November 22, 2010 - American Voters Could Deny Obama Reelection, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; President Tied With Romney, Huckabee But Leads Palin Word format President Barack Obama does not deserve a second term, American voters say 49 - 43 percent, and he is in a statistical dead heat with possible Republican challengers Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. President Obama leads Sarah Palin 48 - 40 percent. Romney, Huckabee, Palin and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich are bunched together when Republican voters are asked who they prefer for the GOP's 2012 presidential nomination, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey finds. Democratic voters say 64 - 27 percent they do not want anyone to challenge President Obama for their party's nomination in 2012. "The Democratic base remains squarely behind President Barack Obama when it comes to his re-election, but his weakness among independent voters at this point makes his 2012 election prospects uncertain," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "The demographic splits in the electorate when voters are asked whether the president deserves a second term is a roadmap for his re-election strategists on how they need to focus their appeal. Only 39 percent of men, 34 percent of whites, 35 percent of political independents and 38 percent of those over age 35 think he deserves four more years in the Oval Office." In trial heats for 2012, former Massachusetts Gov. Romney receives 45 percent to 44 percent for Obama, while the president gets 46 percent to 44 percent for Mr. Huckabee. Matched against Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, a virtual unknown to most voters, the president leads 45 - 36 percent. "At this point, former Alaska Gov. Palin runs the worst against President Obama. Daniels is essentially a generic Republican because of his anonymity to most voters. Obama only gets 45 percent against him while he gets 48 percent against Ms. Palin," said Brown. "She is very unpopular among independents and although she recently said she thought she could defeat Obama, the data does not now necessarily support that assertion." "Unlike Daniels, who is a political unknown to most Americans, virtually all voters have formed an opinion about Palin and that opinion is not encouraging for her candidacy." Ms. Palin is viewed the most negatively by the American people of the possible Republican candidates in 2012. She is viewed unfavorable by 51 percent of voters and favorably by 36 percent. Among independents, the key swing voting bloc, she has a negative 54 - 33 percent favorability rating. Huckabee gets a 41 - 25 percent favorability rating and Romney gets a 38 - 26 percent score. Former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich gets a negative 30 - 43 percent score. Obama gets a 48 - 48 percent split overall, with a negative 43 - 52 percent among independent voters. In a mythical Republican primary Ms. Palin gets 19 percent, including 25 percent of GOP women, followed by Romney with 18 percent, Huckabee at 17 percent, Gingrich at 15 percent, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty at 6 percent and Daniels, Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour and Sen. John Thune of South Dakota at 2 percent each. "The best thing Obama has going for him when it comes to his re-election may be that at this point the Republicans don't have a candidate who is both nationally well-known and well- liked by a majority of voters," said Brown. From November 8 - 15, Quinnipiac University surveyed 2,424 registered voters nationwide, live by telephone, with a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. (Republicans and Republican Leaners) It is a long way off but I would like to ask you some questions about the 2012 Presidential election. If the 2012 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were: Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Mitch Daniels, Tim Pawlenty, Haley Barbour, and John Thune for whom would you vote? REPUBLICANS.......................................... WHITE............. NoColl Coll BrnAgn Tot Men Wom Degree Degree Evngl Prot Cath Palin 19% 14% 25% 22% 10% 20% 16% 20% Huckabee 17 17 