August 19, 2009 - Lead Shifts To Republican In Florida Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Crist Ahead 2-1 In GOP Primary For Senate Word format Republican Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum leads the state's Chief Financial Officer, Democrat Alex Sink, 38 - 34 percent among registered voters in the 2010 Governor's race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This reverses a 38 - 34 percent Sink lead in a June 9 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. The key is among independent voters who shift from 32 - 27 percent for McCollum June 9 to 38 - 23 percent today. Gov. Charlie Crist leads former state House Speaker Marco Rubio 55 - 26 percent for the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate, compared to 54 - 23 percent margin June 10. The three potential candidates for the Democratic U.S. Senate nomination, U.S. Reps. Kendrick Meek, Ron Klein and Corrine Brown, are bunched together and largely unknown to most Floridians. "Bill McCollum has been on the ballot in Florida for decades in various campaigns and this exposure to the voters seems to be serving him well," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Floridians know him better than they do Ms. Sink, who first ran for office in 2006. When voters are asked to rate him personally and in his job performance as attorney general he gets strongly positive ratings." Florida voters rate McCollum 42 percent favorably, 13 percent unfavorably. Even Democrats give him a narrow 26 - 23 percent thumbs up. Asked about how he is handling his job as Attorney General, 53 percent approve and 16 percent disapprove. Among Democrats he has a healthy 43 - 26 percent approval rating, and scores 52 - 15 percent among independents. By comparison, Ms. Sink gets a 23 - 8 percent favorability, while 68 percent don't know enough about her to form an opinion. Florida voters approve 37 - 21 percent of Sink's performance as CFO, with 42 percent undecided. She gets a 31 - 20 percent job approval rating from Republicans and a 36 - 21 percent score from independent voters. "Ms. Sink's numbers indicate she has made a good first impression on Florida voters, but a much larger share of the electorate does not know her compared to McCollum," said Brown. Crist's lead over Rubio in a GOP primary shows no gender gap as 56 percent of women and 53 percent of men support him. His 60 - 30 percent job approval as Governor, while his highest disapproval ever, shows that his support extends well beyond his Republican base. Among Republicans, the only ones who can vote in a GOP primary, his rating is 66 - 28 percent. His strength as a general election candidate stems from his 54 - 35 percent positive rating from Democrats and 63 - 27 percent grade among independents. "History is not rife with examples of governors with 60 percent job approval ratings, including 66 percent in their own party and 54 percent from the opposition party, being defeated when they sought U.S. Senate seats. Obviously, we have 15 months until the election and a year before the Republican primary, but Gov. Crist remains in very strong shape," said Brown. U.S. Senators Bill Nelson and Mel Martinez also record their highest disapproval numbers ever, 47 - 28 percent for Nelson and 37 - 39 percent for Martinez. The competition for the Democratic nomination to oppose the Crist-Rubio winner remains wide open: Meek gets 18 percent, with 12 percent for Klein, 9 percent for Brown and 57 percent undecided. Each of the three is so unknown to most Florida voters that 80 percent or more have no opinion of them. "Whoever wins the party nomination has a long way to go to introduce themselves to voters outside of their individual congressional districts," said Brown. From August 12 - 17, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,136 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. The survey includes 446 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points and 434 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201. 