February 24, 2006 - Clinton, Giuliani Lead Presidential Pack In Florida, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Nelson Has 22-Point Lead Over Harris In Senate Race New York Sen. Hillary Clinton and former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani top the list of 2008 presidential candidates, Florida voters say in a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Giuliani, who some have speculated might not run well among the socially conservative southern GOP, is the 2008 presidential choice of 47 percent of Florida Republicans, followed by Arizona Sen. John McCain with 29 percent. No other GOP contender tops 10 percent in this survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University poll. Sen. Hillary Clinton is the leader among Democrats, with 41 percent, followed by Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards at 14 percent each, and Delaware Sen. Joseph Biden at 8 percent. In a general election matchup, Sen. McCain beats Sen. Clinton 53 - 38 percent, while Giuliani would beat the Democrat 50 - 41 percent. "Rank and file Florida Republicans either don't know or don't care about Mayor Giuliani's support for abortion rights and gay rights as they make him the clear presidential choice over John McCain," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Less surprising is Sen. Clinton's 27-point lead over any other candidate when Florida Democrats are asked about their choice for president. Even in Red America Clinton is the apple of Democrats' eye," Brown said. "McCain runs better against Clinton than does Giuliani. She loses among independents by 12 points to Giuliani, but by 26 points to McCain." U.S. Senate Race In Florida's U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson leads U.S. Rep. Katherine Harris, his likely Republican challenger, 53 - 31 percent, similar to his lead in August 31, 2005, and November 15, 2005, Quinnipiac University polls. Republicans back Harris 62 - 22 percent, while Democrats back Nelson 82 - 7 percent and independent voters go with the Democrat 55 - 23 percent. "U.S. Rep. Harris has gained no ground against Sen. Nelson, who has a lukewarm 49 - 20 percent approval rating for the third poll in a row," Brown said. Florida voters disapprove 50 - 46 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing, compared to 61 - 37 percent disapproval November 16, his lowest score ever in Florida. Voters disapprove 54 - 41 percent of the President's handling of the war in Iraq and say 51 - 42 percent that going to war in Iraq was the wrong thing to do. "Although President Bush still doesn't have a net positive job approval among Floridians, his numbers have increased significantly since November," Brown said. From February 15 - 20, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,076 Florida registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. The survey includes 429 Democratic voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percentage points and 443 Republican voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and the nation as a public service and for research. For additional data-www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks 3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 49% 42% 54% 52% 49% 48% Disapprove 20 26 14 19 24 17 DK/NA 32 32 31 29 27 36 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 41% 55% 44% 47% 53% Disapprove 19 17 29 19 15 DK/NA 40 29 27 34 32 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator? (*Also hit 50% on Feb 25, 2005) Highest Lowest Approve Approve Feb 24 Nov 15 Aug 31 Jun 29 Apr 14 Apr 14 Aug 12 2006 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005* 2004 Approve 49 49 49 46 50 50 42 Disapprove 20 18 20 23 17 17 18 DK/NA 32 33 30 31 33 33 40 4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mel Martinez is handling his job as United States Senator? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 46% 66% 32% 40% 47% 45% Disapprove 30 15 41 36 34 26 DK/NA 25 19 27 24 20 29 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 62% 47% 44% 45% 36% Disapprove 19 33 31 19 36 DK/NA 19 20 25 37 29 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mel Martinez is handling his job as United States Senator? Highest Lowest Approve Approve Feb 24 Nov 15 Aug 31 Jun 29 Apr 14 Feb 24 Nov 15 2006 2005 2005 2005 2005 2006 2005 Approve 46 41 45 45 43 46 41 Disapprove 30 29 29 29 29 30 29 DK/NA 25 29 26 26 28 25 29 5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 46% 85% 13% 40% 50% 42% Disapprove 50 12 83 55 47 52 DK/NA 4 3 3 5 3 5 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 57% 48% 46% 48% 37% Disapprove 37 47 51 51 58 DK/NA 6 5 3 1 5 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? Highest Lowest Approve Approve Feb 24 Nov 16 Aug 31 Jun 30 Apr 13 Sep 23 Nov 16 2006 2005 2005 2005 2005 2004 2005 Approve 46 37 42 45 46 50 37 Disapprove 50 61 