May 4, 2011 - Ok For Romney, Huckabee But No Way For Palin, Trump, U.S. Voters Tell Quinnipiac University National Poll; No Clear Leader In Gop Presidential Pack Word format By healthy margins, American voters say they would consider or be enthusiastic about backing former governors Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee for president, but 58 percent would never support Sarah Palin or Donald Trump, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. The independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University asked American voters if they are "enthusiastic" about a candidate; would consider voting for the candidate or would never vote for the candidate. Results are: Enthusiastic Would consider voting Would never vote Huckabee 13% 34% 32% Romney 15% 38% 26% Palin 15% 24% 58% Trump 9% 26% 58% Newt Gingrich 9% 29% 42% Ron Paul 10% 25% 27% Michele Bachmann 6% 21% 29% "It is difficult to get a handle on the 2012 Republican race. Many contenders are not well known and many who are known are not liked, making their candidacies problematic. You could call this the 'No Way' measure," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee are in the best shape. Sarah Palin and Donald Trump suffer from the reality that, as our mothers told us, 'You never get a second chance to make a first impression.'" When Republicans and independent voters leaning Republican name their 2012 presidential primary preference, Romney gets 18 percent, with Huckabee and Palin at 15 percent each and Trump at 12 percent. Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and U.S. Rep. Ron Paul have 5 percent each. Two Minnesotans, former Gov. Tim Pawlenty and U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann, get 4 percent each. "This measurement is deceptive, because some who rank high have little upside due to their high negative," said Brown. "Many of the relative unknowns could have large upsides if they can get out their messages, since they will not have to erase a bad first impression. It is always easier to make a good first impression than to change an existing negative one. "Comparing those who say they would never vote for a candidate versus those who say they would consider voting for the candidate and those who are enthusiastic is a good way to view a candidate's growth potential." Budget, Deficit, Unemployment Voters favor cutting unemployment over reducing the deficit 54 - 35 percent, but in another question, 47 percent say reduce unemployment while 46 percent say reduce spending. Half of the 1,408 voters surveyed were told Medicare, Social Security, Medicaid and defense comprise 60 percent of the federal budget; the other half was not told. Yet responses were similar. Voters who were told of the 60 percent figure oppose limits to entitlement growth: 70 - 27 percent against limiting Medicare; 75 - 23 percent among those not told; 72 - 26 percent against limiting Social Security; 72 - 24 percent among those not told; 57 - 40 percent against Medicaid limits, compared to 59 - 38 percent. Voters informed of the 60 percent figure support cuts in defense spending 54 - 43 percent, while voters not told split with 47 percent for defense cuts and 49 percent opposed. "So much for the idea that if the public only understood the budget numbers they would be much more amenable to reductions," said Brown. "Except for defense spending." Voters back 69 - 28 percent raising taxes on households earning $250,000 or more. They say 60 - 34 percent that Medicare should remain as is, rather than giving seniors money to buy private health insurance beginning in 2022. Gradually raising the age of Medicare eligibility from 65 to 67 by 2033 is a good idea voters say 51 - 46 percent. But moving responsibility for Medicaid to the states is a bad idea, voters say 54 - 38 percent. From April 26 - May 1, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,408 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. (Republican & Republican Leaners) It is a long way off but I would like to ask you some questions about the 2012 Presidential election.... If the 2012 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Mitch Daniels, Tim Pawlenty, Ron Paul, Michele Bachmann, Gary Johnson, Rick Santorum, Jon Huntsman, and Donald Trump, for whom would you vote? REPUBLICANS...... Tot Men Wom Palin 15% 11% 20% Huckabee 15 16 13 Gingrich 5 6 5 Romney 18 20 15 Daniels 5 6 4 Pawlenty 4 5 3 Paul 5 6 4 Bachmann 4 6 1 Johnson 1 - 1 Santorum 1 2 - Huntsman 1 1 1 Trump 12 9 15 DK/NA 15 12 19 TREND: (Republicans