June 10, 2009 - Crist Swamps Rubio In Florida GOP Senate Bid, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Democratic Contenders Largely Unknown Word format Gov. Charlie Crist swamps former Florida House speaker Marco Rubio 54 - 23 percent in the 2010 Republican primary for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Mel Martinez, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Kendrick Meek, a Congressman from South Florida, leads the field for the Democratic Senate nomination with 18 percent, followed by two other members of Florida's congressional delegation, Corrine Brown with 12 percent and Ron Klein with 8 percent. But 57 percent of voters say they don't yet have a candidate in the race, according to the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey. President Barack Obama remains very popular in the state of Florida with a 58 - 35 percent job approval rating. That compares to the less than 52 percent he received in Florida last November. Obama's job approval rating, however, trails that of Gov. Crist, whose strength across the political spectrum would make him a difficult candidate to beat in a general election for the U.S. Senate. Crist has a 62 - 28 percent job approval rating overall, including a 59 - 30 percent thumbs-up from Democrats. "Marco Rubio says there are many Florida Republicans who don't want Charlie Crist in the U.S. Senate. Depending on how you define the word 'many,' he might be correct. Unfortunately for Rubio at this stage, many, many, many more favor Crist," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Of course Rubio has more than a year until the GOP primary, and he'll need it to turn the race around," Brown added. "To prevail, he must get every undecided voter and win over some who favor Crist. Working against that possibility is that among Republicans, the only ones who can vote in the GOP primary, Crist's favorability is 70 - 21 percent - compared to Rubio's 24 - 8 percent, with 66 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion." Rubio, who is basing his campaign on the notion that he represents new leadership and that Crist is out of touch with the GOP's conservative base, may take some comfort in the data showing that Republicans, by a 56 - 36 percent margin, say a candidate's ideas, rather than experience, is the most important factor in their vote. Republicans also say 89 - 9 percent that a candidate's vision is more important to their vote than who can win the November election. "These results indicate that if Rubio can convince GOP primary voters he is more in tune with them philosophically he might have a chance, but he has a long way to go," Brown said. "Just because he makes that argument doesn't mean Florida Republicans will buy it. Rubio is going to have to convince an awful lot of Republicans who have a favorable impression of Crist that they need to re-evaluate their views. The only practical way to accomplish that would be a well-funded, negative campaign." While Meek is slightly ahead in a Democratic Senate primary, 80 percent of voters statewide, including 74 percent of Democrats, don't know enough about him to form an opinion. Brown and Klein do no better. "None of the Democratic contenders are well-known outside of their own areas," said Brown, "and this race remains wide open. If Congresswoman Brown, who has just recently said she is considering the race, does get into it, that might benefit Klein, since both Brown and Meek are African-American and would likely split that key Democratic constituency." From June 2 - 7, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,245 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. The survey includes 486 Republicans and 477 Democrats, each with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201. 1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Corrine Brown, Ron Klein and Kendrick Meek, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED DEMOCRAT Tot Men Wom Brown 12% 12% 12% Klein 8 10 7 Meek 18 17 18 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 3 DK/NA 57 57 57 TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Corrine Brown, Ron Klein and Kendrick Meek, for whom would you vote? (na:Not Asked) REGISTERED DEMOCRAT............ Jun 10 Apr 16 Feb 18 Jan 21 2009 2009 2009 2009 Brown 12 na na na Klein 8 8 14 9 Meek 18 16 16 13 Iorio na 15 16 na Gelber na 5 5 na Sink na na na 15 Boyd na na na 8 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 2 na WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 4 na DK/NA 57 53 43 54 2. (If registered Republican) If the 2010 Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Marco Rubio and Charlie Crist, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED REPUBLICAN Tot Men Wom Rubio 23% 28% 18% Crist 54 54 53 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 DK/NA 21 15 26 TREND:(If registered Republican) If the 2010 Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Marco Rubio and Charlie Crist, for whom would you vote?