54 51 51 47 61 DK/NA 4 2 4 4 3 3 2 14. Is your opinion of United States Senator Bill Nelson favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 37% 32% 41% 40% 37% 37% Unfavorable 11 17 6 8 14 7 Mixed 17 19 15 18 17 17 Hvn't hrd enough 34 32 37 32 31 37 REFUSED 2 1 - 2 1 2 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 33% 41% 37% 27% 40% Unfavorable 9 11 17 9 6 Mixed 20 17 16 17 16 Hvn't hrd enough 36 30 30 44 35 REFUSED 2 2 1 2 2 TREND: Is your opinion of United States Senator Bill Nelson favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? Feb 24 Aug 31 2006 2005 Favorable 37 35 Unfavorable 11 8 Mixed 17 24 Hvn't hrd enough 34 31 REFUSED 2 1 15. Is your opinion of Congresswoman Katherine Harris favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about her? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 26% 41% 15% 19% 28% 24% Unfavorable 27 12 42 32 28 27 Mixed 13 17 9 15 13 13 Hvn't hrd enough 32 31 34 30 30 34 REFUSED 1 - - 4 - 2 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Favorable 31% 27% 25% 33% 20% Unfavorable 18 29 27 32 31 Mixed 10 15 15 13 13 Hvn't hrd enough 40 28 32 22 33 REFUSED - 2 - - 3 TREND: Is your opinion of Congresswoman Katherine Harris favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about her? Feb 24 Aug 31 2006 2005 Favorable 26 22 Unfavorable 27 30 Mixed 13 15 Hvn't hrd enough 32 32 REFUSED 1 1 16. If the 2006 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Bill Nelson the Democrat and Katherine Harris the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Nelson 53% 22% 82% 55% 53% 53% Harris 31 62 7 23 34 29 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 1 1 2 1 DK/NA 14 13 9 20 11 17 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Nelson 44% 46% 55% 47% 62% Harris 37 39 28 37 22 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 3 3 - DK/NA 17 13 13 13 15 TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Bill Nelson the Democrat and Katherine Harris the Republican, for whom would you vote? Feb 24 Nov 15 Aug 31 Jun 29 2006 2005 2005 2005 Nelson 53 55 57 50 Harris 31 31 33 38 SMONE ELSE 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 14 12 9 10 17. Who would you most like to see the Democrats nominate for President in 2008 if the candidates were; New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold, former Virginia Governor Mark Warner, Delaware Senator Joseph Biden, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry and former North Carolina Senator John Edwards? Registered Democrats Clinton 41% Feingold 2 Warner 5 Biden 8 Kerry 14 Edwards 14 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 DK/NA 12 18. Who would you most like to see the Republicans nominate for President in 2008 if the candidates were Arizona Senator John McCain, Virginia Senator George Allen, Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist and former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani? Registered Republicans McCain 29% Allen 6 Frist 8 Giuliani 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - DK/NA 9 19. If the election for President were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat and Rudolph Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Clinton 41% 9% 75% 38% 35% 47% Giuliani 50 87 16 50 57 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 4 3 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 2 2 DK/NA 5 2 5 6 3 7 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Clinton 34% 40% 41% 28% 50% Giuliani 57 51 50 64 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 4 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 1 3 1 DK/NA 5 3 5 4 6 20. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Clinton 38% 8% 74% 31% 32% 44% McCain 53 86 20 57 61 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 3 2 1 DK/NA 7 3 5 9 5 9 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Clinton 33% 41% 39% 28% 42% McCain 58 51 52 65 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 1 - 1 DK/NA 6 5 6 6 9 31. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 41% 80% 9% 37% 46% 37% Disapprove 54 16 86 59 51 57 DK/NA 5 4 5 4 4 6 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Approve 52% 47% 39% 42% 31% Disapprove 42 49 54 56 65 DK/NA 6 4 7 2 4 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq? Feb 24 Nov 16 Aug 31 2006 2005 2005 Approve 41 31 39 Disapprove 54 64 55 DK/NA 5 5 6 32. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Right thing 42% 79% 10% 39% 47% 38% Wrong thing 51 16 82 57 50 52 DK/NA 6 5 8 5 3 9 North/ PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE Right thing 51% 45% 43% 43% 34% Wrong thing 39 48 52 53 61 DK/NA 11 6 6 4 5 TREND: Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing? Feb 24 Aug 31 Oct 28 Oct 21 Oct 7 Sep 23 Aug 12 2006 2005 2004 2004 2004 2004 2004 Right thing 42 41 48 48 46 46 45 Wrong thing 51 53 44 45 49 49 49 DK/NA 6 6 8 7 5 5 6
