August 4, 2011 - Debt Deal Doesn't Rescue Obama From Florida Crash, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Romney Closes Gap In 2012 Presidential Race Word format The national debt ceiling deal does not rescue President Barack Obama's crashing job approval rating in Florida as he gets a negative 44 - 51 percent score among voters surveyed August 1 - 2, after the deal was announced, compared to a negative 44 - 50 percent score among voters surveyed July 27 - 31, before the deal, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This compares to a positive 51 - 43 percent approval rating for President Obama in a May 26 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll. Florida voters surveyed after the deal say 50 - 42 percent that Obama does not deserve to be reelected, compared to a 47 - 46 percent split before the deal and 50 - 44 percent support for his reelection May 26. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the leading Republican challenger in the 2012 presidential race, ties Obama 44 - 44 percent post-deal, compared to a 46 - 41 percent Obama lead pre-deal. Obama has double-digit leads over other top Republicans pre-deal and post-deal, except for Texas Gov. Rick Perry who trails Obama 44 - 39 percent post-deal. "President Barack Obama's numbers in the key swing state of Florida have gone south in the last two months. The debt ceiling deal is not making any difference in that decline and any bounce he got from the bin Laden operation is long since gone," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "The president's drop off is huge among independent voters who now disapprove almost 2-1." The post-debt deal poll shows little change in Obama's May approval among Republicans and Democrats. But among independent voters he plummets from a 47 - 45 percent split in May to a 61 - 33 percent disapproval today. Men, who approved 49 - 47 percent in May, disapprove in the post-deal survey 54 - 42 percent. Women go from 53 - 40 percent approval in May to a 46 - 49 percent split today. Romney leads the GOP presidential primary with 23 percent, followed by Texas Gov. Rick Perry with 13 percent and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul with 9 percent each. Businessman Herman Cain has 8 percent, with 6 percent for Minnesota U.S. Rep. Michele Bachman. No other candidate tops 4 percent. "Gov. Rick Perry's stock is rising even before he announces whether he'll run," said Brown. "U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann, who had been surging in other states, is stalled." Florida voters approve 50 - 37 percent of the debt ceiling deal, but only 2 percent say they are enthusiastic about it; 41 percent are satisfied but not enthusiastic; 36 percent are dissatisfied but not angry, while 18 percent, including 23 percent of independent voters, say they are angry. Obama acted in their best interests in the debt ceiling deal, 36 percent of voters say, compared to 32 percent who say that about House Speaker John Boehner and 12 percent who say Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid acted in their best interest. In the pre-agreement poll, voters said 46 - 33 percent they thought Obama rather than the Republicans had acted more responsibly in the negotiations. Looking at Florida's U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson gets a 45 - 33 percent approval rating, pre-deal, and a 42 - 35 percent score post-deal. Nelson leads an unnamed Republican challenger 46 - 35 percent post-deal. The race for the GOP senate nomination remains wide open with 53 percent of Republicans undecided. Michael McCalister, a retired military official and businessman, gets 15 percent followed by former Sen. George LeMieux at 12 percent, businessman Craig Miller at 8 percent and former House GOP leader Adam Hasner at 6 percent. From July 27 - 31, Quinnipiac University surveyed 674 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percent. August 1 - 2, 743 registered voters were surveyed with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percent. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The total survey of 1,417 registered voters surveyed from July 27 - August 2 includes 510 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percent. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. (If registered Republican) If the 2012 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were - Rick Perry, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman, Herman Cain and Thaddeus McCotter for whom would you vote? REGISTERED REPUBLICANS....... WtBrnAgn Tot Men Wom Evnglcl Perry 13% 15% 11% 16% Palin 9 7 11 13 Gingrich 4 1 6 5 Romney 23 23 22 16 Pawlenty 3 1 4 1 Bachmann 6 9 3 5 Santorum 1 1 2 2 Paul 9 10 8 10 Huntsman 1 1 1 - Cain 8 11 6 8 McCotter - - - - SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 5 1 3 DK/NA 17 12 24 17 1a. (If voting for Perry q1) Who is your second choice? (q1 Recalculated without Perry using second choice question) REGISTERED REPUBLICANS....... Q1 WITHOUT PERRY............. WtBrnAgn Tot Men Wom Evnglcl Palin 9% 7% 12% 14% Gingrich 4 2 6 5 Romney 27 28 26 21 Pawlenty 5 4 5 5 Bachmann 10 13 6 9 Santorum 1 1 2 2 Paul 9 11 8 11 Huntsman 1 1 2 1 Cain 10 13 6 9 McCotter - - - - SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 5 1 3 DK/NA 18 12 24 18 1b. (if voting for Palin q1) Who is your second choice? (q1 Recalculated without Palin using second choice question) REGISTERED REPUBLICANS....... Q1 WITHOUT PALIN............. WtBrnAgn Tot Men Wom Evnglcl Perry 14% 16% 12% 18% Gingrich 5 2 9 9 Romney 24 24 25 18 Pawlenty 3 1 4 1 Bachmann 7 10 5 7 Santorum 1 1 2 2 Paul 10 11 8 10 Huntsman 1 1 1 - Cain 9 12 6 8 McCotter - 1 - - SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 5 1 3 DK/NA 19 12 26 20 2. (If registered Republican) If the 2012 Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Adam Hasner, George LeMieux, Craig Miller and Mike McCalister for whom would you vote? REGISTERED REPUBLICANS....... WtBrnAgn Tot Men Wom Evnglcl Hasner 6% 6% 5% 6% LeMieux 12 13 10 9 Miller 8 10 6 8 McCalister 15 13 17 13 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 4 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 3 3 DK/NA 53 49 57 58 TREND: (If registered Republican)If the 2012 Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Adam Hasner, George LeMieux, Craig Miller and Mike McCalister for whom would you vote? (*na=not asked in survey reported) REGISTERED REPUBLICANS Aug 04 May 26 2011 2011 Hasner 6 4 LeMieux 12 14 Miller 8 na McCalister 15 na Haridopolos na 13 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 DK/NA 53 64 3. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Rick Perry the Republican for whom would you vote? WEDNESDAY THRU SUNDAY................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 49% 15% 79% 48% 46% 51% Perry 36 73 11 28 41 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 3 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 1 4 3 4 DK/NA 11 8 8 16 9 13 MONDAY THRU TUESDAY................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 44% 7% 83% 35% 42% 47% Perry 39 84 8 39 40 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 2 6 5 3 DK/NA 12 6 6 17 11 12 4. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Michele Bachmann the Republican for whom would you vote? WEDNESDAY THRU SUNDAY................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 50% 17% 84% 46% 47% 53% Bachmann 36 76 9 31 42 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 2 4 4 3 DK/NA 10 5 6 17 6 13 MONDAY THRU TUESDAY................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 50% 9% 85% 47% 50% 49% Bachmann 38 82 10 35 38 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 - 3 3 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 2 5 4 2 DK/NA 7 4 4 10 5 10 5. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican for whom would you vote? WEDNESDAY THRU SUNDAY................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 46% 12% 83% 38% 42% 49% Romney 41 82 12 37 45 38 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 3 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 - 4 3 2 DK/NA 9 3 5 18 8 9 MONDAY THRU TUESDAY................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 44% 4% 84% 32% 41% 46% Romney 44 89 9 46 45 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 4 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 2 4 4 1 DK/NA 8 5 4 13 8 8 6. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Sarah Palin the Republican for whom would you vote? WEDNESDAY THRU SUNDAY................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 54% 18% 85% 53% 51% 56% Palin 33 74 8 23 36 30 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 3 3 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 4 2 10 6 5 DK/NA 6 3 4 12 6 7 MONDAY THRU TUESDAY................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 53% 14% 87% 48% 52% 53% Palin 34 75 7 34 36 33 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 5 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 6 2 7 4 5 DK/NA 6 4 3 7 6 6 9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Marco Rubio is handling his job as United States Senator? WEDNESDAY THRU SUNDAY................