January 30, 2012 - Romney Romps To 14-Point Lead In Florida GOP Primary, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds Word format Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has a 43 - 29 percent lead over former House Speaker Newt Gingrich among Republican likely voters in Florida, the nation's first big-state presidential primary, according to Quinnipiac University poll released today. Only 7 percent are undecided, but 24 percent say they might change their mind by tomorrow's election This compares to a 38 - 29 percent Romney lead in a January 27 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. In today's survey, self-described conservatives go to Romney 40 - 31 percent. He gets 38 percent of white evangelical Christians to Gingrich's 33 percent and wins 40 percent of Tea Party members to Gingrich's 35 percent. Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum each have 11 percent of likely primary voters today. Romney gets a 64 - 25 percent favorability rating from likely primary voters, compared to 61 - 28 percent Friday. Gingrich has 51 - 42 percent favorability, compared to 50 - 28 percent Friday. Santorum is at 58 - 16 percent favorable, with a negative 35 - 45 percent for Paul. "Gov. Mitt Romney is headed towards a double-digit victory that touches all the GOP bases," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Romney carries every part of the GOP coalition, including the parts central to Gingrich - self- described conservatives, white evangelical Christians and Tea Party supporters. If this margin holds up tomorrow, it's hard to see where Gingrich goes from here." From January 27 - 29, Quinnipiac University surveyed 539 Republican likely primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were: Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Gingrich, Romney, Santorum or Paul? (Table includes leaners and early voters) LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS........................... WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No Gingrich 29% 29% 28% 31% 24% 33% 26% 35% 24% Romney 43 42 44 40 47 38 49 40 46 Santorum 11 10 12 12 9 13 9 10 11 Paul 11 12 9 9 14 11 10 10 11 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - - - - - - 1 DK/NA 7 6 7 6 6 6 6 4 6 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 Gingrich 22% 33% 30% 26% 30% 32% 31% 26% 25% Romney 51 38 37 43 48 39 39 50 45 Santorum 12 10 13 10 10 10 8 12 14 Paul 10 12 17 12 4 15 11 9 11 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 - - - 1 - DK/NA 6 7 3 8 7 5 12 2 5 TREND: (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were: Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Gingrich, Romney, Santorum, or Paul? (Table includes leaners and early voters)(na= not asked) LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS Jan 30 Jan 27 Jan 25 Jan 09 2012 2012 2012 2012 Gingrich 29 29 34 24 Romney 43 38 36 36 Santorum 11 12 13 16 Paul 11 14 10 10 Huntsman na na na 2 Perry na na na 5 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 1 - DK/NA 7 6 7 7 1a. (Candidate choice given q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS CAND CHOICE Q1 Tot NG MR Mind made up 75% 72% 77% Might change 24 28 21 DK/NA 1 - 3 TREND: (Candidate choice given q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS Jan 30 Jan 27 Jan 25 Jan 09 2012 2012 2012 2012 Mind made up 75 67 61 44 Might change 24 32 38 54 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 2. Is your opinion of - Newt Gingrich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS........................... WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No Favorable 51% 54% 49% 55% 41% 54% 50% 62% 45% Unfavorable 42 40 43 38 51 40 43 33 48 Hvn't hrd enough 2 2 3 2 4 3 2 1 3 REFUSED 5 4 5 5 4 3 5 3 4 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 Favorable 46% 55% 54% 49% 53% 52% 51% 54% 50% Unfavorable 46 39 40 47 38 40 45 37 45 Hvn't hrd enough 2 3 5 1 2 1 - 5 2 REFUSED 6 3 1 4 7 6 3 4 3 TREND: Is your opinion of Newt Gingrich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS Jan 30 Jan 27 Jan 25 Jan 09 2012 2012 2012 2012 Favorable 51 50 61 59 Unfavorable 42 38 26 29 Hvn't hrd enough 2 9 9 9 REFUSED 5 4 3 2 3. Is your opinion of - Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS........................... WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No Favorable 64% 64% 65% 64% 68% 63% 68% 61% 67% Unfavorable 25 27 23 28 18 31 22 29 24 Hvn't hrd enough 6 5 7 4 10 4 6 5 5 REFUSED 4 4 5 4 4 2 4 5 4 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 Favorable 71% 60% 61% 62% 70% 48% 65% 69% 69% Unfavorable 21 28 29 28 19 33 25 23 25 Hvn't hrd enough 3 7 9 4 6 13 3 6 2 REFUSED 4 4 1 6 6 6 7 3 3 TREND: Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS Jan 30 Jan 27 Jan 25 Jan 09 2012 2012 2012 2012 Favorable 64 61 71 73 Unfavorable 25 28 19 14 Hvn't hrd enough 6 9 7 10 REFUSED 4 2 3 3 4. Is your opinion of - Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS........................... WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No Favorable 58% 60% 56% 69% 36% 62% 57% 69% 52% Unfavorable 16 21 10 13 21 13 18 13 19 Hvn't hrd enough 24 17 32 16 41 23 24 17 27 REFUSED 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 Favorable 60% 57% 53% 58% 60% 43% 54% 62% 66% Unfavorable 21 13 14 17 17 13 24 13 15 Hvn't hrd enough 16 29 33 22 20 43 22 22 18 REFUSED 3 2 - 2 2 1 - 4 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS Jan 30 Jan 27 Jan 25 Jan 09 2012 2012 2012 2012 Favorable 58 53 58 59 Unfavorable 16 19 13 8 Hvn't hrd enough 24 26 28 33 REFUSED 2 2 2 - 5. Is your opinion of - Ron Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS........................... WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No Favorable 35% 35% 34% 35% 33% 32% 41% 34% 36% Unfavorable 45 49 40 50 36 49 43 52 41 Hvn't hrd enough 17 13 22 13 28 16 12 10 20 REFUSED 3 3 3 2 3 3 4 4 3 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 Favorable 32% 37% 40% 32% 33% 37% 27% 39% 32% Unfavorable 51 41 34 52 46 27 47 46 55 Hvn't hrd enough 14 19 25 12 16 30 23 13 10 REFUSED 4 3 1 3 5 6 3 2 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Ron Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS Jan 30 Jan 27 Jan 25 Jan 09 2012 2012 2012 2012 Favorable 35 35 36 34 Unfavorable 45 42 40 47 Hvn't hrd enough 17 20 20 19 REFUSED 3 3 3 1