18 17 18 26 22 13 Gingrich 15 18 11 15 15 13 16 16 Romney 18 20 15 14 26 13 14 22 Daniels 2 3 2 2 3 2 1 3 Pawlenty 6 6 5 6 6 6 7 6 Barbour 2 3 1 1 4 2 2 1 Thune 2 2 1 1 3 1 1 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 2 - - 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 17 15 19 19 13 14 20 14 2. (Democrats and Democrat Leaners) It is a long way off but I would like to ask you some questions about the 2012 Presidential election. Would you like to see a candidate other than Barack Obama run for the Democratic nomination for President in 2012 or not? DEMOCRATS...................................... NoColl Coll Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Degree Degree Yes 27% 30% 25% 32% 13% 32% 16% No 64 62 65 59 83 58 76 DK/NA 9 8 10 10 4 10 9 3. Turning to the November 2012 general election for President, if the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were, Barack Obama the Democrat and Sarah Palin the Republican for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Obama 48% 6% 89% 44% 44% 52% 41% 91% 60% Palin 40 85 6 37 44 36 47 1 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 4 3 2 8 5 3 5 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 1 6 4 3 3 1 6 DK/NA 4 3 2 6 3 6 4 4 3 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Lib Mod Con Obama 62% 44% 45% 54% 48% 44% 86% 63% 17% Palin 30 43 42 35 42 46 9 22 72 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 4 4 3 3 4 5 2 5 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 4 4 3 3 3 2 4 3 DK/NA 2 5 4 5 3 2 1 5 4 WHITE............. NoColl Coll BrnAgn Degree Degree Evngl Prot Cath Obama 46% 56% 23% 31% 39% Palin 42 33 67 58 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 4 4 4 5 5 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 2 2 4 DK/NA 5 3 4 4 4 4. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were, Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Obama 44% 3% 86% 35% 40% 48% 37% 87% 60% Romney 45 91 8 46 51 39 53 3 32 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 3 2 1 2 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 4 2 2 2 3 2 DK/NA 7 3 5 12 5 9 7 7 7 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Lib Mod Con Obama 59% 40% 41% 50% 44% 38% 81% 56% 15% Romney 34 48 48 37 49 54 11 32 75 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 3 2 2 - 3 1 1 3 DK/NA 6 7 7 8 6 4 5 9 5 WHITE............. NoColl Coll BrnAgn Degree Degree Evngl Prot Cath Obama 42% 51% 19% 26% 34% Romney 46 42 69 64 53 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 3 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 2 DK/NA 8 4 7 6 9 5. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were, Barack Obama the Democrat and Mike Huckabee the Republican for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Obama 46% 4% 85% 40% 42% 49% 38% 90% 64% Huckabee 44 88 9 47 49 40 52 5 26 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 4 3 1 2 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 - 3 2 1 2 1 2 DK/NA 6 4 5 7 4 8 6 4 7 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Lib Mod Con Obama 60% 41% 43% 51% 44% 42% 84% 59% 16% Huckabee 34 48 46 38 48 52 10 29 76 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 1 2 1 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 2 2 2 1 2 - 2 2 DK/NA 4 6 7 7 5 2 4 8 5 WHITE............. NoColl Coll BrnAgn Degree Degree Evngl Prot Cath Obama 43% 52% 21% 27% 36% Huckabee 46 40 72 66 52 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 1 3 DK/NA 7 5 5 5 7 6. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were, Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitch Daniels the Republican for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Obama 45% 6% 85% 37% 42% 49% 38% 84% 66% Daniels 36 78 5 34 39 32 42 3 22 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 4 3 2 3 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 1 4 3 2 3 1 2 DK/NA 14 12 8 21 13 15 15 10 9 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Lib Mod Con Obama 58% 42% 42% 51% 44% 41% 83% 60% 15% Daniels 30 37 38 30 40 43 8 20 65 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 3 2 2 2 2 1 3 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 3 3 1 3 1 3 3 DK/NA 10 15 15 13 13 12 7 15 15 WHITE............. NoColl