February 21, 2008 - Clinton, Obama Each Have Key To Victory In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; U.S. Is In A Recession, Voters Say 2 - 1 Word format Either Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, with an advantage among independents, or New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, with an advantage among Democrats and women, would defeat Arizona Sen. McCain by a substantial margin in New Jersey in the presidential election, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Sen. Clinton beats McCain 47 - 41 percent, taking 80 percent of the Democratic vote and 52 percent of the women, while splitting independents. Obama wins 46 - 39 percent, bolstered by a 47 - 38 percent edge among independent voters, according to the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll. New Jersey voters like Obama more than Clinton, giving him a 58 - 21 percent favorability rating to her 50 - 43 percent. McCain gets a 52 - 28 percent favorability rating. "Sen. Obama runs as well as the Senator next door against Sen. John McCain in New Jersey in the general election. The big difference is that Sen. Clinton and Sen. McCain split the independent vote almost evenly while Obama holds a nine-point edge among independents - the group that has given the Democratic candidate the edge in New Jersey in most recent statewide elections," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Also, Obama ties McCain 43 - 43 percent among men in New Jersey while Clinton loses the male vote 41 - 47 percent to McCain. "Either way, McCain could run a close race in New Jersey this year, but at this early point not close enough to make the Garden State a key swing state in the presidential election." In an open-ended question, allowing for any answer, 27 percent of New Jersey voters say the economy is the most important issue in deciding how they will vote, followed by 21 percent who list the war in Iraq, 11 percent who list healthcare and 9 percent who list terrorism. The U.S. economy is in a recession, voters say 64 - 32 percent. Republicans say 50 - 45 percent that the economy is not in a recession, while Democrats say 79 - 18 percent that it is. Independent voters also use the 'R' word 62 - 34 percent. Only 16 percent of voters describe the economy as "excellent" or "good," while 83 percent say the economy is "not so good" or "poor." New Jersey voters also say 65 - 31 percent that going to war in Iraq was the wrong thing to do. The situation in Iraq is getting better, 28 percent of voters say, while 24 percent say it is getting worse and 45 percent say it is the same. The U.S. should set a timetable to get out of Iraq, 56 percent of voters say, while 38 percent say the U.S. should stay until the country is stabilized. "With two-thirds of voters saying the U.S. is in a recession, the economy has become more important than the Iraq war in the election, a development which could rewrite the script in New Jersey," Richards said. If they had to choose, 30 percent of New Jersey voters would back Sen. Robert Menendez as a Democratic vice presidential candidate, while 29 percent would back Gov. Jon Corzine and 40 percent are undecided. New Jersey voters disapprove 70 - 26 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing. Voters say 35 - 7 percent that President Bush's job performance makes them less likely to vote for a Republican for President, while 55 percent say this will not affect their vote. From February 13 - 18, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,803 New Jersey voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.3 percent. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x271.xml, or call (203) 582-5201. 1. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Clinton 47% 7% 80% 43% 41% 52% 42% 75% McCain 41 83 10 44 47 36 47 13 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 2 1 2 2 1 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 3 4 4 2 2 4 DK/NA 7 5 5 9 7 8 7 4 Age in years......... No col College Tot 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ degree degree Clinton 47% 53% 50% 44% 47% 46% 48% McCain 41 42 38 44 38 41 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 1 2 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 - 3 2 5 3 2 DK/NA 7 2 7 8 8 8 6 TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? Feb 21 Sep 26 Jul 5 Apr 19 Mar 1 Jan 25 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Clinton 47 46 47 45 45 43 McCain 41 41 41 41 45 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 3 2 2 2 DK/NA 7 7 7 9 6 10 2. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 46% 12% 72% 47% 43% 49% 39% 87% McCain 39 74 15 38 43 35 46 6 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 1 DK/NA 11 10 7 11 9 12 11 5 Age in years......... No col College Tot 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ degree degree Obama 46% 59% 54% 43% 41% 44% 52% McCain 39 32 34 44 38 41 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 5 1 2 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 2 2 3 2 2 DK/NA 11 4 9 10 15 11 9 TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? Feb 21 Sep 26 Jul 5 Apr 19 Mar 1 Jan 25 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Obama 46 44 44 43 45 39 McCain 39 41 40 41 41 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 5 4 3 2 2 DK/NA 11 9 9 11 10 15 3. Is your opinion of -- Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 50% 17% 77% 47% 43% 55% 45% 69% Unfavorable 43 80 16 44 49 38 48 20 Hvn't hrd enough 5 3 5 7 6 4 5 4 REFUSED 3 1 3 2 2 3 2 6 Age in years......... No col College Tot 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ degree degree Favorable 50% 49% 51% 50% 49% 50% 48% Unfavorable 43 42 41 44 42 42 44 Hvn't hrd enough 5 9 5 4 5 5 4 REFUSED 3 - 3 2 4 2 3 TREND: Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Feb 21 Dec 13 Sep 26 Jul 5 Apr 19 Mar 1 Jan 25 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Favorable 50 43 51 50 49 47 53 Unfavorable 43 42 41 42 43 43 38 Hvn't hrd enough 5 11 6 6 5 8 6 REFUSED 3 4 2 2 3 2 2 4. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 58% 41% 71% 59% 56% 59% 53% 86% Unfavorable 21 35 13 17 22 19 23 5 Hvn't hrd enough 19 22 14 21 19 19 22 5 REFUSED 3 2 1 3 2 3 3 3 Age in years......... No col College Tot 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ degree degree Favorable 58% 59% 63% 57% 56% 54% 66% Unfavorable 21 21 19 23 16 22 17 Hvn't hrd enough 19 18 15 18 23 22 14 REFUSED 3 2 2 2 4 3 3 TREND: Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Feb 21 Sep 26 Jul 5 Apr 19 Mar 1 Jan 25 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Favorable 58 50 49 48 42 41 Unfavorable 21 23 21 15 11 9 Hvn't hrd enough 19 25 29 34 45 49 REFUSED 3 2 1 2 2 1 5. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 52% 77% 33% 54% 57% 48% 57% 27% Unfavorable 28 12 43 26 27 29 25 46 Hvn't hrd enough 16 9 22 16 13 19 14 24 REFUSED 3 2 2 4 2 5 3 3 Age in years......... No col College Tot 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ degree degree Favorable 52% 50% 47% 57% 52% 50% 58% Unfavorable 28 24 31 26 31 28 27 Hvn't hrd enough 16 26 21 14 12 19 12 REFUSED 3 - 1 3 5 4 3 TREND: Is your opinion of John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Feb 21 Sep 26 Jul 5 Apr 19 Mar 1 Jan 25 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Favorable 52 47 46 52 48 52 Unfavorable 28 28 30 24 24 24 Hvn't hrd enough 16 23 21 20 25 21 REFUSED 3 3 3 4 4 2 6. Thinking ahead to the November 2008 presidential election, what is the single most important issue in your vote for president? Tot Economy Total 27% Economy general 22 Unemployment/jobs 2 Cost of living 2 Business leaving/ Outsourcing 1 War (Iraq) 21% Healthcare/Costs/ Ins/HMO's 11% Terrorism Total 9% Terrorism general 3 Security/Safety 6 Taxes general 4% Politicians Total 3% Political corruption 1 Bush admin 1 Politicians/ Campaigns other 1 Immigration 3% Foreign affairs/ policy general 3% Budget Total 2% Budget deficits 1 Gov too big/Gov spending 1 Education general 1% Environment 1% Experience/Leadership 1% Other 5% DK/NA 6% 11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 26% 59% 8% 18% 27% 25% 29% 5% Disapprove 70 37 90 75 69 70 66 94 DK/NA 5 5 2 6 4 5 5 1 Age in years......... No col College Tot 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ degree degree Approve 26% 22% 29% 25% 23% 26% 25% Disapprove 70 74 67 71 71 69 71 DK/NA 5 4 5 4 6 5 4 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? Highest Lowest Approve Approve Feb 21 Dec 13 Sep 26 Jul 5 Apr 19 Oct 18 Jul 5 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 2001 2007 Approve 26 26 27 21 25 90 21 Disapprove 70 67 68 74 70 7 74 DK/NA 5 7 5 4 5 3 4 24. Both Governor Jon Corzine and Senator Robert Menendez have been mentioned as possible vice presidential candidates this year. If it came down to that, which one would you prefer to run for vice president - Jon Corzine or Robert Menendez? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Corzine 29% 20% 38% 30% 29% 29% 30% 35% Menendez 30 29 31 31 32 29 29 28 DK/NA 40 51 31 39 39 42 41 37 Age in years......... No col College Tot 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ degree degree Corzine 29% 28% 31% 30% 30% 25% 38% Menendez 30 54 34 28 22 32 27 DK/NA 40 18 35 42 48 43 35 26. Would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days as - Excellent, good, not so good, or poor? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Excellent 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 2% Good 15 26 6 16 19 12 17 6 Not so good 45 47 45 45 42 47 45 38 Poor 38 25 46 38 36 39 36 53 DK/NA 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 Age in years......... No col College Tot 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ degree degree Excellent 1% - 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% Good 15 15 19 13 15 15 16 Not so good 45 51 44 46 42 43 49 Poor 38 31 35 41 41 39 34 DK/NA 1 2 1 0 1 2 0 TREND: Would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days as - Excellent, good, not so good, or poor? Feb 21 Sep 21 Aug 5 Jun 23 Oct 18 2008 2004 2004 2004 2001 Excellent 1 2 2 3 1 Good 15 38 40 38 39 Not so good 45 39 40 44 50 Poor 38 20 17 14 10 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 27. During the next 12 months, do you think your own personal financial situation will get better, get worse, or stay about the same? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Get better 23% 24% 23% 21% 26% 19% 20% 30% Get worse 20 14 23 22 17 23 19 26 Stay the same 55 60 52 55 55 56 59 42 DK/NA 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 Age in years......... No col College Tot 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ degree degree Get better 23% 55% 32% 18% 8% 21% 26% Get worse 20 10 12 23 29 22 16 Stay the same 55 35 55 57 60 54 57 DK/NA 2 - 1 2 3 3 1 TREND: During the next 12 months, do you think your own personal financial situation will get better, get worse, or stay about the same? Feb 21 Oct 18 2008 2001 Get better 23 35 Get worse 20 8 Stay the same 55 54 DK/NA 2 3 28. Do you think the United States economy is in a recession now? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 64% 45% 79% 62% 61% 66% 60% 78% No 32 50 18 34 36 29 34 22 DK/NA 4 4 2 4 3 5 5 - Age in years......... No col College Tot 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ degree degree Yes 64% 56% 59% 68% 66% 65% 60% No 32 38 40 29 27 30 36 DK/NA 4 7 1 3 7 4 4 29. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Right thing 31% 66% 8% 27% 35% 27% 37% 7% Wrong thing 65 30 87 69 61 68 60 85 DK/NA 5 5 5 4 3 6 3 8 Age in years......... No col College Tot 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ degree degree Right thing 31% 28% 32% 33% 27% 31% 31% Wrong thing 65 67 63 64 68 64 65 DK/NA 5 6 6 3 5 5 4 TREND: Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing? Highest Lowest Right Right Feb 21 Jul 5 Apr 19 Mar 1 Jan 25 Oct 19 Jan 25 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 2004 2007 Right thing 31 32 33 32 30 44 30 Wrong thing 65 64 62 64 63 51 63 DK/NA 5 5 5 3 7 5 7 30. Do you think the situation in Iraq is getting better, getting worse, or staying the same? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Better 28% 54% 8% 28% 37% 21% 33% 6% Worse 24 10 38 22 20 28 20 42 Same 45 34 52 48 42 47 44 49 DK/NA 3 2 2 2 2 3 2 3 Age in years......... No col College Tot 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ degree degree Better 28% 19% 24% 30% 33% 28% 29% Worse 24 34 25 23 23 25 22 Same 45 46 48 45 42 43 47 DK/NA 3 - 3 2 3 3 2 31. Should the United States set an announced timetable to get out of Iraq or stay until the country is stabilized? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Set timetable 56% 35% 75% 53% 48% 62% 51% 77% Stay until stabilized 38 63 19 40 49 29 43 15 DK/NA 6 3 6 7 3 9 5 8 Age in years......... No col College Tot 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ degree degree Set timetable 56% 55% 56% 57% 53% 56% 55% Stay until stabilized 38 39 38 38 38 38 39 DK/NA 6 6 6 5 9 6 6 32. Does President Bush's job performance make you more likely to vote for Republican John McCain for President this November, less likely to vote for him, or doesn't it make a difference? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk More likely 7% 15% 3% 5% 8% 7% 8% 3% Less likely 35 10 55 36 33 37 30 60 Doesn't make diff 55 74 38 57 57 53 59 34 DK/NA 3 1 4 2 2 3 2 4 Age in years......... No col College Tot 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ degree degree More likely 7% 8% 7% 5% 10% 8% 6% Less likely 35 30 39 35 37 33 38 Doesn't make diff 55 61 53 58 47 55 54 DK/NA 3 1 1 2 6 3 2