1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Corrine Brown, Ron Klein and Kendrick Meek, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED DEMOCRAT Tot Men Wom Brown 9% 9% 9% Klein 12 13 11 Meek 18 19 17 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 4 DK/NA 57 56 58 TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Corrine Brown, Ron Klein . and Kendrick Meek, for whom would you vote? (na:Not Asked) REGISTERED DEMOCRAT.................... Aug 19 Jun 10 Apr 16 Feb 18 Jan 21 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Brown 9 12 na na na Klein 12 8 8 14 9 Meek 18 18 16 16 13 Iorio na na 15 16 na Gelber na na 5 5 na Sink na na na na 15 Boyd na na na na 8 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 - 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 2 4 - DK/NA 57 57 53 43 54 2. (If registered Republican) If the 2010 Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Marco Rubio and Charlie Crist, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED REPUBLICAN Tot Men Wom Rubio 26% 28% 24% Crist 55 53 56 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 - DK/NA 18 17 19 TREND:(If registered Republican) If the 2010 Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Marco Rubio and Charlie Crist, for whom would you vote?(na:Not Asked) REGISTERED REPUBLICAN................. Aug 19 Jun 10 Apr 16 Feb 18 Jan 21 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Rubio 26 23 11 6 6 Crist 55 54 na na na Bense na na 3 4 2 Buchanan na na 16 11 10 McCollum na na na na 22 Mack na na na 34 21 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 2 5 - DK/NA 18 21 66 38 40 3. If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Alex Sink the Democrat and Bill McCollum the Republican, for whom would you vote? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Sink 34% 6% 73% 23% 34% 34% 16% McCollum 38 75 8 38 39 37 62 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 2 - 1 DK/NA 25 17 18 36 23 28 20 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Sink 30% 37% 34% 26% 38% McCollum 47 40 39 36 29 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 3 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 2 1 2 - DK/NA 22 20 23 33 32 TREND: If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Alex Sink the Democrat and Bill McCollum the Republican, for whom would you vote? Aug 19 Jun 9 2009 2009 Sink 34 38 McCollum 38 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 DK/NA 25 25 4. Is your opinion of - Kendrick Meek favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 14% 5% 28% 11% 14% 14% 6% Unfavorable 5 7 2 5 6 3 4 Hvn't hrd enough 80 87 69 83 79 81 90 REFUSED 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 14% 9% 10% 3% 26% Unfavorable 4 5 2 4 7 Hvn't hrd enough 82 84 87 94 63 REFUSED - 2 1 - 3 TREND: Is your opinion of - Kendrick Meek favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? (*Congressman Kendrick Meek) Aug 19 Jun 10 Apr 16 Feb 18 Jan 21 Nov 18 2009 2009 2009 2009* 2009* 2008* Favorable 14 12 11 12 14 14 Unfavorable 5 7 6 6 6 8 Hvn't hrd enough 80 80 82 80 79 76 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 1 2 5. Is your opinion of - Ron Klein favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 11% 7% 20% 7% 12% 11% 5% Unfavorable 6 7 2 9 8 4 8 Hvn't hrd enough 82 86 78 83 79 85 86 REFUSED - - - - 1 - - North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 7% 7% 9% 2% 24% Unfavorable 2 6 3 - 14 Hvn't hrd enough 91 86 88 98 63 REFUSED - - 1 - - TREND: Is your opinion of - Ron Klein favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? (*Congressman Ron Klein) Aug 19 Jun 10 Apr 16 Feb 18 Jan 21 2009 2009 2009 2009* 2009* Favorable 11 11 9 12 11 Unfavorable 6 5 4 5 6 Hvn't hrd enough 82 83 86 82 82 REFUSED - 1 1 1 1 6. Is your opinion of - Corrine Brown favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 8% 3% 17% 6% 9% 8% 6% Unfavorable 10 13 4 12 12 8 17 Hvn't hrd enough 81 84 79 82 79 84 76 REFUSED 1 1 1 - 1 1 1 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 19% 2% 12% - 5% Unfavorable 22 8 12 3 2 Hvn't hrd enough 58 89 75 97 93 REFUSED 1 1 1 - 1 TREND: Is your opinion of - Corrine Brown favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Aug 19 Jun 10 2009 2009 Favorable 8 10% Unfavorable 10 10 Hvn't hrd enough 81 80 REFUSED 1 1 7. Is your opinion of - Marco Rubio, favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 15% 24% 6% 18% 19% 12% 14% Unfavorable 9 6 15 7 10 9 7 Hvn't hrd enough 74 69 78 73 70 78 78 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 18% 20% 13% 13% 13% Unfavorable 7 10 9 9 12 Hvn't hrd enough 75 69 78 78 73 REFUSED 1 1 - - 2 TREND: Is your opinion of - Marco Rubio, favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? (*former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio) Aug 19 Jun 10 Apr 16 Feb 