September 22, 2011 - Perry Leads GOP Pack, Tops Romney 1 On 1 In Florida, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Obama Trails Romney And Ties Perry Word format Texas Gov. Rick Perry has a small lead over the Republican presidential pack in Florida with 28 percent, followed by former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney with 22 percent, but Perry tops Romney 31 - 22 percent if Sarah Palin doesn't run and leads Romney 46 - 38 percent in a two- man face-off, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Romney has barely moved since he led the Florida GOP pack with 23 percent in an August 4 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, while Perry has surged from 13 percent in that survey conducted before he formally announced his candidacy. All Florida voters disapprove 57 - 39 percent of the job President Barack Obama is doing, his worst score in any Quinnipiac University poll in any state. In possible 2012 presidential matchups, Romney tops the president 47 - 40 percent while Perry gets 42 percent to Obama's 44 percent, a dead heat. In the August 4 Florida poll, Romney and Obama were deadlocked 44 - 44 percent while the president led Perry 44 - 39 percent. Obama does not deserve a second term, Florida voters say 53 - 41 percent. "Gov. Rick Perry has the lead - and the momentum - among Florida Republicans, while former Gov. Mitt Romney can point to a better general election showing," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Adding to Perry's strength is support among Sarah Palin backers, who shift more to the Texas governor if the former Alaska governor stays out of the race. "And when voters are asked to choose just between the two front-runners, Perry's lead is eight points." Perry leads Romney 55 - 35 percent among Republican voters who describe themselves as part of the Tea Party movement. Perry leads 50 - 36 percent among GOP men and wins 42 percent of women to Romney's 41 percent. Most of the difference between how Romney and Perry run against President Obama is among independent voters. The president leads Perry 42 - 36 percent among Florida independents, while Romney tops the president 44 - 35 percent among the same group. "This finding is consistent with Quinnipiac University polls in other states and re-enforces Perry's need to improve his standing with independent voters," said Brown. Voters in Florida, with the nation's highest concentration of senior citizens, say 58 - 33 percent that it is "unfair" to describe Social Security as a "Ponzi scheme," as Perry has done. But among Republicans, the only ones allowed to vote in the state's crucial primary, 52 percent say that is a fair way to describe the nation's retirement system. Perry's position on Social Security leads 35 percent of Florida voters to think he wants to fix it, while 37 percent feel he wants to end it. Republicans, however, say 60 - 14 percent that Perry wants to fix Social Security. Florida voters, like voters nationwide, are opposed to virtually all proposals to reduce Social Security, with the exception of 65 - 28 percent support for raising the cap from the current $106,800 in salary subject to taxation. Raising the Social Security salary cap will not lead employers to do less hiring, voters say 61 - 32 percent. By 38 - 20 percent voters say they are less likely, rather than more likely, to support a presidential candidate who called for reducing the benefits for younger workers when they retire, while not touching those of current retirees. In Florida's U.S. Senate race, incumbent Bill Nelson deserves a second term, voters say 44 - 33 percent and Nelson leads an unnamed GOP candidate 43 - 34 percent. In the Republican primary to challenge Nelson, 58 percent are undecided, with former Sen. George LeMieux at 17 percent, followed by businessman Mike McCalister with 11 percent. From September 14 - 19, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,007 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Republican primary includes 374 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 5.1 percent. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. (If Registered Republican)If the 2012 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were - Rick Perry, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman, Herman Cain and Thaddeus McCotter for whom would you vote? REGISTERED REPUBLICANS.............. PrtOf WtBrnAgn Tot Men Wom TeaPty Evnglcl Perry 28% 34% 22% 36% 26% Palin 8 7 8 11 7 Gingrich 7 5 10 7 6 Romney 22 19 24 17 18 Bachmann 5 3 7 8 7 Santorum 2 1 3 3 2 Paul 6 9 2 3 9 Huntsman 2 3 1 1 1 Cain 7 7 6 6 7 McCotter - - - - - SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 - - - DK/NA 12 8 17 8 14 TREND: (If registered Republican) If the 2012 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were - Rick Perry, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman, Herman Cain and Thaddeus McCotter for whom would you vote? (*na=not asked in survey reported) REGISTERED REPUBLICANS Sep 22 Aug 04 2011 2011 Perry 28 13 Palin 8 9 Gingrich 7 4 Romney 22 23 Bachmann 5 6 Santorum 2 1 Paul 6 9 Huntsman 2 1 Cain 7 8 McCotter - - Pawlenty na 3 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 3 DK/NA 12 17 1a. (If voting for Palin q1) Who is your second choice? (Recalculated without Palin using second choice question) REGISTERED REPUBLICANS.............. Q1 WITHOUT PALIN.................... PrtOf WtBrnAgn Tot Men Wom TeaPty Evnglcl Perry 31% 35% 26% 39% 30% Gingrich 8 5 10 7 6 Romney 22 19 25 19 18 Bachmann 7 6 8 12 9 Santorum 2 1 3 4 3 Paul 6 9 2 3 9 Huntsman 2 3 1 1 1 Cain 8 9 7 8 7 McCotter - - - - - SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 - - - DK/NA 13 9 17 8 14 TREND: (if voting for Palin) Who is your second choice? (Recalculated without Palin using second choice question) REGISTERED REPUBLICANS WITHOUT PALIN.. Sep 22 Aug 04 2011 2011 Perry 31 14 Gingrich 8 5 Romney 22 24 Bachmann 7 7 Santorum 2 1 Paul 6 10 Huntsman 2 1 Cain 8 9 McCotter - - Pawlenty na 3 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 3 DK/NA 13 19 2. (If Registered Republican)Suppose the primary came down to a choice between Rick Perry and Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED REPUBLICANS.............. PrtOf WtBrnAgn Tot Men Wom TeaPty Evnglcl Perry 46% 50% 42% 55% 52% Romney 38 36 41 35 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 3 2 DK/NA 12 8 16 6 13 3. (If Registered Republican)If the 2012 Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Adam Hasner, George LeMieux, Craig Miller and Mike McCalister for whom would you vote? REGISTERED REPUBLICANS.............. PrtOf WtBrnAgn Tot Men Wom TeaPty Evnglcl Hasner 5% 7% 2% 9% 4% LeMieux 17 22 10 28 14 Miller 5 8 3 4 5 McCalister 11 11 12 8 10 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 3 - 3 DK/NA 58 49 69 49 64 TREND: (If registered Republican)If the 2012 Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Adam Hasner, George LeMieux, Craig Miller and Mike McCalister for whom would you vote? (*na=not asked in survey reported) REGISTERED REPUBLICANS Sep 22 Aug 04 May 26 2011 2011 2011 Hasner 5 6 4 LeMieux 17 12 14 Miller 5 8 na McCalister 11 15 na Haridopolos na na 13 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 4 DK/NA 58 53 64 4. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Rick Perry the Republican, for whom would you vote? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Obama 44% 5% 86% 42% 44% 45% 16% Perry 42 92 4 36 44 41 71 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 1 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 1 2 8 4 4 4 DK/NA 8 2 7 13 7 9 8 TREND: If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Rick Perry the Republican for whom would you vote? DEBT DEAL..... Post Pre Sep 22 Aug 04 Aug 04 2011 2011 2011 Obama 44 44 49 Perry 42 39 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 3 DK/NA 8 12 11 5. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Obama 40% 4% 83% 35% 38% 42% 13% Romney 47 93 7 44 50 44 75 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - - 3 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 1 2 6 3 4 2 DK/NA 8 2 8 12 7 10 8 TREND: If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican for whom would you vote? DEBT DEAL..... Post Pre Sep 22 Aug 04 Aug 04 2011 2011 2011 Obama 40 44 46 Romney 47 44 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 2 DK/NA 8 8 9 6. Compared to past presidential elections, how would you describe your level of enthusiasm about voting in the 2012 presidential election next year - are you more enthusiastic than usual, less enthusiastic, or about the same as usual? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl More 40% 63% 28% 31% 41% 38% 48% Less 22 10 24 29 18 26 21 About the same 37 26 47 40 41 34 29 DK/NA 1 2 1 - 1 1 2 9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States senator? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 45% 36% 58% 43% 46% 44% 41% Disapprove 32 47 20 29 36 28 36 DK/NA 23 17 22 28 17 28 23 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator? (*Low also 42% Aug 2004) DEBT DEAL..... APPROVE....... Post Pre High Low Sep 22 Aug 04 Aug 04 May 26 Apr 07 Feb 06 Aug 04 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2007 2011* Approve 45 42 45 51 47 54 42 Disapprove 32 35 33 24 26 18 35 DK/NA 23 23 22 25 27 28 23 10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 39% 6% 75% 37% 37% 40% 20% Disapprove 57 92 20 57 60 53 78 DK/NA 5 3 4 6 3 7 2 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? DEBT DEAL..... APPROVE....... Post Pre High Low Sep 22 Aug 04 Aug 04 May 26 Apr 07 Feb 19 Sep 22 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2009 2011 Approve 39 44 44 51 44 64 39 Disapprove 57 51 50 43 52 23 57 DK/NA 5 5 5 6 4 13 5 11. Do you consider yourself part of the Tea Party movement or not? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Yes 14% 30% 3% 9% 16% 12% 20% No 81 65 91 87 81 81 72 DK/NA 5 5 5 4 3 7 7 12. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Florida today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Very satisfied 4% 7% - 5% 5% 3% 5% Smwht satisfied 31 51 16 29 36 27 42 Smwht dissatisfied 29 22 36 31 25 32 25 Very dissatisfied 34 19 46 34 33 36 27 DK/NA 2 2 1 - 2 2 1 TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Florida today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied or very dissatisfied? (*combined High also 63% Sep 2004) VERY+SMWHT.... High Low Sep 22 Aug 05 May 25 Apr 06 Feb 02 Feb 24 Sep 22 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2005* 2011 Very satisfied 4 4 3 3 3 15 4 Smwht satisfied 31 33 36 36 44 48 31 Smwht dissatisfied 29 28 32 34 34 22 29 Very dissatisfied 34 33 29 26 19 15 34 DK/NA 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 13. Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Yes/Deserves 41% 5% 80% 39% 39% 42% 15% No/Does not 53 94 14 51 55 51 79 DK/NA 6 2 6 10 6 7 6 TREND: Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? DEBT DEAL..... Post Pre Sep 22 Aug 04 Aug 04 May 26 Apr 07 Feb 03 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 Yes/Deserves 41 42 47 50 42 45 No/Does not 53 50 46 44 51 48 DK/NA 6 8 7 6 8 8 14. If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today, do you think you would vote for Bill Nelson the Democratic candidate, or for the Republican candidate? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Nelson 43% 9% 85% 38% 43% 43% 27% Republican 34 78 1 30 37 32 53 DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL) 8 8 4 12 7 10 9 DK/NA 14 5 10 21 13 15 11 TREND: If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today, do you think you would vote for Bill Nelson the Democratic candidate, or for the Republican candidate? DEBT DEAL..... Post Pre Sep 22 Aug 04 Aug 04 Apr 07 Feb 03 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 Nelson 43 46 45 43 41 Republican 34 35 33 39 36 DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL) 8 7 8 8 10 DK/NA 14 12 14 10 13 15. Do you feel that Bill Nelson deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Yes/Deserves 44% 19% 77% 39% 43% 45% 33% No/Does not 33 59 8 34 39 28 36 DK/NA 23 22 14 27 19 27 30 TREND: Do you feel that Bill Nelson deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? DEBT DEAL..... Post Pre Sep 22 Aug 04 Aug 04 May 26 Apr 07 Feb 03 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 Yes/Deserves 44 44 45 48 43 43 No/Does not 33 38 36 30 35 33 DK/NA 23 18 19 22 21 25 22. Is your opinion of Social Security favorable, unfavorable, or haven't you heard enough about it? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 51% 46% 57% 54% 54% 49% 46% Unfavorable 25 35 15 27 27 24 33 Hvn't hrd enough 20 15 25 17 16 24 19 REFUSED 3 3 3 2 3 3 2 23. Do you think: The Social Security program should continue to be run by the federal government, or do you think The Social Security program should be turned over to the states? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Federal gov 65% 49% 81% 66% 66% 64% 55% States 24 38 10 23 25 22 31 DK/NA 11 12 9 11 9 14 15 24. (INTRO TO QUES 24-27)The Social Security system mainly provides retirement income for senior citizens. The government board that runs Social Security projects that it will run out of money to pay full benefits in the next 25 years. Do you support or oppose - raising Social Security taxes to help bring more money into the Social Security system? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 42% 24% 56% 46% 45% 39% 34% Oppose 51 68 35 50 49 52 61 DK/NA 7 8 9 4 6 9 5 25. Do you support or oppose - increasing the age to qualify for Social Security benefits to help bring more money into the Social Security system? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 42% 53% 36% 39% 44% 41% 43% Oppose 52 43 61 55 54 51 53 DK/NA 5 4 4 6 3 8 4 26. Do you support or oppose - reducing Social Security benefits for current retirees to help bring more money into the Social Security system? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 12% 13% 13% 12% 12% 13% 12% Oppose 85 84 84 85 86 83 85 DK/NA 3 2 4 3 2 4 3 27. Do you support or oppose - reducing Social Security benefits for future retirees to help bring more money into the Social Security system? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 27% 36% 27% 21% 30% 25% 21% Oppose 66 55 69 73 65 68 71 DK/NA 6 9 4 6 5 8 8 28. Under the current system employers and employees pay Social Security taxes on workers incomes only up to the first $106,800 they earn. Do you support or oppose raising this $106,800 income cap to help bring more money into the Social Security system? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 65% 60% 66% 69% 71% 58% 59% Oppose 28 34 25 24 25 31 33 DK/NA 7 6 8 7 4 11 7 29. Some people say that raising the amount of income subject to Social Security taxes will lead employers to do less hiring. Do you agree or disagree? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Agree 32% 45% 21% 31% 32% 31% 40% Disagree 61 49 74 64 63 60 49 DK/NA 7 6 6 6 5 9 11 30. Benefits for today's retirees come from taxes paid by today's workers. When today's workers retire, their benefits will be paid by people working at the time. Some have said this system is a "Ponzi scheme." Do you think that it is fair or unfair to describe the Social Security system as a Ponzi scheme? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Fair 33% 52% 10% 35% 37% 28% 34% Unfair 58 39 81 57 57 59 52 DK/NA 9 9 10 8 6 13 14 31. Based on what you've heard or read, do you think Rick Perry wants to fix Social Security or end Social Security? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Fix 35% 60% 12% 34% 42% 28% 43% End 37 14 60 38 36 38 30 DK/NA 28 27 28 28 22 35 27 32. If a presidential candidate said that in order to preserve the Social Security system they would not touch benefits for current retirees or workers soon to retire, but would reduce benefits for younger workers when they retire, would you be more likely to vote for that candidate, less likely to vote for that candidate, or wouldn't it make a difference? WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl More likely 20% 32% 13% 18% 23% 17% 23% Less likely 38 24 50 39 38 38 33 No difference 36 38 29 38 34 37 37 DK/NA 7 7 8 5 5 8 7 Demographic Summary