Coll BrnAgn Degree Degree Evngl Prot Cath Obama 43% 51% 23% 28% 37% Daniels 37 32 56 52 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 3 3 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 3 3 3 DK/NA 15 13 15 15 16 7. Is your opinion of - Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Favorable 48% 6% 86% 43% 44% 51% 40% 91% 66% Unfavorable 48 91 12 52 53 44 56 9 31 Hvn't hrd enough 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 - 3 REFUSED 2 1 1 3 2 3 3 - - AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Lib Mod Con Favorable 61% 45% 42% 55% 47% 41% 83% 62% 17% Unfavorable 35 51 54 42 49 56 14 32 81 Hvn't hrd enough 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 3 1 REFUSED 2 2 3 2 3 2 1 3 2 WHITE............. NoColl Coll BrnAgn Degree Degree Evngl Prot Cath Favorable 45% 53% 23% 28% 39% Unfavorable 50 43 75 68 58 Hvn't hrd enough 2 1 1 2 1 REFUSED 2 3 1 2 3 TREND: Is your opinion of - Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable, or haven't you heard enough about him? FAVORABLE..... High Low Nov 22 Sep 09 Jul 21 Mar 25 Nov 19 Nov 12 Feb 21 2010 2010 2010 2010 2009 2008 2007 Favorable 48 47 49 47 50 67 44 Unfavorable 48 45 45 47 38 19 14 Hvn't hrd enough 2 5 4 4 9 11 40 REFUSED 2 3 2 1 2 3 1 8. Is your opinion of - Sarah Palin favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Favorable 36% 74% 8% 33% 40% 32% 41% 8% 31% Unfavorable 51 17 78 54 49 53 47 74 56 Hvn't hrd enough 10 7 12 10 8 12 9 16 12 REFUSED 3 3 2 3 2 3 2 3 - TREND: Is your opinion of - Sarah Palin favorable, unfavorable, or haven't you heard enough about her? Nov 22 Sep 09 Jul 21 Mar 24 Sep 18 2010 2010 2010 2010 2008 Favorable 36 31 35 33 37 Unfavorable 51 50 49 51 30 Hvn't hrd enough 10 15 14 14 31 REFUSED 3 3 2 2 2 9. Is your opinion of - Mike Huckabee favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Favorable 41% 69% 15% 45% 47% 35% 46% 17% 28% Unfavorable 25 7 42 21 27 23 23 30 36 Hvn't hrd enough 33 23 41 33 26 40 30 52 35 REFUSED 2 1 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Mike Huckabee favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Nov 22 Oct 31 2010 2007 Favorable 41 15 Unfavorable 25 13 Hvn't hrd enough 33 70 REFUSED 2 2 10. Is your opinion of - Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Favorable 38% 64% 16% 43% 44% 32% 43% 14% 34% Unfavorable 26 9 44 22 27 25 25 34 29 Hvn't hrd enough 35 26 40 33 27 41 31 51 37 REFUSED 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable, or haven't you heard enough about him? Nov 22 Mar 25 Nov 12 Oct 31 Aug 15 Jun 13 May 3 2010 2010 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 Favorable 38 28 34 28 20 18 17 Unfavorable 26 25 20 25 22 20 16 Hvn't hrd enough 35 45 43 45 55 60 65 REFUSED 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 11. Is your opinion of - Newt Gingrich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Favorable 30% 60% 9% 26% 36% 25% 34% 6% 24% Unfavorable 43 18 62 45 44 43 43 53 34 Hvn't hrd enough 25 20 28 26 19 30 21 39 40 REFUSED 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Newt Gingrich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Nov 22 Feb 21 2010 2007 Favorable 30 22 Unfavorable 43 47 Hvn't hrd enough 25 30 REFUSED 2 2 12. Is your opinion of - Tim Pawlenty favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Favorable 13% 25% 4% 14% 18% 9% 14% 4% 11% Unfavorable 10 3 18 9 11 10 9 14 16 Hvn't hrd enough 76 72 77 76 70 81 76 82 72 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 - 1 13. Is your opinion of - John Thune favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Favorable 7% 12% 2% 8% 10% 5% 7% 3% 12% Unfavorable 5 2 9 3 5 5 4 8 9 Hvn't hrd enough 87 85 89 88 85 90 88 88 79 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 14. Is your opinion of - Mitch Daniels favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Favorable 10% 18% 5% 10% 12% 8% 11% 5% 7% Unfavorable 8 2 14 7 9 8 7 21 9 Hvn't hrd enough 81 79 81 83 78 83 82 73 83 REFUSED 1 1 1 - - 1 1 1 1 15. Is your opinion of - Haley Barbour favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Favorable 12% 22% 4% 13% 16% 9% 13% 5% 19% Unfavorable 12 4 19 13 14 10 11 19 13 Hvn't hrd enough 75 73 76 74 69 81 75 75 67 REFUSED 1 1 1 - 1 - 1 1 - 