April 15, 2010 - Rubio Tops Crist By 23 Points In Florida GOP Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Crist As Independent Has Slight Edge In 3-Way Race Word format Marco Rubio has opened up an elephant-sized 56 - 33 percent lead over Gov. Charlie Crist in Florida's U.S. Senate Republican primary, but in a three-way general election with Rubio on the GOP line, Crist as an independent and Democratic U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek, Crist has a razor- thin edge, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Gov. Crist leads Meek 48 - 34 percent in a general election matchup, while Rubio's margin over the Democrat is just 42 - 38 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey finds. If Crist were to file as an independent for the general election, he would get 32 percent of the vote, compared to Rubio's 30 percent and Meek's 24 percent. Rubio, the former speaker of the Florida House of Representatives, has virtually reversed the numbers from last June when he trailed Gov. Crist 54 - 23 percent. He has increased his lead 20 points from a January 26 poll when he edged Crist 47 - 44 percent. "Anything is possible in politics and we have a long way to go until the August primary, but Rubio's surge against a sitting governor from his own party is similar to Ned Lamont's Democratic primary win over Sen. Joseph Lieberman in Connecticut in 2006," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "A year ago, many observers questioned Rubio's sanity for potentially risking his bright future by what most at the time considered a quixotic quest. "Gov. Crist appears a great deal more viable in a November three-way than he is against Rubio in a Republican primary. But having already ruled out an independent candidacy, he would have to reverse himself by the end of the month due to the filing deadline," said Brown. "Such a public reversal might be politically harmful to the governor, but perhaps not compared to his chances against Rubio at this point," Brown added. In a three-way general election: Crist would get 30 percent of Republicans, 27 percent of Democrats and 38 percent of independent voters; Rubio would receive 64 percent of GOP votes, 5 percent from Democrats and 29 percent of independents: Meek, a congressman from South Florida, would get 55 percent of Democratic votes, 15 percent of independents and no Republicans. Meek is much less known than either of the Republicans with 73 percent of voters not knowing enough about him to rate him either favorably or unfavorably. Rubio is rated favorably by 36 percent; unfavorably by 22 percent and 41 percent don't have an opinion. Crist is viewed favorably by 48 percent, unfavorably by 35 percent and just 13 percent don't know enough about him to have an opinion. The size of Rubio's lead over Gov. Crist in a GOP primary is buttressed by a number of other questions. By 54 - 30 percent, registered Republicans, who are the only ones allowed to vote in a GOP primary, say they trust Rubio more than Crist to do in office what he promises in the campaign. By 56 - 32 percent, they say Rubio more than Crist shares their values and by a 59 - 27 percent margin, they cite Rubio as more consistently conservative than Crist. "If Crist remains in the GOP primary, and absent the type of game-changing scandal of which there is no sign, the Governor faces the political equivalent of climbing a 90-degree mountain," said Brown. "But in a three-way, he has a possible path to the U.S. Senate." Florida's two sitting U.S. Senators, Democrat Bill Nelson and Republican George LeMieux, get job approval ratings of 43 - 30 percent and a split 20 - 21 percent respectively. From April 8 - 13, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,250 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. The survey includes 497 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 2. (If registered Republican) If the 2010 Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Marco Rubio and Charlie Crist, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED REPUBLICANS.................... Lib/ WtBrnAgn Tot Men Wom Mod Con Evnglcl Rubio 56% 63% 49% 40% 67% 56% Crist 33 28 39 46 25 33 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 - - - - DK/NA 10 7 12 12 8 11 TREND: (If registered Republican) If the 2010 Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Marco Rubio and Charlie Crist, for whom would you vote? (na: Not Asked) (Data available upon request back to Jan 2009) REGISTERED REPUBLICAN................................. Apr 15 Jan 26 Oct 21 Aug 19 Jun 10 Apr 16 Feb 18 2010 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Rubio 56 47 35 26 23 11 6 Crist 33 44 50 55 54 na na Bense na na na na na 3 4 Buchanan na na na na na 16 11 Mack na na na na na na 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - 1 1 1 2 5 DK/NA 10 8 12 18 21 66 38 5. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Kendrick Meek the Democrat and Charlie Crist the Republican, for whom would you vote? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Meek 34% 9% 63% 26% 30% 36% 19% Crist 48 75 27 49 51 46 59 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 - 3 2 1 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 1 4 3 3 3 DK/NA 14 12 10 17 14 13 15 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Meek 34% 28% 32% 30% 39% Crist 51 54 44 49 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 3 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 2 6 2 1 DK/NA 11 13 16 17 12 TREND: If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Kendrick Meek the Democrat and Charlie Crist the Republican, for whom would you vote? Apr 15 Jan 26 Oct 21 2010 2010 2009 Meek 34 36 31 Crist 48 48 51 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 2 DK/NA 14 12 14 6. