con McMahon 37% 83% 8% 35% 41% 33% 11% 32% 68% Murphy 52 12 83 50 50 54 77 56 24 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - - - 1 - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 - 3 2 1 1 2 2 DK/NA(VOL) 9 4 8 12 7 11 10 10 6 TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Linda McMahon the Republican and Chris Murphy the Democrat, for whom would you vote? (* 2011 wording referenced "2012 election") Mar 22 Sep 16 2012 2011 McMahon 37 38 Murphy 52 49 SOMEONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 DK/NA(VOL) 9 11 10. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Linda McMahon the Republican and - Susan Bysiewicz the Democrat, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Lib Mod Con McMahon 39% 84% 10% 36% 44% 34% 8% 37% 70% Bysiewicz 49 10 81 45 45 52 79 49 22 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 2 5 4 3 3 4 3 DK/NA(VOL) 9 4 7 13 7 11 10 10 5 TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Linda McMahon the Republican and Susan Bysiewicz the Democrat, for whom would you vote? (* 2011 wording referenced "2012 election") Mar 22 Sep 16 2012 2011 McMahon 39 38 Bysiewicz 49 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 DK/NA(VOL) 9 12 11. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Linda McMahon the Republican and - William Tong the Democrat, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Lib Mod Con McMahon 43% 87% 11% 44% 49% 37% 14% 39% 76% Tong 39 6 71 32 38 39 68 37 15 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 2 2 5 4 4 2 6 2 DK/NA(VOL) 14 4 15 19 9 19 16 17 7 12. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Chris Shays the Republican and - Chris Murphy the Democrat, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Lib Mod Con Shays 40% 80% 11% 40% 48% 32% 14% 37% 67% Murphy 41 8 75 34 38 45 66 42 19 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 - 3 2 2 1 2 2 DK/NA(VOL) 17 10 13 22 12 22 19 18 12 TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Chris Shays the Republican and Chris Murphy the Democrat, for whom would you vote? (* 2011 wording referenced "2012 election") Mar 22 Sep 16 2012 2011 Shays 40 37 Murphy 41 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 DK/NA(VOL) 17 17 13. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Chris Shays the Republican and - Susan Bysiewicz the Democrat, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Lib Mod Con Shays 43% 81% 15% 44% 50% 36% 15% 45% 66% Bysiewicz 42 11 71 36 35 47 68 39 23 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - - - - - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 3 3 1 1 3 2 DK/NA(VOL) 13 5 13 16 11 15 16 14 8 TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Chris Shays the Republican and Susan Bysiewicz the Democrat, for whom would you vote? (* 2011 wording referenced "2012 election") Mar 22 Sep 16 2012 2011 Shays 43 42 Bysiewicz 42 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 DK/NA(VOL) 13 16 14. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Chris Shays the Republican and - William Tong the Democrat, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Lib Mod Con Shays 50% 87% 23% 53% 57% 44% 22% 52% 76% Tong 25 4 53 16 23 27 50 21 10 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 2 4 4 3 2 4 3 DK/NA(VOL) 21 8 22 26 15 26 25 23 11 15. Is your opinion of - Linda McMahon favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Lib Mod Con Favorable 40% 74% 14% 41% 44% 36% 17% 37% 66% Unfavorable 44 16 68 42 44 44 69 47 19 Hvn't hrd enough 15 9 17 15 11 18 13 14 14 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 1 2 - 2 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Linda McMahon favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? (* High also 43% Jul 2010) FAVORABLE.... High Low Mar 22 Sep 16 Aug 4 Jul 16 Jun 10 Aug 4 Nov 12 2012 2011 2010 2010 2010 2010* 2009 Favorable 40 38 43 43 38 43 20 Unfavorable 44 45 37 37 35 37 13 Hvn't hrd enough 15 15 17 20 25 17 66 REFUSED 1 2 2 1 1 2 1 16. Is your opinion of - Chris Shays favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Lib Mod Con Favorable 47% 60% 37% 49% 54% 40% 37% 50% 53% Unfavorable 13 8 20 11 15 11 18 13 9 Hvn't hrd enough 38 31 41 39 29 47 43 35 37 REFUSED 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Chris Shays favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Mar 22 Sep 16 2012 2011 Favorable 47 41 Unfavorable 13 14 Hvn't hrd enough 38 44 REFUSED 2 1 17. Is your opinion of - Susan Bysiewicz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Lib Mod Con Favorable 39% 17% 55% 38% 36% 41% 57% 40% 23% Unfavorable 27 48 12 27 31 22 9 26 44 Hvn't hrd enough 34 34 32 34 32 36 33 33 33 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 1 - TREND: Is your opinion of Susan Bysiewicz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Mar 22 Sep 16 Jan 21 Nov 10 Feb 10 2012 2011 2010 2009 2009 Favorable 39 39 49 43 40 Unfavorable 27 27 14 11 12 Hvn't hrd enough 34 33 36 44 48 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 18. Is your opinion of - Chris Murphy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Lib Mod Con Favorable 40% 19% 60% 35% 41% 39% 54% 44% 24% Unfavorable 15 33 3 15 19 12 2 12 32 Hvn't hrd enough 44 47 37 48 40 48 44 43 43 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 - 1 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Chris Murphy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Mar 22 Sep 16 2012 2011 Favorable 40 38 Unfavorable 15 16 Hvn't hrd enough 44 45 REFUSED 1 1 19. Is your opinion of - William Tong favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Lib Mod Con Favorable 10% 4% 17% 8% 12% 8% 17% 7% 7% Unfavorable 5 8 2 6 8 3 1 6 8 Hvn't hrd enough 85 88 81 86 80 89 81 87 84 REFUSED - - - 1 - - - - - 22. Do you approve or disapprove of the way - Joe Lieberman is handling his job as United States Senator? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Lib Mod Con Approve 51% 61% 39% 54% 54% 48% 39% 53% 56% Disapprove 38 31 49 34 39 37 51 35 34 DK/NA 11 8 12 12 7 15 10 12 10 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Lieberman is handling his job as United States Senator? (*Low also 38% Dec 2008) APPROVE....... High Low Mar 22 Sep 16 Jun 15 Mar 09 Jul 16 Sep 21 Mar 09 2012 2011 2011 2011 2010 2000 2011* Approve 51 51 41 38 40 80 38 Disapprove 38 40 45 45 50 14 45 DK/NA 11 10 14 17 9 6 17 23. Do you approve or disapprove of the way - Richard Blumenthal is handling his job as United States Senator? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Lib Mod Con Approve 64% 44% 82% 62% 61% 66% 83% 68% 40% Disapprove 23 42 6 24 28 18 6 19 44 DK/NA 14 14 12 14 11 16 11 13 15 10 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Richard Blumenthal is handling his job as United States Senator? Mar 22 Sep 16 Jun 15 Mar 09 2012 2011 2011 2011 Approve 64 60 54 49 Disapprove 23 23 25 25 DK/NA 14 17 21 26 24. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Lib Mod Con Approve 53% 12% 87% 49% 51% 54% 87% 56% 17% Disapprove 43 87 10 46 46 40 11 39 79 DK/NA 4 2 3 5 2 5 3 5 3 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? (*High also 71% Apr 2009) APPROVE....... High Low Mar 22 Sep 16 Jun 15 Mar 09 Jul 16 May 27 Sep 16 2012 2011 2011 2011 2010 2009* 2011 Approve 53 48 53 49 50 71 48 Disapprove 43 48 44 47 44 22 48 DK/NA 4 4 3 4 6 7 4 Demographic Summary
