May 26, 2011 - Obama Gets Big Bump In Florida, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Nelson Leads GOP Challengers, With No Clear Leader Word format President Barack Obama's job approval rating in Florida is 51 - 43 percent approve, a jump from his negative 44 - 52 percent score April 7, before the killing of Osama bin Laden, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson holds leads ranging from 20 to 25 points over his three potential Republican challengers for re-election in 2012, according to the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey. In a matchup of the three Republicans competing for the GOP nomination to run against Sen. Nelson, the winner is "don't know" which gets 64 percent of the vote. State Senate President Mike Haridopolos gets 13 percent, former Sen. George LeMieux receives 14 percent and former state House majority leader Adam Hasner gets 4 percent. President Obama's improved job rating in Florida is largely due to a big swing among independent voters, from a negative 39 - 55 percent April 7 to a split 47 - 45 percent today. Democrats now approve of the president's performance 86 - 11 percent compared to 79 - 16 percent in April. Republicans disapprove 84 - 13 percent, unchanged from April. Men split 49 - 47 percent now compared to a negative 38 - 58 percent then, and women approve 53 - 40 percent now compared to 49 - 46 percent then. "Whether these numbers represent a 'bin Laden bounce,' President Barack Obama's popularity is up in Florida, which will be a crucial state for him in the 2012 campaign," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "The good news for the president is that by 50 - 44 percent Florida voters say Obama deserves a second term in the Oval Office, compared to April when they said 51 - 42 percent that he did not." In a matchup against an unnamed Republican, Obama leads 44 - 37 percent compared to April when he trailed 41 - 38 percent. In the Senate race, Nelson has very comfortable early leads: 47 - 26 percent over Haridopolos; 48 - 23 percent over Hasner; 47 - 27 percent over LeMieux. "Sen. Bill Nelson appears to be in strong shape looking toward his 2012 re-election," said Brown. "When matched against any of three possible GOP challengers, however, Nelson is short of the key 50 percent mark, the magic threshold that signals that an incumbent is going to be very difficult to beat. His strength apparently lies in voter satisfaction with his performance in office. He has a job approval of 51 - 24 percent and by 48 - 30 percent voters say he deserves another term in the Senate. "At this point there is no real separation among the Republican candidates in terms of running against Nelson or in a primary matchup. They are all pretty far back," said Brown. "And given that almost two-thirds of Republican voters haven't picked a candidate in the primary face- off, the race for the GOP nomination remains wide-open." On other topics: Voters say 56 - 34 percent that the U.S. should not be fighting in Afghanistan; Voters oppose 57 - 33 percent U.S. involvement in Libya; Voters support 61 - 34 percent increased offshore drilling for oil and gas; By 49 - 41 percent, voters want Congress to repeal the new health care law. Florida voters approve 49 - 26 percent of the job that Sen. Marco Rubio is doing. From May 17 - 23, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,196 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. The survey includes 463 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1.(If registered Republican) If the 2012 Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Mike Haridopolos, Adam Hasner, and George LeMieux, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED REP... Tot Men Wom Haridopolos 13% 15% 11% Hasner 4 3 4 LeMieux 14 19 9 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 4 DK/NA 64 56 71 2. If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Bill Nelson the Democrat, and Mike Haridopolos the Republican, for whom would you vote? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Nelson 47% 15% 76% 42% 44% 49% 27% Haridopolos 26 64 1 22 29 24 52 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 4 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 3 3 4 2 3 DK/NA 22 16 20 29 20 24 15 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Nelson 44% 52% 43% 44% 50% Haridopolos 35 30 33 26 10 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 5 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 3 3 2 5 DK/NA 18 13 20 23 33 3. If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Bill Nelson the Democrat, and Adam Hasner the Republican, for whom would you vote? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Nelson 48% 19% 75% 44% 44% 51% 35% Hasner 23 58 1 18 27 20 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 1 5 3 3 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 2 1 3 1 - DK/NA 24 18 20 32 23 25 15 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Nelson 48% 53% 45% 43% 48% Hasner 29 28 30 22 10 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 4 5 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 2 2 4 DK/NA 21 15 19 28 35 4. If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Bill Nelson the Democrat, and George LeMieux the Republican, for whom would you vote? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Nelson 47% 18% 74% 43% 43% 50% 31% LeMieux 27 63 4 22 31 23 50 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 5 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 3 1 3 1 1 DK/NA 22 17 19 30 21 23 15 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Nelson 45% 52% 45% 46% 46% LeMieux 34 30 31 23 17 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 2 5 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 2 2 3 DK/NA 20 14 19 25 32 6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Marco Rubio is handling his job as United States Senator? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 49% 78% 28% 50% 54% 46% 72% Disapprove 26 8 44 23 27 26 9 DK/NA 24 13 28 27 19 29 19 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 51% 50% 49% 59% 45% Disapprove 25 28 29 28 23 DK/NA 24 22 22 14 32 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Marco Rubio is handling his job as United States Senator? May 26 Apr 7 Feb 3 2011 2011 2011 Approve 49 47 42 Disapprove 26 23 20 DK/NA 24 30 37 7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 51% 39% 66% 47% 51% 52% 40% Disapprove 24 42 10 24 28 21 44 DK/NA 25 19 24 28 22 27 15 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 50% 60% 41% 57% 55% Disapprove 29 25 34 21 11 DK/NA 20 16 25 22 34 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator? APPROVE....... DIS.... High Low High May 26 Apr 7 Feb 03 Aug 19 Feb 06 Aug 12 Aug 19 2011 2011 2011 2010 2007 2004 2010 Approve 51 47 45 45 54 42 45 Disapprove 24 26 21 33 18 18 33 DK/NA 25 27 34 22 28 40 22 9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 51% 13% 86% 47% 49% 53% 20% Disapprove 43 84 11 45 47 40 76 DK/NA 6 4 3 8 4 7 4 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 49% 51% 43% 45% 62% Disapprove 48 44 50 52 31 DK/NA 3 5 7 3 8 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? APPROVE....... High Low May 26 Apr 7 Feb 03 Aug 19 Jul 30 Feb 19 Jun 09 2011 2011 2011 2010 2010 2009 2010 Approve 51 44 47 47 46 64 40 Disapprove 43 52 49 47 50 23 54 DK/NA 6 4 4 5 4 13 6 11. Looking ahead to the 2012 election for President... If the 2012 election for President were being held today, do you think you would vote for Barack Obama the Democratic candidate, or for the Republican candidate? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Obama 44% 7% 83% 35% 42% 46% 14% Republican 37 81 4 36 39 35 71 DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL) 12 9 7 19 12 12 12 DK/NA 7 3 6 10 6 7 3 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Obama 44% 46% 40% 38% 50% Republican 42 36 45 46 24 DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL) 8 12 11 11 16 DK/NA 7 5 4 5 11 TREND: Looking ahead to the 2012 election for President. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, do you think you would vote for Barack Obama the Democratic candidate, or the Republican candidate? May 26 Apr 7 Feb 3 2011 2011 2011 Obama 44 38 40 Republican 37 41 42 DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL) 12 13 12 DK/NA 7 9 6 12. Looking ahead to the 2012 election for President... Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Yes/Deserves 50% 10% 87% 45% 49% 50% 16% No/Does not 44 87 8 47 46 42 79 DK/NA 6 4 5 8 5 7 6 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Yes/Deserves 46% 50% 43% 42% 61% No/Does not 48 45 50 52 32 DK/NA 6 5 7 6 7 TREND: Looking ahead to the 2012 election for President. Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? May 26 Apr 7 Feb 3 2011 2011 2011 Yes/Deserves 50 42 45 No/Does not 44 51 48 DK/NA 6 8 8 13. Looking ahead to the 2012 election for United States Senator... Do you feel that Bill Nelson deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Yes/Deserves 48% 30% 67% 45% 46% 51% 36% No/Does not 30 51 13 31 35 26 52 DK/NA 22 19 21 24 20 23 12 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Yes/Deserves 47% 49% 42% 58% 52% No/Does not 33 33 38 26 18 DK/NA 20 18 19 16 30 TREND: Looking ahead to the 2012 election for United States Senator. Do you feel that Bill Nelson deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? May 26 Apr 7 Feb 3 2011 2011 2011 Yes/Deserves 48 43 43 No/Does not 30 35 33 DK/NA 22 21 25 14. Which one of the following statements comes closest to the way you feel about Barack Obama - A) I like Barack Obama as a person and I also like most of his policies B) I like