March 24, 2010 - Tea Party Could Hurt GOP In Congressional Races, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Dems Trail 2-Way Races, But Win If Tea Party Runs Word format Only 13 percent of American voters say they are part of the Tea Party movement, a group that has more women than men; is mainly white and Republican and voted for John McCain, and strongly supports Sarah Palin, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today. While voters say 44 - 39 percent that they will vote for a Republican over a Democratic candidate in this November's Congressional elections, if there is a Tea Party candidate on the ballot, the Democrat would get 36 percent to the Republican's 25 percent, with 15 percent for the Tea Party candidate, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. By a 28 - 23 percent margin, American voters have a favorable opinion of the Tea Party, with 49 percent who say they don't know enough about the group to form an opinion. American voter opinion of the Democratic Party is 48 - 33 unfavorable, with opinion of the Republican Party 42 - 33 percent unfavorable. While 70 percent of all voters are "somewhat dissatisfied" or "very dissatisfied" with the way things are going in America today, 92 percent of Tea Party members are dissatisfied. Government does too many things better left to businesses and individuals, 54 percent of all voters say, while 42 percent say government is not doing enough. Tea Party members say 83 - 15 percent that government is doing too much. "The Tea Party movement is mostly made up of people who consider themselves Republicans," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "They are less educated but more interested in politics than the average Joe and Jane Six-Pack and are not in a traditional sense swing voters." "The Tea Party could be a Republican dream - or a GOP nightmare. Members could be a boon to the GOP if they are energized to support Republican candidates. But if the Tea Party were to run its own candidates for office, any votes its candidate received would to a very great extent be coming from the GOP column," Brown added. Looking at voters who consider themselves part of the Tea Party movement: 74 percent are Republicans or independent voters leaning Republican; 16 percent are Democrats or independent voters leaning Democratic; 5 percent are solidly independent; 45 percent are men; 55 percent are women; 88 percent are white; 77 percent voted for Sen. John McCain in 2008; 15 percent voted for President Barack Obama. A total of 19 percent of American voters trust government to do the right thing "almost all of the time" or "most of the time," compared to only 4 percent of Tea Party members. While only 33 percent of all voters have a favorable opinion of Sarah Palin, 72 percent of Tea Party members have a favorable opinion of her. "Overall, this survey paints a picture of the Tea Party movement that encompasses a broad swath of the American middle class, but clearly at this stage one that is a minority group. In essence their numbers equate to about the size of the African-American electorate overall," said Brown. Only 4 percent of voters making more than $250,000 per year consider themselves part of the Tea Party movement, while percentages among all other age and income groups are close to the 13 percent overall Tea Party affiliation. From March 16 - 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,907 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 2.2 percentage points. The survey includes 253 voters who say they are part of the Tea Party movement, with a margin of error of +/- 6.2 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 2. If the 2010 election for the U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district? TEA PARTY.............. OPINION Q18. Part of Tot Rep Dem Ind Fav UnFav MovementQ30 Republican 44% 90% 4% 45% 81% 14% 82% Democrat 39 2 86 27 7 72 10 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - - 1 - 1 - DK/NA 16 8 9 25 11 13 6 ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME. AGE IN YRS....... 50- 100- Men Wom 18-34 35-54 55+ <50k 100k 250k >250k Republican 45% 43% 38% 48% 43% 38% 47% 53% 48% Democrat 39 