January 27, 2012 - Romney Pulls Ahead In See-Saw Florida GOP Primary, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Men Shift From Gingrich To Romney Word format Just four days before the nation's first big-state presidential primary, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney opens up a 38 - 29 percent lead over former House Speaker Newt Gingrich among Republican likely voters in Florida, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Only 6 percent are undecided, but 32 percent say they might change their mind by Tuesday. This compares to results of a January 25 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN- uh-pe-ack) University, showing Romney with 36 percent of likely primary voters to Gingrich's 34 percent. Wednesday's survey showed Gingrich ahead 40 - 34 percent among voters surveyed after the South Carolina primary. In today's survey, men back Romney 36 - 29 percent, a shift from January 25, when men backed Gingrich 37 - 33 percent. Romney leads 40 - 30 percent among women, virtually unchanged. Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul has 14 percent of likely primary voters today, with 12 percent for former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum. Romney gets a 61 - 28 percent favorability rating from likely primary voters, compared to 50 - 38 percent favorable for Gingrich, 53 - 19 percent favorable for Santorum and a negative 35 - 42 percent for Paul. "Speaker Newt Gingrich's momentum from his South Carolina victory appears to have stalled and Gov. Mitt Romney seems to be pulling away in Florida," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Romney also has a better favorability rating from likely primary voters, which supports his lead in the horse race. Of course, with four days before Election Day, there is time for another reversal. Three in 10 voters say they might change their mind." "With the debates now over, Gingrich will need some other way to reverse the tide that appears to be going against him," Brown added. From January 24 - 26, Quinnipiac University surveyed 580 Republican likely primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were: Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Gingrich, Romney, Santorum or Paul? (Table includes leaners and early voters) LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No Gingrich 29% 29% 30% 36% 16% 39% 27% 41% 24% Romney 38 36 40 34 50 29 49 20 47 Santorum 12 10 14 15 6 18 10 18 10 Paul 14 19 8 10 20 6 9 16 12 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 DK/NA 6 5 6 4 5 6 3 4 6 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 Gingrich 30% 29% 17% 36% 32% 27% 23% 37% 30% Romney 43 36 41 34 43 30 45 36 44 Santorum 12 12 14 12 9 9 12 14 13 Paul 11 15 22 12 9 21 18 9 11 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 - 2 2 - 1 - DK/NA 3 7 6 6 4 12 2 3 2 TREND: (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were: Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Gingrich, Romney, Santorum, or Paul? (Table includes leaners and early voters)(na= not asked) LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS Jan 27 Jan 25 Jan 09 2012 2012 2012 Gingrich 29 34 24 Romney 38 36 36 Santorum 12 13 16 Paul 14 10 10 Huntsman na na 2 Perry na na 5 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - DK/NA 6 7 7 1a. (Candidate choice given q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS CAND CHOICE Q1 Tot NG MR Mind made up 67% 70% 67% Might change 32 29 32 DK/NA 1 1 1 TREND: (Candidate choice given q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS Jan 27 Jan 25 Jan 09 2012 2012 2012 Mind made up 67 61 44 Might change 32 38 54 DK/NA 1 1 1 2. Is your opinion of - Newt Gingrich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No Favorable 50% 52% 48% 60% 34% 59% 49% 65% 44% Unfavorable 38 38 37 32 52 29 40 29 42 Hvn't hrd enough 9 6 12 7 11 10 7 4 10 REFUSED 4 4 3 2 3 2 4 2 4 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 Favorable 55% 48% 45% 53% 53% 41% 48% 60% 55% Unfavorable 37 38 39 40 35 35 40 33 40 Hvn't hrd enough 6 10 14 5 8 20 7 6 4 REFUSED 2 4 3 3 4 4 4 1 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Newt Gingrich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS Jan 27 Jan 25 Jan 09 2012 2012 2012 Favorable 50 61 59 Unfavorable 38 26 29 Hvn't hrd enough 9 9 9 REFUSED 4 3 2 3. Is your opinion of - Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No Favorable 61% 60% 63% 63% 67% 56% 73% 61% 64% Unfavorable 28 32 24 29 22 31 20 33 25 Hvn't hrd enough 9 7 11 7 11 11 5 5 8 REFUSED 2 2 2 1 - 2 2 1 3 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 Favorable 72% 56% 55% 63% 70% 48% 66% 63% 73% Unfavorable 23 30 30 29 21 29 30 27 23 Hvn't hrd enough 4 11 15 6 6 21 2 8 3 REFUSED 1 2 - 2 4 2 2 1 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS Jan 27 Jan 25 Jan 09 2012 2012 2012 Favorable 61 71 73 Unfavorable 28 19 14 Hvn't hrd enough 9 7 10 REFUSED 2 3 3 4. Is your opinion of - Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No Favorable 53% 54% 51% 60% 43% 63% 48% 67% 48% Unfavorable 19 23 15 14 27 14 21 17 18 Hvn't hrd enough 26 21 32 25 28 21 30 15 31 REFUSED 2 2 2 1 3 2 1 1 3 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 Favorable 61% 49% 48% 56% 53% 41% 52% 58% 65% Unfavorable 18 20 23 18 15 21 18 19 20 Hvn't hrd enough 20 29 29 24 27 37 27 23 15 REFUSED 1 3 1 2 4 1 4 - - TREND: Is your opinion of Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS Jan 27 Jan 25 Jan 09 2012 2012 2012 Favorable 53 58 59 Unfavorable 19 13 8 Hvn't hrd enough 26 28 33 REFUSED 2 2 - 5. Is your opinion of - Ron Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No Favorable 35% 42% 28% 33% 42% 29% 33% 39% 33% Unfavorable 42 42 43 47 33 51 40 49 41 Hvn't hrd enough 20 13 27 17 25 19 25 11 24 REFUSED 3 3 3 3 - 1 2 2 3 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 Favorable 39% 34% 44% 34% 29% 37% 40% 34% 39% Unfavorable 43 41 34 43 48 37 33 51 42 Hvn't hrd enough 15 22 22 19 19 26 25 14 18 REFUSED 2 3 - 3 4 - 2 1 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Ron Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS Jan 27 Jan 25 Jan 09 2012 2012 2012 Favorable 35 36 34 Unfavorable 42 40 47 Hvn't hrd enough 20 20 19 REFUSED 3 3 1
