March 20, 2013 - Crist, Sink Top Scott In Florida Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Back Stand Your Ground Word format PDF format Former Gov. Charlie Crist, running as a Democrat, tops Florida Gov. Rick Scott 50 - 34 percent among registered voters if the 2014 election were today, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Gov. Scott leads State Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam 47 - 24 percent in a GOP primary. Alex Sink, the Democrat who lost to Scott in 2010, leads him 45 - 34 percent today. Florida voters say 50 - 40 percent that Crist's switch from Republican to independent and now to Democrat is a positive thing that shows he is a pragmatist, rather than a negative thing that shows he lacks core beliefs. Scott's potential vulnerability is evidenced by the fact that only 32 percent of voters say he deserves a second term in office, including just 28 percent of independent voters. His job approval rating is a negative 36 - 49 percent, compared to his negative 36 - 45 percent disapproval in a December 19 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. "There isn't much good news in these numbers for Gov. Rick Scott, but there is some," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "His large lead over Agriculture Secretary Adam Putnam in a hypothetical Republican primary gives him some solace that he does not have to worry about an intraparty challenge. Scott's support among Republicans appears pretty solid, although he has a lot of fences to mend with independent voters and he has virtually no crossover appeal to Democrats. "The fact that voters think it's an asset that former Gov. Charlie Crist moved from conservative Republican to a Democrat with very different political views will be a key metric to watch between now and the 2014 voting." "These numbers indicate Republicans will have a tough job turning around Crist's lead over Scott by reminding voters of Crist's evolution," said Brown. In a Crist-Scott matchup, the incumbent carries Republicans 76 - 16 percent, but loses Democrats 81 - 7 percent and loses the crucial independent vote 49 - 29 percent. "If Scott is to have any chance for a second term he needs to win a greater share of Republicans than he loses among Democrats and move into parity among independents," said Brown. "There is little gender gap: 49 percent of men and 51 percent of women back Crist." In other potential gubernatorial matchups, Sink leads Putnam 37 - 29 percent and Crist tops Putnam 49 - 30 percent. Florida voters remain strongly behind the state's "Stand Your Ground" law, 56 - 36 percent, virtually unchanged from last June's 56 - 37 percent support. Support is 62 - 32 percent among men, 51 - 40 percent among women, 78 - 15 percent among Republicans and 62 - 30 percent among independent voters. Democrats are opposed 58 - 36 percent. White voters support "Stand Your Ground" 62 - 31 percent with black voters opposed 62 - 26 percent. Hispanic voters are divided with 47 percent in favor and 42 percent opposed. When it comes to popular appeal, voters view Scott unfavorably 46 - 33 percent, while Crist gets a 49 - 30 percent positive favorability. Sink gets a 29 - 12 percent favorability while 58 percent don't know enough about her to form an opinion, with 80 percent who don't know enough about Putnam. Scott's proposal that every public school teacher in Florida receive a $2,500 pay raise gets 74 - 21 percent support. And, by 50 - 40 percent, voters back his decision to expand Medicaid coverage to new recipients. U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson wins a 49 - 28 percent job approval, with 48 - 33 percent for Sen. Marco Rubio. Voters disapprove 52 - 25 percent of the job the State Legislature is doing. From March 13 - 18, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,000 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points. The survey includes 353 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 5.2 percent. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more information or RSS feed, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Adam Putnam and Rick Scott for whom would you vote? REGISTERED REPUBLICANS Tot Men Wom Putnam 24% 29% 19% Scott 47 44 49 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 5 DK/NA 23 23 23 2. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Charlie Crist the Democrat and Rick Scott the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Crist 50% 16% 81% 49% 49% 51% 44% 83% 53% Scott 34 76 7 29 39 29 41 4 26 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 3 2 4 3 3 3 4 DK/NA 12 5 9 18 8 15 11 10 16 North/ Panhd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Crist 45% 47% 44% 44% 67% Scott 41 35 41 36 19 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 3 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 4 - 2 DK/NA 9 11 11 19 13 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Crist 54% 49% 49% 57% 53% 45% 54% 50% Scott 32 35 33 31 37 29 35 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 - 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 4 3 2 7 1 3 DK/NA 10 13 13 7 7 19 9 10 3. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Charlie Crist the Democrat and Adam Putnam the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Crist 49% 14% 82% 47% 48% 50% 43% 79% 57% Putnam 30 70 3 26 35 26 37 5 22 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 2 2 3 2 3 2 4 DK/NA 17 12 12 24 13 20 17 15 17 North/ Panhd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Crist 45% 49% 42% 46% 61% Putnam 33 36 35 31 18 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 4 - 2 DK/NA 16 11 18 23 19 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Crist 48% 50% 52% 52% 50% 45% 49% 51% Putnam 32 30 28 30 31 29 32 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 1 - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 3 2 2 5 2 2 DK/NA 16 17 17 14 16 20 16 15 4. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Alex Sink the Democrat and Rick Scott the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Sink 45% 14% 79% 38% 43% 47% 41% 69% 44% Scott 34 73 8 31 39 30 39 8 33 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 4 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 1 2 5 4 3 4 6 3 DK/NA 16 10 10 25 13 19 15 14 20 North/ Panhd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Sink 38% 46% 39% 35% 58% Scott 40 35 40 38 21 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 1 6 1 3 DK/NA 16 16 14 26 16 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Sink 49% 43% 42% 56% 48% 44% 46% 45% Scott 32 35 35 32 33 33 34 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 5 2 3 4 2 4 DK/NA 13 17 17 10 14 18 17 14 5. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Alex Sink the Democrat and Adam Putnam the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Sink 37% 8% 74% 22% 35% 38% 32% 67% 37% Putnam 29 69 4 23 33 25 35 7 20 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 2 2 5 5 2 4 2 4 DK/NA 29 18 19 47 25 32 27 22 38 North/ Panhd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Sink 32% 36% 32% 34% 48% Putnam 33 34 34 33 14 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 4 2 1 1 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 1 6 3 3 DK/NA 27 26 28 29 32 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Sink 40% 36% 37% 43% 41% 28% 40% 41% Putnam 30 29 29 26 30 31 29 29 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 2 4 1 1 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 5 2 2 4 2 4 DK/NA 25 30 28 25 26 36 26 24 6. Is your opinion of Rick Scott favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 33% 64% 13% 30% 37% 29% 36% 13% 33% Unfavorable 46 20 69 46 45 47 46 59 37 Hvn't hrd enough 18 12 15 21 14 20 14 27 26 REFUSED 3 4 3 3 3 4 4 - 5 TREND: Is your opinion of Rick Scott favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Mar 20 Dec 19 Feb 02 Aug 19 Jul 30 Jun 09 2013 2012 2011 2010 2010 2010 Favorable 33 31 28 28 29 31 Unfavorable 46 43 24 40 30 22 Hvn't hrd enough 18 24 45 30 38 46 REFUSED 3 2 3 2 2 1 7. Is your opinion of Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 49% 22% 75% 48% 46% 51% 45% 69% 49% Unfavorable 30 60 6 30 32 28 35 7 20 Hvn't hrd enough 20 18 17 20 20 19 17 24 28 REFUSED 2 1 2 2 2 1 2 1 3 TREND: Is your opinion of Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? FAVORABLE..... High Low Mar 20 Dec 19 Aug 19 Jul 30 Jun 9 Feb 19 Dec 19 2013 2012 2010 2010 2010 2009 2012 Favorable 49 47 53 49 52 68 47 Unfavorable 30 33 33 35 33 21 33 Hvn't hrd enough 20 19 10 13 11 9 19 REFUSED 2 2 4 3 3 3 2 8. Is your opinion of Alex Sink favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 29% 15% 47% 20% 30% 28% 29% 35% 28% Unfavorable 12 23 4 11 