July 13, 2011 - Bachmann Surging In 2012 GOP Race As Romney Is Flat, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Obama Tops All Leading Republican Challengers Word format Minnesota U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann, a relative newcomer in the race for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination, is surging and now trails former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney 25 - 14 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin has 12 percent, followed by Texas Gov. Rick Perry with 10 percent. No other contender is over 6 percent. This compares to a June 8 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, showing Romney with 25 percent, Palin with 15 percent and Bachmann with 6 percent, sixth in a field of 10 candidates in the survey. President Barack Obama tops all leading GOP White House hopefuls, hitting the all- important 50-percent mark against every candidate but Romney: 47 - 41 percent over Romney, unchanged from June 8; 50 - 38 percent over Bachmann, who was not matched against Obama June 8; 53 - 34 percent over Sarah Palin, compared to 53 - 36 percent June 8; 50 - 37 percent over Perry, who was not matched against Obama June 8. "Gov. Mitt Romney remains ahead of the GOP presidential pack as U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann has zoomed into second place," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "With almost a dozen candidates and most of them not very well known, even to GOP activists, Gov. Romney's lead remains. Gov. Rick Perry, who is still a maybe candidate, breaks into double-digits and runs fourth, an indication that he could be a serious contender should he run." "The question about Rep. Bachmann is whether she is the flavor of the month, like Donald Trump was for a while, or does she have staying power? Perhaps more than any of the other GOP contenders, Bachmann's fortunes may depend on whether Governors Palin or Perry get into the race. All three of them are likely to appeal to the GOP's Tea Party constituency." Rounding out the possible Republican presidential field are entrepreneur Herman Cain at 6 percent, Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul at 5 percent, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 5 percent, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty at 3 percent, and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman and U.S. Rep. Thaddeus McCotter of Michigan each at 1 percent or less. If Perry does not run, Romney would lead with 28 percent, followed by Bachmann with 16 percent and Palin with 13 percent. If Perry were to run, but not Palin, Romney would lead Bachmann 28 - 17 percent with Perry remaining at 10 percent. "This would indicate that Romney and Bachmann would benefit most if Perry or Palin do not run," said Brown. In the November matchups, Obama's margin over the Republican hopefuls stems from his huge margins among women voters that swamp the GOP candidates' small edge with men. For instance, matched against Romney, the president carries women 50 - 39 percent, but loses men by only 45 - 44 percent. Against Bachmann, Obama leads 52 - 35 percent among women and 48 - 40 percent among men. The same dynamic is at work when voters are asked if the president deserves a second term. While the overall number is a 47 - 47 percent dead heat, women think he deserves a second term 50 - 43 percent, while men think he does not by 51 - 43 percent. "The gender gap is shaping up as a major factor in the 2012 presidential campaign, bigger perhaps than the 12-point swing in 2008," Brown said. Among independent voters, Romney tops Obama 42 - 40 percent. But Obama leads among independents, a key voting group: 46 - 36 percent over Perry; 43 - 40 percent over Bachmann; 50 - 33 percent over Palin. From July 5 - 11, Quinnipiac University surveyed 2,311 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.0 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Republican primary included 913 voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percent. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1.(Republicans and Republican Leaners) If the 2012 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were: Rick Perry, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman, Herman Cain, and Thaddeus McCotter for whom would you vote? Tot Men Wom Perry 10% 11% 9% Palin 12 10 13 Gingrich 5 5 5 Romney 25 27 23 Pawlenty 3 3 3 Bachmann 14 15 12 Santorum 1 1 2 Paul 5 8 3 Huntsman 1 1 1 Cain 6 7 5 McCotter - - - DK/NA 18 12 25 TREND: (Republicans and Republican Leaners) If the 2012 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were: Rick Perry, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman, Herman Cain, and Thaddeus McCotter for whom would you vote? (*na=not asked in survey reported) REPUBLICANS................... Jul 13 Jun 08 May 04 Nov 22 2011 2011 2011 2010 Palin 12 15 15 19 Huckabee na na 15 17 Gingrich 5 8 5 15 Romney 25 25 18 18 Daniels na na 5 2 Pawlenty 3 5 4 6 Bachmann 14 6 4 na Johnson na - 1 na Santorum 1 4 1 na Paul 5 8 5 na Huntsman 1 1 1 na Trump na na 12 na Barbour na na na 2 Thune na na na 2 Cain 6 9 na na Perry 10 na na na McCotter - na na na SMONE ELSE(VOL) na na na 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) na na na 1 DK/NA 18 20 15 17 1b. (If voting for Perry q1) Who is your second choice? (Recalculated primary vote without Perry using second choice question) WITHOUT PERRY.... Tot Men Wom Palin 13% 11% 14% Gingrich 5 6 5 Romney 28 30 26 Pawlenty 3 4 3 Bachmann 16 18 14 Santorum 1 1 2 Paul 6 8 4 Huntsman 1 2 1 Cain 7 9 5 McCotter - - - DK/NA 18 12 25 1c. (If voting for Palin q1) Who is your second choice? (Recalculated primary vote without Palin using second choice question) WITHOUT PALIN.... Tot Men Wom Perry 10% 11% 9% Gingrich 6 6 5 Romney 28 28 28 Pawlenty 3 3 3 Bachmann 17 18 16 Santorum 1 1 2 Paul 6 9 3 Huntsman 1 1 1 Cain 6 8 5 McCotter - - - DK/NA 22 15 28 2. