September 18, 2008 - Women, Blacks Give Obama 4-Pt. Lead Over McCain, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; More Voters Say Dem Tax Plan Helps Middle Class, Poor Word format With a 14-point lead among women and a 91-point lead among blacks, Democrat Sen. Barack Obama leads Republican Sen. John McCain 49 - 45 percent among likely voters nationwide, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today. This compares to a 47 - 42 percent Sen. Obama lead in an August 19 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. In this latest survey, 51 percent of voters say Sen. McCain's proposed tax cut will benefit the rich, while 9 percent say it will help the middle class and 1 percent say it will help the poor. Obama's tax cut plan will help the rich 9 percent say, while 33 percent say it will help the middle class and 22 percent say it will help the poor. In the matchup, McCain leads 50 - 43 percent among men, compared to 46 - 41 percent August 19, and 52 - 43 percent among white voters, compared to 48 - 40 percent last month. He also leads 71 - 21 percent among white Evangelical Christians, up from 65 - 25 percent. Obama leads 54 - 40 percent among women, compared to 53 - 39 percent last month, and 93 - 2 percent among black voters. The Democrat leads 57 - 37 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old while McCain inches ahead 49 - 47 percent among voters 35 to 54. Voters over 55 tilt to Obama 47 - 45 percent. Independent voters shift from 45 - 39 percent Democratic to a 46 - 45 percent split. "Sen. Obama is right back where he was before the so-called convention bounces with a four-point lead. The Democratic discombobulation after the selection of Gov. Palin as GOP running mate seems to be steadying. Women, black voters and young people favor Obama. Men, white voters and Evangelical Protestants pick Sen. McCain," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "But bringing Clinton voters aboard remains a problem for Obama. One in four who voted for Sen. Hillary Clinton in the primaries say they're for McCain now," Carroll added. "Obama wins the perception war on taxes. About half think McCain's tax plan would favor the rich. More than one half say Obama's tax plan favors the middle class and the poor." By a 56 - 33 percent margin, American likely voters have a favorable opinion of Obama. McCain gets a 54 - 34 percent favorability. Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin's favorability is 40 - 30 percent, with 28 percent saying they don't know enough to form an opinion. Delaware Sen. Joseph Biden gets a 40 - 23 percent favorability, with 36 percent who say they don't know enough to form an opinion. Seventy-eight percent of voters say they are "entirely comfortable" with an African- American president, while 12 percent are "somewhat comfortable." Only 37 percent of voters are "entirely comfortable" with a 72-year-old president, while 23 percent are "somewhat comfortable." And 77 percent say they are "entirely comfortable" with a woman vice president, with 14 percent who are "somewhat comfortable." The economy is the most important issue in their vote, 47 percent say, as 15 percent list the war in Iraq; 11 percent cite terrorism; 9 percent say energy and 8 percent list health care. The media favors the Obama-Biden Democratic ticket, 34 percent of voters, including 67 percent of Republicans, say. Only 14 percent of all voters, including 23 percent of Democrats, say the media favors the McCain-Palin Republican ticket. But 49 percent of all voters, including 64 percent of Democrats and 29 percent of Republicans, say the media treats both parties equally. "Those complaints against the news media at the Republican Convention are echoed among the rank and file. Two thirds of Republicans think news coverage has tilted toward Obama and Biden," Carroll said. From September 11 -16, Quinnipiac University surveyed 987 likely voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201. 