October 13, 2010 - Rubio Shows Crist His Heels In Florida Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Democrat Meek A Distant Third Word format In the Florida U.S. Senate race, Republican Marco Rubio is running away with a commanding 44 - 30 percent likely voter lead over Gov. Charlie Crist, running as an independent, with Democrat U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek third with 22 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Today's results are essentially unchanged from a September 30 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, in which Rubio led Crist 46 - 33 percent with Meek getting 18 percent of likely voters. Florida likely voters disapprove of President Barack Obama's job performance 54 - 43 percent, a slight improvement from October 1 when they disapproved 56 - 40 percent. "As the clock ticks down to Election Day, there is no evidence that Marco Rubio's lead is narrowing. Anything is possible since there are still three weeks left in the campaign, but it appears Rubio's opponents will need an earth-shaking development to deny him the U.S. Senate seat," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Gov. Charlie Crist's best chance for victory all along required that he outpoll Meek among Democrats and get half the independent vote. He is doing neither." Rubio is getting 85 percent of the Republican vote, 32 percent of independents and 5 percent of Democrats. Crist, elected governor four years ago on the GOP ticket, is getting 13 percent of Republicans, 38 percent of Democrats and 42 percent of independents. Meek gets 1 percent of the GOP vote, 19 percent among independents and 50 percent of Democrats. Rubio gets 49 percent of the men and 37 percent from women likely voters. Crist gets 29 percent of men and 31 percent of women, while Meek wins 18 percent of men and 26 percent of women. Rubio gets 68 percent of the white evangelical vote, compared to 18 percent for Crist and 10 percent for Meek. "Rubio's stranglehold on the Republican vote and competitive position among independents makes up for his negligible showing among Democrats," said Brown. "Moreover, his vote is much more solid than his opponents, since only 8 percent of his supporters say they might change their mind, compared to 26 percent of Crist backers and 29 percent of Meek supporters." Rubio is viewed favorably by 48 percent of voters and unfavorably by 34 percent. Crist gets a split 45 - 47 percent favorability and Meek gets a slightly negative 33 - 36 percent score. The backing for Rubio is reflected in a 52 - 42 percent preference among likely voters for a U.S. senator who opposes rather than supports President Obama's policies. By a 46 - 37 percent margin, Florida likely voters want Republicans to control the U.S. Senate. "Rubio has tried to make this election between himself and President Obama's policies, not between himself and Crist or Meek. Given the attitudes of likely voters, that has proven to be a smart strategy that appears likely to bear fruit on Election Day," said Brown. Crist, once again, appears to have made the wrong choice about his future. Despite trailing badly in the Senate race, he gets a 51 - 43 percent job approval as governor, typically the kind of rating that leads to a re-election. "Crist probably should not have quit his day job," said Brown of Crist. From October 6 - 10, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,055 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201. 4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Kendrick Meek the Democrat, Marco Rubio the Republican, and Charlie Crist running as an independent, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Meek, Rubio,or Crist? (This table includes Leaners) LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Meek 22% 1% 50% 19% 18% 26% 10% Rubio 44 85 5 32 49 37 68 Crist 30 13 38 42 29 31 18 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 4 1 7 5 4 5 3 PrtOf RATING ECONOMY Q16 TeaPt Better Worse Same Meek 1% 27% 21% 18% Rubio 86 20 59 45 Crist 12 49 17 32 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - DK/NA 1 4 4 5 TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Kendrick Meek the Democrat, Marco Rubio the Republican, and (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Meek, Rubio,or Crist?(This table includes Leaners) LIKELY VOTERS.. Oct 13 Sep 30 2010 2010 Meek 22 18 Rubio 44 46 Crist 30 33 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - DK/NA 4 3 4a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS.......... CAND CHOICE Q4.. Tot KM MR CC Made up 81% 70% 92% 74% Might change 18 29 8 26 DK/NA - 1 - - 5. Is your opinion of - Kendrick Meek favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 33% 14% 60% 32% 30% 37% 21% Unfavorable 36 56 13 34 40 31 53 Hvn't hrd enough 28 28 25 31 27 30 24 REFUSED 2 1 2 3 2 2 2 TREND: Is your opinion of - Kendrick Meek favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS.. Oct 13 Sep 30 2010 2010 Favorable 33 29 Unfavorable 36 39 Hvn't hrd enough 28 31 REFUSED 2 1 6. Is your opinion of - Marco Rubio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 48% 84% 15% 37% 52% 43% 66% Unfavorable 34 5 60 44 32 37 16 Hvn't hrd enough 17 11 24 17 15 19 17 REFUSED 1 - 1 2 1 1 1 TREND: Is your opinion of - Marco Rubio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS.. Oct 13 Sep 30 2010 2010 Favorable 48 49 Unfavorable 34 35 Hvn't hrd enough 17 14 REFUSED 1 1 7. Is your opinion of - Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 45% 21% 63% 58% 44% 47% 34% Unfavorable 47 73 26 36 51 42 62 Hvn't hrd enough 5 4 7 3 2 8 2 REFUSED 3 2 4 3 3 4 2 TREND: Is your opinion of - Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS.. Oct 13 Sep 30 2010 2010 Favorable 45 45 Unfavorable 47 47 Hvn't hrd enough 5 5 REFUSED 3 3 8. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you believe most shares your values Kendrick Meek, Marco Rubio, or Charlie Crist? LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Meek 24% 1% 55% 22% 24% 25% 9% Rubio 43 83 7 31 45 40 68 Crist 26 13 31 37 25 27 17 NO DIFFERENCE(VOL) 1 - - 1 - 1 - DK/NA 6 3 7 9 7 6 5 9. Would you like to see the next United States Senator elected from Florida generally support Barack Obama's policies or oppose Barack Obama's policies? LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 42% 6% 86% 43% 37% 50% 16% Oppose 52 92 8 48 57 46 81 DK/NA 6 1 6 10 7 4 3 10. Would you prefer to have the Democrats or the Republicans control the U.S. Senate next year or doesn't it matter to you? LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Democrats 37% 1% 87% 31% 32% 43% 16% Republicans 46 93 1 35 51 39 70 Doesn't matter 15 6 10 29 14 16 12 DK/NA 3 - 3 5 3 2 1 13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charlie Crist is handling his job as Governor? LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 51% 33% 65% 58% 51% 52% 38% Disapprove 43 64 26 36 46 41 58 DK/NA 6 3 8 6 4 8 4 14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? LIKELY VOTERS..................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 43% 7% 84% 46% 39% 48% 17% Disapprove 54 92 13 48 58 48 79 DK/NA 3 1 3 6 3 4 4
