September 8, 2008 - Gov. Crist Riding High In Florida, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Back Ban On Gay Marriage, But Short Of 60% Word format Gov. Charlie Crist retains his lofty 61 - 25 percent job approval rating, while the proposed constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage remains short, although within range, of the 60 percent vote needed for approval, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Gov. Crist's support includes 50 percent of Democrats and 57 percent of independent voters. At the same time, the State Legislature gets a split 40 - 41 percent approval rating. Florida voters support 55 - 41 percent an amendment that would define marriage as being between a man and woman, slightly lower than the 58 - 37 percent support in a June 3 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. Republicans support the amendment 76 - 21 percent while Democrats oppose it 51 - 45 percent and independent voters oppose it by a similar 51 - 44 percent margin. Men support the measure 55 - 41 percent while women back it 54 - 42 percent. White evangelical Christians support it 78 - 20 percent. "In this very polarized electorate, it is very unusual for a public figure to have such popularity across party lines as does Gov. Charlie Crist," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Given that 83 percent of voters say Crist did a good job dealing with Hurricane Fay, it would be tempting to credit his popularity to that, but in reality his numbers have been higher than Jeb Bush ever had since he took office. "The 55 percent level of support for the same-sex marriage ban is a bit surprising given that similar amendments have passed in a dozen states. But backers have eight weeks to close that five-point gap by changing some minds and winning over undecided voters." A total of 53 percent of Florida voters are "somewhat dissatisfied" or "very dissatisfied" with the way things are going in the state, while 46 percent are "very satisfied" or "somewhat satisfied." While this satisfaction rate is low, it is an improvement over the rates in Quinnipiac University surveys June 3 and April 10. This latest survey began before the Florida Supreme Court tossed three proposed constitutional amendments off the ballot. The poll stopped asking those questions after the decision was handed down. Two nights of polling show Florida voters support 51 - 39 percent a proposed constitutional amendment to eliminate property taxes for schools and replace it with other levies, short of the 60 percent needed for passage. The numbers are virtually identical to the 50 - 38 percent margin in Quinnipiac University's June 3 poll. Another proposed amendment that the court invalidated - requiring at least 65 percent of public school funds be spent in the classroom - appeared on its way to passage with 65 - 24 percent support. Voters oppose 57 - 38 percent an amendment, now dropped from the ballot, making it easier for the state to provide public funds for vouchers to private or religious schools. From September 2 - 4, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,427 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. For the school financing questions, 1,014 voters were surveyed, with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201. 1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charlie Crist is handling his job as Governor? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 61% 76% 50% 57% 64% 57% 69% Disapprove 25 15 33 28 25 26 19 DK/NA 14 8 17 14 11 17 12 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 61% 60% 65% 74% 52% Disapprove 24 27 21 15 33 DK/NA 15 13 14 12 15 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charlie Crist is handling his job as Governor? * also 73% on 3/29/07 Highest Lowest Approve Approve Sep 8 Jun 3 Apr 10 Oct 24 Sep 11 Jul 19 Jul 19 Apr 10 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 * 2008 Approve 61 61 59 65 65 73 73 59 Disapprove 25 23 25 17 17 11 11 25 DK/NA 14 16 15 18 18 16 16 15 2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 40% 54% 33% 35% 43% 38% 48% Disapprove 41 31 44 48 41 41 34 DK/NA 19 14 23 17 17 21 18 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 44% 37% 40% 46% 38% Disapprove 38 40 42 32 45 DK/NA 18 22 18 22 17 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? Highest Lowest Approve Approve Sep 8 Jun 3 Apr 10 Oct 24 Sep 11 Jul 19 Sep 23 Apr 10 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 2004 2008 Approve 40 38 32 36 37 39 51 32 Disapprove 41 46 48 43 43 37 34 48 DK/NA 19 17 20 22 20 24 15 20 3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 49% 46% 54% 47% 50% 47% 49% Disapprove 23 28 16 23 27 19 26 DK/NA 28 26 29 30 24 33 25 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 46% 54% 49% 43% 48% Disapprove 28 16 23 25 24 DK/NA 25 30 28 31 29 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator? Highest Lowest Approve Approve Sep 8 Jun 3 Apr 10 Oct 24 Sep 11 Jul 19 Feb 6 Aug 12 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 2004 Approve 49 51 49 48 50 47 54 42 Disapprove 23 26 25 24 22 26 18 18 DK/NA 28 24 26 28 29 27 28 40 4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mel Martinez is handling his job as United States Senator? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 37% 52% 26% 36% 38% 35% 46% Disapprove 32 24 36 34 36 27 28 DK/NA 31 24 38 30 26 37 26 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 44% 29% 41% 37% 34% Disapprove 29 32 31 34 34 DK/NA 27 39 29 29 32 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mel Martinez is handling his job as United States Senator? Highest Lowest Approve Approve Sep 8 Jun 3 Apr 10 Oct 24 Sep 11 Jul 19 Feb 6 Oct 24 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Approve 37 40 36 35 38 36 48 35 Disapprove 32 35 37 34 33 38 22 34 DK/NA 31 25 27 31 29 26 29 31 5. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Florida today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Very satisfied 7% 12% 2% 6% 8% 5% 9% Smwht satisfied 39 49 35 35 39 39 43 Smwht dissatisfied 29 24 32 33 26 33 29 Very dissatisfied 24 14 31 26 25 23 18 DK/NA - 1 1 - - 1 1 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Very satisfied 8% 6% 6% 9% 6% Smwht satisfied 50 42 40 31 30 Smwht dissatisfied 26 25 33 33 31 Very dissatisfied 15 26 20 27 32 DK/NA - - 1 - - TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Florida today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? Sep 8 Jun 3 Apr 10 Oct 24 Sep 11 Jul 19 Dec 20 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 2006 Very satisfied 7 4 5 5 7 8 10 Smwht satisfied 39 35 32 42 40 45 41 Smwht dissatisfied 29 34 34 33 33 33 29 Very dissatisfied 24 26 28 19 18 13 19 DK/NA - 1 1 1 1 1 1 6. Do you think that Charlie Crist has kept his campaign promises so far or not? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Yes 51% 64% 43% 47% 55% 47% 58% No 29 22 36 31 27 32 24 DK/NA 20 13 21 22 18 21 18 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Yes 52% 45% 52% 58% 51% No 26 34 29 21 32 DK/NA 22 20 19 21 17 TREND: Do you think that Charlie Crist has kept his campaign promises so far or not? Sep 8 Jun 3 Apr 10 Oct 24 Sep 11 Feb 6 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 Yes 51 55 51 57 55 67 No 29 29 33 24 23 6 DK/NA 20 17 16 19 22 27 7. (Asked two nights only, prior to Court ruling) There may be on the ballot a proposed constitutional amendment to reduce property taxes about 25 percent by doing away with local property taxes used to fund public schools. How much have you heard or read about this plan - A lot, some, not much or nothing at all? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl A lot 20% 19% 18% 22% 22% 17% 19% Some 35 33 35 36 32 37 37 Not much 28 31 28 26 29 27 27 Nothing at all 17 16 18 16 16 18 17 DK/NA 1 1 - - - 1 1 TREND: There *may be on the ballot a proposed constitutional amendment to reduce property taxes about 25 percent by doing away with local property taxes used to fund public schools. How much have you heard or read about this plan - A lot, some, not much or nothing at all? * 6/3/2008 wording: There "is" a proposed...." Sep 8 Jun 3 2008 2008* A lot 20 23 Some 35 43 Not much 28 23 Nothing at all 17 12 DK/NA 1 - 8. (Asked two nights only, prior to Court ruling) The proposed constitutional amendment would require the funds to be made up through one or more of the following options - an increase in state sales tax of up to one cent, the elimination of some sales-tax exemptions, or reducing spending. Would you support or oppose this constitutional amendment? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 51% 57% 49% 47% 53% 48% 50% Oppose 39 33 41 44 38 41 39 DK/NA 10 11 10 9 9 11 11 TREND: The proposed constitutional amendment would require the funds to be made up through one or more of the following options - An increase in state sales tax of up to one cent, the elimination of some sales-tax exemptions or reducing spending. Would* you support or oppose this constitutional amendment? *6/3/08 wording: "Do" you support or oppose.... Sep 8 Jun 3 2008 2008* Support 51 50 Oppose 39 38 DK/NA 10 11 9. (Asked two nights only, prior to Court ruling) If this constitutional amendment were to pass, would you prefer the legislature - increase the state sales tax, eliminate sales-tax exemptions or reduce spending on state programs and services? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Increase sales tax 38% 36% 45% 37% 39% 38% 33% Eliminate exemptions 30 26 32 31 28 32 30 Reduce spending 22 31 13 20 26 18 25 DK/NA 10 7 10 12 8 12 12 TREND: If this constitutional amendment were to pass, would you prefer the legislature - increase the state sales tax, eliminate sales-tax exemptions, or reduce spending on state programs and services? Sep 8 Jun 3 2008 2008 Increase sales tax 38 35 Eliminate exemptions 30 34 Reduce spending 22 21 DK/NA 10 10 10. In general do you favor or oppose providing parents with tax money in the form of school vouchers to help pay for their children to attend private or religious schools? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favor 43% 50% 37% 42% 42% 43% 49% Oppose 52 45 59 53 53 51 46 DK/NA 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 North/ HvKids HvKids PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE <18 PubSch Favor 53% 40% 41% 42% 40% 53% 50% Oppose 44 54 54 51 57 44 49 DK/NA 3 6 6 8 4 4 2 TREND: In general do you favor or oppose providing parents with tax money in the form of school vouchers to help pay for their children to attend private or religious schools? Sep 8 Jun 3 Apr 10 2008 2008 2008 Favor 43 41 41 Oppose 52 55 54 DK/NA 5 4 5 11. (Asked two nights only, prior to Court ruling) Would you favor or oppose a constitutional amendment that would make it easier for the state to provide public funds for vouchers to private or religious schools? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favor 38% 42% 30% 40% 38% 37% 43% Oppose 57 51 64 54 59 55 49 DK/NA 6 6 5 6 4 8 8 TREND: Would you favor or oppose a constitutional amendment that would make it easier for the state to provide public funds for vouchers to private or religious schools? Sep 8 Jun 3 Apr 10 2008 2008 2008 Favor 38 38 36 Oppose 57 56 59 DK/NA 6 6 5 12. (Asked two nights only, prior to Court ruling) Another proposed constitutional amendment that may be on the ballot would allow school voucher programs in Florida and require that schools spend at least 65 percent of their budgets in the classroom. Would you support or oppose this proposed constitutional amendment? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 65% 67% 63% 65% 61% 70% 72% Oppose 24 21 28 23 28 19 17 DK/NA 11 12 9 12 11 11 12 TREND: Another proposed constitutional amendment *that may be on the ballot would allow school voucher programs in Florida and require that schools spend at least 65 percent of their budgets in the classroom. Would you support or oppose this proposed constitutional amendment? *6/3/08 wording did not include "that may be on the ballot" Sep 8 Jun 3 2008 2008 Support 65 63 Oppose 24 25 DK/NA 11 12 13. Do you think schools should spend more than 65 percent of their budgets on classroom instruction, less than 65 percent, or is 65 percent about right? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl More than 65% 37% 36% 39% 39% 37% 38% 36% Less than 65% 5 4 7 4 5 6 6 65% is about right 46 47 45 45 46 45 47 DK/NA 11 12 10 12 12 11 11 North/ HvKids HvKids PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE <18 PubSch More than 65% 37% 39% 36% 36% 38% 42% 44% Less than 65% 7 6 5 6 4 6 6 65% is about right 46 43 46 49 46 45 44 DK/NA 10 12 12 9 12 7 7 TREND: Do you think schools should spend more than 65 percent of their budgets on classroom instruction, less than 65 percent, or is 65 percent about right? Sep 8 Jun 3 2008 2008 More than 65% 37 33 Less than 65% 5 5 65% is about right 46 50 DK/NA 11 12 14. In general, how much influence do you think state government should have on the decisions of local school districts in how they spend their funds? Do you think that state government should have a lot of influence, some, not much, or no influence at all? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl A lot 17% 15% 20% 16% 18% 16% 12% Some 51 55 51 48 49 53 51 Not much 19 18 19 20 18 20 23 No influence 9 10 6 13 11 8 12 DK/NA 3 2 3 3 4 2 2 North/ HvKids HvKids PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE <18 PubSch A lot 15% 20% 15% 11% 21% 19% 19% Some 54 49 52 47 52 52 53 Not much 23 15 20 24 17 19 18 No influence 7 12 10 10 8 8 9 DK/NA - 4 3 7 2 2 - TREND: In general, how much influence do you think state government should have on the decisions of local school districts in how they spend their funds? Do you think that state government should have a lot of influence, some, not much, or no influence at all? Sep 8 Jun 3 2008 2008 A lot 17 16 Some 51 53 Not much 19 18 No influence 9 11 DK/NA 3 2 15. Another proposed constitutional amendment would specifically define marriage as a legal union between a man and a woman, making same-sex marriage illegal in Florida. Do you support or oppose this constitutional amendment defining marriage as a legal union between a man and a woman? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 55% 76% 45% 44% 55% 54% 78% Oppose 41 21 51 51 41 42 20 DK/NA 4 3 4 5 4 4 2 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Support 66% 49% 66% 49% 42% Oppose 31 46 31 47 53 DK/NA 3 5 3 4 5 TREND: Another proposed constitutional amendment would specifically define marriage as a legal union between a man and a woman, making same-sex marriage illegal in Florida. Do you support or oppose this constitutional amendment defining marriage as a legal union between a man and a woman? Sep 8 Jun 3 2008 2008 Support 55 58 Oppose 41 37 DK/NA 4 4 16. Do you think same-sex couples should be allowed legally to marry, should be allowed legally to form civil unions but not marry, or should not be allowed to obtain legal recognition of their relationships? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Marry 27% 13% 39% 30% 23% 32% 13% Civil unions 35 40 26 42 39 32 33 No recognition 31 43 27 23 33 30 50 DK/NA 6 4 8 5 6 6 4 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Marry 20% 28% 21% 25% 39% Civil unions 34 37 35 39 34 No recognition 44 27 39 27 20 DK/NA 2 7 5 9 7 TREND: Do you think same-sex couples should be allowed legally to marry, should be allowed legally to form civil unions, but not marry, or should not be allowed to obtain legal recognition of their relationships? Sep 8 Aug 8 2008 2007 Marry 27 27 Civil unions 35 29 No recognition 31 35 DK/NA 6 9 17. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Governor Charlie Crist responded to Tropical Storm Fay? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 83% 91% 80% 79% 86% 81% 88% Disapprove 5 2 7 5 5 5 3 DK/NA 12 7 12 16 9 14 9 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 90% 81% 83% 87% 79% Disapprove 1 7 5 2 8 DK/NA 9 13 12 11 13
