October 2, 2002 - Gov. Rowland Pulling Away In Connecticut, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Incumbent Leads In Every Region And On Key Issues Connecticut Gov. John Rowland has a 59 - 37 percent lead among likely voters over his Democratic challenger, former State Comptroller Bill Curry, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today. This is the first measure of likely voters in this race and includes voters who are leaning towards one of the candidates. Among registered voters, Gov. Rowland is ahead 54 - 32 percent, similar to his 51 - 34 percent lead among registered voters in a July 31 poll by the independent Quinnipiac University. Rowland leads among registered voters in every region of the state. He is ahead 88 - 6 percent among Republicans and 52 - 30 percent among independent voters. Curry leads 57 - 31 percent among Democrats. "Gov. Rowland has halted Curry's momentum. This it the first Quinnipiac University poll in which Rowland did not lose ground to Curry. And Rowland's approval rating has stopped dropping. An incumbent's approval often gets hammered by the rough and tumble of a campaign, especially a campaign during an economic downturn," said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D. "A problem for Curry is that he has not rallied his Democratic base, where Rowland gets 31 percent," Dr. Schwartz added. Rowland's approval rating is 58 - 31 percent among registered voters, compared to 54 - 32 percent in the July 31 Quinnipiac University poll. Rowland's favorability is 46 - 21 percent among registered voters, with 26 percent mixed and 6 percent saying they haven't heard enough to form an opinion. Curry has a 12 - 18 percent favorability rating, with 18 percent mixed and 51 percent who say they haven't heard enough to form an opinion. "Curry's campaign has not been effective in making him well-known among Connecticut voters, nor has Curry been effective in raising Rowland's negatives," Dr. Schwartz said. Looking at issues important to them, Connecticut registered voters say: 49 - 31 percent that Rowland would do a better job with the state's economy; 49 - 28 percent that the Governor would do a better job on education; 43 - 31 percent that Rowland would do a better job on tax policy. Of those who have seen Rowland's campaign ads on TV, 45 percent say they are mostly accurate while 36 percent say they are mostly misleading. Curry's TV ads are mostly accurate, according to 31 percent of those who have seen them, while 43 percent say they are mostly misleading. Half of Connecticut voters - 49 percent - strongly oppose developing new casinos in the state, while 19 percent oppose new casinos somewhat; 11 percent strongly favor new casinos and 14 percent favor them somewhat. From September 24 - 30, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,518 Connecticut registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percent. The survey includes 816 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percent The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and the nation as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu 1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Rowland is handling his job as Governor? REGISTERED VOTERS.......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 58% 82% 43% 55% 61% 55% Disapprove 31 11 45 34 30 32 DK/NA 11 7 13 12 9 13 MdlSex Toll,Wndm Fairfld Hrtford Ltchfld NewHvn NewLon Approve 63% 60% 69% 54% 50% Disapprove 27 28 25 34 39 DK/NA 10 12 6 13 11 2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? REGISTERED VOTERS.......