20. Looking ahead to the 2012 election for President, do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Deserves reelection 43% 4% 81% 35% 39% 46% 34% 86% 65% Does not 49 92 13 51 53 45 57 4 29 DK/NA 9 4 6 14 8 9 9 9 5 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Lib Mod Con Deserves reelection 58% 38% 38% 49% 40% 37% 76% 54% 14% Does not 34 53 54 42 51 56 15 34 80 DK/NA 8 9 8 9 9 7 9 11 5 WHITE............. NoColl Coll BrnAgn Degree Degree Evngl Prot Cath Deserves reelection 41% 47% 19% 23% 32% Does not 51 44 75 69 60 DK/NA 9 9 7 8 9 TREND: Looking ahead to the 2012 election for President, do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? Nov 22 Jul 21 Mar 25 2010 2010 2010 Yes/deserves 43 40 40 No/does not 49 48 48 DK/NA 9 12 11 31. Is your opinion of the Republican Party favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about it? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Favorable 40% 85% 9% 33% 42% 37% 46% 5% 29% Unfavorable 45 8 75 48 45 45 40 73 57 Hvn't hrd enough 13 5 14 15 10 15 11 20 13 REFUSED 3 2 1 4 3 3 2 2 2 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Lib Mod Con Favorable 29% 45% 41% 33% 45% 49% 10% 30% 64% Unfavorable 55 42 42 45 49 45 79 53 21 Hvn't hrd enough 15 10 13 19 3 4 9 14 12 REFUSED 1 2 4 2 3 2 2 3 2 WHITE............. NoColl Coll BrnAgn Degree Degree Evngl Prot Cath Favorable 40% 39% 60% 57% 50% Unfavorable 41 55 28 31 35 Hvn't hrd enough 16 4 10 10 12 REFUSED 3 3 2 2 2 TREND: Is your opinion of the Republican Party favorable, unfavorable, or haven't you heard enough about it? (*Low also 25% Jul 2009) FAVORABLE.... High Low Nov 22 Sep 09 Jul 21 Apr 21 Mar 24 Nov 22 Oct 8 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2009* Favorable 40 35 33 33 33 40 25 Unfavorable 45 43 42 47 42 45 53 Hvn't hrd enough 13 19 21 15 21 13 18 REFUSED 3 3 4 4 4 3 4 32. Is your opinion of the Democratic Party favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about it? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Favorable 38% 5% 76% 28% 31% 44% 33% 69% 52% Unfavorable 50 86 14 56 59 41 55 20 39 Hvn't hrd enough 10 7 8 11 7 12 10 10 8 REFUSED 3 2 1 4 3 3 3 1 1 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Lib Mod Con Favorable 48% 35% 35% 43% 41% 30% 71% 48% 13% Unfavorable 40 53 53 41 52 64 21 37 76 Hvn't hrd enough 10 9 9 13 4 5 5 12 10 REFUSED 2 2 3 2 4 1 3 3 1 WHITE............. NoColl Coll BrnAgn Degree Degree Evngl Prot Cath Favorable 37% 41% 20% 25% 31% Unfavorable 49 53 69 65 54 Hvn't hrd enough 12 4 9 8 13 REFUSED 3 2 2 2 2 TREND: Is your opinion of the Democratic Party favorable, unfavorable, or haven't you heard enough about it? FAVORABLE..... High Low Nov 22 Sep 09 Jul 21 Apr 21 Mar 24 Nov 12 Mar 24 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2008 2010 Favorable 38 34 34 32 33 55 33 Unfavorable 50 47 49 52 48 35 48 Hvn't hrd enough 10 15 14 12 17 6 17 REFUSED 3 3 3 3 2 4 2 33. Is your opinion of the Tea Party Movement favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about it? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Favorable 34% 65% 7% 35% 41% 28% 39% 10% 24% Unfavorable 38 11 63 37 38 38 35 57 45 Hvn't hrd enough 26 22 28 26 20 32 25 32 30 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 TREND: Is your opinion of the Tea Party movement favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about it? Nov 17 Sep 09 Jul 21 Apr 21 Mar 24 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 Favorable 34 30 33 32 28 Unfavorable 38 31 31 31 23 Hvn't hrd enough 26 37 35 34 49 REFUSED 1 2 1 2 1 38. Do you consider yourself part of the Tea party movement or not? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Yes 13% 25% 2% 14% 14% 11% 14% 2% 12% No 83 71 94 84 82 84 82 93 87 DK/NA 4 4 4 2 3 5 4 5 1 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Lib Mod Con Yes 8% 15% 14% 13% 12% 13% 2% 4% 26% No 88 83 81 82 86 85 95 91 71 DK/NA 4 2 5 5 1 2 3 5 3 WHITE............. NoColl Coll BrnAgn Degree Degree Evngl Prot Cath Yes 14% 11% 23% 17% 15% No 81 88 71 78 81 DK/NA 5 2 6 5 4 TREND: Do you consider yourself part of the Tea Party movement or not? Nov 22 Sep 09 Jul 21 Apr 21 Mar 24 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 Yes 13 12 12 15 13 No 83 80 81 79 80 DK/NA 4 9 7 6 6