and Republican Leaners) If the 2012 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Mitch Daniels, Tim Pawlenty, Ron Paul, Michele Bachmann, Gary Johnson, Rick Santorum, Jon Huntsman, and Donald Trump, for whom would you vote? (*na=not asked in survey reported) REPUBLICANS... May 04 Nov 22 2011 2010 Palin 15 19 Huckabee 15 17 Gingrich 5 15 Romney 18 18 Daniels 5 2 Pawlenty 4 6 Bachmann 4 na Johnson 1 na Santorum 1 na Paul 5 na Huntsman 1 na Trump 12 na Barbour na 2 Thune na 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) na 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) na 1 DK/NA 15 17 8a. SPLIT SAMPLE A - Sarah Palin Turning to the November 2012 general election for President I am going to name some candidates who might run for President in 2012, and for each one I read tell me whether you ... A) Would never vote for that candidate B) Would consider voting for that candidate C) Would enthusiastically vote for that candidate D) Haven't heard enough about the candidate to say yet E) If you have never heard of someone I name, please just say so Sarah Palin Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom A) Never 58 24 91 58 54 61 B) Consider 24 42 2 29 29 20 C) Enthusiastically 15 31 3 10 15 15 D) Hvn't hrd enough 2 1 2 2 1 3 E) Never heard of 1 1 1 - - 1 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 1 - 9a. SPLIT SAMPLE A - Mitt Romney Mitt Romney Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom A) Never 26 3 50 25 22 29 B) Consider 38 53 21 39 44 32 C) Enthusiastically 15 32 2 11 17 13 D) Hvn't hrd enough 11 5 11 15 7 14 E) Never heard of 10 6 15 9 10 11 REFUSED 1 1 - - - 1 10a. SPLIT SAMPLE A - Newt Gingrich Newt Gingrich Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom A) Never 42 12 72 42 43 42 B) Consider 29 53 5 31 31 26 C) Enthusiastically 9 19 2 6 12 7 D) Hvn't hrd enough 11 8 13 11 9 13 E) Never heard of 7 7 9 8 5 10 REFUSED 1 1 - 2 - 2 11a. SPLIT SAMPLE A - Michele Bachmann Michele Bachmann Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom A) Never 29 9 50 29 31 27 B) Consider 21 38 3 22 28 14 C) Enthusiastically 6 13 1 4 8 4 D) Hvn't hrd enough 17 18 13 21 13 22 E) Never heard of 27 21 33 23 20 33 REFUSED - - - - - 0 12a. SPLIT SAMPLE A - Gary Johnson Gary Johnson Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom A) Never 9 3 17 8 11 7 B) Consider 9 16 3 7 12 5 C) Enthusiastically 2 1 - 4 2 2 D) Hvn't hrd enough 27 30 25 26 26 28 E) Never heard of 53 50 55 55 49 57 REFUSED - - - - - - 8b. SPLIT SAMPLE B - Jon Huntsman Turning to the November 2012 general election for President I am going to name some candidates who might run for President in 2012, and for each one I read tell me whether you ... A) Would never vote for that candidate B) Would consider voting for that candidate C) Would enthusiastically vote for that candidate D) Haven't heard enough about the candidate to say yet E) If you have never heard of someone I name, please just say so Jon Huntsman Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom A) Never 12 3 20 11 12 12 B) Consider 12 19 10 10 14 11 C) Enthusiastically 2 3 - 4 3 2 D) Hvn't hrd enough 24 32 17 25 24 23 E) Never heard of 49 40 53 51 46 52 REFUSED 1 2 - - 1 - 9b. SPLIT SAMPLE B - Tim Pawlenty Tim Pawlenty Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom A) Never 20 5 36 15 19 20 B) Consider 16 28 7 14 18 14 C) Enthusiastically 6 15 - 4 11 3 D) Hvn't hrd enough 22 23 18 29 23 21 E) Never heard of 35 25 39 37 28 41 REFUSED 1 3 - - 1 1 10b. SPLIT SAMPLE B - Mitch Daniels Mitch Daniels Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom A) Never 17 5 31 12 17 16 B) Consider 15 22 7 20 18 12 C) Enthusiastically 4 10 - 1 6 2 D) Hvn't hrd enough 22 27 18 25 24 20 E) Never heard of 42 34 44 42 33 50 REFUSED 1 2 - - 1 0 11b. SPLIT SAMPLE B - Ron Paul Ron Paul Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom A) Never 27 11 46 25 25 29 B) Consider 25 40 12 27 32 20 C) Enthusiastically 10 17 3 9 15 5 D) Hvn't hrd enough 19 19 17 22 16 20 E) Never heard of 18 10 22 16 10 24 REFUSED 1 3 - - 1 1 12b. SPLIT SAMPLE B - Mike Huckabee Mike Huckabee Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom A) Never 32 10 53 29 31 32 B) Consider 34 51 18 37 37 32 C) Enthusiastically 13 28 - 14 18 9 D) Hvn't hrd enough 11 7 13 12 10 12 E) Never heard of 9 2 15 7 4 14 REFUSED 1 2 - 1 1 1 13b. SPLIT SAMPLE B - Rick Santorum Rick Santorum Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom A) Never 22 3 40 19 23 21 B) Consider 15 31 5 13 19 12 C) Enthusiastically 4 10 1 3 8 2 D) Hvn't hrd enough 23 28 21 24 25 21 E) Never heard of 35 28 34 41 26 44 REFUSED - - - - - 0 14b. SPLIT SAMPLE B - Donald Trump Donald Trump Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom A) Never 58 32 81 59 55 61 B) Consider 26 44 9 28 28 25 C) Enthusiastically 9 17 2 8 9 8 D) Hvn't hrd enough 4 5 4 3 6 3 E) Never heard of 1 - 2 2 1 2 REFUSED 1 2 1 - 2 1 34a. SPLIT SAMPLE A What do you think is more important - Reducing the federal budget deficit or reducing unemployment? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Reducing deficit 35% 52% 20% 35% 38% 31% Reducng unemplymnt 54 40 64 57 51 57 DK/NA 11 8 16 8 11 12 TREND: What do you think is more important, reducing the federal budget deficit or reducing unemployment? May 04 Jan 18 Jul 22 Feb 11 2011 2011 2010 2010 Reducing deficit 35 31 30 23 Reducing unemploy 54 63 64 71 DK/NA 11 6 6 6 34b. SPLIT SAMPLE B What do you think is more important - Reducing federal government spending or reducing unemployment? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Reducing spending 46% 67% 24% 45% 47% 45% Redcing unemplymnt 47 29 69 46 47 48 DK/NA 7 4 7 9 6 7 43a. SPLIT SAMPLE A INTRO TO QUES 43a-46a About sixty percent of the federal budget goes toward defense, social security, medicare and medicaid. Please tell me whether you would support or oppose each of the following in order to reduce the federal budget deficit. Would you support or oppose - cutting the growth of spending on Medicare benefits, which is the government program which pays for health care for the elderly? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Support 27% 42% 16% 21% 33% 23% Oppose 70 54 84 75 65 75 DK/NA 2 4 - 4 2 2 44a. SPLIT SAMPLE A Would you support or oppose - cutting the growth of spending on Social Security benefits? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Support 26% 39% 16% 22% 31% 21% Oppose 72 59 82 76 67 76 DK/NA 2 2 2 2 2 2 45a. SPLIT SAMPLE A Would you support or oppose - cutting the growth of spending on Medicaid benefits, which is the government program which pays for health care for low income people? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Support 40% 59% 24% 36% 48% 33% Oppose 57 37 74 60 49 63 DK/NA 4 4 2 4 3 4 46a. SPLIT SAMPLE A Would you support or oppose - cutting defense spending? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Support 54% 40% 70% 52% 59% 50% Oppose 43 57 28 45 39 46 DK/NA 3 2 3 3 2 4 43b. SPLIT SAMPLE B INTRO TO QUES 43b-46b Please tell me whether you would support or oppose each of the following to in order to reduce the federal budget deficit. Would you support or oppose - cutting the growth of spending on Medicare benefits, which is the government program which pays for health care for the elderly? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Support 23% 32% 11% 28% 33% 13% Oppose 75 65 87 70 66 84 DK/NA 2 3 3 2 1 3 44b. SPLIT SAMPLE B Would you support or oppose - cutting the growth of spending on Social Security benefits? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Support 24% 32% 17% 25% 32% 17% Oppose 72 65 80 73 65 79 DK/NA 3 3 3 3 2 4 45b. SPLIT SAMPLE B Would you support or oppose - cutting the growth of spending on Medicaid benefits, which is the government program which pays for health care for low income people? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Support 38% 50% 20% 48% 42% 33% Oppose 59 44 79 49 55 62 DK/NA 4 5 1 4 3 4 46b. SPLIT SAMPLE B Would you support or oppose - cutting defense spending? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Support 47% 34% 53% 53% 55% 39% Oppose 49 63 39 46 43 53 DK/NA 5 3 8 1 2 8 47. In order to reduce the federal budget deficit do you support or oppose - raising income taxes on households making more than $250,000? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Support 69% 49% 86% 72% 64% 73% Oppose 28 48 12 25 34 23 DK/NA 3 4 2 3 2 4 48. I'm going to read you two statements about the future of the Medicare program. After I read both statements, please tell me which one comes closer to your own view. A) Medicare should remain as it is today, with a defined set of benefits for seniors. OR B) Medicare should be changed so that seniors who join Medicare in 2022 receive a fixed amount of money from the government each year that they can use to shop for their own private health insurance policy. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom A) Remain as is 60% 46% 75% 57% 57% 62% B) Should be changed 34 49 19 36 38 31 DK/NA 6 5 6 7 6 7 49. There is a proposal to gradually increase the age of Medicare eligibility Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Good idea 51% 65% 38% 54% 58% 44% Bad idea 46 31 58 43 39 51 DK/NA 4 4 4 3 3 4 50. There is a proposal to overhaul Medicaid so that more of the responsibility for providing health care for low income people would shift from the federal government to the states. Supporters say this is necessary to control costs. Opponents say that such a change will hurt the poor because states might not provide the same coverage now available. Do you think that this proposal to overhaul Medicaid is a good idea or a bad idea? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Good idea 38% 60% 19% 37% 43% 34% Bad idea 54 29 76 55 52 56 DK/NA 8 11 5 8 6 10 51. To combat rising gasoline prices, some have urged President Obama to release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the government's oil stockpile, set aside for emergencies and shortages. Some say that gasoline prices don't justify tapping the reserve at this time. Others say gas prices are high enough that the reserves should be used. Do you support or oppose releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Support 41% 43% 37% 44% 34% 47% Oppose 54 52 57 54 63 47 DK/NA 5 5 6 2 3 6 TREND: To combat rising gasoline prices, some have urged President Obama to release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the government's oil stockpile set aside for emergencies and shortages. Some say that gasoline prices don't justify tapping the reserve at this time. Others say gas prices are high enough that the reserves should be used. Do you support or oppose releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve? May 04 Mar 31 2011 2011 Support 41 38% Oppose 54 56 DK/NA 5 6 52. How much of a problem has the price of gasoline been for you and your family lately - a very serious problem, a somewhat serious problem, a not too serious problem, or not a problem at all? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Very serious 27% 26% 25% 26% 22% 31% Smwht serious 40 43 35 43 42 38 Not too serious 24 22 28 21 25 22 Not a problem 9 8 11 9 11 7 DK/NA 1 1 1 - - 1 53. As a result of the recent rise in gas prices, have you - cut back significantly on your household spending or not? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 54% 57% 47% 58% 51% 57% No 45 43 52 42 49 42 DK/NA - - - 1 - 1 TREND: As a result of the recent rise in gas prices, have you cut back significantly on your household spending or not? May 04 May 15 Jun 14 Jun 2 2011 2008 2007 2006 Yes 54 57 48 50 No 45 42 51 49 DK/NA - 1 1 1 54. As a result of the recent rise in gas prices, have you - cut back significantly on how much you drive or not? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 60% 64% 53% 64% 54% 66% No 39 35 46 35 46 33 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 TREND: As a result of the recent rise in gas prices, have you cut back significantly on how much you drive or not? May 04 May 15 Jun 14 Jun 2 2011 2008 2007 2006 Yes 60 61 58 56 No 39 37 41 43 DK/NA 1 2 1 1 55. As a result of gas prices, have you - changed your summer vacation plans? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 37% 43% 30% 35% 34% 38% No 60 56 67 60 62 58 DK/NA 4 1 3 5 3 4 56. Who do you blame the most for the recent increase in gasoline prices; Oil producing countries, Oil companies, President Obama, Americans who drive vehicles that use a lot of gasoline or Normal supply and demand pressures? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Oil prodcg countries 21% 24% 21% 20% 20% 22% Oil companies 40 24 55 39 37 43 Obama 15 29 2 14 18 12 American Drivers 2 2 3 2 2 3 Supply and demand 14 14 14 15 16 12 DK/NA 8 8 6 10 8 8 TREND: Who do you blame the most for the recent increase in gasoline prices - oil producing countries, oil companies, President ****, Americans who drive vehicles that use a lot of gasoline or normal supply and demand pressures. (* President Bush) OBAMA BUSH.......... May 04 May 15 Jun 14 2011 2008* 2007* Oil prodcg countries 21 19 11 Oil companies 40 35 43 President XXX 15 23 20 American Drivers 2 3 4 supply and demand 14 14 13 DK/NA 8 6 9 58. Do you think Congress should try to repeal the new health care law, or should they let it stand? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Repeal 44% 80% 12% 44% 50% 39% Let it stand 45 15 77 40 42 47 DK/NA 11 5 11 16 8 14 TREND: Do you think Congress should try to repeal the new health care law, or should they let it stand? May 04 Jan 18 2011 2011 Should repeal it 44 48 Should let it stand 45 43 DK/NA 11 8
