May 31, 2013 - American Voters Like Clinton Over Paul, Jeb Bush, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Congress Won't Fix Immigration, Voters Say 3-1 PDF format In an early look at the 2016 presidential campaign, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky 49 - 41 percent and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush 48 - 40 percent, but Vice President Joseph Biden trails Bush 44 - 38 percent and falls behind Paul 43 - 39 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Ms. Clinton gets a 52 - 40 percent favorability rating, down from an all-time high 61 - 34 percent in a February 8 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. Favorability ratings for other possible 2016 presidential contenders are: Biden: Negative 37 - 44 percent; Paul: Positive 32 - 24 percent, with 42 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion; Bush: 29 - 29 percent, with 42 percent who haven't formed an opinion. Looking at immigration, 54 percent of American voters support a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants, while 12 percent say these immigrants can stay but not become citizens and 29 percent say they should be deported. Those numbers are virtually identical to the results in Quinnipiac University's May 2 survey, but both represent a drop from April, before the Boston bombing, when 59 percent backed a path to citizenship. Voters say 71 - 24 percent, however, that Democrats and Republicans in Congress will not be able to work together to achieve immigration reform. "Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton remains the queen of the 2016 hill at this point, but the wide gap between her and some of the leading Republican contenders on favorability may be closing, as her overall favorability has taken a hit," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Her score is down substantially from her all-time high score in February. The drop in her favorability is substantial among men, Republicans and independent voters. One reason for her drop may be that 48 percent of voters blame her either a little or a lot for the death of the American ambassador in Benghazi," Brown added. In the hypothetical race between Clinton and Jeb Bush, she carries Democrats 92 - 3 percent, but loses Republicans 82 - 8 percent and splits independent voters 42 - 43 percent. She wins women 55 - 35 percent, but loses men 45 - 40 percent. Clinton gets a 91 - 4 percent favorability among Democrats and a 46 - 42 percent favorability from independent voters, with a negative 18 - 77 percent favorability from Republicans. Women are favorable 59 - 32 percent, while men are negative 44 - 50 percent. In February, she was 91 - 5 percent favorable among Democrats, negative 27 - 68 percent among Republicans and 59 - 35 percent positive among independents. She was 53 - 42 favorable among men and 68 - 27 percent favorable among women. "If Ms. Clinton chooses not to run in 2016, the potential Democratic field could include a somewhat unpopular vice president and a number of new faces who are unknown to the vast majority of Americans," said Brown. "The potential Republican candidates include many unknowns also. Some of them, however, lead the incumbent vice president and outscore him when it comes to overall voter favorability." One thing voters of all parties agree upon is that Congress will not be able to pass an immigration reform bill: 78 percent of Republicans, 61 percent of Democrats and 76 percent of independent voters say Democrats and Republicans on Capitol Hill won't be able to agree. "There isn't a lot of confidence outside the Beltway in the ability of those in Congress to play nice and be productive," said Brown. From May 22 - 28, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,419 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 5. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Jeb Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Clinton 48% 8% 92% 42% 40% 55% 40% 88% 56% Bush 40 82 3 43 45 35 47 8 32 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 - 4 5 1 3 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 - 4 3 3 3 - 4 DK/NA 7 5 5 7 7 7 7 3 7 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Mltry Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No HsHld Clinton 49% 35% 30% 42% 30% 48% 20% 39% 37% Bush 41 50 58 45 55 40 67 47 50 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 3 1 5 1 4 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 DK/NA 6 8 6 8 7 7 6 8 8 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Clinton 52% 47% 53% 44% 43% 51% 49% 49% 43% Bush 37 40 36 43 43 33 37 40 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 2 3 3 6 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 2 3 5 2 5 3 2 DK/NA 6 7 6 7 7 9 7 6 6 6. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rand Paul the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Clinton 49% 10% 92% 41% 40% 57% 41% 86% 57% Paul 41 78 3 45 49 33 48 7 29 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 - 4 2 2 2 3 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 4 3 2 2 2 6 DK/NA 6 7 4 7 7 6 7 2 5 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Mltry Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No HsHld Clinton 50% 36% 31% 44% 30% 51% 21% 41% 39% Paul 40 52 58 45 58 39 68 46 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 3 2 DK/NA 5 8 7 7 8 7 7 8 7 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Clinton 54% 47% 53% 46% 44% 51% 51% 49% 43% Paul 36 43 36 44 49 35 41 41 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 3 1 1 6 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 2 3 2 - 2 3 3 DK/NA 5 7 6 6 3 7 5 5 8 7. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Jeb Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Biden 38% 3% 84% 26% 33% 43% 31% 80% 38% Bush 44 84 6 50 49 39 51 10 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 4 3 1 6 5 3 4 1 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 2 4 6 5 5 5 5 4 DK/NA 9 7 4 12 7 10 9 5 8 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Mltry Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No HsHld Biden 38% 27% 21% 34% 24% 37% 12% 32% 30% Bush 48 53 61 51 59 45 70 51 51 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 5 3 4 2 5 3 4 3 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 6 4 3 5 4 4 4 4 DK/NA 6 11 9 11 8 10 10 11 11 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Biden 41% 37% 42% 36% 36% 41% 37% 39% 36% Bush 43 44 41 48 48 42 41 44 50 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 5 3 4 4 4 5 6 4 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 5 5 5 6 3 7 5 4 DK/NA 6 10 9 7 6 9 9 9 9 8. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Rand Paul the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Biden 39% 4% 86% 27% 35% 43% 31% 82% 53% Paul 43 80 5 50 49 38 51 8 33 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 1 5 4 3 3 1 5 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 2 5 3 4 3 - 3 DK/NA 11 10 6 13 9 13 11 9 6 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Mltry Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No HsHld Biden 39% 27% 22% 37% 25% 36% 14% 32% 33% Paul 45 53 59 48 59 44 68 49 49 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 4 3 4 3 4 3 4 2 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 3 5 4 3 2 4 3 DK/NA 7 13 12 7 9 13 12 13 11 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Biden 43% 38% 44% 38% 35% 45% 35% 42% 36% Paul 41 44 38 47 52 38 45 44 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 5 3 4 2 2 3 4 3 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 3 4 4 3 2 3 4 DK/NA 7 13 11 9 6 11 13 8 14 9. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 52% 18% 91% 46% 44% 59% 46% 87% 59% Unfavorable 40 77 4 42 50 32 46 5 33 Hvn't hrd enough 7 4 4 10 5 8 7 6 9 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 - HEARD OR READ ABOUT BENGHAZI Q30 Favorable 51% Unfavorable 43 Hvn't hrd enough 5 REFUSED 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? FAVORABLE..... High Low May 31 Feb 08 May 14 Oct 31 Aug 15 Feb 08 May 03 2013 2013 2008 2007 2007 2013 2007 Favorable 52 61 47 46 48 61 44 Unfavorable 40 34 44 46 43 34 46 Hvn't hrd enough 7 4 7 6 6 4 7 REFUSED 1 1 2 2 3 1 3 10. Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 37% 9% 72% 27% 34% 39% 31% 71% 38% Unfavorable 44 74 9 51 51 38 52 8 31 Hvn't hrd enough 19 15 18 21 14 23 17 21 30 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 - 1 1 - - TREND: Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? May 31 Feb 08 Nov 12 2013 2013 2008 Favorable 37 46 50 Unfavorable 44 41 23 Hvn't hrd enough 19 11 25 REFUSED 1 2 2 11. Is your opinion of Rand Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 32% 56% 6% 37% 40% 26% 37% 7% 23% Unfavorable 24 6 44 23 25 24 22 36 25 Hvn't hrd enough 42 37 49 39 34 50 40 56 49 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 12. Is your opinion of Jeb Bush favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 29% 49% 10% 32% 35% 24% 30% 16% 33% Unfavorable 29 8 48 26 28 29 26 40 27 Hvn't hrd enough 42 43 41 40 36 46 43 44 40 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 1 - TREND: Is your opinion of Jeb Bush favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? May 31 Feb 08 2013 2013 Favorable 29 25 Unfavorable 29 29 Hvn't hrd enough 42 45 REFUSED 1 2 27. Which comes closest to your view about illegal immigrants who are currently living in the United States? A) They should be allowed to stay in the United States and to eventually apply for US citizenship. B) They should be allowed to remain in the United States, but not be allowed to apply for U.S. citizenship. C) They should be required to leave the U.S. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp A) Stay/Citizenship 54% 39% 72% 52% 51% 56% 50% 74% 60% B) Stay/Not citizen 12 15 7 13 14 10 11 8 25 C) Not stay 29 40 17 31 31 28 34 15 9 DK/NA 5 7 4 4 4 6 5 3 6 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Mltry Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No HsHld A) Stay/Citizenship 64% 42% 46% 44% 46% 53% 44% 47% 47% B) Stay/Not citizen 13 11 10 15 13 10 10 13 12 C) Not stay 20 41 38 36 38 30 40 34 34 DK/NA 3 6 6 5 3 6 5 6 7 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ A) Stay/Citizenship 65% 49% 52% 54% 58% 53% 54% 53% 54% B) Stay/Not citizen 13 11 11 13 14 12 14 11 10 C) Not stay 19 34 31 30 25 33 28 30 27 DK/NA 4 6 6 3 4 2 3 6 8 TREND: Which comes closest to your view about illegal immigrants who are currently living in the United States? A) They should be allowed to stay in the United States and to eventually apply for US citizenship. B) They should be allowed to remain in the United States, but not be allowed to apply for U.S. citizenship. C) They should be required to leave the U.S. May 31 May 02 Apr 04 Feb 07 Dec 05 2013 2013 2013 2013 2012 A)Stay/Citizenship 54 52 59 56 57 B)Stay/Not citizen 12 11 11 10 11 C)Not stay 29 30 25 30 26 DK/NA 5 6 5 4 5 28. Do you think Republicans and Democrats in Congress will be able to work together to pass comprehensive immigration reform this year or not? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Yes 24% 17% 33% 21% 24% 23% 20% 39% 35% No 71 78 61 76 72 70 74 53 65 DK/NA 5 5 7 4 4 6 6 8 - WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Mltry Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No HsHld Yes 27% 16% 19% 22% 20% 20% 19% 20% 20% No 69 77 75 72 76 73 76 74 75 DK/NA 4 6 5 6 4 7 5 7 5 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Yes 26% 22% 23% 23% 24% 26% 21% 24% 23% No 71 72 69 75 73 71 75 71 68 DK/NA 4 6 7 2 2 3 4 5 8 29. If a candidate for Congress supports a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants, would that make you more likely to vote for that candidate, less likely to vote for that candidate, or wouldn't it make a difference? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp More likely 26% 15% 38% 26% 27% 26% 24% 30% 44% Less likely 24 36 12 25 26 23 28 11 15 No difference 44 42 46 45 43 46 43 57 39 DK/NA 5 7 4 4 5 6 6 3 2 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Mltry Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No HsHld More likely 36% 17% 19% 24% 23% 24% 15% 23% 19% Less likely 19 32 32 31 30 26 39 26 28 No difference 41 44 41 40 43 43 39 45 48 DK/NA 4 7 8 5 4 7 6 6 4 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS.............. Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ More likely 37% 21% 23% 27% 36% 35% 32% 24% 20% Less likely 18 27 25 23 23 23 21 26 26 No difference 42 46 47 45 37 42 41 46 46 DK/NA 3 6 5 5 4 - 7 5 8 Demographic Summary
