May 24, 2013 - Hillary Clinton Tops Rubio, Paul In 2016 Iowa Pres Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Know Little About U.S. Senate Candidates PDF format If the 2016 presidential election were today, Iowa voters back former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton over Republican Senators Marco Rubio of Florida or Rand Paul of Kentucky, but Vice President Joseph Biden trails Rand and ties Rubio in the Hawkeye State, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Iowa voters disapprove 50 - 45 percent of the job President Barack Obama is doing, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. And, the 2014 race for Iowa's open U.S. Senate seat at this point features a bunch of candidates who are unknown to most Iowa voters. In an early look at the 2016 White House race, Ms. Clinton would defeat Sen. Rubio of Florida 48 - 37 percent. In a race against Sen. Paul of Kentucky, she would have a very small 46 - 42 percent margin. Vice President Biden gets 39 percent to Rubio's 40 percent and he trails Paul 44 - 39 percent. "The major difference between former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Vice President Joseph Biden is that she runs much better among independent voters, although Sen. Rand Paul runs better among that key group than either Democrat," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "In general Sen. Paul appears to be the better GOP candidate at this point in Iowa. Part of the reason may be the publicity from his recent high-profile visit to the state, but more likely is that he begins with a solid base of support - the folks who voted for his father in the 2008 and 2012 caucuses." In a Clinton-Paul race, she carries Democrats 89 - 4 percent, while he leads 82 - 9 percent among Republicans and 44 - 38 percent among independent voters. Clinton wins women 53 - 34 percent, but loses men 49 - 39 percent. Iowa independent voters back Paul over Biden 45 - 29 percent, while the vice president takes Democrats 80 - 7 percent, but lose Republicans 84 - 6 percent. Paul leads among men 51 - 34 percent and loses women 43 - 37 percent. President Obama, who has carried Iowa in both of his White House campaigns, gets a 53 - 39 percent disapproval rating from independent voters. He gets an overwhelming 83 - 12 percent thumbs up from Democrats and an equally overwhelming 85 - 10 percent thumbs down from Republicans. There is a gender gap as men disapprove of the president 54 - 41 percent while women are divided with 48 percent approving and 45 percent disapproving. "The president's approval numbers may reflect the news media coverage in recent days over the IRS, Benghazi and Justice Department allegations," said Brown. "As will be true nationally, the question is whether his numbers will drop if these matters remain the focus of news media attention." The decision by U.S. Sen. Tom Harkin not to seek re-election, and the decision by many better known candidates not to seek the seat, leaves a group of potential candidates so unknown to voters that more than half don't know enough about any of them to have an opinion. The best known of the bunch is the one Democrat in the race, Congressman Bruce Braley who is viewed favorably by 27 percent and unfavorably by 14 percent while 57 percent don't know enough about him to form an opinion. But Braley is well-known compared to possible Republican contenders. The percentages of Iowa voters who don't know enough about them to form an opinion of Matt Whitaker, Joni Ernst, Matt Schultz, David Young and A.J. Spiker ranges from 81 to 94 percent. "Iowans can look forward to a lot of television ads as all these candidates try to introduce themselves to the folks who have no idea who they are," said Brown. "Braley is clearly better known than the Republicans, but he too is an unknown to a majority of Iowa voters." From May 15 - 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,411 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa and the nation as a public service and for research. For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 45% 10% 83% 39% 41% 48% Disapprove 50 85 12 53 54 45 DK/NA 6 4 5 8 4 7 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Approve 48% 43% 46% 46% 43% 52% 39% 44% 46% Disapprove 48 50 47 51 54 39 56 51 49 DK/NA 4 7 7 3 3 9 5 5 5 7. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Clinton 48% 11% 89% 41% 43% 53% Rubio 37 80 3 36 44 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 1 5 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 2 5 4 3 DK/NA 9 7 5 12 7 11 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Clinton 46% 48% 41% 45% 42% 52% 32% 49% Rubio 46 35 45 38 45 32 53 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 2 2 3 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 4 3 1 4 3 4 2 DK/NA 5 11 10 15 7 11 10 9 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Clinton 48% 48% 51% 49% 42% 51% 45% 48% 48% Rubio 45 35 33 37 52 32 37 39 38 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 3 3 3 1 4 5 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 4 4 2 2 5 5 2 3 DK/NA 5 10 9 9 3 8 8 9 9 8. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Biden 39% 6% 78% 32% 36% 42% Rubio 40 80 7 40 47 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 4 2 3 6 5 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 2 6 3 5 DK/NA 13 9 10 16 9 16 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Biden 38% 39% 33% 35% 35% 41% 25% 39% Rubio 49 37 47 41 48 34 55 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 4 3 3 4 3 1 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 4 3 2 3 4 4 3 DK/NA 9 15 14 20 10 17 15 14 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Biden 39% 39% 41% 45% 32% 44% 38% 38% 39% Rubio 47 37 36 38 54 37 37 42 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 4 5 3 3 5 6 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 4 2 3 3 5 4 4 DK/NA 8 15 14 12 9 11 14 12 14 9. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rand Paul the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Clinton 46% 9% 89% 38% 39% 53% Paul 42 82 4 44 49 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 2 4 3 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 1 4 3 2 DK/NA 7 4 4 10 6 8 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Clinton 47% 45% 40% 46% 38% 53% 30% 49% Paul 43 42 50 40 51 35 58 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 3 2 1 3 2 4 2 DK/NA 5 7 5 11 6 7 5 8 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Clinton 49% 45% 48% 47% 41% 42% 44% 48% 48% Paul 42 41 40 39 53 46 41 42 38 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 3 3 1 2 5 3 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 3 3 1 1 3 1 2 5 DK/NA 5 8 6 9 3 7 8 6 8 10. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Rand Paul the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Biden 39% 6% 80% 29% 34% 43% Paul 44 84 7 45 51 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 2 6 4 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 2 3 6 4 3 DK/NA 11 6 9 14 8 13 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Biden 42% 36% 32% 38% 33% 42% 24% 41% Paul 45 44 52 42 52 38 58 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 2 3 3 4 2 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 4 3 2 5 3 4 3 DK/NA 8 12 10 15 8 13 12 11 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Biden 42% 37% 40% 41% 35% 38% 38% 38% 40% Paul 44 44 42 42 56 45 44 45 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 4 3 2 3 5 3 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 4 2 2 5 1 4 5 DK/NA 8 12 10 12 6 8 13 10 12 11. Is your opinion of Bruce Braley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 27% 13% 41% 28% 30% 24% Unfavorable 14 23 4 14 17 10 Hvn't hrd enough 57 61 52 56 51 62 REFUSED 2 3 2 2 1 4 12. Is your opinion of Matt Whitaker favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 8% 8% 4% 11% 10% 6% Unfavorable 4 2 5 5 6 3 Hvn't hrd enough 86 88 90 83 82 90 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 13. Is your opinion of Joni Ernst favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 5% 4% 5% 5% 6% 3% Unfavorable 3 1 3 4 4 2 Hvn't hrd enough 92 94 91 91 89 94 REFUSED 1 - 1 - 1 1 14. Is your opinion of Matt Schultz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 11% 13% 5% 14% 15% 7% Unfavorable 7 3 11 8 10 5 Hvn't hrd enough 81 84 82 77 74 87 REFUSED 1 - 2 1 - 2 15. Is your opinion of David Young favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 3% 4% 3% 2% 4% 1% Unfavorable 2 1 2 1 2 2 Hvn't hrd enough 94 94 94 96 93 96 REFUSED 1 1 1 - 1 1 16. Is your opinion of AJ Spiker favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 2% 3% 1% 2% 3% 2% Unfavorable 6 4 6 7 9 3 Hvn't hrd enough 91 93 92 89 88 95 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 1 Demographic Summary