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 61% 89% 40% 60% 66% 56% Disapprove 32 8 53 31 29 35 DK/NA 7 3 7 9 5 8 MdlSex Toll,Wndm Fairfld Hrtford Ltchfld NewHvn NewLon Approve 65% 58% 64% 60% 59% Disapprove 28 34 30 33 35 DK/NA 8 7 6 6 6 3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joseph Lieberman is handling his job as United States Senator? REGISTERED VOTERS.......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 58% 43% 72% 59% 54% 62% Disapprove 29 44 18 27 36 23 DK/NA 13 13 9 14 10 16 MdlSex Toll,Wndm Fairfld Hrtford Ltchfld NewHvn NewLon Approve 58% 54% 51% 61% 61% Disapprove 29 30 33 27 27 DK/NA 13 15 16 11 12 4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Christopher Dodd is handling his job as United States Senator? REGISTERED VOTERS.......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 58% 39% 73% 59% 52% 63% Disapprove 21 39 11 18 29 15 DK/NA 21 22 16 23 19 22 MdlSex Toll,Wndm Fairfld Hrtford Ltchfld NewHvn NewLon Approve 56% 60% 46% 58% 61% Disapprove 21 20 28 21 24 DK/NA 23 20 25 21 15 6. Is your opinion of Governor John Rowland favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? REGISTERED VOTERS.......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 46% 74% 29% 44% 49% 44% Unfavorable 21 7 30 23 22 20 Mixed 26 16 33 27 23 29 Hvn't hrd enough 6 3 8 6 6 6 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 - 1 MdlSex Toll,Wndm Fairfld Hrtford Ltchfld NewHvn NewLon Favorable 49% 47% 57% 43% 41% Unfavorable 15 22 14 24 23 Mixed 26 25 21 27 29 Hvn't hrd enough 10 4 5 5 5 REFUSED - 1 4 1 1 7. Is your opinion of former State Comptroller Bill Curry favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? REGISTERED VOTERS.......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 12% 3% 21% 12% 13% 12% Unfavorable 18 32 10 15 20 16 Mixed 18 15 19 20 18 18 Hvn't hrd enough 51 49 50 52 48 53 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 MdlSex Toll,Wndm Fairfld Hrtford Ltchfld NewHvn NewLon Favorable 5% 16% 14% 13% 18% Unfavorable 12 23 14 19 19 Mixed 13 21 21 20 18 Hvn't hrd enough 69 39 50 48 44 REFUSED 1 2 1 - 1 8. As you may know, there will be an election for Governor in November. If the election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Bill Curry the Democrat and John Rowland the Republican for whom would you vote? REGISTERED VOTERS.......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Curry 32% 6% 57% 30% 30% 33% Rowland 54 88 31 52 58 51 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 1 2 DK/NA 12 5 11 15 10 13 MdlSex Toll,Wndm Fairfld Hrtford Ltchfld NewHvn NewLon Curry 27% 32% 25% 35% 37% Rowland 58 56 64 50 50 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 1 1 2 DK/NA 14 10 8 13 11 8. As you may know, there will be an election for Governor in November. If the election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Bill Curry the Democrat and John Rowland the Republican for whom would you vote? (If undecided q8) As of today, do you lean more to Curry or Rowland? Registered voters REGISTERED VOTERS(Includes Leaners)........ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Curry 34% 7% 58% 34% 33% 35% Rowland 58 90 34 57 62 55 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - 1 - 1 DK/NA 7 3 7 8 5 8 MdlSex Toll,Wndm Fairfld Hrtford Ltchfld NewHvn NewLon Curry 29% 34% 26% 37% 41% Rowland 62 58 67 57 52 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - 1 - DK/NA 9 7 6 5 7 8. As you may know, there will be an election for Governor in November. If the election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Bill Curry the Democrat and John Rowland the Republican for whom would you vote? LIKELY VOTERS.............................