October 12, 2010 - Scott, Sink In Dead Heat In Florida Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Democrat Wins 'ethics' Contest Word format Closing the Florida governor's race to a dead heat, Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink, the Democrat, now has 44 percent of likely voters to Republican Rick Scott's 45 percent, compared to the Republican's 49 - 43 percent lead October 1, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Ms. Sink's surge could be tied to voter belief, 44 - 28 percent, that she was a more ethical businessperson than Scott when both were in the private sector, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey finds. A total of 89 percent of likely voters say a candidate's record in business is either somewhat or very important to their vote choice. By a 42 - 37 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of Sink, while Scott gets a negative 39 - 46 percent favorability rating. This compares to the October 1 survey showing her with a split 39 - 39 percent favorability, compared to Scott's split 41 - 40 percent. "In the last two weeks, Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink has moved into a statistical tie with Rick Scott. Her image has improved while his has deteriorated. It would seem that the debate through television ads about their respective business careers may be the reason," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "At this point she is winning that debate handily and it is having an impact on the race. "How the voters feel about the economy is also directly tied to their vote: Among those who think the economy is improving, Ms. Sink leads 69 - 22 percent, while Scott leads 58 - 25 percent among voters who see the economy getting worse." Only 20 percent of Florida likely voters say the state economy is getting better, while 34 percent say it is getting worse and 43 percent say it is about the same. Florida independent likely voters say 50 - 24 percent that Sink, the former president of Bank of America's Florida division, was more ethical in business than Scott, the former CEO of Columbia/HCA, the nation's largest hospital chain. In the horse race, Sink leads Scott 82 - 7 percent among Democrats while Scott leads 83 - 8 percent among Republicans. Independent voters, who backed Scott 46 - 40 percent October 1, now back Sink 51 - 34 percent. He has a 48 - 42 percent lead among men, while she leads 47 - 41 percent among women. Scott leads 65 - 20 percent among white evangelical Christians; 15 percent of that group are undecided or for another candidate, larger than among the overall electorate. "How that group finally comes down could be a key to the election. White evangelical Christians are a Republican group, but the relatively larger number of undecided voters might indicate some may be holding back from Scott because of the charges about his business conduct," said Brown. "Among many of those voters it may be a question of whether to vote for Scott or not vote in the governor's race. "The big reason for Sink's move into parity with Scott has been the turnaround in independent voters, who are often the key to victory in close races," said Brown. "Because they are not members of either party, independents are the most likely to be moved by questions about a candidate's ethics." Most voters, 86 percent, say their minds are made up and they will not switch their allegiance, with 13 percent - equally split among Sink and Scott voters - saying they might change their minds. From October 6 - 10, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,055 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201. 1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Alex Sinkthe Democrat and Rick Scott the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If youhad to choose today, would you vote for Sink or Scott? (This table includes Leaners) LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Sink 44% 8% 82% 51% 42% 47% 20% Scott 45 83 7 34 48 41 65 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 3 2 2 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 9 6 10 12 8 10 11 PrtOf RATING ECONOMY Q16 TeaPt Better Worse Same Sink 7% 69% 25% 45% Scott 84 22 58 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 - 4 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - DK/NA 5 9 12 7 TREND: If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Alex Sink the Democrat and Rick Scott the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Sink or Scott? (This table includes Leaners) LIKELY VOTERS.. Oct 12 Oct 1 2010 2010 Sink 44 43 Scott 45 49 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - DK/NA 9 7 1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS........ CAND CHOICE Q1 Tot AS RS Made up 86% 86% 86% Might change 13 13 13 DK/NA 1 1 1 2. Is your opinion of - Alex Sink favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 42% 18% 72% 43% 42% 42% 29% Unfavorable 37 62 8 34 38 35 56 Hvn't hrd enough 18 18 18 19 18 19 13 REFUSED 3 3 3 3 2 5 2 TREND: Is your opinion of - Alex Sink favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? LIKELY VOTERS.. Oct 12 Oct 01 2010 2010 Favorable 42 39 Unfavorable 37 39 Hvn't hrd enough 18 19 REFUSED 3 3 3. Is your opinion of - Rick Scott favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 39% 68% 10% 34% 42% 35% 57% Unfavorable 46 21 71 51 45 47 31 Hvn't hrd enough 12 8 15 12 10 14 9 REFUSED 3 3 4 3 3 4 3 TREND: Is your opinion of - Rick Scott favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS.. Oct 12 Oct 01 2010 2010 Favorable 39 41 Unfavorable 46 40 Hvn't hrd enough 12 17 REFUSED 3 2 11. Turning back to the race for Governor, regardless of how you intend to vote, whose record as a businessperson do you think was more ethical Alex Sink's or Rick Scott's? LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Sink 44% 18% 74% 50% 46% 43% 25% Scott 28 51 6 24 28 29 45 NO DIFFERENCE(VOL) 11 15 4 12 12 9 15 DK/NA 16 17 16 14 14 18 15 12. When deciding how to vote for Governor, how important is the candidate's record as a businessperson, very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not important at all? LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Very important 56% 62% 51% 50% 53% 59% 59% Smwht important 33 35 29 37 35 31 37 Not too important 6 1 10 9 7 4 3 Not important at all 4 2 9 2 4 5 2 DK/NA 1 - 1 2 1 1 - RATING ECONOMY 16 Better Worse Same Very important 49% 64% 52% Smwht important 34 29 38 Not too important 7 2 6 Not imptnt at all 9 4 3 DK/NA 2 - 1 15. Would you describe the state of Florida's economy these days as excellent, good, not so good, or poor? LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Excellent - - - - - - - Good 12 12 11 15 13 12 13 Not so good 44 34 59 38 43 44 40 Poor 44 54 28 46 44 44 47 DK/NA 1 - 1 - - 1 - 16. Do you think Florida's economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same? LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Better 20% 13% 31% 16% 22% 17% 15% Worse 34 43 26 31 29 40 39 The same 43 44 38 48 46 40 45 DK/NA 3 1 5 4 2 4 1 17. Do you consider yourself part of the Tea party movement or not? LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Yes 21% 38% 4% 20% 22% 21% 35% No 74 59 90 77 75 73 63 DK/NA 4 4 6 2 3 6 2