39 41 38 40 45 34 33 32 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 - 1 1 - 1 - DK/NA 14 17 18 13 16 14 18 13 19 WHITE............. NoColl Coll BrnAgn Degree Degree Evngl Prot Cath Jew Wht Blk His Republican 44% 44% 68% 60% 54% 17% 52% 8% 30% Democrat 38 39 18 24 29 68 30 79 56 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 2 - 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 - - 1 1 1 - - DK/NA 16 15 12 15 14 14 16 12 13 TREND: If the 2010 election for the U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for - the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district? Mar 24 Jul 2 Jun 4 Apr 29 2010 2009 2009 2009 Republican 44 34 32 34 Democrat 39 42 42 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 16 21 22 22 3. Suppose a Tea Party candidate were running in your district. If the 2010 election for the U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate, the Democratic candidate, or the Tea Party candidate in your district? TEA PARTY.............. OPINION Q18. Part of Tot Rep Dem Ind Fav UnFav MovementQ30 Republican 25% 59% 2% 21% 32% 12% 31% Democrat 36 2 83 22 4 75 9 Tea Party 15 17 6 23 36 1 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 22 22 8 33 27 11 19 ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME. AGE IN YRS....... 50- 100- Men Wom 18-34 35-54 55+ <50k 100k 250k >250k Republican 25% 25% 23% 25% 27% 24% 28% 26% 24% Democrat 35 37 42 32 36 40 35 32 40 Tea Party 18 13 17 19 11 15 15 20 15 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - - 1 - - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - - - 1 - 1 - - DK/NA 21 24 18 24 24 21 21 21 21 WHITE............. NoColl Coll BrnAgn Degree Degree Evngl Prot Cath Jew Wht Blk His Republican 26% 24% 37% 35% 33% 9% 30% 6% 17% Democrat 35 38 13 21 24 76 27 82 55 Tea Party 16 16 23 18 18 3 17 3 15 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 - - 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - 1 1 - - DK/NA 22 22 26 25 25 11 25 8 13 8. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? TEA PARTY.............. OPINION Q18. Part of Tot Rep Dem Ind Fav UnFav MovementQ30 Very satisfied 3% - 8% 2% 1% 5% 1% Smwht satisfied 26 11 48 20 6 44 7 Smwht dissatisfied 29 26 29 29 12 33 12 Very dissatisfied 41 62 14 47 80 17 80 DK/NA 1 - 1 1 - 1 - ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME. AGE IN YRS....... 50- 100- Men Wom 18-34 35-54 55+ <50k 100k 250k >250k Very satisfied 3% 4% 3% 3% 4% 4% 2% 2% 4% Smwht satisfied 26 26 35 24 22 32 22 21 20 Smwht dissatisfied 28 29 32 28 27 29 29 31 24 Very dissatisfied 42 40 29 44 46 34 45 46 49 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 - 3 WHITE............. NoColl Coll BrnAgn Degree Degree Evngl Prot Cath Jew Wht Blk His Very satisfied 3% 4% 2% 2% 3% 7% 2% 8% 3% Smwht satisfied 26 26 13 18 20 34 22 59 23 Smwht dissatisfied 29 26 27 28 27 30 28 21 34 Very dissatisfied 40 43 58 51 49 29 47 9 40 DK/NA 1 1 - 1 1 - 1 2 - TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? VERY+SMWHT SAT High Low Mar 24 Feb 11 Jan 13 Dec 22 Dec 9 Dec 11 Nov 13 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 2001 2008 Very satisfied 3 2 2 2 3 21 2 Smwht satisfied 26 24 25 24 26 47 14 Smwht dissatisfied 29 33 31 34 32 19 38 Very dissatisfied 41 40 41 40 39 10 44 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 3 2 16. Is your opinion of the - Republican Party favorable, unfavorable, or haven't you heard enough about it? TEA PARTY.............. OPINION Q18. Part of Tot Rep Dem Ind Fav UnFav MovementQ30 Favorable 33% 73% 7% 28% 61% 12% 60% Unfavorable 42 12 67 42 21 81 20 Hvn't hrd enough 21 12 23 25 13 5 14 REFUSED 4 4 2 5 5 2 7 ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME. AGE IN YRS....... 50- 100- Men Wom 18-34 35-54 55+ <50k 100k 250k >250k Favorable 33% 34% 31% 35% 31% 29% 38% 40% 25% Unfavorable 46 39 39 41 46 40 44 46 52 Hvn't hrd enough 19 23 27 20 19 28 15 12 16 REFUSED 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 7 WHITE............. NoColl Coll BrnAgn Degree Degree Evngl Prot Cath Jew Wht Blk His Favorable 33% 33% 51% 44% 48% 14% 40% 9% 15% Unfavorable 38 52 25 35 32 53 38 58 55 Hvn't hrd enough 26 10 18 16 16 32 18 34 30 REFUSED 4 