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Curry 35% 7% 60% 36% 33% 37% Rowland 57 90 33 53 60 55 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - 1 - - DK/NA 6 2 7 9 5 7 8. As you may know, there will be an election for Governor in November. If the election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Bill Curry the Democrat and John Rowland the Republican for whom would you vote? (If undecided q8) As of today, do you lean more to Curry or Rowland? Likely voters LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Leaners)............ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Curry 37% 7% 60% 40% 35% 38% Rowland 59 91 35 55 62 57 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - 1 - - DK/NA 3 1 4 4 2 4 9. Are you very sure about voting for 'Candidate choice'; or might you change your mind before the election? REGISTERED............ LIKELY................ Curry Rowland Curry Rowland supporters supporters supporters supporters Very sure 72% 68% 83% 76% Might change 28 31 17 23 DK/NA 1 1 - - 10. Would you say that your choice is more a vote for (Your Candidate Q9), or more a vote against (Other Candidate Q9)? REGISTERED............ LIKELY................ Curry Rowland Curry Rowland supporters supporters supporters supporters For candidate 31% 81% 33% 79% Against candidate 62 14 63 16 DK/NA 7 4 4 5 11. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Connecticut today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? REGISTERED VOTERS.......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Very satisfied 10% 18% 5% 8% 11% 9% Smwht satisfied 57 66 53 56 58 56 Smwht dissatisfied 24 12 29 27 22 25 Very dissatisfied 8 3 12 8 8 8 DK/NA 1 1 - 1 1 1 12. What do you think is the most important problem facing Connecticut today? REGISTERED VOTERS.......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Crime total: 2% 2% 4% 1% 2% 2% Crime/Violence general 1 1 2 1 1 1 Drugs 1 1 2 - 1 1 Budget/Spending total: 10% 10% 9% 12% 11% 10% Budget/Spending general 5 5 5 6 6 5 Budget deficits 5 5 4 6 5 5 Taxes total: 17% 20% 13% 17% 20% 15% Taxes general 14 16 10 15 16 13 Property tax 2 2 2 1 2 1 State Income Tax 1 2 1 1 2 1 Economy total: 26% 25% 27% 25% 30% 22% Economy general 11 12 11 11 14 8 Unemployment/jobs 12 11 15 11 13 12 Cost of living 2 1 - 3 2 2 Businesses leaving 1 1 1 1 1 - Education total: 12% 11% 17% 12% 7% 17% Education general 9 8 12 9 5 13 Funding education 2 2 3 2 2 2 Education other 1 1 2 1 - 2 Transportation total: 5% 6% 1% 6% 5% 3% Lack of quality mass trans/Public trans 1 1 - 1 1 - Highway traffic/ congestion 3 4 1 3 3 2 Transportation other 1 1 - 2 1 1 Welfare 1 1 - 1 1 - Poverty/Homelessness 1 1 2 1 - 2 Class inequality 1 - 2 1 - 1 Healthcare/Costs/ Insurance/HMO's 2 2 2 1 2 2 Casinos/Gambling 2 2 2 3 3 2 Environment/Pollution 1 - 1 1 1 1 Politicians/ Campaigns general 1 1 1 1 1 1 Other 4 5 4 4 5 4 DK/NA 8 10 7 6 6 9 12. What do you think is the most important problem facing Connecticut today? (by Area) REGISTERED VOTERS........................ MdlSex Toll,Wndm Fairfld Hrtford Ltchfld NewHvn NewLon Crime total: 3% 1% - 3% - Crime/Violence general 2 1 - 1 - Drugs 1 - - 2 - Budget/Spending total: 6% 12% 10% 10% 14% Budget/Spending general 3 7 6 6 5 Budget deficits 3 5 4 4 9 Taxes total: 17% 13% 20% 21% 21% Taxes general 13 11 15 17 17 Property tax 3 1 3 2 2 State Income Tax 1 1 2 2 2 Economy total: 23% 32% 24% 26% 22% Economy general 8 15 4 12 11 Unemployment/jobs 12 15 19 12 8 Cost of living 3 1 - 1 2 Businesses leaving - 1 1 1 1 Education total: 14% 17% 8% 11% 11% Education general 11 13 6 6 8 Funding education 3 1 2 2 2 Education other - 1 - 2 1 Welfare - 2 - 1 - Transportation total: 12% - 1% 4% 2% Lack of quality mass trans/Public trans 3 - - - - Highway traffic/ congestion 6 - - 3 1 Transportation other 3 - 1 1 1 Poverty/Homelessness - 2 - 1 - Class inequality 1 1 - 1 1 Healthcare/Costs/ Insurance/HMO's 1 1 2 3 2 Casinos/Gambling 3 1 5 1 5 Environment/ Pollution - 1 2 1 1 Politicians/ Campaigns other - - 1 - - Other 3 4 5 5 4 DK/NA 9 7 9 6 9 14. Which candidate for Governor, Bill Curry or John Rowland, do you think would do a better job handling the state economy? REGISTERED VOTERS.......