June 18, 2013 - Scott Chips Away At Crist Lead In Florida Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Gov's Grades Are Low, But Best Ever PDF format Florida Gov. Rick Scott trails former Gov. Charlie Crist 47 - 37 percent in his 2014 reelection bid, compared to his 16-point deficit in March, and gets his best job approval rating so far, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Crist, the Republican-turned independent-turned Democrat, was up 50 - 34 percent in a March 20 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. In today's survey, U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson, who some Democrats are pushing to run for governor, tops Scott 48 - 38 percent, running as well as Crist. The incumbent would defeat former state Senate Democratic leader Nan Rich 42 - 36 percent. Voters are divided 43 - 44 percent in their job approval for Gov. Scott, his highest approval rating since he was elected and up from a negative 36 - 49 percent score March 20. Voters still say 50 - 35 percent that Scott does not deserve to be reelected, but that also is his best score so far on that question, better than the 55 - 32 percent 'no' vote in March. Scott gets a divided 40 - 42 percent favorability rating, but that also is up from a negative 33 - 46 percent favorability rating March 20, and his best score so far. "It is an indication of how far down Florida Gov. Rick Scott's numbers have been that he can take some solace from a poll that finds him losing by 10 points to his predecessor in the governor's office," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "In addition to cutting the deficit between himself and former Gov. Charlie Crist, Gov. Scott sees his tepid job approval and favorability numbers and his still-negative reelection numbers as notably improved." "Now that doesn't mean that happy days are here again for the governor, but if he is going to make a comeback these are the kind of steps that would be required. Whether it is the start of something larger, we'll see in the coming months," Brown added. By 48 - 31 percent Florida voters have a favorable opinion of Crist, virtually unchanged. Sen. Nelson has a 41 - 23 percent favorability rating and a 51 - 29 percent job approval, while 84 percent of voters haven't heard enough about Ms. Rich to form an opinion of her. In a possible matchup between Scott and Crist, the governor carries Republicans 75 - 13 percent, but loses Democrats 83 - 8 percent and independent voters 45 - 33 percent. Men are tied 43 - 43 percent, while women back Crist 51 - 32 percent. "For Scott to win, he will have to do better among Republicans than Crist does among Democrats; carry independent voters and drastically reduce his deficit among women. That's a tall order, but there are 17 months until the election," Brown said. Crist's change in party affiliation is positive evidence of political pragmatism, 47 percent of voters say. Another 44 percent of voters say this is negative evidence that Crist lacks core beliefs. In March, 50 percent of voters said Crist's party switching was a good thing, compared to 40 percent who saw it as a bad thing. One reason that Scott may be edging up in the voters' eyes is that by 33 - 18 percent voters say the state's economy is getting better, compared to 31 - 21 percent who felt that way in March. Among those who see an improving economy 65 percent give at least a little credit to President Barack Obama, while 82 percent credit Scott. "The governor needs to make voters believe he is responsible for a better economy. That's the key to his electoral future. He isn't going to get re-elected because he is Mr. Personality. He needs to essentially convince voters, 'You may not like me, but I'm the guy who is making things better,'" Brown said. From June 11 - 16, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,176 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research. For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Charlie Crist the Democrat and Rick Scott the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Crist 47% 13% 83% 45% 43% 51% 43% 73% 40% Scott 37 75 8 33 43 32 43 13 33 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 3 2 2 2 1 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 4 2 2 3 - - DK/NA 12 10 8 15 10 13 8 13 24 North/ Panhd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Crist 42% 48% 42% 39% 57% Scott 46 35 42 50 24 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 3 2 1 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 5 1 - DK/NA 10 12 10 10 15 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Crist 50% 46% 51% 43% 52% 45% 52% 46% Scott 38 37 32 46 39 29 34 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 1 4 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 3 2 6 1 1 DK/NA 8 13 14 6 6 16 11 9 TREND: If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Charlie Crist the Democrat and Rick Scott the Republican, for whom would you vote? Jun 18 Mar 20 2013 2013 Crist 47 50 Scott 37 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 DK/NA 12 12 2. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Bill Nelson the Democrat and Rick Scott the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Nelson 48% 15% 82% 48% 44% 52% 44% 75% 45% Scott 38 77 8 33 43 33 42 15 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 2 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 4 2 2 3 - 1 DK/NA 11 7 9 14 10 11 9 9 19 North/ Panhd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Nelson 45% 50% 44% 31% 58% Scott 42 35 40 53 29 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 3 1 3 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 4 1 1 DK/NA 11 10 11 13 11 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Nelson 51% 47% 51% 48% 53% 48% 53% 47% Scott 38 38 33 42 42 31 34 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 2 3 2 5 1 1 DK/NA 8 12 12 7 2 14 11 8 3. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Nan Rich the Democrat and Rick Scott the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Rich 36% 7% 68% 32% 30% 40% 31% 62% 36% Scott 42 81 12 39 48 37 49 18 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 2 3 3 2 3 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 4 1 DK/NA 18 10 15 23 17 18 15 14 30 North/ Panhd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Rich 29% 35% 31% 28% 49% Scott 50 40 45 56 28 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 4 2 1 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 3 3 2 DK/NA 15 19 19 12 18 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Rich 39% 34% 38% 37% 42% 34% 43% 34% Scott 41 42 37 48 45 34 40 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 3 1 1 4 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 3 2 1 6 1 2 DK/NA 16 18 19 12 11 22 13 16 4. Is your opinion of Rick Scott favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 40% 74% 12% 38% 44% 35% 44% 19% 34% Unfavorable 42 13 69 43 41 43 42 51 37 Hvn't hrd enough 16 12 18 15 12 19 12 29 26 REFUSED 3 2 2 4 3 3 3 2 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Rick Scott favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Jun 18 Mar 20 Dec 19 Feb 02 Aug 19 Jul 30 Jun 09 2013 2013 2012 2011 2010 2010 2010 Favorable 40 33 31 28 28 29 31 Unfavorable 42 46 43 24 40 30 22 Hvn't hrd enough 16 18 24 45 30 38 46 REFUSED 3 3 2 3 2 2 1 5. Is your opinion of Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 48% 27% 67% 49% 44% 51% 47% 64% 40% Unfavorable 31 55 11 30 35 28 36 15 21 Hvn't hrd enough 18 16 18 18 18 18 15 18 36 REFUSED 3 2 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 TREND: Is your opinion of Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? FAVORABLE..... High Low Jun 18 Mar 20 Dec 19 Aug 19 Jul 30 Feb 19 Dec 19 2013 2013 2012 2010 2010 2009 2012 Favorable 48 49 47 53 49 68 47 Unfavorable 31 30 33 33 35 21 33 Hvn't hrd enough 18 20 19 10 13 9 19 REFUSED 3 2 2 4 3 3 2 6. Is your opinion of Nan Rich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 7% 4% 12% 6% 9% 6% 7% 10% 10% Unfavorable 6 8 2 7 7 5 6 1 10 Hvn't hrd enough 84 86 84 83 81 87 86 86 76 REFUSED 2 1 2 3 3 2 1 3 4 TREND: Is your opinion of Nan Rich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Jun 18 Dec 19 2013 2012 Favorable 7 6 Unfavorable 6 4 Hvn't hrd enough 84 90 REFUSED 2 1 7. Is your opinion of Bill Nelson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 41% 23% 59% 42% 40% 42% 44% 42% 30% Unfavorable 23 42 5 24 28 19 28 5 13 Hvn't hrd enough 33 33 34 29 29 37 26 50 52 REFUSED 3 2 2 5 3 3 2 3 5 TREND: Is your opinion of Bill Nelson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Jun 18 Jun 21 May 24 Jan 11 Feb 3 2013 2012 2012 2012 2011 Favorable 41 44 39 41 39 Unfavorable 23 26 28 23 23 Hvn't hrd enough 33 28 31 35 36 REFUSED 3 2 2 1 2 16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Scott is handling his job as Governor? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 43% 72% 17% 44% 51% 36% 47% 16% 45% Disapprove 44 17 70 42 40 48 43 65 32 DK/NA 13 11 12 14 9 16 10 19 23 North/ Panhd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 51% 39% 43% 61% 34% Disapprove 39 51 40 32 50 DK/NA 11 10 17 7 16 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Approve 41% 44% 38% 51% 44% 38% 42% 46% Disapprove 49 42 46 41 52 38 48 44 DK/NA 9 15 16 8 4 24 11 10 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Scott is handling his job as Governor? APPROVE....... High Low Jun 18 Mar 20 Dec 19 Jun 27 Jun 20 Jun 18 May 25 2013 2013 2012 2012 2012 2013 2011 Approve 43 36 36 35 39 43 29 Disapprove 44 49 45 48 49 44 57 DK/NA 13 15 19 17 13 13 14 22. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Florida today; are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Very satisfied 5% 8% 5% 3% 6% 4% 5% 4% 8% Smwht satisfied 48 57 42 47 51 45 49 52 44 Smwht dissatisfied 28 20 32 31 27 30 28 28 26 Very dissatisfied 17 13 20 18 16 19 17 15 22 DK/NA 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 2 - North/ Panhd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Very satisfied 4% 6% 4% 11% 4% Smwht satisfied 48 45 49 57 46 Smwht dissatisfied 31 30 31 17 26 Very dissatisfied 14 17 15 14 24 DK/NA 2 3 1 1 - COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Very satisfied 4% 5% 4% 8% 4% 3% 5% 6% Smwht satisfied 46 48 45 47 53 49 45 49 Smwht dissatisfied 32 27 32 26 27 32 30 26 Very dissatisfied 16 18 19 17 15 13 19 18 DK/NA 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 1 TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Florida today; are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied or very dissatisfied? (*combined High also 63% Sep 2004) VERY+SMWHT.... High Low Jun 18 Mar 20 Dec 19 Jun 20 May 24 Feb 24 Sep 22 2013 2013 2012 2012 2012 2005* 2011 Very satisfied 5 4 6 5 4 15 4 Smwht satisfied 48 46 43 36 39 48 31 Smwht dissatisfied 28 31 33 34 30 22 29 Very dissatisfied 17 16 17 25 25 15 34 DK/NA 1 2 2 1 2 1 2 23. Do you feel that Rick Scott deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Yes/Deserves 35% 63% 11% 35% 42% 29% 38% 17% 37% No/Does not 50 23 75 49 45 54 48 65 42 DK/NA 15 14 14 16 13 17 13 18 21 North/ Panhd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Yes/Deserves 43% 33% 36% 49% 26% No/Does not 39 56 47 34 60 DK/NA 18 11 18 18 14 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Yes/Deserves 37% 35% 32% 44% 38% 31% 34% 38% No/Does not 54 48 50 47 56 43 53 50 DK/NA 9 18 18 9 6 26 12 12 TREND: Do you feel that Rick Scott deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? Jun 18 Mar 20 Dec 19 2013 2013 2012 Yes/Deserves 35 32 30 No/Does not 50 55 52 DK/NA 15 13 18 24. In the last three years, Charlie Crist has changed his party affiliation from Republican to Independent to Democrat. Some people say this is a positive thing because it shows he is a pragmatist who can change with the times and issues. Other people say it is a negative thing because it shows he has no core beliefs. Which comes closest to your view of Charlie Crist? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Positive thing 47% 18% 71% 53% 45% 48% 43% 56% 57% Negative thing 44 77 18 41 47 41 50 29 32 DK/NA 9 5 10 7 7 11 7 16 11 North/ Panhd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Positive thing 41% 50% 38% 50% 57% Negative thing 50 41 52 48 33 DK/NA 10 8 11 2 10 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Positive thing 50% 46% 49% 49% 52% 58% 50% 42% Negative thing 46 43 41 45 45 30 42 51 DK/NA 4 11 10 5 3 13 8 7 TREND: In the last three years, Charlie Crist has changed his party affiliation from Republican to Independent to Democrat. Some people say this is a positive thing because it hows he is a pragmatist who can change with the times and issues. Other people say it is a negative thing because it shows he has no core beliefs. Which comes closest to your view of Charlie Crist? Jun 18 Mar 20 2013 2013 Positive thing 47 50 Negative thing 44 40 DK/NA 9 10 25. Do you think Florida's economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Better 33% 40% 36% 27% 37% 30% 36% 28% 26% Worse 18 19 15 19 12 24 19 15 20 The same 47 40 47 52 50 44 44 53 50 DK/NA 2 1 2 2 2 2 1 4 4 North/ Panhd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Better 31% 32% 31% 50% 33% Worse 22 19 16 8 20 The same 45 47 52 41 45 DK/NA 3 2 1 1 3 