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 45% 72% 29% 40% 48% 43% Disapprove 35 16 50 35 33 37 DK/NA 20 12 21 25 19 21 MONDAY THRU TUESDAY................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 49% 78% 21% 54% 58% 41% Disapprove 36 14 61 29 31 40 DK/NA 15 8 18 17 11 19 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Marco Rubio is handling his job as United States Senator? DEBT DEAL..... Post Pre Aug 04 Aug 04 May 26 Apr 07 Feb 03 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 Approve 49 45 49 47 42 Disapprove 36 35 26 23 20 DK/NA 15 20 24 30 37 10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator? WEDNESDAY THRU SUNDAY................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 45% 34% 62% 37% 45% 44% Disapprove 33 49 15 36 34 32 DK/NA 22 17 23 27 22 23 MONDAY THRU TUESDAY................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 42% 33% 54% 44% 41% 43% Disapprove 35 45 23 34 36 34 DK/NA 23 22 23 22 23 23 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator? (*Low also 42% Aug 2004) DEBT DEAL..... APPROVE....... Post Pre High Low Aug 04 Aug 04 May 26 Apr 07 Feb 03 Feb 06 Aug 04 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2007 2011* Approve 42 45 51 47 45 54 42 Disapprove 35 33 24 26 21 18 35 DK/NA 23 22 25 27 34 28 23 11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? WEDNESDAY THRU SUNDAY................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 44% 13% 72% 42% 42% 46% Disapprove 50 85 20 52 54 47 DK/NA 5 1 8 6 4 7 MONDAY THRU TUESDAY................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 44% 10% 82% 33% 42% 46% Disapprove 51 88 14 61 54 49 DK/NA 5 3 4 6 5 5 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? DEBT DEAL..... APPROVE....... Post Pre High Low Aug 04 Aug 04 May 26 Apr 07 Feb 03 Feb 19 Jun 09 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2009 2010 Approve 44 44 51 44 47 64 40 Disapprove 51 50 43 52 49 23 54 DK/NA 5 5 6 4 4 13 6 12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Democrats in Congress are handling their job? WEDNESDAY THRU SUNDAY................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 29% 14% 52% 21% 30% 29% Disapprove 62 78 34 73 65 59 DK/NA 9 8 14 5 5 12 MONDAY THRU TUESDAY................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 29% 5% 56% 24% 28% 30% Disapprove 66 94 40 67 69 63 DK/NA 5 1 4 9 3 7 13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Republicans in Congress are handling their job? WEDNESDAY THRU SUNDAY................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 23% 49% 7% 18% 21% 25% Disapprove 68 44 81 77 69 68 DK/NA 9 8 12 5 10 7 MONDAY THRU TUESDAY................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 26% 51% 10% 24% 26% 25% Disapprove 69 44 88 67 69 70 DK/NA 5 5 2 8 5 5 15. Looking ahead to the 2012 election for President... Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? WEDNESDAY THRU SUNDAY................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes/Deserves 47% 12% 81% 43% 45% 48% No/Does not 46 85 15 45 51 42 DK/NA 7 3 4 12 4 9 MONDAY THRU TUESDAY................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes/Deserves 42% 9% 78% 32% 40% 44% No/Does not 50 90 16 55 51 49 DK/NA 8 1 5 13 8 7 TREND: Looking ahead to the 2012 election for President. Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? DEBT DEAL..... Post Pre Aug 04 Aug 04 May 26 Apr 07 Feb 03 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 Yes/Deserves 42 47 50 42 45 No/Does not 50 46 44 51 48 DK/NA 8 7 6 8 8 16. Looking ahead to the 2012 election for United States Senator... If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today, do you think you would vote for Bill Nelson the Democratic candidate, or for the Republican candidate? WEDNESDAY THRU SUNDAY................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Nelson 45% 9% 80% 42% 44% 45% Republican 33 74 6 25 35 31 DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL) 8 11 5 9 9 7 DK/NA 14 7 9 24 12 16 MONDAY THRU TUESDAY................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Nelson 46% 9% 82% 40% 43% 48% Republican 35 77 4 32 40 31 DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL) 7 6 3 11 8 6 DK/NA 12 8 11 17 9 16 TREND: Looking ahead to the 2012 election for United States Senator...If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today, do you think you would vote for Bill Nelson the Democratic candidate, or for the Republican candidate? DEBT DEAL..... Post Pre Aug 04 Aug 04 Apr 07 Feb 03 2011 2011 2011 2011 Nelson 46 45 43 41 Republican 35 33 39 36 DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL) 7 8 8 10 DK/NA 12 14 10 13 17. Looking ahead to the 2012 election for United States Senator...Do you feel that Bill Nelson deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? WEDNESDAY THRU SUNDAY................