August 13, 2008 - Blacks, Women Give Obama 10-Point Lead In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Back Offshore Drilling Almost 2 - 1 Word format With the support of 94 percent of black voters and a 15-point lead among women, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama tops Arizona Sen. John McCain 51 - 41 percent among New Jersey likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Independent voters go 45 percent for Sen. Obama and 42 percent for Sen. McCain. Men also give the Democrat a slight edge, 48 - 45 percent, while women back Obama 53 - 38 percent. McCain leads 50 - 42 percent among white voters. Obama leads 66 - 28 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old and 51 - 42 percent among voters 35 to 54, as McCain has a 47 - 44 percent edge with voters over 55 years old, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. New Jersey voters give Obama a 57 - 31 percent favorability rating to McCain's 54 - 35 percent. Twenty-two percent of Obama voters and 22 percent of McCain voters say they might change their mind before Election Day. "New Jersey continues to wear its true blue stripes and appears to be solidly in Sen. Barack Obama's corner heading into the Fall campaign. Like most strong Republican contenders, Sen. John McCain can wish, but it is unlikely that he can swing the tide in New Jersey unless he swings the tide dramatically nationwide," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. Obama cares about their needs and problems, New Jersey likely voters say 60 - 32 percent, while voters say 52 - 42 percent that McCain cares. The economy is the most important issue in their vote for President, 51 percent of New Jersey likely voters say, followed by 17 percent who list the war in Iraq, 10 percent who list terrorism and 9 percent who list health care. New Jersey voters disapprove 70 - 26 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing and say 62 - 34 percent that going to war in Iraq was the wrong thing to do. Still, voters say 52 - 44 percent that the U.S. should keep troops in Iraq until the country is stable rather than set a fixed withdrawal timetable. Energy Issues Asked which economic issue worries them the most, 28 percent of voters say gasoline prices, followed by 23 percent who cite health care and 16 percent who list food prices. By a 62 - 34 percent margin, New Jersey voters support drilling for oil in currently protected offshore areas. Republicans back it 84 - 14 percent, as do independent voters 66 - 29 percent. Democrats oppose offshore drilling 51 - 42 percent. New Jersey voters also support new nuclear power plants 61 - 32 percent, and drilling in the Alaskan National Wildlife Refuge 53 - 41 percent. "New Jersey voters may like their beaches, but they also like being able to fill the tank and drive to the beaches," Richards said. "If Obama is going to continue his opposition to offshore drilling, he'll have to convince voters it won't help bring down the price of gas." From August 4 - 10, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,468 New Jersey likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. 1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners". LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 51% 11% 86% 45% 48% 53% 42% 94% McCain 41 87 8 42 45 38 50 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 7 2 5 12 6 9 7 4 IMP ISSUE Q19 Philly War Econ Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Obama 73% 55% 60% 57% 41% 50% 44% McCain 22 37 30 33 52 43 49 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 - 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 4 7 9 9 6 6 5 WHITE........................... AGE IN YRS....... NoColl College 18-34 35-54 55+ Degree Degree Men Wom Cath Jew Obama 66% 51% 44% 38% 49% 37% 46% 36% 59% McCain 28 42 47 52 45 55 44 54 33 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 5 6 8 9 5 6 9 8 8 PresVt2004.. BushJobAppQ14 Bush Kerry App Dis Obama 13% 84% 12% 67% McCain 82 10 84 25 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - DK/NA 5 5 3 7 TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED VOTERS............................................ Aug 13 Jun 12 Feb 21 Sep 26 Jul 5 Apr 19 Mar 1 Jan 25 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Obama 46 45 46 44 44 43 45 39 McCain 37 39 39 41 40 41 41 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 5 4 3 2 2 DK/NA 13 12 11 9 9 11 10 15 1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS......... CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN CAND CHOICE Q1 Tot Obama McCain Made up 76% 76% 76% Might change 22 22 22 DK/NA 2 2 2 8. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 57% 24% 87% 53% 55% 59% 49% 94% Unfavorable 31 66 7 30 36 26 38 - Hvn't hrd enough 9 8 6 11 6 11 10 4 REFUSED 3 2 1 6 2 4 3 2 9. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 54% 89% 23% 61% 59% 49% 61% 23% Unfavorable 35 6 64 26 34 37 30 61 Hvn't hrd enough 8 4 10 9 5 11 7 14 REFUSED 3 1 2 3 2 3 3 2 14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 26% 63% 5% 23% 25% 26% 29% 13% Disapprove 70 34 92 73 70 70 68 81 DK/NA 4 3 3 4 4 4 3 6 19. Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year? (READ OPTIONS) LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Terrorism 10% 25% 2% 9% 11% 10% 12% - The war in Iraq 17 9 26 13 15 19 17 24 The economy 51 44 54 53 55 48 50 60 Illegal immigration 6 10 3 8 7 6 7 2 Health care 9 7 12 8 5 12 8 12 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 3 2 2 4 4 2 3 2 DK/NA 3 3 2 3 2 4 3 - 20. Would you say that Barack Obama cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 60% 36% 84% 57% 57% 63% 55% 89% No 32 59 9 33 38 26 37 5 DK/NA 8 5 7 11 5 11 8 6 21. Would you say that John McCain cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 52% 80% 30% 57% 55% 48% 59% 22% No 42 17 63 36 41 44 36 71 DK/NA 6 4 7 7 4 8 5 7 22. If elected, John McCain would be the first person to become President at age 72 - Does that make you more likely to vote for McCain, less likely to vote for McCain, or doesn't it make a difference? LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk More likely 1% 3% 0% 2% 1% 2% 1% 2% Less likely 20 7 31 17 18 21 17 34 Doesn't make diff 78 90 66 80 80 75 81 63 DK/NA 1 - 2 1 1 2 1 2 23. If elected, Barack Obama would be the first African-American President. Does that make you more likely to vote for Obama, less likely to vote for Obama, or doesn't it make a difference? LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk More likely 6% 2% 10% 4% 6% 6% 3% 21% Less likely 3 7 2 2 3 3 4 - Doesn't make diff 90 91 86 94 90 90 92 76 DK/NA 1 - 2 1 1 2 1 3 24. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Very satisfied 2% 3% 1% 2% 1% 2% 1% 4% Smwht satisfied 18 35 10 15 19 17 19 10 Smwht dissatisfied 37 41 33 39 40 36 39 29 Very dissatisfied 42 21 55 44 40 44 40 56 DK/NA 1 - 1 - - 1 1 1 25. Which best describes your family's financial situation - Getting ahead, falling behind or holding steady? LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Getting ahead 11% 16% 7% 11% 15% 8% 11% 10% Falling behind 23 17 28 22 22 24 22 31 Holding steady 65 65 64 66 62 67 66 58 DK/NA 1 2 1 - 2 1 1 1 26. As you think about your own financial situation, which of the following economic issues worries you the most right now -- A) declining retirement fund values, B) declining real estate values, C) rising health care costs D) rising gasoline prices, or E) rising food prices? LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk A) Retirement funds 15% 17% 14% 14% 14% 16% 16% 17% B) Real estate vals 13 12 15 11 14 12 13 16 C) Health care cost 23 22 27 22 18 28 23 27 D) Gasoline prices 28 32 22 30 34 22 27 23 E) Food prices 16 15 16 17 15 17 17 8 DK/NA 5 2 6 5 5 5 4 8 27. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing? LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Right thing 34% 70% 9% 33% 37% 31% 39% 10% Wrong thing 62 27 89 60 59 64 57 87 DK/NA 4 4 2 6 3 5 4 4 28. Regardless of how you intend to vote, what would you prefer the next president do about the war in Iraq? LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk A) Begin immediate withdrawal/18 mos 44% 15% 67% 39% 39% 48% 40% 68% B) Stay until stable/ No fixed dates 52 83 29 57 58 47 57 25 DK/NA 4 3 4 4 3 5 3 7 29. To help solve the energy crisis and make America less dependent on foreign oil, do you support or oppose - Building new nuclear power plants? LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Support 61% 77% 43% 68% 76% 47% 65% 41% Oppose 32 17 49 25 22 42 28 51 DK/NA 7 6 7 8 2 11 8 8 30. To help solve the energy crisis and make America less dependent on foreign oil, do you support or oppose - Drilling for new oil supplies in currently protected areas off shore? LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Support 62% 84% 42% 66% 65% 59% 65% 48% Oppose 34 14 51 29 32 35 32 41 DK/NA 5 3 6 4 3 6 4 11 31. To help solve the energy crisis and make America less dependent on foreign oil, do you support or oppose - Drilling for new oil in the Alaskan national wildlife refuge? LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Support 53% 81% 33% 55% 58% 49% 56% 41% Oppose 41 16 59 40 39 44 40 44 DK/NA 6 3 8 6 4 7 4 15
