July 15, 2008 - Women, Blacks Give Obama 9 - Point Lead Over McCain, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Men Are Split And Whites Tip To Republican Word format With commanding leads among women and young voters and near unanimous support from black voters, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama has a 50 - 41 percent lead over Arizona Sen. John McCain, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll of likely voters released today. Independent voters split 44 - 44 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Sen. McCain has a slight 47 - 44 percent edge among men voters and a larger 49 - 42 percent lead among white voters. But black voters back Sen. Obama 94 - 1 percent, while women support him 55 - 36 percent. Obama leads 63 - 31 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old and 48 - 44 percent among voters 35 to 54, while voters over 55 split with 45 percent for McCain and 44 percent for Obama. The Democrat gets 44 percent to the Republican's 47 percent in red states, which went Republican by more than 5 percent in 2004, and leads 50 - 39 percent in purple or swing states. "Sen. Barack Obama's national lead is solid - but it's not monolithic," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "His support in the black community is about as close to unanimous as you can get. Politicians say that the only uncertainty will be turnout. Sen. John McCain leads among white voters. "As is usually the case, the outcome probably will be decided in the middle, among the independent voters, who are evenly split at this point." "About one-fifth of those who voted for New York Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries decline - so far, anyway - to come home to their party." By a 55 - 29 percent margin, likely voters nationwide have a favorable opinion of Obama. McCain gets a 50 - 31 percent favorability. A total of 88 percent of American voters say they are "entirely comfortable" or "somewhat comfortable" having a black President, but 9 percent are "somewhat uncomfortable" or "entirely uncomfortable." And 86 percent say Obama's race won't affect their vote. A total of 64 percent of voters say they are "entirely comfortable" or "somewhat comfortable" with a President who is 72 years old, while 34 percent are "somewhat uncomfortable" or "entirely uncomfortable." Because of his age, 20 percent say they are less likely to vote for McCain, while 75 percent say it won't make a difference. The economy is the single most important issue in their vote, 53 percent of American voters say, followed by 16 percent who list the war in Iraq and 11 percent who list health care. Obama leads McCain 53 - 39 percent among those who list the economy, 65 - 27 percent among those who cite the war and 67 - 27 percent among those worried about health care. "We note with a grain of salt that voters tell us they're not prejudiced against Obama because of race, or that only 20 percent are worried about McCain's age," Carroll said. Democrats say 56 - 33 percent that Obama should pick New York Sen. Hillary Clinton as his running mate. But independent voters reject the idea 50 - 35 percent and voters overall reject it 49 - 36 percent. Bush and Iraq Likely voters nationwide disapprove 67 - 26 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing and say 59 - 34 percent that going to war in Iraq was the wrong thing to do. But by a 51 - 43 percent margin, voters support McCain's plan to keep U.S. troops in Iraq without a fixed withdrawal timetable, rather than Obama's plan to begin an immediate withdrawal with an 18-month timetable. "The overall numbers show a big partisan split on the war in Iraq. Almost three-fourths of Republicans think it was the right thing to do. Democratic denunciation is overwhelming," Carroll said. "And by the slimmest of majorities, voters back McCain's plan to keep troops in Iraq as long as it takes." From July 8 -13, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,725 likely voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201. 1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners". LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Obama 50% 10% 84% 44% 44% 55% 42% 94% 56% McCain 41 85 8 44 47 36 49 1 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 4 2 2 2 - 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 7 3 6 8 7 7 7 5 6 IMP ISSUE Q4..................... Illeg War Econ Terr HlthCr Immig Red Blue Purple Obama 65% 53% 7% 67% 17% 44% 57% 50% McCain 27 39 87 27 73 47 35 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 - - 4 3 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 6 6 5 6 5 6 7 8 WHITE.................................. AGE IN YRS....... NoColl College BrnAgn 18-34 35-54 55+ Degree Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath Obama 63% 48% 44% 40% 46% 37% 47% 29% 39% McCain 31 44 45 50 46 54 44 61 54 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 4 1 3 3 2 2 3 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 2 7 9 7 6 7 6 7 6 PresVt2004.. DemPrim2008.. BushJobAppQ11 Bush Kerry Clintn Obama App Dis Obama 15% 81% 66% 89% 12% 68% McCain 79 10 22 7 81 23 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 5 1 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 4 6 7 2 5 7 TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED VOTERS..................................... Jul 15 May 14 Oct 31 Aug 15 Jun 13 May 3 Feb 21 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Obama 44 47 43 43 43 42 43 McCain 37 40 43 39 41 42 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 3 3 3 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 4 3 4 4 2 4 DK/NA 14 8 8 11 10 12 10 1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS....... CHOSE CANDIDATE Q1.. CAND CHOICEQ1 Tot Obama McCain Made up 76% 80% 71% Might change 23 18 28 DK/NA 1 1 1 2. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Favorable 55% 25% 83% 50% 52% 58% 50% 87% 62% Unfavorable 29 57 7 30 33 25 33 1 21 Hvn't hrd enough 13 17 8 17 12 15 14 9 12 REFUSED 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 3. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Favorable 50% 79% 28% 52% 55% 45% 57% 16% 45% Unfavorable 31 10 50 26 30 32 28 48 37 Hvn't hrd enough 15 8 18 18 11 19 12 30 13 REFUSED 4 3 4 3 4 4 3 6 5 4. Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year? (READ OPTIONS) LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Terrorism 7% 18% 2% 5% 9% 6% 9% 3% 4% The war in Iraq 16 13 21 14 16 16 16 16 18 The economy 53 45 55 56 56 50 51 60 55 Illegal immigration 6 10 2 7 7 5 7 1 6 Health care 11 7 13 11 7 15 10 16 11 SOMETHING ELSE (VOL) 3 4 1 5 3 3 3 2 2 DK/NA 4 2 5 3 2 5 4 2 4 5. If you honestly assessed yourself, thinking in general about - An African-American president of the United States, is that something you'd be entirely comfortable with, somewhat comfortable, somewhat uncomfortable or entirely uncomfortable with? LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Entirely Comfortable 71% 64% 76% 71% 70% 72% 70% 76% 75% Smwht Comfortable 17 19 16 17 18 16 17 14 16 Smwht Uncomfortable 6 6 6 4 5 6 6 5 3 Entirely Uncomfortable 3 6 1 3 3 3 3 2 2 DK/NA 4 5 2 4 4 4 4 3 4 6. If you honestly assessed yourself, thinking in general about - Someone entering office as president of the United States at age 72, is that something you'd be entirely comfortable with, somewhat comfortable, somewhat uncomfortable or entirely uncomfortable with? LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Entirely Comfortable 37% 56% 20% 41% 42% 32% 40% 21% 35% Smwht Comfortable 27 32 24 26 28 26 29 14 23 Smwht Uncomfortable 23 7 35 23 20 26 22 29 28 Entirely Uncomfortable 11 2 19 9 7 13 6 32 10 DK/NA 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 5 4 AGE IN YRS....... 18-34 35-54 55+ Entirely Comfortable 31% 39% 38% Smwht Comfortable 26 27 27 Smwht Uncomfortable 29 22 20 Entirely Uncomfortable 13 9 11 DK/NA - 2 3 7. If elected, John McCain would be the first person to become President at age 72- Does that make you more likely to vote for McCain, less likely to vote for McCain, or doesn't it make a difference? LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds More likely 3% 4% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 1% 2% Less likely 20 6 31 21 17 23 18 36 20 Doesn't make diff 75 90 64 76 79 72 78 61 76 DK/NA 2 - 3 1 2 1 1 3 2 AGE IN YRS....... 18-34 35-54 55+ More likely 1% 2% 4% Less likely 21 19 21 Doesn't make diff 77 76 73 DK/NA 1 2 2 8. If elected, Barack Obama would be the first African-American President. Does that make you more likely to vote for Obama, less likely to vote for Obama, or doesn't it make a difference? LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds More likely 7% 1% 14% 4% 5% 9% 4% 30% 9% Less likely 5 7 4 5 5 4 6 2 4 Doesn't make diff 86 91 80 90 87 86 89 65 83 DK/NA 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 4 4 9. Would you like Barack Obama to pick Hillary Clinton to be his vice-presidential running mate or not? LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Yes 36% 9% 56% 35% 29% 42% 31% 57% 38% No 49 71 33 50 54 45 53 33 44 DK/NA 15 20 11 15 17 13 16 9 18 10. If Barack Obama chooses Hillary Clinton to be his vice-presidential running mate, would that make you more likely to vote for Obama, less likely to vote for Obama, or doesn't it make a difference? LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds More likely 19% 2% 31% 18% 14% 23% 17% 27% 18% Less likely 24 46 5 28 28 21 29 4 23 Doesn't make diff 55 51 63 52 56 54 53 68 56 DK/NA 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 2 11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Approve 26% 58% 7% 21% 28% 25% 31% 7% 19% Disapprove 67 30 90 73 66 69 63 89 75 DK/NA 6 12 3 6 6 7 7 4 6 12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job? LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Approve 14% 15% 19% 8% 13% 15% 15% 15% 16% Disapprove 77 76 74 84 80 75 77 76 76 DK/NA 9 9 8 9 7 10 8 10 8 14. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Very satisfied 2% 4% 1% 1% 3% 1% 2% 1% 1% Smwht satisfied 15 30 7 11 16 14 17 5 14 Smwht dissatisfied 40 43 37 44 41 40 41 41 40 Very dissatisfied 42 22 55 44 39 44 39 52 43 DK/NA 1 2 1 - 1 1 1 1 2 15. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing? LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Right thing 34% 71% 11% 32% 41% 29% 39% 11% 29% Wrong thing 59 22 84 60 54 63 55 81 65 DK/NA 7 7 5 8 5 8 6 7 5 16. Regardless of how you intend to vote, what would you prefer the next president do about the war in Iraq - Begin immediately a withdrawal of American troops with a fixed date to have them all out within 18 months OR Keep troops in Iraq until the situation is more stable and then begin to withdraw them without a fixed date for full withdrawal? LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Immediate withdrawal/ fixed date 43% 17% 64% 40% 38% 48% 39% 70% 49% Keep troops/without a fixed date 51 79 30 56 59 45 56 28 43 DK/NA 5 4 6 4 4 7 5 2 8 17. Which best describes your family's financial situation - Getting ahead, falling behind or holding steady? LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds Getting ahead 12% 15% 10% 13% 14% 10% 12% 14% 14% Falling behind 22 12 26 25 18 26 21 29 25 Holding steady 65 71 63 62 67 63 66 57 60 DK/NA 1 2 1 - 1 1 1 - 1 18. As you think about your own financial situation, which of the following economic issues worries you the most right now -- a. Declining retirement fund values b. Declining real estate values c. Rising health care costs d. Rising gasoline prices e. Rising food prices LIKELY VOTERS................................................. Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds a. Retirement funds 10% 10% 10% 9% 9% 10% 10% 9% 10% b. Real estate vals 6 8 7 4 8 5 6 7 7 c. Health care cost 16 11 16 20 15 17 17 12 15 d. Gasoline prices 50 54 47 50 51 49 50 47 50 e. Food prices 12 11 15 11 12 13 12 18 11 DK/NA 6 6 5 5 5 6 5 7 7