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes/Deserves 45% 21% 70% 42% 43% 46% No/Does not 36 65 12 36 39 34 DK/NA 19 15 18 22 18 20 MONDAY THRU TUESDAY................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes/Deserves 44% 18% 65% 46% 45% 42% No/Does not 38 60 19 35 42 34 DK/NA 18 22 15 19 13 23 TREND: Looking ahead to the 2012 election for United States Senator. Do you feel that Bill Nelson deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? DEBT DEAL..... Post Pre Aug 04 Aug 04 May 26 Apr 07 Feb 03 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 Yes/Deserves 44 45 48 43 43 No/Does not 38 36 30 35 33 DK/NA 18 19 22 21 25 18. Regardless of how you feel about Barack Obama's policies, would you say you like or don't like Barack Obama as a person? WEDNESDAY THRU SUNDAY................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Like 69% 44% 86% 73% 70% 67% Don't Like 18 40 6 13 17 19 DK/NA 13 17 8 14 12 14 MONDAY THRU TUESDAY................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Like 73% 47% 94% 75% 74% 72% Don't Like 17 41 3 13 16 18 DK/NA 10 12 3 12 10 10 19. And regardless of how you feel about Barack Obama as a person, would you say you like or don't like most of Barack Obama's policies? WEDNESDAY THRU SUNDAY................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Like 45% 10% 79% 40% 42% 47% Don't Like 48 85 16 48 50 45 DK/NA 8 5 5 12 8 7 MONDAY THRU TUESDAY................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Like 42% 5% 79% 35% 38% 46% Don't Like 52 90 17 59 56 48 DK/NA 6 5 4 6 5 7 29. Who do you think is behaving more responsibly in the negotiations over the national debt ceiling - President Obama or Republicans in Congress? WEDNESDAY THRU SUNDAY................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 46% 15% 73% 46% 43% 49% Republicans 33 63 13 28 35 32 BOTH (VOL) 1 - - 3 1 1 NEITHER (VOL) 11 13 5 15 13 10 DK/NA 8 8 9 8 8 8 MONDAY THRU TUESDAY................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 48% 11% 82% 43% 46% 49% Republicans 33 69 5 34 36 30 BOTH (VOL) 2 1 3 3 4 1 NEITHER (VOL) 12 13 7 15 12 13 DK/NA 5 6 3 5 3 7 30. Who do you think is behaving more responsibly in the negotiations over the national debt ceiling - Democrats in Congress or Republicans in Congress? WEDNESDAY THRU SUNDAY................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Democrats 40% 12% 70% 36% 38% 42% Republicans 32 64 9 28 36 29 BOTH (VOL) 2 - 1 4 - 4 NEITHER (VOL) 17 13 12 25 19 15 DK/NA 9 11 8 7 7 10 MONDAY THRU TUESDAY................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Democrats 38% 9% 69% 33% 39% 37% Republicans 34 74 5 34 40 29 BOTH (VOL) 3 2 3 5 5 2 NEITHER (VOL) 19 12 17 21 13 25 DK/NA 5 3 6 7 3 7 31. As you may know, President Obama and Congressional leaders reached a deal to raise the government's debt ceiling while cutting spending by about $2.4 trillion. Do you approve or disapprove of this deal? MONDAY THRU TUESDAY................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 50% 48% 53% 47% 48% 51% Disapprove 37 40 35 36 42 33 DK/NA 13 11 12 16 10 15 32. I am going to mention four phrases and ask you which one best describes how you feel about this deal. Do you feel - enthusiastic, satisfied but not enthusiastic, dissatisfied but not angry, or angry? MONDAY THRU TUESDAY................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Enthusiastic 2 1 - 3 2 1 Sat/Not enthusiastic 41 44 48 38 39 43 DisS/Not angry 36 37 34 31 34 38 Angry 18 17 13 23 21 15 DK/NA 4 1 4 4 4 3 33. Who do you think acted in - the nation's best interests in the debt ceiling negotiations; President Barack Obama, House Speaker John Boehner, or Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid? MONDAY THRU TUESDAY................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 36 9 65 29 33 38 Boehner 33 67 6 33 38 28 Reid 11 8 13 12 11 11 ALL(VOL) - - - - 1 - NONE(VOL) 6 5 2 7 6 6 DK/NA 14 10 13 18 11 17 34. Who do you think acted in - your best interests in the debt ceiling negotiations; President Barack Obama, House Speaker John Boehner, or Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid? MONDAY THRU TUESDAY................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 36 10 55 37 33 38 Boehner 32 68 7 28 35 28 Reid 12 6 20 10 13 12 ALL(VOL) - - - 1 1 - NONE(VOL) 9 7 5 12 9 8 DK/NA 11 9 12 12 9 13 Demographic Summary