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Better 43% 29% 25% 41% 52% 24% 36% 36% Worse 12 21 24 12 8 15 22 17 The same 44 48 49 46 39 58 41 46 DK/NA 2 2 3 - 1 2 2 2 TREND: Do you think Florida's economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same? Jun 18 Dec 19 2013 2012 Better 33 31 Worse 18 21 The same 47 46 DK/NA 2 2 26a. (If economy better q25) How much credit, if any, do you think the - Obama administration should receive for this; a lot of credit, some, a little or none at all? ECONOMY BETTER Q25 Tot Men Wom A lot 21% 21% 21% Some 28 23 34 A little 16 16 16 None at all 35 40 28 DK/NA - - 1 TREND: (If economy better) How much credit, if any, do you think the Obama administration should receive for this; a lot of credit, some, a little or none at all? ECONOMY BETTER Jun 18 Dec 19 2013 2012 A lot 21 27 Some 28 32 A little 16 13 None at all 35 28 DK/NA - 1 26b. (If economy better q25) How much credit, if any, do you think the - Scott administration should receive for this; a lot of credit, some, a little or none at all? ECONOMY BETTER Q25 Tot Men Wom A lot 14% 12% 17% Some 44 46 42 A little 24 28 20 None at all 16 13 19 DK/NA 2 1 3 TREND: (If economy better) How much credit, if any, do you think the Scott administration should receive for this; a lot of credit, some, a little or none at all? ECONOMY BETTER Jun 18 Dec 19 2013 2012 A lot 14 16 Some 44 33 A little 24 20 None at all 16 27 DK/NA 2 4 27a. (If economy worse q25) How much blame, if any, do you think the - Obama administration should receive for this; a lot of blame, some, a little or none at all? (* Subgroup size less than 75, additional caution should be taken when interpreting findings of this group because of the large margin of error) ECONOMY WORSE Q25 Tot Men* Wom A lot 42% 41% 42% Some 18 22 16 A little 17 18 16 None at all 20 17 22 DK/NA 3 1 4 TREND: (If economy worse) How much blame, if any, do you think the Obama administration should receive for this; a lot of blame, some, a little or none at all? ECONOMY WORSE Jun 18 Dec 19 2013 2012 A lot 42 42% Some 18 24 A little 17 14 None at all 20 19 DK/NA 3 1 27b. (If economy worse q25) How much blame, if any, do you think the - Scott administration should receive for this; a lot of blame, some, a little or none at all? (* Subgroup size less than 75, additional caution should be taken when interpreting findings of this group because of the large margin of error) ECONOMY WORSE Q25 Tot Men* Wom A lot 35% 42% 32% Some 37 35 38 A little 18 12 21 None at all 6 10 5 DK/NA 3 1 4 TREND: (If economy worse) How much blame, if any, do you think the Scott administration should receive for this; a lot of blame, some, a little or none at all? ECONOMY WORSE Jun 18 Dec 19 2013 2012 A lot 35 23% Some 37 44 A little 18 15 None at all 6 15 DK/NA 3 2 28. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Scott is handling the state budget? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 35% 63% 15% 34% 42% 30% 40% 16% 30% Disapprove 48 23 70 49 45 50 45 68 43 DK/NA 17 14 15 18 13 20 15 15 27 North/ Panhd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 42% 33% 36% 55% 26% Disapprove 47 52 43 34 55 DK/NA 12 14 21 11 19 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Approve 40% 33% 29% 47% 39% 26% 35% 40% Disapprove 49 48 50 42 54 51 53 44 DK/NA 11 19 22 11 7 23 12 16 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Scott is handling the state budget? APPROVE....... High Low Jun 18 Mar 20 Dec 19 Jun 20 May 24 Jun 20 May 25 2013 2013 2012 2012 2012 2012 2011 Approve 35 34 32 38 37 38 30 Disapprove 48 50 47 48 48 48 59 DK/NA 17 15 20 14 14 14 11 29. Do you think the state budget is fair or unfair to people like you? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Fair 45% 64% 30% 43% 51% 40% 49% 22% 44% Unfair 42 25 57 43 41 44 38 66 44 DK/NA 13 11 13 14 9 16 13 11 13 North/ Panhd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Fair 47% 48% 42% 62% 39% Unfair 42 36 41 31 52 DK/NA 11 15 17 7 9 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Fair 50% 43% 36% 52% 57% 49% 37% 49% Unfair 38 44 50 37 37 42 52 37 DK/NA 12 13 14 12 7 9 11 14 TREND: Do you think the state budget is fair or unfair to people like you? (*new state budget, **High also 45% Dec 2012) FAIR.......... High Low Jun 18 Mar 20 Dec 19 Jun 20 Jan 10 Jun 18 May 25 2013 2013 2012 2012 2012 2013** 2011* Fair 45 40 45 40 39 45 29 Unfair 42 43 39 48 48 42 54 DK/NA 13 18 16 13 14 13 16 Demographic Summary
