December 7, 2004 - Outsiders Top Gov. Bush In '08 Florida Pres. Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Floridians Satisfied With Hurricane Response Two New Yorkers, former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani and U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton, outpoll Gov. Jeb Bush, when Florida voters are asked who they would like to see run for President in 2008, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Gov. Bush tops only Arnold Schwarzenegger in this early look at the '08 presidential race in which the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University poll finds: 48 percent of voters, including 68 percent of Republicans, want Giuliani to run; 45 percent of voters, including 67 percent of Democrats, want Sen. Clinton; 44 percent of voters, including 44 percent of Republicans, want Sen. John McCain; 36 percent of voters, including 60 percent of Democrats, want John Edwards; 35 percent of voters, including 58 percent of Democrats, want Sen. John Kerry; 31 percent of voters, including 53 percent of Republicans, want Jeb Bush; 20 percent of voters, including 25 percent of Republicans, want Schwarzenegger, if the Constitution were amended to allow a foreign-born U.S. citizen to run. "It's not surprising that Florida voters, many of whom come from New York, are looking back home for presidential candidates for the next time around," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Despite the fact both Sen. Clinton and Mayor Giuliani have been involved in government for some time, both are viewed as fresh faces in the presidential arena." "Gov. Bush has made it clear he's not going to run, which probably has dampened enthusiasm for the favorite son," Richards added. Florida voters approve 55 - 34 percent of the job Gov. Bush is doing, and 59 percent are "very satisfied" or "somewhat satisfied" with the way things are going in the state. President George W. Bush gets a split 49 - 48 percent approval rating. "The fact Florida voters are evenly split on President Bush's approval indicates it was as much a case of Kerry losing Florida as Bush winning it," Richards said. "Looking at the 2006 Senate race, Sen. Bill Nelson may have some cause for concern: his approval rating is 46 percent and only 36 percent say they would like to see him re-elected." Hurricane Results More than 75 percent of Florida residents say they are satisfied with the way both the state and federal governments responded to the hurricanes. Of the 38 percent of residents who say they suffered property damage from a hurricane this year, a majority did not file an insurance claim because the damage was too small. Thirty-four percent say they were hit by one hurricane; 46 percent by two, 15 percent by three, and four percent by all four. Of those who did file a claim, most have settled with their insurance company and more than two-thirds are "very satisfied" or "somewhat satisfied" with the way their insurance company handled their claim. From November 30 - December 5, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,197 Florida residents with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. The survey includes 1,039 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and the nation as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jeb Bush is handling his job as Governor? App Dis DK/NA Dec 7, 2004 55 34 10 Sep 23, 2004 62 30 8 Aug 12, 2004 45 44 11 Jun 29, 2004 47 42 12 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? App Dis DK/NA Dec 7, 2004 45 37 18 Sep 23, 2004 51 34 15 Aug 12, 2004 41 42 18 Jun 29, 2004 39 42 18 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator? App Dis DK/NA Dec 7, 2004 46 17 37 Sep 23, 2004 47 19 34 Aug 12, 2004 42 18 40 Jun 29, 2004 48 16 36 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Graham is handling his job as United States Senator? App Dis DK/NA Dec 7, 2004 56 22 22 Sep 23, 2004 59 23 18 Aug 12, 2004 56 21 23 Jun 29, 2004 58 21 21 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? App Dis DK/NA Dec 7, 2004 49 48 3 Sep 23, 2004 50 47 3 Aug 12, 2004 44 54 3 Jun 29, 2004 46 52 2 TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Florida today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? Very Smwht Smwht Very Sat Sat DisSat DisSat DK/NA Dec 7, 2004 16 43 23 16 2 Sep 23, 2004 18 45 23 12 2 Jun 29, 2004 14 46 23 16 1 1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jeb Bush is handling his job as Governor? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 55% 89% 27% 55% 59% 52% Disapprove 34 8 61 32 29 38 DK/NA 10 3 12 14 12 9 2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 45% 69% 27% 38% 46% 44% Disapprove 37 17 54 41 37 36 DK/NA 18 13 19 21 17 20 3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 46% 48% 46% 45% 49% 44% Disapprove 17 18 16 17 19 15 DK/NA 37 34 38 38 32 41 4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Graham is handling his job as United States Senator? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 56% 46% 67% 52% 56% 56% Disapprove 22 30 14 25 27 18 DK/NA 22 24 19 24 17 26 5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 49% 90% 13% 44% 52% 46% Disapprove 48 9 83 53 45 51 DK/NA 3 1 4 3 2 3 6a. (INTRO:6a-6d) Looking ahead to the next presidential campaign, please tell me which, if any, of the following Republicans you would like to see run for president in 2008. What about Jeb Bush? (Would you like him to run for president in 2008, or not?) Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 31% 53% 11% 27% 32% 29% No 67 44 87 69 65 68 DK/NA 3 3 2 4 3 3 6b. (INTRO:6a-6d) What about Rudolph Giuliani? (Would you like him to run for president in 2008, or not?) Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 48% 68% 31% 51% 53% 44% No 43 23 60 44 41 45 DK/NA 9 9 10 5 5 11 6c. (INTRO:6a-6d) What about John McCain? (Would you like him to run for president in 2008, or not?) Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 44% 44% 43% 48% 52% 37% No 45 44 47 42 40 49 DK/NA 11 12 10 10 8 13 6d. (INTRO:6a-6d) What about Arnold Schwarzenegger, if the Constitution were changed to allow foreign-born U.S. (United States) citizens to run? (Would you like him to run for president in 2008, or not?) Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 20% 25% 16% 20% 21% 20% No 75 68 80 75 76 74 DK/NA 5 7 3 5 3 6 7a. (INTRO:7a-7c) Looking ahead to the next presidential campaign, please tell me which, if any, of the following Democrats you would like to see run for president in 2008. What about John Kerry? (Would you like him to run for president in 2008, or not?) Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 35% 12% 58% 32% 31% 38% No 62 84 39 65 65 58 DK/NA 4 4 2 3 4 3 7b. (INTRO:7a-7c) What about Hillary Rodham Clinton? (Would you like her to run for president in 2008, or not?) Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 45% 20% 67% 47% 42% 47% No 52 78 30 50 55 49 DK/NA 4 2 3 3 4 3 7c. (INTRO:7a-7c) What about John Edwards? (Would you like him to run for president in 2008, or not?) Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 36% 15% 60% 29% 33% 39% No 55 76 33 63 60 51 DK/NA 9 8 7 9 7 10 8. Bill Nelson will be up for re-election in 2006. Would you like to see Bill Nelson re-elected Senator, or would you rather see someone else elected Senator? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes/Re-relected 36% 29% 43% 33% 39% 34% No/Someone else 40 41 39 45 41 39 DK/NA 24 30 18 23 20 28 9a. Looking ahead to the 2006 senate election, please tell me which, if any, of the following Republicans you would like to see run for senator in 2006. What about Jeb Bush? (Would you like him to run for senator in 2006, or not?) Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 42% 70% 17% 39% 44% 41% No 56 27 82 58 54 58 DK/NA 2 3 1 2 3 1 9b. (INTRO:9a-9b) What about Katherine Harris? (Would you like her to run for senator in 2006, or not?) Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 33% 45% 26% 29% 34% 31% No 52 38 62 56 54 51 DK/NA 15 17 12 15 12 18 10. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Florida today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Very satisfied 16% 30% 5% 13% 18% 14% Smwht satisfied 43 56 29 44 45 41 Smwht dissatisfied 23 10 35 27 22 25 Very dissatisfied 16 4 28 15 13 19 DK/NA 2 1 2 1 3 1 11. What do you think is the most important problem facing Florida today? Tot Education total 18% Education general 11 Teachers 1 Funding education 5 School choice/Vouchers 1 Economy total 11% Economy general 3 Unemployment/jobs 7 Minimum wage 1 Healthcare Total 8% Healthcare/Costs/ Insurance/HMO's 6 Prescription costs 1 Medicare 1 Immigration 7% Recovering from hurricanes 7% Environment/Pollution 3% Open space/Urban sprawl/ Overdevelopment 3% Overcrowding/Over population 3% Abortion 2% Drugs 2% Politicians/ Campaigns total 2% Politicians/general 1 Political corruption 1 Taxes total 2% Taxes general 1 Property tax 1 Terrorism/Security tot 2% Terrorism general 1 Security/Safety 1 Transportation/DMV tot 2% Highway traffic/ congestion 1 Transportation other 1 War/Iraq 2% Criminal justice system 1% Gas prices 1% Poverty/Homelessness 1% Children's issues 1% Senior issues general 1% Drought/Water problems 1% Other 7 DK/NA 7 12. Would you describe the state of Florida's economy these days as: Excellent, good, not so good, or poor? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Excellent 8% 14% 4% 6% 11% 5% Good 52 69 39 50 58 47 Not so good 27 14 38 32 22 32 Poor 10 2 17 9 6 13 DK/NA 3 2 3 3 2 3 13. During the next 12 months, do you think the economic conditions in Florida will get better, get worse, or stay about the same? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Get better 37% 55% 22% 34% 42% 33% Get worse 16 3 27 17 13 18 Stay the same 44 39 47 47 43 45 DK/NA 3 3 4 2 3 4 14. Would you say that you are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Better off 42% 64% 27% 37% 46% 39% Worse off 34 18 49 36 29 39 SAME(VOL) 22 18 23 25 25 20 DK/NA 1 - 1 2 1 2 15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state government responded to the hurricanes in Florida this year? All Had Property Adults Damage Approve 80% 78% Disapprove 13 18 DK/NA 7 4 16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the federal government responded to the hurricanes in Florida this year? All Had Property Adults Damage Approve 76% 76% Disapprove 16 21 DK/NA 8 3 17. Was your home or property damaged by a hurricane in Florida this year? All Adults Yes 38% No 61 DK/NA 1 18. (If damage q17) How many hurricanes caused damage to your home or property this year? Had Property Damage One 34% Two 46 Three 15 Four 4 DK/NA 1 19. (If damage q17) Did you file an insurance claim? Had Property Damage Yes 43% No 56 DK/NA 1 21. (If 'yes' claim q19) About how much was your claim for damages? Damage Claim filed Less than $1,000 4% $1,000 - $4,999 14 $5,000 - $9,999 13 $10,000 - $24,999 27 $25,000 - $49,999 9 $50,000 - $99,999 3 $100,000 or more 1 DK/NA 28 22. (If 'yes' claim q19) Have you agreed on a settlement with your insurance company yet? Damage Claim filed Yes 58% No 37% DK/NA 5% 23. (If 'yes' claim q19) How satisfied are you with the way your insurance company handled your claim? Very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? Damage Claim filed Very satisfied 37% Smwht satisfied 31 Smwht dissatisfied 11 Very dissatisfied 18 DK/NA 4