4 6 4 5 1 4 - 1 TREND: Is your opinion of the Republican Pary favorable, unfavorable, or haven't you heard enough about it? Mar 24 Nov 19 Oct 8 Jul 2 Apr 29 Apr 1 Nov 12 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 Favorable 33 28 25 25 27 27 36 Unfavorable 42 53 53 52 51 52 52 Hvn't hrd enough 21 16 18 20 17 17 7 REFUSED 4 4 4 3 5 4 5 17. Is your opinion of the - Democratic Party favorable, unfavorable, or haven't you heard enough about it? TEA PARTY.............. OPINION Q18. Part of Tot Rep Dem Ind Fav UnFav MovementQ30 Favorable 33% 6% 70% 22% 7% 63% 8% Unfavorable 48 82 11 55 89 26 82 Hvn't hrd enough 17 10 17 20 3 10 8 REFUSED 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME. AGE IN YRS....... 50- 100- Men Wom 18-34 35-54 55+ <50k 100k 250k >250k Favorable 33% 33% 37% 31% 33% 38% 32% 30% 34% Unfavorable 52 45 37 52 51 38 55 62 51 Hvn't hrd enough 14 20 25 15 13 22 12 6 15 REFUSED 1 2 1 2 3 2 1 1 1 WHITE............. NoColl Coll BrnAgn Degree Degree Evngl Prot Cath Jew Wht Blk His Favorable 31% 38% 20% 23% 27% 57% 28% 60% 41% Unfavorable 46 55 68 63 58 26 56 14 31 Hvn't hrd enough 21 5 11 12 13 18 14 25 28 REFUSED 2 2 1 2 2 - 2 1 - TREND: Is your opinion of the Democratic Party favorable, unfavorable, or haven't you heard enough about it? Mar 24 Nov 19 Oct 8 Jul 2 Apr 29 Apr 1 Nov 12 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 Favorable 33 39 38 42 43 41 55 Unfavorable 48 46 46 42 41 42 35 Hvn't hrd enough 17 13 13 13 13 13 6 REFUSED 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 18. Is your opinion of the - Tea Party movement favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about it? TEA PARTY Tot Rep Dem Ind MemberQ30 Favorable 28% 47% 5% 33% 81% Unfavorable 23 7 40 19 1 Hvn't hrd enough 49 45 54 47 17 REFUSED 1 1 1 - 1 ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME. AGE IN YRS....... 50- 100- Men Wom 18-34 35-54 55+ <50k 100k 250k >250k Favorable 31% 25% 18% 31% 31% 23% 31% 34% 25% Unfavorable 25 21 22 21 26 20 23 30 41 Hvn't hrd enough 44 53 60 47 42 56 45 36 34 REFUSED - 1 - 1 1 1 - - - WHITE............. NoColl Coll BrnAgn Degree Degree Evngl Prot Cath Jew Wht Blk His Favorable 27% 31% 47% 39% 34% 10% 33% 4% 24% Unfavorable 19 33 11 16 20 49 22 27 19 Hvn't hrd enough 53 36 41 44 46 40 44 68 57 REFUSED 1 1 2 1 - 1 1 1 - 24. Is your opinion of - Sarah Palin favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? TEA PARTY.............. OPINION Q18. Part of Tot Rep Dem Ind Fav UnFav MovementQ30 Favorable 33% 60% 10% 34% 70% 4% 72% Unfavorable 51 26 73 49 16 91 14 Hvn't hrd enough 14 12 15 15 13 4 13 REFUSED 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME. AGE IN YRS....... 50- 100- Men Wom 18-34 35-54 55+ <50k 100k 250k >250k Favorable 32% 34% 30% 35% 31% 29% 40% 34% 25% Unfavorable 53 49 56 49 49 51 47 56 72 Hvn't hrd enough 14 15 13 13 17 18 12 8 2 REFUSED 1 2 - 2 2 2 1 2 1 WHITE............. NoColl Coll BrnAgn Degree Degree Evngl Prot Cath Jew Wht Blk His Favorable 34% 31% 55% 46% 40% 7% 39% 10% 28% Unfavorable 46 61 29 38 46 69 47 67 46 Hvn't hrd enough 18 6 15 13 13 22 12 19 25 REFUSED 2 2 1 2 1 1 2 3 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Sarah Palin favorable, unfavorable, or haven't you heard enough about her? Mar 24 Sep 18 2010 2008 Favorable 33 37 Unfavorable 51 30 Hvn't hrd enough 14 31 REFUSED 2 2 25. Which comes closer to your view: A) government should do more to solve problems, or B) government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals? TEA PARTY.............. OPINION Q18. Part of Tot Rep Dem Ind Fav UnFav MovementQ30 A) Shld do more 42% 15% 72% 36% 11% 68% 15% B) Doing too much 54 83 22 59 88 25 83 DK/NA 5 2 6 5 1 7 2 ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME. AGE IN YRS....... 50- 100- Men Wom 18-34 35-54 55+ <50k 100k 250k >250k A) Shld do more 40% 44% 51% 41% 37% 48% 38% 32% 49% B) Doing too much 57 51 48 54 56 47 58 65 47 DK/NA 4 5 1 4 7 5 4 3 4 WHITE............. NoColl Coll BrnAgn Degree Degree Evngl Prot Cath Jew Wht Blk His A) Shld do more 42% 40% 24% 28% 32% 72% 34% 75% 58% B) Doing too much 53 55 72 66 65 26 62 18 42 DK/NA 5 5 4 6 3 2 5 6 - 26. How much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Washington