18 Jan 21 2009 2009 2009 2009* 2009* Favorable 15 14 10 12 13 Unfavorable 9 11 11 18 17 Hvn't hrd enough 74 73 78 69 69 REFUSED 1 1 2 1 - 8. Is your opinion of - Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 60% 68% 54% 61% 64% 57% 57% Unfavorable 27 23 30 27 26 28 31 Hvn't hrd enough 9 6 13 7 7 11 8 REFUSED 3 2 4 4 3 4 4 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 63% 68% 52% 66% 58% Unfavorable 28 20 34 21 28 Hvn't hrd enough 7 8 11 7 11 REFUSED 2 5 3 6 3 TREND: Is your opinion of - Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Aug 19 Jun 10 Apr 16 Feb 19 Jan 21 Nov 18 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 Favorable 60 60 64 68 67 65 Unfavorable 27 28 22 21 21 22 Hvn't hrd enough 9 9 10 9 10 10 REFUSED 3 3 3 3 2 2 9. Is your opinion of - Bill McCollum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 42% 61% 26% 44% 48% 36% 59% Unfavorable 13 5 23 12 15 12 11 Hvn't hrd enough 43 34 49 41 36 49 29 REFUSED 2 - 2 3 1 2 1 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 48% 45% 46% 33% 35% Unfavorable 10 13 19 12 11 Hvn't hrd enough 40 40 33 52 52 REFUSED 2 2 2 2 2 TREND: Is your opinion of - Bill McCollum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? (*Attorney General Bill McCollum) Aug 19 Jun 9 Jan 21 2009 2009 2009* Favorable 42 40 40 Unfavorable 13 13 14 Hvn't hrd enough 43 46 44 REFUSED 2 2 1 10. Is your opinion of - Alex Sink favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 23% 13% 36% 21% 25% 21% 17% Unfavorable 8 12 2 10 10 5 12 Hvn't hrd enough 68 73 61 68 64 72 69 REFUSED 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 23% 32% 20% 15% 23% Unfavorable 7 10 9 7 6 Hvn't hrd enough 69 58 69 77 70 REFUSED 1 1 2 2 1 TREND: Is your opinion of - Alex Sink favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? (*Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink) Aug 19 Jun 9 Jan 21 Nov 18 2009 2009 2009* 2008* Favorable 23 25 24 27 Unfavorable 8 7 5 13 Hvn't hrd enough 68 66 70 59 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 11. (If registered Republican) Which is more important to you when you decide how to vote in the Republican primary for the United States Senate - the candidate's ideas or the candidate's experience? REGISTERED REPUBLICAN Tot Men Wom Ideas 62% 67% 57% Experience 30 23 37 DK/NA 8 9 6 TREND: (If registered Republican) Which is more important to you when you decide how to vote in the Republican primary for the United States Senate - the candidate's ideas or the candidate's experience? REGISTERED REPUBLICAN Aug 19 Jun 10 2009 2009 Ideas 62 56 Experience 30 36 DK/NA 8 8 12. (If registered Republican) Which is more important to you when you decide how to vote in the Republican primary for the United States Senate - the candidate's ability to win the general election or the candidate's views on the issues? REGISTERED REPUBLICAN Tot Men Wom Ability to win 4% 6% 2% Views on the issues 93 91 95 DK/NA 3 3 3 TREND: (If registered Republican) Which is more important to you when you decide how to vote in the Republican primary for the United States Senate - the candidate's ability to win the general election or the candidate's views on the issues? REGISTERED REPUBLICAN Aug 19 Jun 10 2009 2009 Ability to win 4 9 Views on issues 93 89 DK/NA 3 3 13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charlie Crist is handling his job as governor? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 60% 66% 54% 63% 64% 56% 57% Disapprove 30 28 35 27 29 31 38 DK/NA 9 5 11 10 7 12 5 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 59% 68% 53% 72% 59% Disapprove 29 25 38 21 31 DK/NA 12 7 9 7 10 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charlie Crist is handling his job as governor? (*also high 73% Mar 2007) APPROVE....... DIS.... High Low High Aug 19 Jun 10 Apr 15 Feb 18 Jul 19 Apr 10 Aug 19 2009 2009 2009 2009 2007* 2008 2009 Approve 60 62 66 67 73 59 60 Disapprove 30 28 23 22 11 25 30 DK/NA 9 10 11 11 16 15 9 14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 34% 44% 27% 33% 35% 34% 37% Disapprove 47 39 52 53 50 45 46 DK/NA 18 17 21 13 15 22 18 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 38% 41% 33% 32% 29% Disapprove 41 44 51 38 54 DK/NA 21 15 16 30 17 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? APPROVE....... High Low Aug 19 Jun 10 Apr 15 Feb 18 Jan 21 Sep 23 Apr 10 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2004 2008 Approve 34 35 40 37 