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were - Barack Obama the Democrat and Rick Perry the Republican for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 50% 8% 88% 46% 47% 53% 42% 91% Perry 37 80 5 36 41 33 44 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 3 3 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 3 1 2 2 - DK/NA 10 10 6 12 8 11 10 5 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Lib Mod Con Obama 62% 46% 48% 54% 49% 50% 82% 61% 18% Perry 27 40 39 32 42 39 11 24 69 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 2 3 2 1 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 2 DK/NA 9 9 9 10 6 8 5 11 9 EDUCATION.... WHITE............. Union NoColl Coll BrnAgn HsHlds Degree Degree Evngl Prot Cath Obama 57% 49% 53% 27% 33% 42% Perry 30 38 35 60 53 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 2 2 2 2 DK/NA 9 10 9 11 9 12 3. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were - Barack Obama the Democrat and Michele Bachmann the Republican for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 50% 10% 88% 43% 48% 52% 43% 91% Bachmann 38 80 6 40 40 35 45 3 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 1 4 3 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 1 5 3 2 3 1 DK/NA 7 6 5 8 6 8 8 3 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Lib Mod Con Obama 60% 47% 49% 52% 51% 51% 85% 60% 18% Bachmann 29 41 41 34 41 40 9 27 69 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 1 3 2 2 1 3 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 2 2 3 2 1 3 3 DK/NA 6 7 7 8 3 5 3 8 7 EDUCATION.... WHITE............. Union NoColl Coll BrnAgn HsHlds Degree Degree Evngl Prot Cath Obama 58% 48% 55% 26% 33% 44% Bachmann 33 39 34 60 53 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 2 2 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 3 2 3 3 3 DK/NA 5 7 7 8 8 7 4. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were - Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 47% 7% 86% 40% 44% 50% 39% 90% Romney 41 86 8 42 45 39 49 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 4 3 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 4 2 1 2 1 DK/NA 7 5 5 10 6 8 8 4 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Lib Mod Con Obama 59% 43% 45% 51% 46% 46% 84% 55% 17% Romney 34 45 44 36 47 46 10 34 72 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 3 DK/NA 5 6 8 8 4 5 4 8 7 EDUCATION.... WHITE............. Union NoColl Coll BrnAgn HsHlds Degree Degree Evngl Prot Cath Obama 54% 46% 50% 23% 30% 38% Romney 37 42 40 67 58 50 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 1 2 2 1 DK/NA 5 7 6 6 7 9 TREND: If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were, Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican for whom would you vote? Jul 13 Jun 08 Nov 22 2011 2011 2010 Obama 47 47 44 Romney 41 41 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 DK/NA 7 6 7 5. If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were - Barack Obama the Democrat and Sarah Palin the Republican for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 53% 13% 88% 50% 50% 56% 47% 88% Palin 34 73 5 33 37 31 40 5 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 4 1 4 3 3 3 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 5 1 6 4 3 4 - DK/NA 6 5 5 7 6 7 6 5 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Lib Mod Con Obama 64% 50% 51% 55% 52% 57% 85% 66% 21% Palin 26 37 36 32 39 30 10 21 64 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 2 2 3 3 - 4 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 4 5 3 4 5 2 4 5 DK/NA 4 6 6 7 2 5 3 6 7 EDUCATION.... WHITE............. Union NoColl Coll BrnAgn HsHlds Degree Degree Evngl Prot Cath Obama 60% 50% 59% 28% 36% 50% Palin 30 36 29 57 50 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 3 3 3 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 4 5 4 4 DK/NA 4 7 5 7 8 5 TREND: If the 2012 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were, Barack Obama the Democrat and Sarah Palin the Republican for whom would you vote? Jul 13 Jun 08 Nov 22 2011 2011 2010 Obama 53 53 48 Palin 34 36 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 3 DK/NA 6 4 4 9. Looking ahead to the 2012 election for President... Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes/deserves 47% 9% 84% 38% 43% 50% 39% 86% No/does not 47 87 11 51 51 43 54 11 DK/NA 7 4 5 11 7 7 7 3 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. POL PHIL......... 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Lib Mod Con Yes/deserves 57% 44% 45% 49% 47% 45% 82% 55% 17% No/does not 37 50 47 44 46 51 15 36 79 DK/NA 5 6 8 6 7 4 3 9 5 EDUCATION.... WHITE............. Union NoColl Coll BrnAgn HsHlds Degree Degree Evngl Prot Cath Yes/deserves 52% 45% 49% 24% 31% 39% No/does not 41 48 45 69 62 53 DK/NA 7 7 6 7 6 8 TREND: Looking ahead to the 2012 election for President, do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? (*Low also 40% Mar 2010) BIN LADEN DEATH YES DESERVES... Post Pre High Low Jul 13 Jun 08 May 05 May 05 Mar 30 Jul 13 Jul 21 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2010* Yes/deserves 47 46 46 45 41 47 40 No/does not 47 48 42 48 50 47 48 DK/NA 7 6 11 6 9 7 12 Demographic Summary