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Kendrick Meek the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Meek 38% 4% 76% 32% 33% 43% 18% Rubio 42 82 8 43 48 36 62 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 1 1 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 2 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 17 13 14 22 16 19 16 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Meek 36% 36% 30% 33% 51% Rubio 41 46 46 46 33 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 2 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 2 1 - DK/NA 20 15 21 19 14 TREND: If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Kendrick Meek the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote? Apr 15 Jan 26 Oct 21 2010 2010 2009 Meek 38 35 36 Rubio 42 44 33 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 2 DK/NA 17 19 28 7. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Kendrick Meek the Democrat, Marco Rubio the Republican, and Charlie Crist running as an independent candidate, for whom would you vote? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Meek 24% - 55% 15% 21% 27% 9% Rubio 30 64 5 29 36 25 44 Crist 32 30 27 38 30 34 30 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 - 1 DK/NA 13 6 12 16 11 14 14 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Meek 25% 22% 20% 15% 32% Rubio 31 30 32 37 26 Crist 32 35 30 35 30 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 1 - - DK/NA 12 11 15 13 12 8. Is your opinion of - Kendrick Meek favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 18% 5% 34% 15% 18% 18% 8% Unfavorable 8 17 4 7 11 6 10 Hvn't hrd enough 73 79 61 78 70 75 81 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Kendrick Meek favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? FAVORABLE..... High Low Apr 15 Jan 26 Oct 21 Aug 19 Jun 10 Oct 21 Apr 16 2010 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Favorable 18 18 20 14 12 20 11 Unfavorable 8 8 8 5 7 8 6 Hvn't hrd enough 73 72 71 80 80 71 82 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 9. Is your opinion of - Marco Rubio, favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 36% 67% 13% 32% 44% 28% 48% Unfavorable 22 7 34 21 22 22 13 Hvn't hrd enough 41 25 51 45 34 48 37 REFUSED 1 - 1 2 1 2 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Marco Rubio, favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? FAVORABLE..... High Low Apr 15 Jan 26 Oct 21 Aug 19 Jun 10 Apr 15 Apr 16 2010 2010 2009 2009 2009 2010 2009 Favorable 36 32 24 15 14 36 10 Unfavorable 22 14 11 9 11 22 11 Hvn't hrd enough 41 53 64 74 73 41 78 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 10. Is your opinion of - Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 48% 49% 50% 48% 50% 46% 45% Unfavorable 35 42 30 33 37 34 40 Hvn't hrd enough 13 6 16 16 10 16 13 REFUSED 3 3 4 3 3 4 3 TREND: Is your opinion of Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? FAVORABLE..... High Low Apr 15 Jan 26 Oct 21 Aug 19 Jun 10 Feb 19 Apr 15 2010 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 Favorable 48 52 58 60 60 68 48 Unfavorable 35 36 30 27 28 21 35 Hvn't hrd enough 13 8 10 9 9 9 13 REFUSED 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charlie Crist is handling his job as Governor? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 49% 49% 52% 50% 52% 47% 48% Disapprove 39 42 37 37 39 39 40 DK/NA 12 9 12 13 10 14 13 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 44% 54% 46% 55% 52% Disapprove 42 39 43 34 34 DK/NA 14 8 11 11 14 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charlie Crist is handling his job as Governor? (*High approve also 73% Mar 2007) APPROVE....... DIS.... High Low High Apr 15 Jan 26 Oct 21 Aug 19 Jul 19 Apr 15 Apr 15 2010 2010 2009 2009 2007* 2010 2010 Approve 49 50 59 60 73 49 49 Disapprove 39 38 31 30 11 39 39 DK/NA 12 12 11 9 16 12 12 16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 43% 31% 58% 41% 45% 41% 40% Disapprove 30 47 16 31 35 26 35 DK/NA 26 22 26 28 20 33 25 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 41% 40% 48% 42% 43% Disapprove 31 36 31 34 24 DK/NA 28 24 21 24 33 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator? APPROVE....... DIS.... High Low High Apr 15 Jan 26 Oct 21 Aug 19 Feb 6 Aug 12 Oct 21 2010 2010 2009 2009 2007 2004 2009 Approve 43 46 45 47 54 42 45 Disapprove 30 29 31 28 18 18 31 DK/NA 26 25 24 25 28 40 24 17. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George LeMieux is handling his job as United States Senator? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 20% 26% 19% 16% 24% 17% 19% Disapprove 21 16 27 20 24 18 15 DK/NA 59 58 54 63 52 65 66 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 21% 21% 21% 16% 19% Disapprove 20 21 16 23 25 DK/NA 58 58 63 61 56 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George LeMieux is handling his job as United States Senator? Apr 15 Jan 26 Oct 21 2010 2010 2009 Approve 20 21 16 Disapprove 21 21 18 DK/NA 59 58 66 21. (If registered Republican) Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you - trust more to do in office what they say they will do during the campaign, Marco Rubio or Charlie Crist? REGISTERED REPS.. Tot Men Wom Rubio 54% 59% 48% Crist 30 29 31 NO DIFF(VOL) 6 8 4 DK/NA 11 5 17 TREND: (If registered Republican) Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you trust more to do in office what they say they will do during the campaign, Marco Rubio or Charlie Crist? REGISTERED REPUBLICANS Apr 15 Jan 26 2010 2010 Rubio 54 43 Crist 30 42 NO DIFF(VOL) 6 5 DK/NA 11 10 22. (If registered Republican) Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you - believe most shares your values, Marco Rubio or Charlie Crist? REGISTERED REPS.. Tot Men Wom Rubio 56% 60% 51% Crist 32 32 32 NO DIFF(VOL) 2 2 1 DK/NA 11 6 16 TREND: (If registered Republican) Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you believe most shares your values, Marco Rubio or Charlie Crist? REGISTERED REPUBLICANS Apr 15 Jan 26 2010 2010 Rubio 56 45 Crist 32 40 NO DIFF(VOL) 2 2 DK/NA 11 13 23. (If registered Republican) Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you - see as more consistently conservative, Marco Rubio or Charlie Crist? REGISTERED REPS.. Tot Men Wom Rubio 59% 68% 49% Crist 27 22 32 NO DIFF(VOL) 1 1 - DK/NA 14 8 19 TREND: (If registered Republican) Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you see as more consistently conservative, Marco Rubio or Charlie Crist? REGISTERED REPUBLICANS Apr 15 Jan 26 2010 2010 Rubio 59 48 Crist 27 34 NO DIFF(VOL) 1 1 DK/NA 14 17
