June 10, 2010 - Scott Tops Mccollum In Florida GOP Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Dem Senate Primary Race Too Close To Call Word format Political neophyte Rick Scott has surged to a 44 - 31 percent lead over Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum in the race for the Republican nomination for governor, apparently powered by a multi-million dollar television ad blitz to introduce him to voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. In the contest for the Democratic U.S. Senate nomination, Jeff Greene, another political unknown with deep pockets, is following a similar approach of large TV ad spending to move into a statistical dead heat with Kendrick Meek, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey finds: Meek gets 29 percent to Greene's 27 percent with former Miami Mayor Maurice Ferre at 3 percent. The biggest number, 37 percent, are undecided. The winner of the Democratic Senate nomination will face Gov. Charlie Crist, running as an independent, and Republican Marco Rubio in November. The winner of the GOP nomination for governor will face Democrat Alex Sink and independent Bud Chiles in the general election. Although six in 10 voters in both contests say they could still change their minds before the August 24 primary, the results in both races show just how potentially powerful the combination of money and an anti-establishment candidacy can be this election year. "Mothers may tell their children that money can't buy happiness, but what these results show is that money can buy enough television ads to make political neophytes serious contenders for major political office," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "It certainly doesn't hurt with Greene or Scott that this is shaping up to be the year of the anti-establishment candidate." "Around the country, challengers to so-called career politicians seem to be doing well, and these showings by Scott and Greene certainly fit very well into that trend," Brown added. Scott, a former health care executive, began running television commercials this spring when McCollum held a huge lead over State Sen. Paula Dockery, his only challenger for the GOP nomination for governor. But she dropped out of the race once the size of Scott's financial resources and willingness to spend became apparent. "In addition to being a testament to the power of television, Scott's ability to take the lead so quickly is also a reflection on McCollum's lack of strong support within his own party despite his two decades in Florida politics," said Brown. Scott is viewed favorably by 40 percent of Republicans; unfavorably by 12 percent and 46 percent say they don't know enough about him to form an opinion. McCollum, in his third statewide race and having spent a decade in Congress, is viewed favorably by 41 percent; unfavorably by 19 percent and 36 percent don't have an opinion. Many of Scott's television ads have been devoted to his support for an immigration law similar to Arizona's. In a separate survey of 1,133 registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent, Republicans approve of the Arizona immigration law 86 - 7 percent and want a similar statute in Florida 84 - 10 percent. In the Democratic Senate primary, Greene is almost as well known as Meek, a four-term congressman from South Florida. Asked to rate him, 23 percent of Democrats view Greene favorably, 10 percent unfavorably and 64 percent don't know enough about him to have an opinion. Meek, by comparison, is viewed favorably by 29 percent; unfavorably by 8 percent and 59 percent don't have an opinion. From June 2 - 8, Quinnipiac University surveyed 814 Republican likely primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points and 785 Democratic likely primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1a. If the Republican primary for Governor were being held today, would you vote for Bill McCollum or Rick Scott? (If undecided q1a) As of today, would you say that you lean a little more toward McCollum or Scott? (This table includes "Leaners".) LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom McCollum 31% 29% 33% Scott 44 48 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 24 22 25 1aa. (If express choice q1a) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS CAND CHOICE GIVEN Q1a CAND CHOICE Q1a Tot BM RS Made up 39% 37% 40% Might change 59 61 58 DK/NA 2 3 2 2a. Is your opinion of - Rick Scott favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Favorable 40% 46% 34% Unfavorable 12 11 12 Hvn't hrd enough 46 40 51 REFUSED 3 3 2 3a. Is your opinion of - Bill McCollum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Favorable 41% 44% 38% Unfavorable 19 21 17 Hvn't hrd enough 36 30 41 REFUSED 4 5 4 1b. If the Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today, would you vote for Kendrick Meek, Maurice Ferre, or Jeff Greene? (If undecided q1b) As of today, would you say that you lean a little more toward Meek, Ferre, or Greene? (This table includes "Leaners".) LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Meek 29% 33% 26% Ferre 3 3 3 Greene 27 26 28 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 37 35 39 1ab. (If express choice q1b) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary? (*Sample size too small to consider) LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS.. CAND CHOICE GIVEN Q1b...... CAND CHOICE Q1b..... Tot Meek Ferre* Greene Made up 36% 43% 28% Might change 62 55 69 DK/NA 3 2 3 2b. Is your opinion of - Kendrick Meek favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Favorable 29% 31% 28% Unfavorable 8 11 6 Hvn't hrd enough 59 54 63 REFUSED 3 4 3 3b. Is your opinion of - Jeff Greene favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Favorable 23% 25% 22% Unfavorable 10 9 10 Hvn't hrd enough 64 63 65 REFUSED 3 3 3 4b. Is your opinion of - Maurice Ferre favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Favorable 8% 10% 6% Unfavorable 6 8 6 Hvn't hrd enough 83 80 86 REFUSED 3 3 3 29. Do you think immigration reform should primarily move in the direction of integrating illegal immigrants into American society or in the direction of stricter enforcement of laws against illegal immigration? REGISTERED VOTERS................................. WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Integrating 24% 8% 39% 28% 21% 27% 13% Enforcement 68 90 44 66 73 63 83 DK/NA 8 2 17 5 7 10 4 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Integrating 21% 22% 19% 20% 33% Enforcement 73 67 74 71 57 DK/NA 7 10 7 9 9 TREND: Do you think immigration reform should primarily move in the direction of integrating illegal immigrants into American society or in the direction of stricter enforcement of laws against illegal immigration? Jun 10 Dec 5 2010 2007 Integrating 24 24 Enforcement 68 66 DK/NA 8 10 30. Based on what you've heard or read, do you approve or disapprove of Arizona's new immigration law? REGISTERED VOTERS................................. WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 59% 86% 31% 56% 68% 51% 76% Disapprove 29 7 51 34 25 32 13 DK/NA 12 7 18 10 7 16 11 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 63% 60% 65% 72% 46% Disapprove 23 27 24 18 41 DK/NA 14 13 10 10 12 31. Would you want Florida to pass a law similar to Arizona's new immigration law or not? REGISTERED VOTERS................................. WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Yes 55% 84% 26% 50% 61% 49% 73% No 34 10 56 41 31 37 16 DK/NA 11 6 18 9 8 14 11 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Yes 54% 54% 63% 71% 43% No 35 33 27 21 44 DK/NA 11 13 10 8 13 32. Do you think Arizona's new immigration law will or will not lead to discrimination against Hispanics? REGISTERED VOTERS................................. WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Will 37% 12% 59% 43% 32% 41% 22% Will not 51 77 26 49 57 46 66 DK/NA 12 11 16 9 11 13 12 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Will 32% 37% 31% 29% 49% Will not 55 51 55 61 42 DK/NA 14 12 14 10 10 33. Some have suggested that Arizona should be boycotted because of its new immigration law. Do you think a boycott of Arizona is a good idea or a bad idea? REGISTERED VOTERS................................. WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Good idea 11% 4% 18% 12% 10% 11% 5% Bad idea 83 94 71 84 82 83 91 DK/NA 6 2 11 4 7 6 4 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Good idea 9% 10% 12% 3% 15% Bad idea 83 82 82 91 80 DK/NA 8 7 6 6 5