Barack Obama as a person but I don't like most of his policies C) I don't like Barack Obama as a person but I DO like most of his policies D) I don't like Barack Obama as a person and I also don't like most of his WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Person/Policies 45% 9% 83% 35% 42% 47% 16% Person/Not policies 31 41 12 42 32 29 41 Policies/Not person 2 - 2 1 2 1 1 Not Pol/Not person 19 45 2 16 21 18 38 DK/NA 4 4 1 5 3 4 4 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Person/Policies 45% 46% 42% 40% 48% Person/Not policies 28 27 30 33 34 Policies/Not person 1 1 2 1 2 Not Pol/Not person 23 22 23 25 10 DK/NA 4 4 3 2 5 TREND: Which one of the following statements comes closest to the way you feel about Barack Obama - A. I like Barack Obama as a person and I also like most of his policies B. I like Barack Obama as a person but I don't like most of his policies C. I don't like Barack Obama as a person but I DO like most of his policies D. I don't like Barack Obama as a person and I also don't like most of his May 26 Apr 07 2011 2011 Person/Policies 45 40 Person/Not policies 31 30 Policies/Not person 2 1 Not Pol/Not person 19 24 DK/NA 4 4 15. Which one of the following statements comes closest to the way you feel about Rick Scott - A) I like Rick Scott as a person and I also like most of his policies B) I like Rick Scott as a person but I don't like most of his policies C) I don't like Rick Scott as a person but I DO like most of his policies D) I don't like Rick Scott as a person and I also don't like most of his WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Person/Policies 21% 40% 9% 18% 23% 19% 38% Person/Not policies 18 13 18 22 18 19 16 Policies/Not person 9 12 4 12 11 7 10 Not Pol/Not person 42 25 60 37 37 46 25 DK/NA 10 10 9 12 11 10 11 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Person/Policies 26% 21% 22% 32% 12% Person/Not policies 19 15 18 13 23 Policies/Not person 13 10 9 6 6 Not Pol/Not person 34 47 41 40 44 DK/NA 9 7 9 9 14 TREND: Which one of the following statements comes closest to the way you feel about Rick Scott - A. I like Rick Scott as a person and I also like most of his policies B. I like Rick Scott as a person but I don't like most of his policies C. I don't like Rick Scott as a person but I DO like most of his policies D. I don't like Rick Scott as a person and I also don't like most of his May 26 Apr 07 2011 2011 Person/Policies 21 24 Person/Not policies 18 16 Policies/Not person 9 10 Not Pol/Not person 42 40 DK/NA 10 11 26. In general, do you support or oppose the United States increasing the amount of drilling for oil and natural gas in offshore waters? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 61% 84% 40% 65% 66% 55% 82% Oppose 34 13 52 29 30 37 17 DK/NA 6 3 8 6 4 7 2 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Support 62% 60% 68% 58% 53% Oppose 34 35 27 40 37 DK/NA 3 5 5 2 10 TREND: In general, do you support or oppose the United States increasing the amount of drilling for oil and natural gas in offshore waters? May 26 Apr 7 Jul 30 Jun 9 Apr 19 Jan 27 2011 2011 2010 2010 2010 2010 Support 61 60 42 42 66 63 Oppose 34 35 51 51 27 33 DK/NA 6 4 7 6 8 4 30. Do you think the U.S. is doing the right thing by fighting the war in Afghanistan now, or should the U.S. not be involved in Afghanistan now? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Right thing 34% 49% 28% 29% 41% 28% 45% Shld't be invl 56 43 62 60 50 60 46 DK/NA 10 8 10 11 8 12 10 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Right thing 39% 34% 41% 33% 25% Shld't be invl 50 56 52 55 62 DK/NA 11 10 7 11 13 TREND: Do you think the U.S. is doing the right thing by fighting the war in Afghanistan now, or should the U.S. not be involved in Afghanistan now? May 26 Apr 7 Feb 03 Aug 19 2011 2011 2011 2010 Right thing 34 36 38 43 Shld't be invl 56 59 54 49 DK/NA 10 6 7 7 31. Do you think the U.S. is doing the right thing by using military force in Libya now, or should the U.S. not be involved in Libya now? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Right thing 33% 39% 31% 31% 39% 28% 33% Shld't be invl 57 54 54 59 53 59 58 DK/NA 11 7 14 10 8 13 10 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Right thing 38% 31% 36% 30% 28% Shld't be invl 55 60 54 56 59 DK/NA 7 10 10 14 13 32. Do you think Congress should repeal the new health care law, or should they let it stand? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Repeal it 49% 84% 21% 52% 50% 49% 72% Let it stand 41 12 69 34 41 42 20 DK/NA 10 4 10 13 10 10 8 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Repeal it 60% 50% 55% 51% 35% Let it stand 35 45 35 40 49 DK/NA 5 5 10 9 16 TREND: Do you think Congress should repeal the new health care law, or should they let it stand? May 26 Apr 7 Feb 3 2011 2011 2011 Repeal it 49 49 50 Let it stand 41 41 43 DK/NA 10 10 7