1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners". LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 49% 8% 88% 46% 43% 54% 43% 93% McCain 45 90 8 45 50 40 52 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 1 - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 5 2 4 8 5 5 5 6 IMP ISSUE Q9...................... Energy War Econ Terr HlthCr Policy Red Blue Purple Obama 64% 56% 6% 77% 32% 44% 56% 48% McCain 33 38 92 19 59 47 40 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - - 5 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 2 6 2 4 4 8 4 5 WHITE................................. AGE IN YRS....... NoColl College BrnAgn 18-34 35-54 55+ Degree Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath Obama 57% 47% 47% 37% 54% 38% 47% 21% 51% McCain 37 49 45 56 44 57 47 71 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 4 3 7 6 2 5 5 7 8 PresVt2004.. DemPrim2008.. BushJobAppQ10 Bush Kerry Clintn Obama App Dis Obama 11% 87% 71% 93% 5% 72% McCain 87 10 25 7 91 21 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 2 3 3 - 3 6 TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners". LIKELY VOTERS......... Sep 18 Aug 19 Jul 15 2008 2008 2008 Obama 49 47 50 McCain 45 42 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 5 9 7 1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS......... CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN CAND CHOICE Q1 Tot Obama McCain Made up 86% 86% 86% Might change 14 14 14 DK/NA 1 1 1 1b. (If support Obama q1) Is your vote more for Obama or more against McCain? LIKELY OBAMA VOTERS Q1 Tot Men Wom For Obama 77% 81% 75% Against McCain 17 14 19 DK/NA 6 6 6 1c. (If support McCain q1) Is your vote more for McCain or more against Obama? LIKELY McCAIN VOTERS Q1 Tot Men Wom For McCain 71% 72% 69% Against Obama 24 23 25 DK/NA 5 5 6 2. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 56% 22% 86% 54% 54% 57% 50% 93% Unfavorable 33 69 6 31 35 31 38 - Hvn't hrd enough 9 7 7 14 8 10 10 6 REFUSED 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 - TREND: Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS......... Sep 18 Aug 19 Jul 15 2008 2008 2008 Favorable 56 52 55 Unfavorable 33 30 29 Hvn't hrd enough 9 15 13 REFUSED 2 3 3 3. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 54% 88% 25% 54% 59% 49% 60% 11% Unfavorable 34 8 57 33 32 36 30 74 Hvn't hrd enough 9 3 14 9 6 12 7 16 REFUSED 3 1 5 4 4 3 4 - TREND: Is your opinion of John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS......... Sep 18 Aug 19 Jul 15 2008 2008 2008 Favorable 54 50 50 Unfavorable 34 32 31 Hvn't hrd enough 9 13 15 REFUSED 3 5 4 4. Is your opinion of -- Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 40% 12% 59% 45% 42% 38% 38% 61% Unfavorable 23 46 5 23 30 16 25 4 Hvn't hrd enough 36 40 35 32 26 45 36 34 REFUSED 1 2 1 - 2 - 1 - 5. Is your opinion of -- Sarah Palin favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 40% 74% 11% 42% 43% 38% 45% 8% Unfavorable 30 3 52 33 31 30 27 52 Hvn't hrd enough 28 22 36 25 25 31 27 34 REFUSED 1 1 2 1 1 2 - 5 6. If you honestly assessed yourself, thinking in general about - an African- American president of the United States, is that something you'd be entirely comfortable with, somewhat comfortable, somewhat uncomfortable or entirely uncomfortable with? LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Entirely Comfortable 78% 70% 88% 76% 79% 78% 76% 93% Smwht Comfortable 12 15 7 14 10 12 13 2 Smwht Uncomfortable 4 4 2 5 5 4 5 - Entirely Uncmfrtble 3 8 2 1 4 3 4 - DK/NA 3 3 1 4 3 3 2 4 TREND: If you honestly assessed yourself, thinking in general about an African- American president of the United States, is that something you'd be entirely comfortable with, somewhat comfortable, somewhat uncomfortable or entirely uncomfortable with? LIKELY VOTERS......... Sep 18 Aug 19 Jul 15 2008 2008 2008 Entirely Comfortable 78 72 71 Smwht Comfortable 12 17 17 Smwht Uncomfortable 4 5 6 Entirely Uncmfrtble 3 3 3 DK/NA 3 4 4 7. If you honestly assessed yourself, thinking in general about - someone entering office as president of the United States at age 72, is that something you'd be entirely comfortable with, somewhat comfortable, somewhat uncomfortable or entirely uncomfortable with? LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Entirely Comfortable 37% 63% 15% 37% 42% 33% 41% 16% Smwht Comfortable 23 23 20 26 20 25 25 10 Smwht Uncomfortable 25 10 40 24 25 26 24 30 Entirely Uncmfrtble 13 3 24 11 11 15 9 41 DK/NA 2 1 1 1 2 2 1 3 TREND: If you honestly assessed yourself, thinking in general about someone entering office as president of the United States at age 72, is that something you'd be entirely comfortable with, somewhat comfortable, somewhat uncomfortable or entirely uncomfortable with? LIKELY VOTERS........ Sep 18 Aug 19 Jul 15 2008 2008 2008 Entirely Comfortable 37 37 37 Smwht Comfortable 23 27 27 Smwht Uncomfortable 25 24 23 Entirely Uncmfrtble 13 10 11 DK/NA 2 2 2 8. If you honestly assessed yourself, thinking in general about - a woman vice- president of the United States, is that something you'd be entirely comfortable with, somewhat comfortable, somewhat uncomfortable or entirely uncomfortable with? LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Entirely Comfortable 77% 85% 72% 77% 79% 75% 81% 42% Smwht Comfortable 14 12 16 15 10 17 13 26 Smwht Uncomfortable 4 2 5 3 5 3 3 9 Entirely Uncmfrtble 3 1 5 2 2 3 2 13 DK/NA 2 1 3 3 3 2 2 9 9. Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year? (READ OPTIONS) LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Terrorism 11% 23% 2% 10% 12% 10% 13% 1% The war in Iraq 15 10 21 15 12 18 15 19 The economy 47 40 52 49 47 48 47 50 Illegal immigration 4 5 1 5 4 3 4 1 Energy policy 9 12 6 8 13 5 8 5 Health care 8 5 14 6 5 11 7 20 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 3 3 3 3 4 3 4 2 DK/NA 2 1 2 3 2 3 2 3 TREND: Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year? (READ OPTIONS) na = not asked LIKELY VOTERS......... Sep 18 Aug 19 Jul 15 2008 2008 2008 Terrorism 11 9 7 The war in Iraq 15 16 16 The economy 47 52 53 Illegal immigration 4 6 6 Energy policy 9 na na Health care 8 10 11 SOMETHING ELSE (VOL) 3 3 3 DK/NA 2 4 4 10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 31% 68% 4% 28% 33% 28% 35% 5% Disapprove 65 27 94 67 61 68 61 90 DK/NA 5 5 2 5 6 3 4 6 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? LIKELY VOTERS......... Sep 18 Aug 19 Jul 15 2008 2008 2008 Approve 31 30 26 Disapprove 65 64 67 DK/NA 5 5 6 11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job? LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 16% 12% 22% 15% 14% 18% 15% 24% Disapprove 76 80 68 80 80 72 77 65 DK/NA 8 8 10 5 6 10 8 11 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job? LIKELY VOTERS......... Sep 18 Aug 19 Jul 15 2008 2008 2008 Approve 16 16 14 Disapprove 76 74 77 DK/NA 8 10 9 12. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Very satisfied 2% 3% 1% 2% 3% 1% 2% - Smwht satisfied 22 45 7 18 23 21 25 8 Smwht dissatisfied 37 36 35 40 36 37 37 26 Very dissatisfied 39 14 56 41 37 40 36 66 DK/NA 1 1 - - 1 1 1 - TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? LIKELY VOTERS......... Sep 18 Aug 20 Jul 15 2008 2008 2008 Very satisfied 2 2 2 Smwht satisfied 22 19 15 Smwht dissatisfied 37 41 40 Very dissatisfied 39 38 42 DK/NA 1 1 1 13. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing? LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Right thing 38% 74% 8% 39% 38% 37% 44% 2% Wrong thing 56 20 87 55 56 56 51 93 DK/NA 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 5 TREND: Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing? LIKELY VOTERS......... Sep 18 Aug 20 Jul 15 2008 2008 2008 Right thing 38 35 34 Wrong thing 56 59 59 DK/NA 6 6 7 14. Regardless of how you intend to vote, what would you prefer the next president do about the war in Iraq? A) Begin immediately a withdrawal of American troops, with a fixed date to have them all out within 18 months. OR B) Keep troops in Iraq until the situation is more stable, and then begin to withdraw them, without a fixed date for full withdrawal. LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk A)Begin immediate withdrawal/18 mos 42% 14% 66% 42% 36% 47% 38% 77% B)Stay until stable/ No fixed dates 53 83 29 52 60 47 58 12 DK/NA 5 3 6 6 4 6 4 11 TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, what would you prefer the next president to do about the war in Iraq? A) Begin immediately a withdrawal of American troops with a fixed date to have them all out within 18 months OR B) Keep troops in Iraq until the situation is more stable and then begin to withdraw them without a fixed date for full withdrawal. LIKELY VOTERS......... Sep 18 Aug 20 Jul 15 2008 2008 2008 A) Begin immediate withdrawal/18 