January 26, 2010 - Rubio Edges Crist In Florida Gop Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; President Obama Under Water As Voters Disapprove Word format Former State House Speaker Marco Rubio has squeaked past Gov. Charlie Crist in the race for the Republican U.S. Senate nomination, leading 47 - 44 percent and topping Gov. Crist on trust, values and conservative credentials, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Rubio beats the leading Democrat, South Florida Congressman Kendrick Meek, 44 - 35 percent in a general election matchup, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Crist leads Meek 48 - 36 percent. President Barack Obama is under water in Florida as voters disapprove 49 - 45 percent of his job performance, down from a 48 - 46 percent approval rating October 21. Rubio's lead over Crist in the horse race represents a major reversal from October when the Governor led 50 - 35 percent; from August's 55 - 26 percent Crist lead and from June's lead of 54 - 23 percent. "Who would have thunk it? A former state lawmaker virtually unknown outside of his South Florida home whose challenge to an exceedingly popular sitting governor for a U.S. Senate nomination had many insiders scratching their heads. He enters the race 31 points behind and seven months later sneaks into the lead," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "And, the horse race numbers are not a fluke. Rubio also tops Crist on a number of other measurements from registered Republicans, who are the only folks who can vote in the primary. Rubio's grassroots campaigning among Republican activists around the state clearly has paid off. "President Obama, who enjoyed a 64 - 23 percent approval rating in Florida in the first post-inaugural poll last February, is now under water." "It is a reasonable assumption that the anger towards incumbents we are seeing around the country has hurt the Governor, who is the virtual incumbent in this race," Brown added. Taking a more in-depth look at the two U.S. Senate candidates, Republican voters split 43 - 42 percent on whether Rubio or Crist is more likely to keep his campaign promises. But these voters say 45 - 40 percent that Rubio rather than Crist shares their values and 48 - 34 percent that Rubio is more consistently conservative. Rubio gets a 32 - 14 percent favorability rating among Florida voters, with 53 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion. Republicans give him a 53 - 4 percent favorability, with 42 percent who don't know enough. Although Democrats view him negatively 25 - 7 percent, 34 percent of independent voters rate him favorably, with 13 percent unfavorable and 52 percent who don't know enough about him. Crist is viewed favorably among Republicans 64 - 27 percent, 46 - 42 percent among Democrats and 51 - 36 percent among independents. Meek is not nearly as well known as either Republican, as 72 percent of all voters, including 60 percent of Democrats, don't know enough about him to form an opinion. Crist's job approval rating as Governor is 50 - 38 percent, down from 59 - 31 percent in an October 21 Quinnipiac University poll and his lowest grade ever. "In order to defeat Rubio, Gov. Crist is going to have to turn around a perception that he is not as much the true-blue, or true-red, conservative as Rubio," Brown said. "That probably means lots of TV commercials attacking Rubio's conservative credentials." Sen. Bill Nelson gets a 46 - 29 percent approval rating, while his colleague Sen. George Lemieux gets a 21 - 21 percent split, with 58 percent undecided on the recently appointed Senator. From January 20 - 24, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,618 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. The survey includes 673 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 2. (If registered Republican) If the 2010 Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Marco Rubio and Charlie Crist, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED REPUBLICAN...................... Lib/ WtBrnAgn Tot Men Wom Mod Con Evnglcl Rubio 47% 56% 39% 36% 52% 44% Crist 44 37 51 55 39 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - 1 - - DK/NA 8 7 10 8 9 7 TREND: (If registered