40 51 32 Disapprove 47 45 42 42 42 34 48 DK/NA 18 20 18 21 18 15 20 15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 47% 42% 58% 42% 47% 47% 38% Disapprove 28 33 18 31 35 20 41 DK/NA 25 25 25 27 18 32 21 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 44% 51% 51% 41% 44% Disapprove 31 30 27 32 22 DK/NA 25 19 21 27 34 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator? APPROVE....... DIS.... High Low High Aug 19 Jun 10 Apr 16 Feb 19 Feb 6 Aug 12 Aug 19 2009 2009 2009 2009 2007 2004 2009 Approve 47 49 52 48 54 42 47 Disapprove 28 22 24 22 18 18 28 DK/NA 25 28 24 30 28 40 25 16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mel Martinez is handling his job as United States Senator? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 37% 45% 33% 36% 39% 36% 41% Disapprove 39 33 41 41 42 35 35 DK/NA 24 22 26 22 19 29 24 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 42% 36% 38% 33% 36% Disapprove 28 43 42 42 38 DK/NA 30 21 20 25 26 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mel Martinez is handling his job as United States Senator? APPROVE....... DIS.... High Low High Aug 19 Jun 9 Apr 16 Feb 19 Feb 6 Oct 24 Aug 19 2009 2009 2009 2009 2007 2007 2009 Approve 37 43 42 43 48 35 37 Disapprove 39 31 35 31 22 34 39 DK/NA 24 27 23 26 29 31 24 17. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill McCollum is handling his job as Florida Attorney General? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 53% 66% 43% 52% 58% 47% 58% Disapprove 16 7 26 15 17 15 14 DK/NA 31 27 31 33 25 37 28 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 55% 62% 58% 46% 42% Disapprove 13 16 19 11 18 DK/NA 32 22 23 43 40 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill McCollum is handling his job as Florida Attorney General? APPROVE....... High Low Aug 19 Jun 9 Apr 15 Feb 18 Jan 21 Aug 19 Oct 24 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2007 Approve 53 51 48 48 51 53 44 Disapprove 16 16 18 17 16 16 17 DK/NA 31 33 34 35 33 31 39 18. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Alex Sink is handling her job as Florida's chief financial officer? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 37% 31% 45% 36% 42% 33% 34% Disapprove 21 20 20 21 20 22 24 DK/NA 42 49 34 43 38 45 42 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 42% 45% 43% 31% 25% Disapprove 17 23 22 9 25 DK/NA 41 33 35 60 49 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Alex Sink is handling her job as Florida's chief financial officer?(*Also high 39% Feb 2009) APPROVE....... High Low Aug 19 Jun 9 Apr 15 Feb 18 Jan 21 Jun 9 Feb 18 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009* 2009 Approve 37 39 33 32 39 39 32 Disapprove 21 17 22 22 18 17 22 DK/NA 42 44 46 46 42 44 46 22. Florida has had Republican governors since 1998. Do you think Republican rule has been good for the state or bad for the state? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Good 52% 89% 17% 53% 54% 49% 73% Bad 35 5 69 29 30 39 17 DK/NA 14 6 14 19 16 12 10 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Good 57% 54% 54% 59% 41% Bad 30 34 28 28 46 DK/NA 13 11 18 13 13 TREND: Florida has had Republican governors since 1998. Do you think Republican rule has been good for the state or bad for the state? Aug 19 Jun 9 2009 2009 Good 52 50 Bad 35 37 DK/NA 14 14 23. If Alex Sink is elected Florida's governor she would be Florida's first woman governor. Does this make you more likely to vote for her, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl More likely 10% 1% 19% 8% 7% 13% 7% Less likely 3 6 2 3 3 4 10 Doesn't make diff 84 90 77 86 88 80 80 DK/NA 2 3 1 3 2 3 3 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE More likely 5% 10% 12% 8% 12% Less likely 4 2 6 2 2 Doesn't make diff 88 85 79 89 85 DK/NA 2 4 3 1 2 TREND: If Alex Sink is elected Florida's governor she would be Florida's first woman governor. Does this make you more likely to vote for her, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference? Aug 19 Jun 9 2009 2009 More likely 10 11 Less likely 3 3 Doesn't make diff 84 81 DK/NA 2 5 24. Do you approve or disapprove of Mel Martinez's decision to retire from the United States Senate? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 52% 46% 56% 54% 54% 50% 52% Disapprove 23 33 17 24 25 21 24 DK/NA 24 22 27 21 20 28 24 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 46% 57% 54% 44% 54% Disapprove 23 24 27 19 22 DK/NA 30 19 19 37 24