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Curry 31% 10% 47% 32% 32% 30% Rowland 49 78 31 46 52 47 NO DIFF(VOL) 3 1 4 3 3 3 DK/NA 17 10 19 19 13 21 15. Which candidate for Governor, Bill Curry or John Rowland, do you think would do a better job handling the state budget? REGISTERED VOTERS.......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Curry 32% 10% 51% 33% 33% 32% Rowland 47 77 27 44 50 44 NO DIFF(VOL) 3 1 2 4 3 2 DK/NA 18 12 20 19 14 22 16. Which candidate for Governor, Bill Curry or John Rowland, do you think would do a better job handling education? REGISTERED VOTERS.......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Curry 28% 9% 47% 26% 29% 27% Rowland 49 74 31 47 49 48 NO DIFF(VOL) 3 1 3 3 3 2 DK/NA 21 16 19 23 18 23 17. Which candidate for Governor, Bill Curry or John Rowland, do you think would do a better job handling tax policy? REGISTERED VOTERS.......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Curry 31% 10% 48% 32% 32% 31% Rowland 43 72 23 42 48 40 NO DIFF(VOL) 3 2 4 3 4 3 DK/NA 22 17 24 22 17 27 18. Which candidate for Governor, Bill Curry or John Rowland, do you think would do a better job handling the environment? REGISTERED VOTERS.......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Curry 33% 15% 49% 33% 38% 28% Rowland 39 61 26 36 38 40 NO DIFF(VOL) 3 2 4 4 3 4 DK/NA 25 21 21 28 21 28 19. Which candidate for Governor, Bill Curry or John Rowland, do you think would do a better job handling revitalization of the cities? REGISTERED VOTERS.......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Curry 24% 8% 40% 23% 25% 23% Rowland 52 77 38 49 53 51 NO DIFF(VOL) 3 1 4 4 3 4 DK/NA 21 14 19 24 19 23 20. Which candidate for Governor, Bill Curry or John Rowland, do you think would do a better job handling traffic congestion on highways? REGISTERED VOTERS.......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Curry 23% 8% 37% 22% 24% 22% Rowland 37 62 25 33 39 36 NO DIFF(VOL) 9 8 7 11 11 7 DK/NA 31 21 31 34 26 35 21. Which candidate for Governor, Bill Curry or John Rowland, do you think would do a better job handling casino expansion? REGISTERED VOTERS.......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Curry 22% 9% 33% 22% 22% 21% Rowland 46 66 35 45 49 44 NO DIFF(VOL) 5 4 5 6 5 5 DK/NA 27 22 26 27 24 29 22. Which candidate for Governor, Bill Curry or John Rowland, do you think has stronger leadership qualities? REGISTERED VOTERS.......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Curry 17% 4% 29% 16% 17% 16% Rowland 63 87 48 61 65 61 NO DIFF(VOL) 2 1 3 2 3 2 DK/NA 18 8 20 20 15 21 23. Which candidate for Governor, Bill Curry or John Rowland, do you think cares more about the needs and problems of people like you? REGISTERED VOTERS.......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Curry 33% 10% 53% 33% 33% 33% Rowland 41 71 23 38 44 40 NO DIFF(VOL) 7 5 7 6 8 5 DK/NA 19 13 17 22 15 22 24. Which candidate for Governor, Bill Curry or John Rowland, do you think is more honest and trustworthy? REGISTERED VOTERS.......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Curry 24% 6% 40% 24% 25% 24% Rowland 35 60 23 30 38 33 NO DIFF(VOL) 13 13 12 13 14 11 DK/NA 28 21 26 33 24 32 25. Which candidate for Governor, Bill Curry or John Rowland, do you think has better experience? REGISTERED VOTERS.......