to do what is right - almost all of the time, most of the time, only some of the time, or hardly ever? TEA PARTY.............. OPINION Q18. Part of Tot Rep Dem Ind Fav UnFav MovementQ30 Almost all the time 2% - 5% 2% - 5% - Most of the time 17 9 29 12 3 30 4 Some of the time 50 51 55 46 36 51 36 Hardly ever 30 40 10 40 60 14 58 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME. AGE IN YRS....... 50- 100- Men Wom 18-34 35-54 55+ <50k 100k 250k >250k Almost all the time 2% 2% 3% 2% 1% 3% - 2% 2% Most of the time 15 19 23 15 16 20 17 13 10 Some of the time 48 51 54 50 45 49 51 51 59 Hardly ever 34 28 20 33 35 26 31 33 28 DK/NA 1 1 - - 2 1 - - - WHITE............. NoColl Coll BrnAgn Degree Degree Evngl Prot Cath Jew Wht Blk His Almost all the time 2% 1% - 1% - 1% - 11% 7% Most of the time 17 18 10 12 15 24 15 27 23 Some of the time 49 51 46 49 51 67 51 53 37 Hardly ever 31 29 43 37 33 9 33 8 32 DK/NA 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 - 2 TREND: How much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Washington to do what is right - almost all of the time, most of the time, only some of the time, or hardly ever? Mar 24 Feb 11 2010 2010 Almost all the time 2 2 Most of the time 17 16 Some of the time 50 54 Hardly ever 30 27 DK/NA 1 1 30. Do you consider yourself part of the Tea party movement or not? TEA PARTY... OPINION Q18. Part of Tot Rep Dem Ind Fav UnFav Yes 13% 21% 5% 15% 39% 1% No 80 74 89 78 58 99 DK/NA 6 5 6 8 3 1 ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME. AGE IN YRS....... 50- 100- Men Wom 18-34 35-54 55+ <50k 100k 250k >250k Yes 13% 14% 10% 13% 16% 14% 12% 14% 4% No 82 79 84 82 76 78 85 84 92 DK/NA 5 7 6 5 8 8 3 2 4 WHITE............. NoColl Coll BrnAgn Degree Degree Evngl Prot Cath Jew Wht Blk His Yes 14% 11% 21% 19% 15% 3% 15% 7% 7% No 78 88 73 75 79 95 79 85 88 DK/NA 8 2 7 6 6 2 6 8 4 50a. Some people seem to follow what's going on in government and public affairs most of the time, whether there's an election or not. Others aren't that interested. Would you say you follow what's going on in government and public affairs most of the time, some of the time, only now and then, or hardly at all? TEA PARTY.............. OPINION Q18. Part of Tot Rep Dem Ind Fav UnFav MovementQ30 Most of the time 63% 70% 57% 64% 84% 70% 82% Some of the time 24 18 31 22 12 21 12 Only now and then 9 10 8 10 4 7 6 Hardly at all 4 3 4 4 1 2 - DK/NA - - - - - - - 50b. Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or what? TEA PARTY.............. OPINION Q18. Tot Fav UnFav MemberQ30 Republican 28% 47% 9% 44% Democrat 32 6 56 12 Independent 35 42 29 38 Other 4 4 4 5 DK/NA 2 - 2 - 50c. Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or what? (If Independent) Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican party or the Democratic party? TEA PARTY.............. OPINION Q18. Tot Fav UnFav MemberQ30 Rep(+Ind lean Rep) 44% 81% 14% 74% Dem(+Ind lean Dem) 43 9 74 16 Independent 7 4 5 5 Other 4 4 4 5 DK/NA 2 - 2 - 50d. GENDER TEA PARTY.............. OPINION Q18. Part of Tot Rep Dem Ind Fav UnFav MovementQ30 Men 47% 44% 43% 54% 52% 52% 45% Women 53 56 57 46 48 48 55 50e. (If voted 2008) Did you vote for Barack Obama, or John McCain, or someone else? TEA PARTY.............. OPINION Q18. Part of Tot Rep Dem Ind Fav UnFav MovementQ30 Obama (Democrat) 49% 7% 93% 42% 10% 86% 15% McCain (Republican) 44 89 6 46 84 10 77 Someone else 4 2 1 6 4 2 5 DIDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 3 1 - 7 2 2 3 50f. RACE TEA PARTY.............. OPINION Q18. Part of Part of Tot Rep Dem Ind Fav UnFav MovementQ30 White (non-hisp) 76% 93% 58% 78% 90% 73% 88% Black (non-hisp) 11 2 27 6 2 13 6 Other (non-hisp) 5 2 5 8 3 7 2 Hispanic(all races) 7 3 10 8 6 6 4 50g. AGE TEA PARTY.............. OPINION Q18. Part of Tot Rep Dem Ind Fav UnFav MovementQ30 18-34 26% 23% 27% 26% 17% 25% 21% 35-49 22 27 20 21 25 20 20 50-64 27 26 29 28 31 29 31 65+ 20 20 21 19 21 22 24 DK/NA 4 5 3 5 6 4 4 50h. EDUCATION TEA PARTY.............. OPINION Q18. Part of Tot Rep Dem Ind Fav UnFav MovementQ30 Less than HS grad 11% 8% 16% 9% 10% 7% 17% HS grad and sm coll 61 63 58 63 60 54 61 Coll grad, Bachelor or more 28 29 26 29 30 40 22