14 10 15 6 3 Hvn't hrd enough 58 61 48 68 55 61 56 58 67 REFUSED 1 1 - 2 1 1 1 1 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Alex Sink favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? FAVORABLE..... High Low Mar 20 Dec 19 Aug 19 Jul 30 Jun 9 Aug 19 Apr 19 2013 2012 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 Favorable 29 27 30 25 28 30 22 Unfavorable 12 14 15 15 14 15 15 Hvn't hrd enough 58 57 53 58 56 53 61 REFUSED 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 9. Is your opinion of Adam Putnam favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 13% 26% 7% 8% 16% 10% 14% 6% 8% Unfavorable 7 1 13 6 8 6 5 14 6 Hvn't hrd enough 80 73 80 85 76 83 80 78 85 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Adam Putnam favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Mar 21 Dec 19 2013 2012 Favorable 13 13 Unfavorable 7 6 Hvn't hrd enough 80 80 REFUSED 1 1 15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Scott is handling his job as Governor? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 36% 66% 18% 33% 40% 32% 40% 18% 35% Disapprove 49 26 71 45 47 51 48 66 38 DK/NA 15 8 11 22 13 17 12 17 27 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Approve 34% 37% 38% 32% 38% 32% 39% 36% Disapprove 55 46 43 60 54 41 51 52 DK/NA 11 17 19 8 8 27 10 12 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Scott is handling his job as Governor? APPROVE....... High Low Mar 20 Dec 19 Jun 27 Jun 20 May 24 May 24 May 25 2013 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2011 Approve 36 36 35 39 41 41 29 Disapprove 49 45 48 49 46 46 57 DK/NA 15 19 17 13 13 13 14 16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 25% 43% 15% 23% 29% 22% 27% 20% 23% Disapprove 52 38 66 51 53 51 51 60 47 DK/NA 23 19 19 26 18 27 22 20 30 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? APPROVE....... High Low Mar 20 Dec 19 Jun 20 May 24 Jan 26 Sep 23 Mar 20 2013 2012 2012 2012 2012 2004 2013 Approve 25 35 31 31 31 51 25 Disapprove 52 44 50 48 49 34 52 DK/NA 23 20 19 21 20 15 23 17. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Marco Rubio is handling his job as United States Senator? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 48% 87% 24% 45% 50% 47% 52% 24% 50% Disapprove 33 9 56 28 32 33 32 50 27 DK/NA 19 4 20 26 18 20 16 27 23 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Marco Rubio is handling his job as United States Senator? APPROVE....... High Low Mar 20 Dec 19 Jun 20 May 23 Jan 26 May 23 Feb 03 2013 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2011 Approve 48 52 51 54 48 54 42 Disapprove 33 30 31 27 33 27 20 DK/NA 19 18 18 19 20 19 37 18. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 49% 29% 72% 45% 48% 49% 44% 67% 55% Disapprove 28 53 9 27 30 27 35 13 12 DK/NA 23 18 19 27 22 24 22 20 34 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator? (*Low also 42% Aug 2004) APPROVE....... High Low Mar 20 Dec 19 Jun 20 May 24 Jan 26 Feb 06 Aug 04 2013 2012 2012 2012 2012 2007 2011* Approve 49 51 47 44 43 54 42 Disapprove 28 31 32 35 30 18 35 DK/NA 23 18 21 21 27 28 23 20. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Florida today; are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Very satisfied 4% 5% 5% 4% 4% 5% 3% 7% 10% Smwht satisfied 46 58 41 43 49 44 48 43 45 Smwht dissatisfied 31 22 34 37 32 31 29 35 34 Very dissatisfied 16 13 19 14 14 18 17 13 11 DK/NA 2 2 1 2 1 3 3 2 - COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Very satisfied 4% 5% 5% 3% 4% 5% 3% 5% Smwht satisfied 46 46 49 41 50 45 46 47 Smwht dissatisfied 35 30 27 36 33 39 30 30 Very dissatisfied 14 17 16 20 12 9 20 16 DK/NA 1 3 3 - 2 3 1 2 TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Florida today; are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied or very dissatisfied? (*combined High also 63% Sep 2004) VERY+SMWHT.... High Low Mar 20 Dec 19 Jun 20 May 24 Jan 10 Feb 24 Sep 22 2013 2012 2012 2012 2012 2005* 2011 Very satisfied 4 6 5 4 4 15 4 Smwht satisfied 46 43 36 39 38 48 31 Smwht dissatisfied 31 33 34 30 32 22 29 Very dissatisfied 16 17 25 25 24 15 34 DK/NA 2 2 1 2 2 1 2 21. Do you feel that Rick Scott deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Yes/Deserves 32% 62% 14% 28% 36% 29% 34% 15% 38% No/Does not 55 28 77 54 54 56 54 73 43 DK/NA 13 10 10 17 10 16 12 12 19 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Yes/Deserves 29% 33% 35% 27% 33% 34% 35% 30% No/Does not 59 53 51 63 58 49 54 58 DK/NA 12 14 14 10 9 17 11 12 TREND: Do you feel that Rick Scott deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? Mar 20 Dec 19 2013 2012 Yes/Deserves 32 30 No/Does not 55 52 DK/NA 13 18 22. In the last three years, Charlie Crist has changed his party affiliation from Republican to Independent to Democrat. Some people say this is a positive thing because it shows he is a pragmatist who can change with the times and issues. Other people say it is a negative thing because it shows he has no core beliefs. Which comes closest to your view of Charlie Crist? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Positive thing 50% 16% 76% 51% 48% 52% 47% 65% 52% Negative thing 40 80 13 36 40 39 45 15 35 DK/NA 10 4 10 14 12 8 8 20 12 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Positive thing 54% 49% 51% 55% 55% 58% 54% 45% Negative thing 40 40 37 42 41 32 37 45 DK/NA 6 12 12 4 4 9 9 10 23. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Scott is handling the state budget? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 34% 62% 19% 28% 40% 29% 37% 21% 31% Disapprove 50 25 70 52 50 51 49 67 42 DK/NA 15 12 11 20 10 20 14 12 27 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Approve 37% 33% 35% 33% 39% 29% 37% 35% Disapprove 53 49 47 57 52 50 52 51 DK/NA 10 18 18 11 9 21 11 15 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Scott is handling the state budget? APPROVE....... High Low Mar 20 Dec 19 Jun 20 May 24 Jan 10 Jun 20 May 25 2013 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2011 Approve 34 32 38 37 36 38 30 Disapprove 50 47 48 48 51 48 59 DK/NA 15 20 14 14 13 14 11 24. Do you think the state budget is fair or unfair to people like you? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Fair 40% 60% 24% 42% 45% 35% 44% 18% 36% Unfair 43 26 62 38 39 46 39 65 42 DK/NA 18 14 14 20 16 19 17 17 22 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Fair 46% 37% 37% 40% 53% 42% 38% 40% Unfair 38 44 44 48 35 37 48 42 DK/NA 16 18 19 12 12 22 14 18 TREND: Do you think the state budget is fair or unfair to people like you? (*new state budget) Mar 20 Dec 19 Jun 20 Jan 10 Sep 21 Aug 05 May 25 2013 2012 2012 2012 2011 2011* 2011* Fair 40 45 40 39 41 33 29 Unfair 43 39 48 48 48 51 54 DK/NA 18 16 13 14 11 16 16 25. Governor Scott has proposed giving every full-time public school teacher in Florida a $2500 pay raise. Do you think this is a good idea or a bad idea? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Good idea 74% 63% 84% 75% 73% 76% 71% 80% 81% Bad idea 21 33 12 21 23 20 24 18 13 DK/NA 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 3 5 HAVE KIDS...... <18 InPubSch Good idea 80% 82% Bad idea 17 16 DK/NA 3 2 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Good idea 72% 76% 77% 78% 73% 80% 78% 70% Bad idea 23 20 18 20 24 17 19 24 DK/NA 5 4 5 2 3 2 2 7 26. Florida has a law that says a person is legally entitled to fight back with deadly force if they feel threatened, even if they could retreat instead. Do you support or oppose that law? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Support 56% 78% 36% 62% 62% 51% 62% 26% 47% Oppose 36 15 58 30 32 40 31 62 42 DK/NA 8 7 7 7 6 9 6 12 11 DENSITY............ GUN HSHOLD Urban Suburb Rural Yes No Support 53% 51% 73% 71% 44% Oppose 39 41 22 22 48 DK/NA 8 9 5 7 9 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Support 49% 59% 61% 49% 48% 60% 61% 51% Oppose 46 32 32 42 46 35 34 38 DK/NA 5 9 6 9 6 5 4 11 TREND: Florida has a law that says a person is legally entitled to fight back with deadly force if they feel threatened, even if they could retreat instead. Do you support or oppose that law? Mar 20 Jun 20 May 24 2013 2012 2012 Support 56 56 56 Oppose 36 37 35 DK/NA 8 8 8 27. As you may know Medicaid is a government program that pays for health care for low-income people and others with certain disabilities. Do you think that increasing the number of people eligible for Medicaid coverage in Florida is a good idea or a bad idea? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Good idea 50% 26% 73% 46% 51% 49% 46% 75% 43% Bad idea 40 64 20 42 40 39 45 16 39 DK/NA 11 10 7 12 9 12 10 9 19 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Good idea 45% 52% 57% 45% 44% 53% 47% 50% Bad idea 46 37 35 44 44 37 44 37 DK/NA 9 12 8 11 12 10 8 13 Demographic Summary