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Curry 9% 2% 14% 8% 11% 7% Rowland 77 92 68 76 79 75 NO DIFF(VOL) 2 1 3 2 2 3 DK/NA 12 5 14 13 8 16 26. Do you favor or oppose the development of new casinos in Connecticut? If 'favor' or 'oppose' -- Is that strongly or somewhat? REGISTERED VOTERS.......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favor strongly 11% 11% 12% 10% 13% 9% Favor smwht 14 12 18 12 15 13 Oppose smwht 19 20 17 21 20 18 Oppose strongly 49 51 46 51 46 52 DK/NA 7 7 7 6 6 8 MdlSex Toll,Wndm Fairfld Hrtford Ltchfld NewHvn NewLon Favor strongly 15% 7% 7% 13% 8% Favor smwht 16 14 10 14 10 Oppose smwht 16 20 18 21 19 Oppose strongly 47 50 56 45 59 DK/NA 6 9 9 7 5 27. Which do you think is the worst tax -- that is the least fair -- federal income tax, federal Social Security tax, state income tax, state sales tax, or local property tax? REGISTERED VOTERS.......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Federal income tax 13% 13% 12% 13% 11% 14% Social Security tax 7 10 7 6 7 8 State income tax 25 30 21 26 27 24 State sales tax 13 10 14 14 17 10 Local property tax 37 33 40 37 34 39 DK/NA 5 4 5 5 4 6 28. Have you seen any of John Rowland's television ads for this year's election? REGISTERED VOTERS.......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 72% 73% 71% 72% 70% 72% No 28 26 28 28 29 27 DK/NA 1 1 1 - 1 1 29. (If 'Yes' on Q28) I would like to ask you a few questions about John Rowland's television ads for this year's election. First, from what you have seen of John Rowland's television ads, are they more positive or more negative? REGISTERED VOTERS(Who have seen ads Q28)... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Positive 67% 82% 59% 63% 66% 69% Negative 22 11 27 26 23 21 DK/NA 11 7 15 11 11 10 30. From what you have seen of John Rowland's television ads, are they mostly accurate or mostly misleading? REGISTERED VOTERS(Who have seen ads Q28)... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Accurate 45% 70% 32% 39% 47% 44% Misleading 36 16 49 40 36 35 DK/NA 19 14 20 21 17 21 31. From what you have seen of John Rowland's television ads, have you found the information provided useful or not useful? REGISTERED VOTERS(Who have seen ads Q28)... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Useful 42% 54% 36% 37% 40% 43% Not useful 50 37 56 55 52 48 DK/NA 8 9 9 8 8 8 32. Have you seen any of Bill Curry's television ads for this year's election? REGISTERED VOTERS.......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 63% 60% 61% 66% 61% 64% No 36 38 38 34 37 35 DK/NA 1 2 1 1 1 1 33. (If 'Yes' Q32.) I would like to ask you a few questions about Bill Curry's television ads for this year's election. First, from what you have seen of Bill Curry's television ads, are they more positive or more negative? REGISTERED VOTERS(Who have seen ads Q32)... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Positive 29% 13% 42% 29% 28% 29% Negative 60 80 47 57 63 58 DK/NA 11 6 11 14 9 13 34. From what you have seen of Bill Curry's television ads, are they mostly accurate or mostly misleading? REGISTERED VOTERS(Who have seen ads Q32)... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Accurate 31% 11% 44% 34% 34% 28% Misleading 43 66 31 39 43 43 DK/NA 26 23 25 28 23 28 35. From what you have seen of Bill Curry's television ads, have you found the information provided useful or not useful? REGISTERED VOTERS(Who have seen ads Q32)... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Useful 35% 23% 43% 35% 35% 34% Not useful 57 70 49 56 58 57 DK/NA 8 7 8 9 7 9