mos 42 43 43 B) Stay until stable/ No fixed date 53 51 51 DK/NA 5 6 5 15. Would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days as - Excellent, good, not so good, or poor? LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Excellent 1% - 2% - 1% - - 4% Good 15 31 2 14 17 13 16 5 Not so good 39 51 32 38 40 39 42 21 Poor 45 18 64 48 43 47 41 70 DK/NA - 1 - - - - - - TREND: Would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days as - Excellent, good, not so good, or poor? LIKELY VOTERS. Sep 18 Aug 20 2008 2008 Excellent 1 1 Good 15 12 Not so good 39 44 Poor 45 42 DK/NA - 1 16. Which best describes your family's financial situation - Getting ahead, falling behind or holding steady? LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Getting ahead 11% 15% 9% 7% 13% 8% 11% 11% Falling behind 24 11 28 27 23 24 22 32 Holding steady 65 73 62 65 63 66 66 57 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 - TREND: Which best describes your family's financial situation - Getting ahead, falling behind or holding steady? LIKELY VOTERS......... Sep 18 Aug 20 Jul 15 2008 2008 2008 Getting ahead 11 11 12 Falling behind 24 26 22 Holding steady 65 62 65 DK/NA 1 1 1 17. As you think about your own financial situation, which of the following economic issues worries you the most right now -- A) declining retirement fund values, B) declining real estate values, C) rising health care costs D) rising gasoline prices, or E) rising food prices? LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk A) Retirement funds 14% 16% 14% 11% 14% 13% 14% 16% B) Real estate vals 13 11 11 17 14 12 13 8 C) Health care cost 22 10 32 22 18 26 23 25 D) Gasoline prices 32 45 23 31 33 31 31 38 E) Food prices 15 15 17 13 15 16 15 9 DK/NA 4 3 2 6 6 2 4 5 TREND: As you think about your own financial situation, which of the following economic issues worries you the most right now -- A) Declining retirement fund values B) Declining real estate values C) Rising health care costs D) Rising gasoline prices E) Rising food prices LIKELY VOTERS......... Sep 18 Aug 20 Jul 15 2008 2008 2008 A. Retirement funds 14 11 10 B. Real estate vals 13 11 6 C. Health care cost 22 21 16 D. Gasoline prices 32 34 50 E. Food prices 15 18 12 DK/NA 4 6 6 18. If John McCain is elected President, do you think your taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same? LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Up 31% 7% 50% 30% 25% 36% 25% 72% Down 7 12 5 5 7 7 7 2 Same 57 77 39 62 66 50 64 19 DK/NA 5 4 6 4 2 7 5 7 19. If Barack Obama is elected President, do you think your taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same? LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Up 49% 75% 22% 53% 53% 45% 55% 6% Down 15 4 26 13 16 15 11 54 Same 32 16 47 31 29 34 30 35 DK/NA 4 5 4 3 2 6 5 5 20. Do you think John McCain's proposals on cutting taxes favor the rich, favor the middle class, favor the poor, or treat all people about equally? LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Rich 51% 14% 81% 52% 50% 51% 47% 87% Middle class 9 18 4 7 9 10 10 7 Poor 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 - Treat all equally 28 54 9 27 30 26 29 3 DK/NA 11 13 5 13 10 11 12 3 21. Do you think Barack Obama's proposals on cutting taxes favor the rich, favor the middle class, favor the poor, or treat all people about equally? LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Rich 9% 14% 6% 8% 7% 11% 9% 4% Middle class 33 16 49 31 34 31 32 39 Poor 22 40 9 20 28 17 25 6 Treat all equally 23 15 30 22 18 26 19 43 DK/NA 13 14 6 19 12 14 14 8 22. Do you think it's the government's responsibility to make sure that everyone in the United States has adequate health-care, or don't you think so? LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 58% 31% 82% 57% 49% 67% 53% 82% No 39 65 17 39 48 31 44 16 DK/NA 3 4 1 4 3 3 3 2 23. Do you think the news media coverage of the Presidential campaign has favored - John McCain and Sarah Palin, has favored Barack Obama and Joe Biden or has it treated them about equally? LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk McCain and Palin 14% 2% 23% 15% 14% 14% 11% 33% Obama and Biden 34 67 8 34 40 29 40 2 Treated equally 49 29 64 51 43 54 46 64 DK/NA 3 3 5 1 3 3 3 -
