August 18, 2010 - 'Insiders' Back On Top In Florida Primaries, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Mccollum, Meek Lead, But Races Are Volatile Word format Two so-called "insiders" in Florida, Republican Attorney General Bill McCollum and Democratic U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek, have come from behind to overtake so-called "outsiders" in the August 24 Republican and Democratic primaries, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. In the Republican primary for Governor, McCollum leads Rick Scott 44 - 35 percent among likely primary voters, reversing a 43 - 32 percent Scott lead in a July 29 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. In the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, Rep. Meek leads Jeff Greene 35 - 28 percent among likely voters, reversing a 33 - 23 percent Greene lead July 29. Former Miami Mayor Maurice Ferre is at 6 percent, compared to 4 percent on July 29. But the races remain volatile as 19 percent of Republican voters remain undecided and 32 percent of those who do name a candidate say they could change their mind. Among Democrats, 29 percent are undecided and 39 percent of those who name a candidate could change their mind. McCollum has catapulted ahead of Scott, a retired health care executive, based upon the votes of women, who favor McCollum 48 - 31 percent, while men split 39 - 40 percent. Meek leads 33 - 29 percent among women and 37 - 28 percent among men. "The empire strikes back, actually both empires, that is, the folks who run the Democratic and Republican parties in Florida have waded into the nomination fights and they are making a difference," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "The Attorney General Bill McCollum and Congressman Kendrick Meek campaigns have been able to break through the television roadblocks that made the previously unknown Rick Scott and Jeff Greene front-runners in their respective races," Brown added. "With help from big names like former Gov. Jeb Bush and big donations from GOP heavy hitters, McCollum has made GOP voters rethink their views about Scott and his record as a businessman. Meek has campaigned with former President Bill Clinton. He also has put two matters in the minds of Democratic primary voters - that Greene once ran for office as a Republican, and that he made billions betting homeowners would default on their mortgages." The McCollum and Meek ad campaigns seem to be taking a toll on their opponents' favorability ratings. Greene is down from a 31 - 18 percent favorability rating July 29 to a negative 25 - 36 percent favorability today. Meek, on the other hand, has gone from 28 - 13 percent favorable to 36 - 23 percent favorable in the eyes of Democratic likely primary voters. On the Republican side, Scott's 39 - 26 favorable rating July 29 has dropped to a 34 - 33 percent split, with McCollum's favorability at 45 - 30 percent. The "outsider" appeal has faded with GOP likely voters. By 42 - 35 percent they say they would prefer a government outsider, favoring Scott who has never before run for office, rather than McCollum, a fixture in Florida politics for more than two decades. That's down from 54 - 28 percent for an outsider July 29. In that July 29 Quinnipiac poll, likely GOP primary voters said 38 - 26 percent that Scott most shared their values, while today they say 39 - 29 percent that McCollum does. In the Democratic race, Greene's 26 - 21 percent lead over Meek on who most shares voters' values has turned into a 33 - 23 percent Meek advantage. "Although this is clearly the year of the outsider, the reverse of that may be in the offing in Florida," said Brown. "But nothing is for certain and the large number of undecideds and voters whose commitment to their candidate is soft makes anything possible." From August 11 - 16, Quinnipiac University surveyed 807 Republican likely primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points and 814 Democratic likely primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points. These likely voters were selected from lists of people who have voted in past elections. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201. THE FOLLOWING RESULTS ARE BASED ON A POLL OF 807 LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS 1R. If the Republican primary for Governor were being held today, would you vote for Bill McCollum or Rick Scott? (If undecided q1R) As of today, would you say that you lean a little more toward McCollum or Scott? (This table includes "Leaners") LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom McCollum 44% 39% 48% Scott 35 40 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 19 18 20 TREND: If the Republican primary for Governor were being held today, would you vote for Bill McCollum or Rick Scott? (If undecided) As of today, would you say that you lean a little more toward McCollum or Scott? (This table includes "Leaners") LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Aug 18 Jul 29 Jun 10 2010 2010 2010 McCollum 44 32 31 Scott 35 43 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 19 23 24 1Ra. (If express choice q1R) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS CAND CHOICE GIVEN Q1R.... CAND CHOICE Q1R... Tot BM RS Made up 67% 66% 68% Might change 32 32 31 DK/NA 1 2 - TREND: (If express choice) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS CAND CHOICE GIVEN..... Aug 18 Jul 29 Jun 10 2010 2010 2010 Made up 67 55 39 Might change 32 43 59 DK/NA 1 2 2 2R. Is your opinion of - Rick Scott favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Favorable 34% 37% 31% Unfavorable 33 29 37 Hvn't hrd enough 27 27 26 REFUSED 7 7 6 TREND: Is your opinion of Rick Scott favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Aug 18 Jul 29 Jun 10 2010 2010 2010 Favorable 34 39 40 Unfavorable 33 26 12 Hvn't hrd enough 27 31 46 REFUSED 7 5 3 3R. Is your opinion of - Bill McCollum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Favorable 45% 46% 44% Unfavorable 30 31 30 Hvn't hrd enough 20 18 22 REFUSED 5 5 4 TREND: Is your opinion of Bill McCollum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Aug 18 Jul 29 Jun 10 2010 2010 2010 Favorable 45 34 41 Unfavorable 30 34 19 Hvn't hrd enough 20 27 36 REFUSED 5 5 4 4R. Which type of candidate would you prefer to see as governor - someone with years of government experience or a government outsider? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Experience 35% 29% 40% Outsider 42 49 36 DK/NA 23 22 24 TREND: Which type of candidate would you prefer to see as governor - someone with years of government experience or a government outsider? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Aug 18 Jul 29 2010 2010 Experience 35 28 Outsider 42 54 DK/NA 23 18 5R. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you - think would do a better job rebuilding Florida's economy Bill McCollum or Rick Scott? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom McCollum 33% 32% 34% Scott 37 42 34 NO DIFF(VOL) 4 5 4 DK/NA 25 21 29 TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job rebuilding Florida's economy, Bill McCollum or Rick Scott? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Aug 18 Jul 29 2010 2010 McCollum 33 23 Scott 37 45 NO DIFF(VOL) 4 5 DK/NA 25 27 6R. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you - believe most shares your values Bill McCollum or Rick Scott? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom McCollum 39% 38% 41% Scott 29 34 25 NO DIFF(VOL) 6 6 5 DK/NA 26 23 29 TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you believe most shares your values, Bill McCollum or Rick Scott? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Aug 18 Jul 29 2010 2010 McCollum 39 26 Scott 29 38 NO DIFF(VOL) 6 7 DK/NA 26 29 7R. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you - see as more consistently conservative Bill McCollum or Rick Scott? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom McCollum 38% 33% 42% Scott 32 39 26 NO DIFF(VOL) 4 4 4 DK/NA 26 24 28 TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you see as the most consistently conservative, Bill McCollum or Rick Scott? LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Aug 18 Jul 29 2010 2010 McCollum 38 26 Scott 32 38 NO DIFF(VOL) 4 5 DK/NA 26 32 THE FOLLOWING RESULTS ARE BASED ON A POLL OF 814 LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS 1D. If the Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today, would you vote for Kendrick Meek, Maurice Ferre, or Jeff Greene? (If undecided q1D) As of today, would you say that you lean a little more toward Meek, Ferre, or Greene? (This table includes "Leaners") LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Meek 35% 37% 33% Ferre 6 6 6 Greene 28 28 29 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 29 27 30 TREND: If the Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today, would you vote for Kendrick Meek, Maurice Ferre, or Jeff Greene? (If undecided) As of today, would you say that you lean a little more toward Meek, Ferre, or Greene? (This table includes "Leaners") LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Aug 18 Jul 29 Jun 10 2010 2010 2010 Meek 35 23 29 Ferre 6 4 3 Greene 28 33 27 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 3 - DK/NA 29 35 37 1DEMa. (If express choice q1D) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS.. CAND CHOICE GIVEN Q1D...... CAND CHOICE Q1D..... Tot Meek Greene Made up 58% 73% 43% Might change 39 26 52 DK/NA 3 1 5 TREND: (If express choice) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS CAND CHOICE GIVEN..... Aug 18 Jul 29 Jun 10 2010 2010 2010 Made up 58 43 36 Might change 39 54 62 DK/NA 3 2 3 2D. Is your opinion of - Kendrick Meek favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Favorable 36% 38% 35% Unfavorable 23 25 21 Hvn't hrd enough 34 32 36 REFUSED 7 5 8 TREND: Is your opinion of Kendrick Meek favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Aug 18 Jul 29 Jun 10 2010 2010 2010 Favorable 36 28 29 Unfavorable 23 13 8 Hvn't hrd enough 34 55 59 REFUSED 7 4 3 3D. Is your opinion of - Jeff Greene favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Favorable 25% 24% 26% Unfavorable 36 40 34 Hvn't hrd enough 33 32 33 REFUSED 7 4 8 TREND: Is your opinion of Jeff Greene favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Aug 18 Jul 29 Jun 10 2010 2010 2010 Favorable 25 31 23 Unfavorable 36 18 10 Hvn't hrd enough 33 47 64 REFUSED 7 5 3 4D. Is your opinion of - Maurice Ferre favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Favorable 8% 8% 8% Unfavorable 9 12 7 Hvn't hrd enough 79 77 80 REFUSED 4 3 5 TREND: Is your opinion of Maurice Ferre favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Aug 18 Jul 29 Jun 10 2010 2010 2010 Favorable 8 8 8 Unfavorable 9 8 6 Hvn't hrd enough 79 79 83 REFUSED 4 4 3 5D. Which type of candidate would you prefer to see as a United States Senator, someone with years of government experience or a government outsider? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Experience 44% 43% 45% Outsider 31 34 29 DK/NA 25 23 27 TREND: Which type of candidate would you prefer to see as a United States Senator, someone with years of government experience or a government outsider? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Aug 18 Jul 29 2010 2010 Experience 44 44 Outsider 31 35 DK/NA 25 21 6D. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you - believe most shares your values Kendrick Meek, Jeff Greene or Maurice Ferre? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Meek 33% 36% 32% Greene 23 22 24 Ferre 5 5 5 NO DIFF(VOL) 6 8 5 DK/NA 33 29 35 TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you believe most shares your values - Kendrick Meek, Jeff Greene or Maurice Ferre? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Aug 18 Jul 29 2010 2010 Meek 33 21 Greene 23 26 Ferre 5 3 NO DIFF(VOL) 6 4 DK/NA 33 46 7D. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you - see as the most consistently liberal Kendrick Meek, Jeff Greene or Maurice Ferre? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Meek 34% 40% 31% Greene 16 12 18 Ferre 3 3 3 NO DIFF(VOL) 4 7 2 DK/NA 43 37 46 TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you see as the most consistently liberal - Kendrick Meek, Jeff Greene or Maurice Ferre? LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Aug 18 Jul 29 2010 2010 Meek 34 22 Greene 16 16 Ferre 3 3 NO DIFF(VOL) 4 2 DK/NA 43 57
