March 2, 2006 - Keep Government Snooping, But Get A Warrant, American Voters Tell Quinnipiac University U.S. Poll; Bush Fades In Purple - Or Swing - States By a 76 - 19 percent margin, American voters say the government should continue monitoring phone calls or e-mail between suspected terrorists in other countries and people in the U.S., according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today. But voters say 55 - 42 percent that the government should get court orders for this surveillance. Voters in "purple states," 12 states in which there was a popular vote margin of 5 percentage points or less in the 2004 Presidential election, plus Missouri, considered the most accurate barometer of Presidential voting, want wiretap warrants 57 - 39 percent. Red states, where President George W. Bush's margin was more than 5 percent in 2004, disagree 51 - 46 percent with the President that the government does not need warrants. Blue state voters who backed John Kerry by more than 5 percent want warrants 57 - 40 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. A total of 57 percent of voters are "extremely" or "quite" worried that phone and e-mail taps without warrants could be misused to violate people's privacy. But 54 percent believe these taps have prevented some acts of terror. "Don't turn off the wiretaps, most Americans say, but the White House ought to tell a judge first. Even red state voters, who backed President Bush in 2004, want to see a court okay for wiretaps," said Maurice Carroll, Director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Forget the rights and wrongs. Who'll win the political battle, the President or his Congressional critics? A color-coded majority - in red, blue and purple states - picks the President 56 - 33 percent," Carroll added. President Bush's Approval Only 36 percent of voters approve of the job President Bush is doing, while 58 percent disapprove, his worst approval rating in a Quinnipiac University national poll and down 9 points from his 45 - 48 percent approval rating one year ago. Purple state voters give Bush a negative 31 - 63 percent approval, and blue state voters go negative 34 - 61 percent. Even red state voters are negative 42 - 51 percent. Voters disapprove 52 - 42 percent, 57 - 39 percent in purple states, of the way Bush is handling terrorism, his lowest score on this issue. By a 49 - 37 percent margin, voters want the Democrats to win control of Congress in this year's House and Senate elections. And if a candidate for Congress supports President Bush, only 16 percent of Americans are more likely to vote for that candidate, with 37 percent less likely and 45 percent who say it won't make a difference. In an open-ended question, where respondents can give any answer, 23 percent of voters say the war in Iraq is the most important problem facing the U.S. today, followed by 13 percent who list economic issues and 11 percent who list terrorism or safety. Only 38 percent of voters are "very satisfied" or "somewhat satisfied" with the way things are going in the U.S., with 61 percent who are "somewhat dissatisfied" or "very dissatisfied," the lowest satisfaction rate in a Quinnipiac University national poll. "President Bush has lost the middle, the purple states, at least for now. He gets low marks on handling the situation in Iraq and his best score on handling terrorism is only a split in the red states," Carroll said. . From February 21 - 28, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,892 registered voters nationwide. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 2.3 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida and nationwide as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or call (203) 582-5201 1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Red Blue Purple Approve 36% 75% 9% 29% 40% 32% 42% 34% 31% Disapprove 58 19 86 64 54 62 51 61 63 DK/NA 6 6 4 7 7 6 7 5 6 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? Highest Lowest Approve Approve Mar 2 Dec 6 Jul 27 May 25 Mar 9 Dec 11 Mar 2 2006 2005 2005 2005 2005 2001 2006 Approve 36 40 41 44 45 83 36 Disapprove 58 54 53 50 48 11 58 DK/NA 6 7 6 6 7 6 6 2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Red Blue Purple Approve 25% 40% 18% 20% 26% 24% 28% 24% 22% Disapprove 63 48 71 69 65 62 60 65 65 DK/NA 11 12 10 11 8 14 12 11 12 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job? Mar 2 Dec 6 Jul 27 Dec 16 Mar 6 2006 2005 2005 2004 2003 Approve 25 27 30 37 42 Disapprove 63 61 60 51 46 DK/NA 11 11 10 13 12 3. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Red Blue Purple Very satisfied 5% 8% 2% 4% 6% 3% 5% 4% 4% Smwht satisfied 33 57 19 30 36 30 35 35 29 Smwht dissatisfied 30 25 34 30 29 31 29 29 32 Very dissatisfied 31 9 45 34 27 34 29 31 34 DK/NA 1 1 - 2 2 1 1 2 1 TREND: In general how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? Highest Lowest Sat Sat Mar 2 Dec 6 Mar 10 Feb 2 Dec 16 Dec 11 Mar 2 2006 2005 2005 2005 2004 2001 2006 Very satisfied 5 6 8 10 8 21 5 Somewhat satisfied 33 33 37 37 35 47 33 Somewhat dissatisfied 30 29 28 25 27 19 30 Very dissatisfied 31 30 26 27 29 10 31 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 4. What do you think is the most important problem facing the country today? Tot War (Iraq) 23% Economy Total 13% Economy general 6 Unemployment/jobs 5 Cost of living 1 Businesses leaving/ Outsourcing 1 Terrorism Total 11% Terrorism general 7 Security/Safety 4 Politicians Total 8% Pol/Campaigns general 1 Political corruption 1 Bush administration 5 Pol/Campaigns other 1 Healthcare Total 6% Healthcare/Costs/ Insurance/HMO's 5 Medicare 1 Energy Total 5% Energy costs general 2 Gas prices 1 Oil prices 2 Immigration 3% Lack of ethics/ Morality 3% Crime/Violence Total 2% Crime/Violence general 1 Drugs 1 Education general 2% Foreign affairs/ policy general 2% Abortion 1 Budget deficits 1 Environment/ Pollution 1 Family breakdown/ Family values 1 Hurricanes 1 Lack of religion 1 Poverty/Homeless 1 Priorities should be at home, not abroad 1 Social security 1 Other 6 DK/NA 4 36. What is your preference for the outcome of the November 2006 congressional elections -- a Congress controlled by Republicans or a Congress controlled by Democrats? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Red Blue Purple Republicans 37% 86% 5% 28% 40% 34% 42% 35% 33% Democrats 49 8 90 46 48 51 44 52 53 DK/NA 14 5 5 26 12 15 14 14 14 TREND: What is your preference for the outcome of the November 2006 (2002) congressional elections -- a Congress controlled by Republicans or a Congress controlled by Democrats? Mar 2 Dec 6 Feb 22 2006 2005 2002 Republicans 37 36 39 Democrats 49 47 41 DK/NA 14 17 19 37. If a candidate for Congress supports President George W. Bush, does that make you more likely to vote for that candidate, less likely to vote for that candidate, or doesn't it make a difference? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Red Blue Purple More likely 16% 44% 3% 7% 16% 16% 20% 15% 15% Less likely 37 6 63 39 34 40 32 41 40 No difference 45 48 34 53 48 42 46 43 45 DK/NA 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 - TREND: If a candidate for Congress supports President George W. Bush, does that make you more likely to vote for that candidate, less likely to vote for that candidate, or doesn't it make a difference? Mar 2 Dec 6 2006 2005 More likely 16 16 Less likely 37 37 No difference 45 45 DK/NA 1 2 45. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling terrorism? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Red Blue Purple Approve 42% 82% 18% 35% 51% 35% 47% 39% 39% Disapprove 52 14 77 59 45 59 47 54 57 DK/NA 6 4 5 7 4 7 6 7 4 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling terrorism? Highest Lowest Approve Approve Mar 2 Dec 6 Jul 28 Dec 16 May 26 Dec 10 Mar 2 2006 2005 2005 2004 2004 2003 2006 Approve 42 46 46 53 51 59 42 Disapprove 52 48 49 43 43 36 52 DK/NA 6 5 4 4 6 5 6 46. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Red Blue Purple Approve 36% 73% 12% 29% 41% 31% 41% 33% 32% Disapprove 60 24 84 68 57 63 54 62 64 DK/NA 4 3 4 3 2 5 4 4 3 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq? (* Also hit 36% on 12/6/2005) Highest Lowest Approve Approve Mar 2 Dec 6 Dec 14 May 26 May 5 Jul 24 Mar 2 2006 2005 2004 2004 2004 2003 2006 * Approve 36 36 41 41 42 52 36 Disapprove 60 60 55 54 51 43 60 DK/NA 4 3 4 5 6 5 4 47. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Red Blue Purple Right thing 40% 74% 16% 34% 45% 36% 45% 38% 35% Wrong thing 56 19 81 61 51 60 52 56 60 DK/NA 4 6 2 5 4 5 3 6 4 TREND: Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing? Mar 2 Dec 6 Mar 10 Feb 2 Dec 16 May 26 May 5 2006 2005 2005 2005 2004 2004 2004 Right 40 41 42 44 42 50 48 Wrong 56 54 51 50 52 44 45 DK/NA 4 5 6 6 6 6 7 48. President Bush says the government can use wiretaps to listen to telephone calls and read e-mails between suspected terrorists in other countries and some people in the United States without a court order. Others say such wiretaps require a court order. Which comes closer to your view? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Red Blue Purple Without Court order 42% 72% 22% 38% 44% 40% 46% 40% 39% Court Order Required 55 25 74 59 53 56 51 57 57 DK/NA 4 2 4 3 3 4 4 3 4 49. To combat terrorism, do you think the government should or should not use wiretaps to listen to telephone calls and read e-mails between suspected terrorists in other countries and some people in the United States? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Red Blue Purple Should wiretap 76% 93% 66% 74% 82% 72% 78% 74% 77% Should not wiretap 19 5 26 22 16 21 16 20 19 DK/NA 5 2 8 4 2 7 5 6 4 50. How concerned are you that the Bush administration's use of these kinds of wiretaps without a court order could be misused to violate people's privacy: extremely concerned, quite concerned, not really concerned, or not concerned at all? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Red Blue Purple Extremely 30% 9% 42% 34% 30% 30% 27% 33% 30% Quite 27 18 34 28 27 27 26 27 28 Not really 24 36 14 23 22 25 25 21 25 Not at all 19 35 9 15 20 17 21 18 16 DK/NA 1 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 51. Do you believe such wiretaps by the Bush administration have prevented some acts of terrorism? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Red Blue Purple Yes 54% 79% 38% 49% 61% 49% 59% 53% 50% No 33 11 48 35 29 36 30 33 35 DK/NA 13 9 13 16 11 15 11 14 15 52. Some members of Congress have made an issue of this Presidential wiretapping program. Who do you think will win the political fight; the President or the critics? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Red Blue Purple President 56% 73% 45% 52% 57% 54% 59% 53% 55% Critics 33 17 44 38 34 33 30 37 33 DK/NA 11 10 11 10 9 13 10 10 12 DEFINITIONS OF RED, BLUE AND PURPLE STATES RED: Bush won by more than 5 percentage points in the 2004 Presidential election BLUE: Kerry won by more than 5 percentage points in the 2004 Presidential election PURPLE: There are 13 purple states -- 12 in which there was a margin of five points or less in the 2004 popular vote between Bush and Kerry, plus Missouri, historically considered the nation's most accurate barometer of presidential voting. These states have 153 of the 270 electoral votes needed to capture the presidency. RED STATES BLUE STATES PURPLE STATES Alabama California Colorado Alaska Connecticut Florida Arizona Delaware Iowa Arkansas Hawaii Michigan Georgia Illinois Minnesota Idaho Maine Missouri Indiana Maryland New Hampshire Kansas Massachusetts New Mexico Kentucky New Jersey Nevada Louisiana New York Pennsylvania Mississippi Rhode Island Ohio Montana Vermont Oregon Nebraska Washington Wisconsin North Carolina North Dakota Oklahoma South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Virginia West Virginia Wyoming