Republican) If the 2010 Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Marco Rubio and Charlie Crist, for whom would you vote? (na: Not Asked) REGISTERED REPUBLICAN................................. Jan 26 Oct 21 Aug 19 Jun 10 Apr 16 Feb 18 Jan 21 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Rubio 47 35 26 23 11 6 6 Crist 44 50 55 54 na na na Bense na na na na 3 4 2 Buchanan na na na na 16 11 10 McCollum na na na na na na 22 Mack na na na na na 34 21 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 1 1 2 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 1 1 2 5 - DK/NA 8 12 18 21 66 38 40 5.If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Kendrick Meek the Democrat and Charlie Crist the Republican, for whom would you vote? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Meek 36% 8% 69% 33% 32% 39% 20% Crist 48 80 19 48 53 43 65 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 - 2 4 1 1 DK/NA 12 10 11 15 9 15 12 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Meek 33% 34% 36% 23% 44% Crist 51 52 45 55 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 4 10 - DK/NA 13 10 14 11 13 TREND: If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Kendrick Meek the Democrat and Charlie Crist the Republican, for whom would you vote? Jan 26 Oct 21 2010 2009 Meek 36 31 Crist 48 51 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 DK/NA 12 14 6. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Kendrick Meek the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Meek 35% 4% 77% 27% 33% 36% 15% Rubio 44 82 10 41 47 41 59 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 1 2 3 1 - DK/NA 19 13 12 30 15 22 26 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Meek 41% 28% 28% 26% 44% Rubio 44 48 47 45 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 2 2 6 2 DK/NA 14 22 21 22 17 TREND: If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Kendrick Meek the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote? Jan 26 Oct 21 2010 2009 Meek 35 36 Rubio 44 33 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 DK/NA 19 28 7. Is your opinion of - Kendrick Meek favorable unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 18% 5% 34% 17% 18% 19% 6% Unfavorable 8 12 5 9 12 5 10 Hvn't hrd enough 72 82 60 74 69 75 83 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 - North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 15% 14% 13% 11% 32% Unfavorable 6 11 7 3 11 Hvn't hrd enough 79 73 79 86 56 REFUSED - 1 1 - 1 TREND: Is your opinion of - Kendrick Meek favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? FAVORABLE..... High Low Jan 26 Oct 21 Aug 19 Jun 10 Apr 16 Oct 21 Apr 16 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Favorable 18 20 14 12 11 20 11 Unfavorable 8 8 5 7 6 8 6 Hvn't hrd enough 72 71 80 80 82 71 82 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 8. Is your opinion of - Marco Rubio, favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 32% 53% 7% 34% 38% 26% 35% Unfavorable 14 4 25 13 17 12 5 Hvn't hrd enough 53 42 66 52 44 61 58 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 26% 37% 31% 31% 32% Unfavorable 8 11 10 8 27 Hvn't hrd enough 67 50 57 61 39 REFUSED - 2 1 - 2 TREND: Is your opinion of - Marco Rubio, favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? (*former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio) Jan 26 Oct 21 Aug 19 Jun 10 Apr 16 Feb 18 Jan 21 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009* 2009* Favorable 32 24 15 14 10 12 13 Unfavorable 14 11 9 11 11 18 17 Hvn't hrd enough 53 64 74 73 78 69 69 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 2 1 - 9. Is your opinion of - Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 52% 64% 46% 51% 53% 51% 58% Unfavorable 36 27 42 36 39 33 33 Hvn't hrd enough 8 6 8 9 5 11 6 REFUSED 3 3 4 3 2 5 3 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 60% 48% 45% 64% 53% Unfavorable 28 40 42 27 36 Hvn't hrd enough 10 8 10 5 7 REFUSED 2 4 3 3 4 TREND: Is your opinion of - Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? FAVORABLE..... High Low Jan 26 Oct 21 Aug 19 Jun 10 Apr 16 Feb 19 Jan 26 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 Favorable 52 58 60 60 64 68 52 Unfavorable 36 30 27 28 22 21 36 Hvn't hrd enough 8 10 9 9 10 9 8 REFUSED 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charlie Crist is handling his job as Governor? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 50% 62% 40% 51% 51% 48% 58% Disapprove 38 32 43 36 41 36 34 DK/NA 12 7 17 13 8 17 8 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 55% 51% 45% 61% 46% Disapprove 31 39 44 30 39 DK/NA 15 10 11 9 15 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charlie Crist is handling his job as Governor? (*High approve also 73% Mar 2007) APPROVE....... DIS.... High Low High Jan 26 Oct 21 Aug 19 Jun 10 Jul 19 Jan 26 Jan 26 2010 2009 2009 2009 2007* 2010 2010 Approve 50 59 60 62 73 50 50 Disapprove 38 31 30 28 11 38 38 DK/NA 12 11 9 10 16 12 12 14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 36% 53% 26% 31% 37% 34% 46% Disapprove 46 28 59 48 51 42 36 DK/NA 18 20 15 20 12 24 18 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 45% 35% 32% 41% 31% Disapprove 40 46 48 37 51 DK/NA 15 19 20 22 18 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? (*Low approve also 32% Apr 2008) APPROVE....... DIS... High Low High Jan 26 Oct 21 Aug 19 Jun 10 Sep 23 Oct 21 Apr 10 2010 2009 2009 2009 2004 2009* 2008 Approve 36 32 34 35 51 32 32 Disapprove 46 47 47 45 34 47 48 DK/NA 18 21 18 20 15 21 20 15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 46% 38% 59% 43% 43% 48% 41% Disapprove 29 39 18 30 37 22 37 DK/NA 25 22 23 27 19 30 23 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 44% 40% 44% 42% 53% Disapprove 31 38 30 24 23 DK/NA 25 21 26 34 24 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator? APPROVE....... DIS.... High Low High Jan 26 Oct 21 Aug 19 Jun 10 Feb 6 Aug 12 Oct 21 2010 2009 2009 2009 2007 2004 2009 Approve 46 45 47 49 54 42 45 Disapprove 29 31 28 22 18 18 31 DK/NA 25 24 25 28 28 40 24 16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George LeMieux is handling his job as United States Senator? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 21% 29% 17% 19% 24% 18% 21% Disapprove 21 14 26 21 27 15 18 DK/NA 58 57 57 61 49 67 61 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 22% 25% 21% 19% 19% Disapprove 23 22 17 12 23 DK/NA 54 53 62 69 58 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George LeMieux is handling his job as United States Senator? Jan 26 Oct 21 2010 2009 Approve 21 16 Disapprove 21 18 DK/NA 58 66 19. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 45% 13% 82% 44% 41% 48% 19% Disapprove 49 82 11 51 53 45 76 DK/NA 6 6 6 5 5 6 5 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 38% 44% 43% 35% 56% Disapprove 57 52 52 56 36 DK/NA 5 3 5 10 8 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? Jan 26 Oct 21 Aug 20 Jun 10 Apr 16 Feb 19 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Approve 45 48 47 58 60 64 Disapprove 49 46 48 35 32 23 DK/NA 6 6 5 7 8 13 20. (If registered Republican) Regardless of how you intend to vote, Who do you trust more to do in office what they say they will do during the campaign; Marco Rubio or Charlie Crist? REGISTERED REPUBLICAN...................... Lib/ WtBrnAgn Tot Men Wom Mod Con Evnglcl Rubio 43% 52% 34% 27% 51% 40% Crist 42 36 48 55 35 46 NO DIFF(VOL) 5 5 5 3 5 4 DK/NA 10 8 13 15 8 10 21. (If registered Republican) Regardless of how you intend to vote, Who do you believe most shares your values - Marco Rubio or Charlie Crist? REGISTERED REPUBLICAN...................... Lib/ WtBrnAgn Tot Men Wom Mod Con Evnglcl Rubio 45% 56% 35% 31% 52% 39% Crist 40 34 46 52 35 45 NO DIFF(VOL) 2 1 3 1 3 3 DK/NA 13 9 17 17 10 14 22. (If registered Republican) Regardless of how you intend to vote, Who do you see as more consistently conservative - Marco Rubio or Charlie Crist? REGISTERED REPUBLICAN...................... Lib/ WtBrnAgn Tot Men Wom Mod Con Evnglcl Rubio 48% 59% 37% 34% 55% 44% Crist 34 29 40 46 29 33 NO DIFF(VOL) 1 1 1 - 2 2 DK/NA 17 12 22 20 15 21 23. (If registered Republican and voting for Rubio in q2) If you were convinced that Charlie Crist would definitely win the general election in November, but Marco Rubio might not win the general election in November, would that change your vote in the Republican primary for Senator? RUBIO VOTERS Q2 Yes 20% No 74 DK/NA 6
