January 25, 2012 - Gingrich Surges In Florida GOP Primary, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Big Jump After South Carolina Win Word format Surging since his South Carolina Republican presidential primary win, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich wipes out a 12-point lead by Mitt Romney to tie the former Massachusetts governor in Florida, according to a Quinnipiac University poll release today. The final tally is 36 percent for Romney to 34 percent for Gingrich among likely voters in the Florida Republican presidential primary, but Gingrich gets 40 percent to 34 percent for Romney among likely voters surveyed after the South Carolina primary. Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum receives 13 percent to 10 percent for Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul. Today's results compare with a 36 - 24 percent Romney lead in a January 9 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. No matter which candidate is ahead, the race for the Sunshine State's delegates remains wide open. Although only 7 percent of likely voters are undecided, 38 percent say they might change their mind. There is little difference among Gingrich and Romney supporters in terms of thinking they might change their mind. Romney is viewed by more likely primary voters as best able to handle the economy and most sharing voters' values, while Gingrich is seen by more voters as having the knowledge and experience to be president, being a strong leader and better at handling foreign policy. "Florida is essentially a dead heat and a two-man race between Gov. Mitt Romney and Speaker Newt Gingrich entering the last week of the campaign," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Gingrich's South Carolina victory clearly gives him a boost in Florida. The question is whether there is more of that to come, or whether any bump from a previous victory will dissipate as happened to Rick Santorum in New Hampshire after winning Iowa and Romney in South Carolina after taking New Hampshire," Brown added. Gingrich gets 37 percent of men to 33 percent for Romney, while Romney is ahead 38 - 31 among women. Gingrich leads among white evangelical Christians 43 - 30 percent and among those who consider themselves to be tea party supporters 43 - 28 percent. Each makes up roughly a third of primary voters although there is substantial overlap among those two groups. Romney is viewed more favorably, 71 - 19 percent, than is Gingrich, at 61 - 26 percent. Here again, Gingrich does better among voters polled after the South Carolina victory. Santorum gets a 58 - 13 percent favorability rating, while Paul gets a negative 36 - 40 percent score. "Newt Gingrich's edge is that he is the candidate with momentum and the one viewed as best on a host of issues and characteristics important to voters. Romney, however, holds the potential trump card that on the question most important to voters - who can best fix the economy - he is seen as the best candidate," said Brown. Likely GOP primary voters give Romney the lead 47 - 30 percent on that measure. Romney leads Gingrich 29 - 20 percent on who best shares voters' values and 33 - 17 percent on being trustworthy. But voters say 43 - 37 percent that Gingrich is a strong leader and 50 - 31 percent that he has the knowledge and experience to be president. Voters say 49 - 35 percent that Romney is better able to defeat President Barack Obama in November. By 52 - 44 percent, likely voters say they prefer a candidate who can defeat President Obama over one who shares their values. From January 19 - 23, Quinnipiac University surveyed 601 Republican likely primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points. The survey includes 254 voters surveyed January 19 - 21, before South Carolina results were announced, with a margin of error of +/- 6.2 percent, and 347 voters surveyed January 22 - 23, after the South Carolina results, with a margin of error of +/- 5.3 percent. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were: Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Gingrich, Romney, Santorum or Paul? (Table includes leaners and early voters) LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... SC PRIMARY WhtBrnAgnEvng TEA PARTY Tot Post Pre Men Wom Yes No Yes No Gingrich 34% 40% 26% 37% 31% 43% 28% 43% 29% Romney 36 34 37 33 38 30 49 28 41 Santorum 13 11 15 13 12 16 10 16 11 Paul 10 6 15 12 9 8 7 10 11 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 - 1 - 1 DK/NA 7 7 7 5 9 4 6 4 7 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME.. Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 Gingrich 31% 36% 26% 39% 38% 35% 35% 39% 28% Romney 40 33 29 35 42 40 40 29 36 Santorum 15 12 17 12 9 11 9 13 14 Paul 9 11 20 7 4 7 10 11 12 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - - 1 1 1 - 1 1 DK/NA 3 9 8 6 6 6 6 7 8 TREND: (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were: Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Gingrich, Romney, Santorum, or Paul? (Table includes Leaners and early voters)(na= not asked) LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS Jan 25 Jan 09 2012 2012 Gingrich 34 24 Romney 36 36 Santorum 13 16 Paul 10 10 Huntsman na 2 Perry na 5 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - DK/NA 7 7 1a. (Candidate choice given q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.. CANDIDATE CHOICE IN PRIMARY Tot NG MR RS Mind made up 61% 62% 66% 55% Might change 38 37 34 45 DK/NA 1 1 - - TREND: (Candidate choice given q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS Jan 25 Jan 09 2012 2012 Mind made up 61 44 Might change 38 54 DK/NA 1 1 6. Is your opinion of - Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... SC PRIMARY WhtBrnAgnEvng TEA PARTY Tot Post Pre Men Wom Yes No Yes No Favorable 71% 70% 72% 72% 69% 68% 79% 72% 70% Unfavorable 19 21 16 20 19 20 13 21 18 Hvn't hrd enough 7 7 8 5 9 8 7 4 8 REFUSED 3 2 4 3 3 4 1 3 3 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME.. Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 Favorable 76% 68% 63% 72% 76% 72% 71% 68% 70% Unfavorable 15 21 21 20 17 14 20 24 19 Hvn't hrd enough 7 7 11 6 4 10 7 3 9 REFUSED 1 4 4 2 3 4 2 5 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS Jan 25 Jan 09 2012 2012 Favorable 71 73 Unfavorable 19 14 Hvn't hrd enough 7 10 REFUSED 3 3 7. Is your opinion of - Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... SC PRIMARY WhtBrnAgnEvng TEA PARTY Tot Post Pre Men Wom Yes No Yes No Favorable 58% 60% 56% 64% 51% 67% 53% 78% 48% Unfavorable 13 13 12 10 16 7 14 7 16 Hvn't hrd enough 28 27 29 23 32 25 32 15 34 REFUSED 2 - 3 3 1 1 1 1 2 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME.. Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 Favorable 64% 55% 53% 59% 62% 49% 62% 62% 58% Unfavorable 15 12 12 13 12 10 8 15 18 Hvn't hrd enough 21 31 31 26 25 38 30 21 22 REFUSED - 2 3 1 1 3 - 3 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS Jan 25 Jan 09 2012 2012 Favorable 58 59 Unfavorable 13 8 Hvn't hrd enough 28 33 REFUSED 2 - 8. Is your opinion of - Ron Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... SC PRIMARY WhtBrnAgnEvng TEA PARTY Tot Post Pre Men Wom Yes No Yes No Favorable 36% 33% 41% 37% 36% 32% 33% 36% 37% Unfavorable 40 42 38 44 36 45 40 47 36 Hvn't hrd enough 20 23 17 15 26 22 25 12 24 REFUSED 3 3 4 4 2 2 2 4 3 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME.. Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 Favorable 35% 37% 54% 29% 28% 29% 39% 37% 42% Unfavorable 46 37 26 47 46 38 36 45 41 Hvn't hrd enough 16 22 17 21 22 33 22 11 15 REFUSED 3 3 3 2 4 - 3 7 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Ron Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS Jan 25 Jan 09 2012 2012 Favorable 36 34 Unfavorable 40 47 Hvn't hrd enough 20 19 REFUSED 3 1 9. Is your opinion of - Newt Gingrich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... SC PRIMARY WhtBrnAgnEvng TEA PARTY Tot Post Pre Men Wom Yes No Yes No Favorable 61% 66% 54% 67% 55% 69% 57% 77% 52% Unfavorable 26 23 31 24 29 18 34 15 32 Hvn't hrd enough 9 8 12 7 11 11 6 7 11 REFUSED 3 4 3 2 5 2 4 1 5 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME.. Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 Favorable 59% 62% 60% 63% 61% 58% 59% 70% 55% Unfavorable 32 23 17 30 30 30 26 22 31 Hvn't hrd enough 5 12 19 4 5 10 11 6 6 REFUSED 4 3 4 3 3 2 3 2 7 TREND: Is your opinion of Newt Gingrich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS Jan 25 Jan 09 2012 2012 Favorable 61 59 Unfavorable 26 29 Hvn't hrd enough 9 9 REFUSED 3 2 18. (If Registered Republican) Regardless of how you intend to vote for President, which Republican candidate do you think would do the best job handling - the economy: Gingrich, Romney, Santorum, or Paul? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... SC PRIMARY WhtBrnAgnEvng TEA PARTY Tot Post Pre Men Wom Yes No Yes No Gingrich 30% 34% 25% 30% 31% 36% 23% 37% 26% Romney 47 48 45 45 49 40 60 40 51 Santorum 8 7 8 9 6 11 6 10 6 Paul 11 6 18 13 9 9 7 11 12 DK/NA 4 4 4 3 5 4 4 2 5 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME.. Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 Gingrich 25% 33% 28% 32% 31% 32% 32% 32% 25% Romney 53 44 35 51 52 52 47 41 50 Santorum 8 7 13 6 4 8 6 11 7 Paul 11 11 22 9 5 3 10 13 16 DK/NA 2 5 2 2 8 5 4 3 2 19. (If Registered Republican) Regardless of how you intend to vote for President, which Republican candidate do you think would do the best job handling - foreign policy: Gingrich, Romney, Santorum, or Paul? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... SC PRIMARY WhtBrnAgnEvng TEA PARTY Tot Post Pre Men Wom Yes No Yes No Gingrich 53% 54% 51% 56% 50% 64% 44% 58% 49% Romney 26 25 26 23 28 18 36 23 28 Santorum 6 4 8 7 5 8 9 10 4 Paul 10 9 11 12 7 5 7 7 12 DK/NA 6 7 4 3 9 5 5 3 7 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME.. Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 Gingrich 48% 55% 47% 58% 53% 49% 47% 58% 54% Romney 31 22 17 25 33 29 29 21 23 Santorum 11 4 10 5 4 7 4 8 6 Paul 7 11 21 7 2 7 10 10 12 DK/NA 2 8 4 5 9 8 10 3 4 20. (If Registered Republican) Regardless of how you intend to vote for President, which Republican candidate do you think would do the best job handling - a crisis: Gingrich, Romney, Santorum, or Paul? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... SC PRIMARY WhtBrnAgnEvng TEA PARTY Tot Post Pre Men Wom Yes No Yes No Gingrich 47% 53% 38% 51% 42% 56% 38% 54% 42% Romney 32 30 35 26 38 21 44 25 36 Santorum 8 7 10 9 7 11 8 11 6 Paul 9 5 14 10 8 8 5 9 9 DK/NA 5 6 4 4 6 5 5 1 6 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME.. Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 Gingrich 39% 51% 46% 48% 47% 48% 49% 51% 40% Romney 41 27 21 35 38 35 34 26 37 Santorum 11 6 10 7 7 5 5 9 11 Paul 6 10 17 7 3 5 10 12 7 DK/NA 3 6 7 3 5 8 2 2 6 21. (If Registered Republican) Regardless of how you intend to vote for President, which Republican candidate do you think is best described as - having the knowledge and experience necessary to be a good president: Gingrich, Romney, Santorum, or Paul? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... SC PRIMARY WhtBrnAgnEvng TEA PARTY Tot Post Pre Men Wom Yes No Yes No Gingrich 50% 54% 46% 55% 46% 62% 40% 64% 42% Romney 31 31 31 24 38 24 44 18 38 Santorum 6 5 8 6 6 8 7 8 5 Paul 9 7 12 12 6 6 4 9 9 DK/NA 4 4 3 2 5 2 4 - 5 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME.. Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 Gingrich 44% 54% 50% 51% 51% 50% 59% 51% 45% Romney 37 28 22 33 37 37 27 27 32 Santorum 9 5 8 6 5 5 4 7 8 Paul 7 10 18 8 2 2 9 11 13 DK/NA 2 4 3 3 5 6 1 4 3 22. (If Registered Republican) Regardless of how you intend to vote for President, which Republican candidate do you think is best described as - being a strong leader: Gingrich, Romney, Santorum, or Paul? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... SC PRIMARY WhtBrnAgnEvng TEA PARTY Tot Post Pre Men Wom Yes No Yes No Gingrich 43% 48% 36% 45% 41% 53% 34% 57% 35% Romney 37 37 36 33 41 29 52 27 42 Santorum 6 5 8 7 5 8 6 7 6 Paul 10 6 15 12 8 8 4 9 11 DK/NA 4 4 4 3 6 2 4 - 6 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME.. Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 Gingrich 39% 45% 40% 43% 47% 41% 43% 47% 38% Romney 41 35 25 40 44 41 43 30 36 Santorum 11 4 8 6 4 5 4 7 10 Paul 8 11 21 7 2 7 7 13 10 DK/NA 3 5 6 4 4 6 3 3 6 23. (If Registered Republican) Regardless of how you intend to vote for President, which Republican candidate do you think is best described as - sharing your values: Gingrich, Romney, Santorum, or Paul? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... SC PRIMARY WhtBrnAgnEvng TEA PARTY Tot Post Pre Men Wom Yes No Yes No Gingrich 20% 22% 16% 21% 18% 23% 12% 24% 17% Romney 29 29 30 24 35 17 48 21 34 Santorum 30 29 31 34 26 43 25 41 25 Paul 14 12 17 16 13 13 10 13 15 DK/NA 6 8 4 5 8 3 5 1 9 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME.. Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 Gingrich 17% 21% 21% 16% 23% 18% 20% 22% 21% Romney 34 27 15 31 40 31 33 28 25 Santorum 31 29 30 36 23 28 30 31 30 Paul 13 15 29 10 6 13 11 15 18 DK/NA 5 7 5 7 8 10 6 5 6 24. (If Registered Republican) Regardless of how you intend to vote for President, which Republican candidate do you think is best described as - caring about the needs and problems of people like you: Gingrich, Romney, Santorum, or Paul? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... SC PRIMARY WhtBrnAgnEvng TEA PARTY Tot Post Pre Men Wom Yes No Yes No Gingrich 28% 33% 20% 29% 26% 33% 21% 34% 24% Romney 29 30 27 24 33 21 40 21 33 Santorum 21 19 22 23 18 28 20 27 18 Paul 15 10 23 16 15 12 10 15 16 DK/NA 7 7 8 7 8 7 9 2 9 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME.. Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 Gingrich 25% 29% 25% 29% 30% 35% 23% 30% 27% Romney 30 28 21 30 35 36 27 26 28 Santorum 25 19 23 22 17 14 25 21 21 Paul 14 16 25 14 7 9 20 17 15 DK/NA 7 8 6 5 11 6 6 7 9 25. (If Registered Republican) Regardless of how you intend to vote for President, which Republican candidate do you think is best described as - being competent: Gingrich, Romney, Santorum, or Paul? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... SC PRIMARY WhtBrnAgnEvng TEA PARTY Tot Post Pre Men Wom Yes No Yes No Gingrich 39% 46% 30% 41% 38% 49% 29% 48% 34% Romney 36 33 40 32 41 26 52 27 42 Santorum 9 8 10 10 7 13 7 12 7 Paul 10 6 16 13 8 6 6 10 11 DK/NA 5 6 4 4 6 6 6 3 6 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME.. Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 Gingrich 33% 43% 37% 43% 38% 45% 37% 40% 37% Romney 45 31 26 38 43 31 42 34 39 Santorum 11 8 11 7 9 10 6 10 9 Paul 9 11 20 8 4 6 11 13 11 DK/NA 2 7 5 4 7 8 4 4 4 26. (If Registered Republican) Regardless of how you intend to vote for President, which Republican candidate do you think is best described as - being inspiring: Gingrich, Romney, Santorum, or Paul? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... SC PRIMARY WhtBrnAgnEvng TEA PARTY Tot Post Pre Men Wom Yes No Yes No Gingrich 38% 46% 27% 43% 32% 47% 31% 54% 28% Romney 28 27 30 20 37 25 37 18 34 Santorum 14 13 15 16 11 17 13 13 15 Paul 13 10 18 16 11 6 10 12 15 DK/NA 7 5 11 6 9 5 10 3 9 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME.. Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 Gingrich 35% 39% 29% 40% 46% 38% 38% 37% 43% Romney 27 28 26 29 28 37 23 32 21 Santorum 16 12 19 12 10 12 13 14 13 Paul 17 12 24 13 4 9 20 9 17 DK/NA 5 9 3 7 12 4 6 7 6 27. (If Registered Republican) Regardless of how you intend to vote for President, which Republican candidate do you think is best described as - being trustworthy: Gingrich, Romney, Santorum, or Paul? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... SC PRIMARY WhtBrnAgnEvng TEA PARTY Tot Post Pre Men Wom Yes No Yes No Gingrich 17% 21% 12% 18% 16% 22% 13% 25% 12% Romney 33 34 32 29 38 24 48 26 37 Santorum 27 25 30 32 23 36 26 35 24 Paul 15 11 20 17 14 11 7 13 17 DK/NA 7 8 5 5 9 8 6 2 9 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME.. Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 Gingrich 15% 18% 14% 17% 20% 20% 19% 21% 11% Romney 37 32 22 33 45 40 34 29 36 Santorum 30 26 29 31 22 20 28 28 29 Paul 14 16 29 12 6 6 15 18 19 DK/NA 4 8 6 7 7 14 4 4 5 28. (If Registered Republican) Regardless of how you intend to vote for President, which Republican candidate do you think is best described as - being able to defeat Barack Obama in the general election: Gingrich, Romney, Santorum, or Paul? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... SC PRIMARY WhtBrnAgnEvng TEA PARTY Tot Post Pre Men Wom Yes No Yes No Gingrich 35% 42% 26% 40% 31% 45% 27% 49% 27% Romney 49 45 55 44 54 41 62 38 55 Santorum 5 3 7 6 3 5 3 6 4 Paul 3 1 7 5 2 3 1 3 4 DK/NA 7 9 5 6 9 5 7 4 9 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME.. Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 Gingrich 30% 38% 28% 39% 39% 35% 37% 45% 26% Romney 56 45 48 49 47 51 52 38 57 Santorum 7 4 8 2 5 3 3 5 6 Paul 2 4 8 3 - 4 1 6 4 DK/NA 5 9 8 6 8 7 6 7 7 29. (If Registered Republican) Which is more important to you when you decide how to vote in the Republican primary for President; voting for someone who shares your values, or voting for someone who can defeat Barack Obama? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... SC PRIMARY WhtBrnAgnEvng TEA PARTY Tot Post Pre Men Wom Yes No Yes No Shares values 44% 43% 46% 48% 40% 49% 38% 35% 50% Defeats Obama 52 53 51 50 54 49 56 63 46 DK/NA 4 4 3 2 6 3 6 2 4 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME.. Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 Shares values 41% 46% 61% 41% 33% 53% 43% 46% 41% Defeats Obama 55 51 37 55 62 42 55 52 53 DK/NA 4 3 2 4 5 6 2 2 5
