April 19, 2010 - McCollum Leads Tight Florida Governor's Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Obama Approval Up As Voters Back Offshore Drilling Word format Republican State Attorney General Bill McCollum holds a narrow 40 - 36 percent lead over Florida Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink, the Democrat, in the race for Florida governor, while Floridians' view of President Barack Obama is up from a 45 - 49 percent negative in January to 50 - 45 percent positive today, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Voters say 54 - 40 percent that it's a "bad idea" for McCollum to file a lawsuit challenging the federal health care overhaul. Voters say 38 - 28 percent, including 41 - 27 percent among independent voters, that it makes them less likely to support his gubernatorial bid, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey finds. McCollum easily disposes of the challenge by State Sen. Paula Dockery for the Republican nomination 56 - 7 percent, with 34 percent undecided. Ms. Sink has no challengers for the Democratic nomination. Voters approve 51 - 25 percent of the job McCollum is doing as Attorney General and give him a 38 - 18 percent favorability rating, with 41 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion. Ms. Sink gets a 39 - 26 percent approval rating for her job as CFO and a 22 - 15 percent favorability rating, with 61 percent who don't know enough about her to form an opinion. "Attorney General Bill McCollum clings to a slim lead over CFO Alex Sink in the governor's race, a lead he has held since last August. He is better known than she and voters grade him somewhat better for the job he is doing. While most would rather be in his shoes, on the up side of a close race, November is a long way off," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. McCollum's job approval is about the same as Gov. Charlie Crist's, who gets a 49 - 39 percent approval rating. "Ms. Sink's low voter recognition is a double-edged sword: She has an opportunity to introduce herself to a majority of the electorate, while McCollum has the chance to define her in an unflattering way. The next governor is the one who is most successful in selling his or her version," said Brown. "While McCollum's approval rating is better than Sink's or Crist's, his threatened lawsuit to void the new federal health care law doesn't sit well with voters, including independents, historically the key voting group. "Florida voters mostly disapprove of the health care plan 48 - 44 percent, but trying to stop it in court is not a political winner for McCollum, at least at this point," said Brown. The uptick in President Obama's job approval rating among Florida voters is largely due to his improved standing among independent voters, who give him a narrow 48 - 46 percent approval, reversing a 51 - 44 percent disapproval in January. One Obama initiative popular with Floridians is his call for offshore oil drilling. Voters approve of offshore drilling in general 66 - 27 percent and approve drilling off the Florida coast 64 - 28 percent. Support for Obama's proposal to drill off the Florida coast is much greater among Republicans, 79 percent, than it is among Democrats, 53 percent. From April 8 - 13, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,250 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201. 1. (If registered Republican) If the 2010 Republican primary for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Bill McCollum and Paula Dockery, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED REPS.. Tot Men Wom McCollum 56% 58% 53% Dockery 7 7 6 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 DK/NA 34 29 38 TREND: (If registered Republican) If the 2010 Republican primary for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Bill McCollum and Paula Dockery, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED REPUBLICAN Apr 19 Jan 27 Oct 21 2010 2010 2009 McCollum 56 44 43 Dockery 7 6 7 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 2 DK/NA 34 47 47 3. If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Alex Sink the Democrat and Bill McCollum the Republican, for whom would you vote? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Sink 36% 5% 73% 28% 35% 38% 17% McCollum 40 83 7 37 43 36 63 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 4 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 DK/NA 21 10 18 29 19 23 17 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Sink 33% 31% 34% 33% 46% McCollum 40 46 39 43 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 4 1 2 1 DK/NA 24 17 24 21 18 TREND: If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Alex Sink the Democrat and Bill McCollum the Republican, for whom would you vote? Apr 19 Jan 27 Oct 21 Aug 19 Jun 9 2010 2010 2009 2009 2009 Sink 36 31 32 34 38 McCollum 40 41 36 38 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 1 2 DK/NA 21 25 27 25 25 4. If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Alex Sink the Democrat and Paula Dockery the Republican, for whom would you vote? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Sink 37% 9% 69% 29% 36% 37% 17% Dockery 28 59 6 26 31 25 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 DK/NA 32 29 24 40 28 36 35 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Sink 31% 37% 32% 34% 45% Dockery 28 32 28 36 23 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 2 2 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 1 2 2 DK/NA 38 27 36 26 30 TREND: If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Alex Sink the Democrat and Paula Dockery the Republican, for whom would you vote? Apr 19 Jan 27 2010 2010 Sink 37 35 Dockery 28 29 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 DK/NA 32 32 11. Is your opinion of - Bill McCollum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 38% 61% 24% 36% 41% 37% 57% Unfavorable 18 6 32 16 21 16 9 Hvn't hrd enough 41 32 43 47 37 45 33 REFUSED 2 1 2 1 2 2 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Bill McCollum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? (*Attorney General Bill McCollum) Apr 19 Jan 27 Oct 21 Aug 19 Jun 9 Jan 21 2010 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009* Favorable 38 35 34 42 40 40 Unfavorable 18 15 14 13 13 14 Hvn't hrd enough 41 48 50 43 46 44 REFUSED 2 2 2 2 2 1 12. Is your opinion of - Alex Sink favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 22% 11% 34% 21% 24% 21% 16% Unfavorable 15 25 5 17 16 14 24 Hvn't hrd enough 61 61 58 61 58 63 57 REFUSED 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Alex Sink favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? (*Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink) Apr 19 Jan 27 Oct 21 Aug 19 Jun 9 Jan 21 Nov 18 2010 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009* 2008* Favorable 22 24 23 23 25 24 27 Unfavorable 15 8 8 8 7 5 13 Hvn't hrd enough 61 68 68 68 66 70 59 REFUSED 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 13. Is your opinion of - Paula Dockery favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 9% 10% 9% 8% 10% 8% 9% Unfavorable 5 7 4 4 7 3 7 Hvn't hrd enough 85 81 87 87 82 88 83 REFUSED 1 2 - - 1 1 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Paula Dockery favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Apr 19 Jan 27 Oct 21 2010 2010 2009 Favorable 9 8 5 Unfavorable 5 6 3 Hvn't hrd enough 85 85 91 REFUSED 1 1 1 14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charlie Crist is handling his job as Governor? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 49% 49% 52% 50% 52% 47% 48% Disapprove 39 42 37 37 39 39 40 DK/NA 12 9 12 13 10 14 13 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 44% 54% 46% 55% 52% Disapprove 42 39 43 34 34 DK/NA 14 8 11 11 14 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charlie Crist is handling his job as Governor? (*High approve also 73% Mar 2007) APPROVE....... DIS.... High Low High Apr 15 Jan 26 Oct 21 Aug 19 Jul 19 Apr 15 Apr 15 2010 2010 2009 2009 2007* 2010 2010 Approve 49 50 59 60 73 49 49 Disapprove 39 38 31 30 11 39 39 DK/NA 12 12 11 9 16 12 12 15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 32% 43% 28% 28% 32% 31% 34% Disapprove 51 41 56 55 54 48 49 DK/NA 17 16 16 18 13 21 17 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 25% 33% 30% 39% 34% Disapprove 54 54 51 42 50 DK/NA 20 13 19 18 16 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? (*Low approve also 32% Oct 2009 & Apr 2008) APPROVE....... DIS... High Low High Apr 19 Jan 26 Oct 21 Aug 19 Sep 23 Apr 19 Apr 19 2010 2010 2009 2009 2004 2010* 2010 Approve 32 36 32 34 51 32 32 Disapprove 51 46 47 47 34 51 51 DK/NA 17 18 21 18 15 17 17 18. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill McCollum is handling his job as Florida's Attorney General? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 51% 71% 36% 49% 52% 50% 68% Disapprove 25 9 41 23 26 24 12 DK/NA 24 20 23 28 22 26 20 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 52% 52% 51% 59% 47% Disapprove 26 27 25 14 26 DK/NA 22 20 23 27 26 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill McCollum is handling his job as Florida's Attorney General? APPROVE....... High Low Apr 19 Jan 27 Oct 21 Aug 19 Jun 9 Jan 27 Oct 24 2010 2010 2009 2009 2009 2010 2007 Approve 51 56 53 53 51 56 44 Disapprove 25 20 19 16 16 20 17 DK/NA 24 24 27 31 33 24 39 19. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Alex Sink is handling her job as Florida's chief financial officer? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 39% 29% 52% 36% 41% 37% 30% Disapprove 26 34 18 25 26 25 30 DK/NA 35 37 31 38 33 38 40 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 42% 37% 39% 34% 39% Disapprove 19 39 23 29 22 DK/NA 38 23 38 36 39 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Alex Sink is handling her job as Florida's Chief Financial Officer? (*High approve also 39% Jan 2010, Feb 2009 and Jun 2009) APPROVE....... High Low Apr 19 Jan 27 Oct 21 Aug 19 Jun 9 Apr 19 Feb 18 2010 2010 2009 2009 2009 2010* 2009 Approve 39 39 38 37 39 39 32 Disapprove 26 22 23 21 17 26 22 DK/NA 35 40 39 42 44 35 46 20. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 50% 10% 86% 48% 48% 51% 26% Disapprove 45 86 10 46 49 42 68 DK/NA 5 4 4 6 4 7 6 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? Apr 19 Jan 26 Oct 21 Aug 20 Jun 10 Apr 16 Feb 19 2010 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Approve 50 45 48 47 58 60 64 Disapprove 45 49 46 48 35 32 23 DK/NA 5 6 6 5 7 8 13 24. (If voted for Rubio q2) If you were convinced that Charlie Crist would definitely win the general election in November, but Marco Rubio might not win the general election in November, would that change your vote in the Republican primary for Senator? REGISTERED REPS... VOTED FOR RUBIO Q2 Tot Men Wom Yes 18% 20% 16% No 76 77 75 DK/NA 6 3 9 TREND: (If registered Republican and voting for Rubio) If you were convinced that Charlie Crist would definitely win the general election in November, but Marco Rubio might not win the general election in November, would that change your vote in the Republican primary for Senator? REGISTERED REPUBLICANS RUBIO VOTERS.. Apr 19 Jan 26 2010 2010 Yes 18 20 No 76 74 DK/NA 6 6 25. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling - health care? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 44% 7% 80% 42% 44% 44% 18% Disapprove 49 90 13 51 52 47 75 DK/NA 6 3 7 7 4 8 7 26. Who do you trust to do a better job handling health care - President Obama or the Republicans in Congress? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Pres Obama 46% 6% 85% 44% 45% 47% 20% Reps in Congress 34 77 6 29 35 33 55 DK/NA 20 18 9 27 19 20 25 TREND: Who do you trust to do a better job handling health care - President Obama or the Republicans in Congress? Apr 19 Aug 20 2010 2009 President Obama 46 42 Reps in Congress 34 38 DK/NA 20 20 27. From what you've heard or read, do you mostly approve or mostly disapprove of the changes to the health care system just passed by Congress? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Mostly approve 44% 7% 79% 42% 42% 46% 15% Mostly disapprove 48 87 14 47 52 44 75 DK/NA 8 5 8 11 7 10 9 28. If your member of the House of Representatives voted for the health care overhaul just passed by Congress, would that make you more likely to vote for him or her in November, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl More likely 26% 4% 49% 22% 27% 25% 10% Less likely 36 72 7 35 42 31 60 No difference 35 21 43 38 28 40 27 DK/NA 3 3 2 4 3 4 3 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE More likely 28% 24% 23% 23% 30% Less likely 39 41 38 42 27 No difference 30 33 37 25 40 DK/NA 3 2 2 9 3 29. If your member of the House of Representatives voted against the health care overhaul just passed by Congress, would that make you more likely to vote for him or her in November, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl More likely 31% 63% 8% 29% 34% 28% 52% Less likely 29 8 51 27 31 28 18 No difference 35 24 39 39 30 40 24 DK/NA 4 5 2 4 4 3 7 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE More likely 33% 38% 31% 41% 22% Less likely 33 26 26 23 35 No difference 30 33 40 27 40 DK/NA 3 3 4 9 3 30. Does President Obama's handling of health care reform make you think more favorably of him, less favorably, or doesn't it make a difference? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl More favorably 36% 6% 64% 36% 36% 36% 18% Less favorably 42 83 8 43 46 40 64 No difference 20 10 27 19 18 22 17 DK/NA 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 31. Does the Republican party's handling of health care reform make you think more favorably of the party, less favorably, or doesn't it make a difference? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl More favorably 26% 57% 8% 20% 29% 24% 42% Less favorably 43 16 65 47 46 41 25 No difference 27 23 25 30 23 31 28 DK/NA 3 4 1 3 2 4 4 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE More favorably 27% 32% 27% 27% 20% Less favorably 42 39 43 41 48 No difference 30 26 27 22 28 DK/NA 1 3 3 10 3 32. Does the Democratic party's handling of health care reform make you think more favorably of the party, less favorably, or doesn't it make a difference? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl More favorably 27% 4% 54% 22% 29% 26% 14% Less favorably 43 84 12 41 47 40 64 No difference 27 11 32 33 23 31 21 DK/NA 2 1 2 3 1 3 1 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE More favorably 29% 25% 27% 15% 32% Less favorably 45 52 43 54 33 No difference 25 22 28 26 32 DK/NA 1 1 3 5 3 33. Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum and attorneys general from several states have said they will sue to block the recently passed health care overhaul plan. Do you think filing a lawsuit to stop the plan from taking effect is a good idea or a bad idea? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Good idea 40% 77% 9% 39% 43% 36% 66% Bad idea 54 17 88 53 52 56 27 DK/NA 6 6 2 8 4 8 7 34. Does Bill McCollum's decision to file a lawsuit to stop the health care overhaul plan from taking effect make you more likely to vote for him for Governor in November, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl More likely 28% 57% 5% 27% 30% 27% 47% Less likely 38 5 65 41 36 40 19 No difference 31 34 29 30 32 31 32 DK/NA 2 4 1 2 1 3 3 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE More likely 29% 34% 25% 38% 24% Less likely 34 37 33 34 47 No difference 35 26 40 24 27 DK/NA 1 3 2 5 2 35. In general, do you support or oppose the United States increasing the amount of drilling for oil and natural gas in offshore waters? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 66% 86% 48% 68% 75% 57% 79% Oppose 27 11 42 26 21 32 14 DK/NA 8 3 9 7 4 11 8 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Support 64% 65% 73% 64% 61% Oppose 26 25 21 27 33 DK/NA 10 9 5 9 6 TREND: In general, do you support or oppose the United States increasing the amount of drilling for oil and natural gas in offshore waters? Apr 19 Jan 27 2010 2010 Support 66 63 Oppose 27 33 DK/NA 8 4 36. As you may know, President Obama recently announced his plan to expand offshore oil drilling in Florida. Do you think that is a good idea or a bad idea? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Good idea 64% 79% 53% 62% 71% 57% 74% Bad idea 28 14 38 29 23 32 18 DK/NA 9 7 9 9 6 11 8 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Good idea 60% 65% 71% 57% 60% Bad idea 30 28 21 28 31 DK/NA 10 8 7 14 9