(na:Not Asked) REGISTERED REPUBLICAN......... Jun 10 Apr 16 Feb 18 Jan 21 2009 2009 2009 2009 Rubio 23 11 6 6 Crist 54 na na na Bense na 3 4 2 Buchanan na 16 11 10 McCollum na na na 22 Mack na na 34 21 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 2 na WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 5 na DK/NA 21 66 38 40 4. Is your opinion of - Kendrick Meek favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 12% 3% 22% 9% 12% 12% 4% Unfavorable 7 12 3 9 10 5 9 Hvn't hrd enough 80 83 74 81 77 82 85 REFUSED 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 TREND: Is your opinion of - Kendrick Meek favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? (*Congressman Kendrick Meek) Jun 10 Apr 16 Feb 18 Jan 21 Nov 18 2009 2009 2009* 2009* 2008* Favorable 12 11 12 14 14 Unfavorable 7 6 6 6 8 Hvn't hrd enough 80 82 80 79 76 REFUSED 1 1 2 1 2 5. Is your opinion of - Ron Klein favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 11% 6% 15% 10% 12% 10% 7% Unfavorable 5 7 5 4 7 4 6 Hvn't hrd enough 83 85 80 86 80 86 85 REFUSED 1 2 1 - 2 - 2 TREND: Is your opinion of - Ron Klein favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? (*Congressman Ron Klein) Jun 10 Apr 16 Feb 18 Jan 21 2009 2009 2009* 2009* Favorable 11 9 12 11 Unfavorable 5 4 5 6 Hvn't hrd enough 83 86 82 82 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 6. Is your opinion of - Corrine Brown favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 10% 3% 18% 6% 8% 11% 7% Unfavorable 10 19 3 9 13 7 15 Hvn't hrd enough 80 76 79 84 77 81 76 REFUSED 1 3 - 1 1 1 2 7. Is your opinion of - Marco Rubio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 14% 24% 7% 16% 18% 11% 18% Unfavorable 11 8 13 13 15 8 6 Hvn't hrd enough 73 66 80 70 64 80 73 REFUSED 1 3 - 1 2 1 2 TREND: Is your opinion of - Marco Rubio, favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? (*former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio) Jun 10 Apr 16 Feb 18 Jan 21 2009 2009 2009* 2009* Favorable 14 10 12 13 Unfavorable 11 11 18 17 Hvn't hrd enough 73 78 69 69 REFUSED 1 2 1 - 8. Is your opinion of - Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 60% 70% 53% 63% 59% 61% 67% Unfavorable 28 21 33 27 31 25 23 Hvn't hrd enough 9 7 13 6 8 10 5 REFUSED 3 3 2 3 2 3 4 TREND: Is your opinion of - Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Jun 10 Apr 16 Feb 19 Jan 21 Nov 18 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 Favorable 60 64 68 67 65 Unfavorable 28 22 21 21 22 Hvn't hrd enough 9 10 9 10 10 REFUSED 3 3 3 2 2 11. (If registered Republican) Which is more important to you when you decide how to vote in the Republican primary for the United States Senate - the candidate's ideas or the candidate's experience? REGISTERED REPUBLICAN Tot Men Wom Ideas 56% 64% 49% Experience 36 28 43 DK/NA 8 8 8 12. (If registered Republican) Which is more important to you when you decide how to vote in the Republican primary for the United States Senate - the candidate's ability to win the general election or the candidate's views on the issues? REGISTERED REPUBLICAN Tot Men Wom Ability to win 9% 9% 8% Views on issues 89 87 90 DK/NA 3 4 2 13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charlie Crist is handling his job as Governor? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 62% 68% 59% 61% 64% 61% 68% Disapprove 28 21 30 31 30 26 27 DK/NA 10 10 11 8 6 13 5 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 63% 63% 60% 67% 62% Disapprove 25 30 32 21 27 DK/NA 12 8 8 11 11 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charlie Crist is handling his job as Governor? (*also High 73% on 3/29/07) APPROVE....... High Low Jun 10 Apr 15 Feb 18 Jan 21 Nov 18 Jul 19 Apr 10 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 2007* 2008 Approve 62 66 67 65 68 73 59 Disapprove 28 23 22 24 18 11 25 DK/NA 10 11 11 11 13 16 15 14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 35% 39% 34% 33% 34% 36% 43% Disapprove 45 40 47 48 51 40 39 DK/NA 20 21 19 19 15 24 18 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 40% 34% 35% 32% 33% Disapprove 41 45 48 40 47 DK/NA 19 21 17 28 20 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? APPROVE....... High Low Jun 10 Apr 15 Feb 18 Jan 21 Nov 18 Sep 23 Apr 10 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 2004 2008 Approve 35 40 37 40 46 51 32 Disapprove 45 42 42 42 35 34 48 DK/NA 20 18 21 18 19 15 20 15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 49% 38% 58% 50% 53% 46% 45% Disapprove 22 34 13 24 27 19 30 DK/NA 28 28 29 27 20 35 26 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator? APPROVE....... High Low Jun 10 Apr 16 Feb 19 Jan 21 Nov 18 Feb 6 Aug 12 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 2007 2004 Approve 49 52 48 53 51 54 42 Disapprove 22 24 22 19 22 18 18 DK/NA 28 24 30 29 27 28 40 18. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 58% 21% 91% 50% 52% 63% 33% Disapprove 35 69 7 42 42 29 61 DK/NA 7 9 3 8 6 8 7 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? Jun 10 Apr 16 Feb 19 2009 2009 2009 Approve 58 60 64 Disapprove 35 32 23 DK/NA 7 8 13 19. Would you say that Barack Obama is doing a better job as president than you expected, a worse job, or about what you expected? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Better 27% 12% 45% 20% 24% 30% 16% Worse 17 34 3 18 19 15 27 About expected 53 51 49 61 55 51 56 DK/NA 3 3 3 2 2 4 1 TREND: Would you say that Barack Obama is doing a better job as president than you expected, a worse job, or about what you expected? Jun 10 Apr 16 2009 2009 Better 27 28 Worse 17 15 As expected 53 52 DK/NA 3 5 20. Is your opinion of - Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 62% 24% 93% 55% 55% 67% 37% Unfavorable 32 68 5 37 38 28 57 Hvn't hrd enough 4 6 1 5 5 3 3 REFUSED 2 2 1 3 2 2 3 TREND: Is your opinion of - Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? FAVORABLE.... High Low Jun 10 Apr 16 Feb 19 Jan 21 May 22 Feb 19 Feb 07 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 2009 2007 Favorable 62 63 69 66 44 69 37 Unfavorable 32 30 22 16 40 22 18 Hvn't hrd enough 4 5 6 12 14 6 44 REFUSED 2 1 3 5 2 3 1
