February 4, 2009 - 12-Point Shift From Corzine To Christie In Gov Race, Quinnipiac University New Jersey Poll Finds; 9% Say Life In Garden State Got Better Under Corzine Word format While few New Jersey voters know much about him, former U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie, a Republican challenger, leads Democratic incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine 44 - 38 percent in this year's Governor's race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This reverses a 42 - 36 percent Gov. Corzine lead in a November 19 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. In this latest survey, Democrats support Corzine 72 - 10 percent while Christie leads 86 - 7 percent among Republicans and 49 - 24 percent among independent voters. Men back the Republican 51 - 32 percent while women go Democratic 42 - 38 percent. Black voters back Corzine 68 - 9 percent while white voters back Christie 52 - 32 percent. In a Republican primary, Christie tops former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan 44 - 17 percent, with 5 percent for Franklin Township Mayor Brian Levine and 2 percent for Assembly member Rick Merkt. Voters disapprove 50 - 41 percent of the job Corzine is doing, continuing a six-month string of negative ratings. Independent voters disapprove 62 - 30 percent, matching the same 2-1 anti-Corzine margin from the election matchup. "Republican Christopher Christie has broken out of the gate as a strong challenger to Gov. Jon Corzine. In less than four months, he has come from trailing the Governor by six points to leading him by six points - a 12-point shift," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "In that time, Corzine's approval rating has slipped only a couple of points, but Christie's favorability ratings have jumped by nine points," Richards added. "Corzine suddenly has become the underdog in this race and history will surely repeat itself in New Jersey in 2009. The big question is whether Corzine will come back like Democratic Gov. Brendan Byrne did in 1977 or go down to defeat like Jim Florio in 1993." New Jersey voters say 54 - 33 percent that Corzine does not deserve to be reelected. Democrats want him back 61 - 22 percent, while Republicans say no 87 - 8 percent and independent voters turn thumbs down 64 - 23 percent. Corzine also gets a negative 49 - 41 percent favorability rating, with 7 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion. Christie gets a 31 - 7 percent favorability, but 61 percent of New Jersey voters don't know enough about him to form an opinion, down from 70 percent in November. For Lonegan, 78 percent don't know enough. While Lonegan is largely unknown, he trails Corzine 42 - 36 percent in the race for Governor, leading the incumbent 40 - 28 percent among independent voters and 76 - 11 percent among Republicans. Democrats back Corzine 75 - 6 percent. "Among independent New Jersey voters, Christie has gone from a narrow lead last November to a 2-1 lead over Corzine in the new poll," Richards said. Only 9 percent of New Jersey voters say things have gotten better in New Jersey since Corzine became Governor, while 45 percent say they've gotten worse and 43 percent say they're the same, almost identical to results from a November 19, 2008, Quinnipiac University poll. Only 31 percent of New Jersey voters are "very satisfied" or "somewhat satisfied" with the way things are going in the state, while 68 percent are "somewhat dissatisfied" or "very dissatisfied," also identical to November 19 results. Voters approve 45 - 38 percent of the job U.S. Sen. Frank Lautenberg is doing. U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez gets a 42 - 30 percent approval rating. From January 29 - February 2, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,173 New Jersey registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. The survey includes 385 Republicans, with a margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and nationally as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed: http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201. 1. (If registered Republican) As you may know there will be an election for Governor in New Jersey this year. Thinking about the Republican primary for Governor, if the Republican primary were being held today, do you think you would vote for Former prosecutor Christopher Christie or some other Republican? Rep Christie 40% Other Republican 21 DK/NA 39 2. (If registered Republican)If the Republican primary were being held today, and the candidates were Former prosecutor Christopher Christie, Former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan, Assemblyman Rick Merkt or Franklin Township Mayor Brian Levine, for whom would you vote? Rep Christie 44% Lonegan 17 Merkt 2 Levine 5 DK/NA 32 3. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine the Democrat and Christopher Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Corzine 38% 7% 72% 24% 32% 42% 32% 68% Christie 44 86 10 49 51 38 52 9 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 3 2 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 1 1 1 2 DK/NA 16 6 16 23 14 18 13 20 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Corzine 51% 41% 31% 37% 28% Christie 27 40 53 42 54 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 3 - 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 - DK/NA 17 17 12 18 14 TREND: If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine the Democrat, and Christopher Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote? Feb 4 Nov 19 Sep 17 Aug 12 2009 2008 2008 2008 Corzine 38 42 42 40 Christie 44 36 40 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 DK/NA 16 18 16 17 4. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine the Democrat and Steve Lonegan the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Corzine 42% 11% 75% 28% 38% 45% 36% 73% Lonegan 36 76 6 40 41 32 43 4 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 2 3 3 3 2 5 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 - DK/NA 18 9 15 26 16 20 17 18 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Corzine 58% 45% 35% 42% 30% Lonegan 22 33 42 33 51 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 5 2 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 2 DK/NA 16 19 18 22 13 5. Is your opinion of -- Christopher Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 31% 49% 15% 34% 38% 24% 37% 11% Unfavorable 7 2 13 6 8 7 7 15 Hvn't hrd enough 61 50 70 59 53 68 56 74 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 1 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Favorable 18% 29% 43% 24% 39% Unfavorable 10 8 4 8 8 Hvn't hrd enough 72 63 51 68 52 REFUSED 1 - 1 - 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Christopher Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Feb 4 Nov 19 Sep 17 Aug 12 2009 2008 2008 2008 Favorable 31 22 25 21 Unfavorable 7 6 7 7 Hvn't hrd enough 61 70 67 69 REFUSED 1 2 2 2 6. Is your opinion of -- Steve Lonegan favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 15% 31% 5% 14% 20% 10% 17% 5% Unfavorable 6 2 10 6 7 5 7 2 Hvn't hrd enough 78 67 84 80 72 84 75 92 REFUSED 1 - - 1 - 1 1 1 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Favorable 9% 14% 21% 8% 22% Unfavorable 7 10 3 3 4 Hvn't hrd enough 83 76 76 88 73 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 - 7. Is your opinion of -- Jon Corzine favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 41% 15% 68% 29% 38% 44% 37% 61% Unfavorable 49 81 20 58 54 43 54 18 Hvn't hrd enough 7 2 9 8 5 9 6 16 REFUSED 3 2 3 5 2 4 3 4 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Favorable 50% 46% 31% 43% 32% Unfavorable 40 44 59 43 60 Hvn't hrd enough 5 8 5 9 7 REFUSED 5 2 5 5 1 TREND: Is your opinion of -- Jon Corzine favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Feb 4 Nov 19 Sep 17 Aug 12 2009 2008 2008 2008 Favorable 41 42 42 39 Unfavorable 49 43 46 46 Hvn't hrd enough 7 11 9 10 REFUSED 3 4 3 5 8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Corzine is handling his job as Governor? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 41% 13% 68% 30% 39% 43% 38% 58% Disapprove 50 82 22 62 56 46 55 27 DK/NA 8 5 11 8 5 11 7 15 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 55% 45% 34% 42% 30% Disapprove 41 47 59 44 63 DK/NA 4 9 7 14 7 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Corzine is handling his job as Governor? Highest Lowest Approve Approve Feb 4 Nov 19 Sep 17 Aug 12 Jun 11 Apr 18 Apr 26 2009 2008 2008 2008 2008 2007 2006 Approve 41 43 40 42 38 51 35 Disapprove 50 46 51 48 52 36 42 DK/NA 8 11 9 10 11 13 23 9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 30% 14% 49% 21% 25% 34% 28% 40% Disapprove 54 74 33 65 66 44 57 42 DK/NA 16 12 17 14 9 21 16 18 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 35% 33% 29% 32% 19% Disapprove 51 50 61 49 65 DK/NA 14 17 9 18 16 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? Highest Lowest Approve Approve Feb 4 Nov 19 Sep 17 Aug 12 Jun 11 Jan 26 Jul 14 2009 2008 2008 2008 2008 2005 2006 Approve 30 28 24 25 25 44 20 Disapprove 54 51 58 59 57 31 71 DK/NA 16 20 18 16 18 25 10 10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Frank Lautenberg is handling his job as United States Senator? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 45% 20% 67% 39% 40% 50% 45% 59% Disapprove 38 69 13 43 47 30 42 22 DK/NA 16 12 20 17 13 19 14 19 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 47% 50% 35% 48% 42% Disapprove 33 35 50 33 42 DK/NA 19 15 15 19 17 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Frank Lautenberg is handling his job as United States Senator? (*also 55% on 9/23/1999 & 7/22/1999) Highest Lowest Approve Approve Feb 4 Nov 19 Jun 11 Feb 20 Dec 11 Jul 27 Feb 20 2009 2008 2008 2008 2007 2000* 2008 Approve 45 50 46 39 42 55 39 Disapprove 38 36 35 31 33 22 31 DK/NA 16 14 18 29 25 23 29 11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Menendez is handling his job as United States Senator? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 42% 22% 58% 38% 40% 43% 40% 51% Disapprove 30 54 11 35 37 25 33 11 DK/NA 28 24 32 27 23 33 27 38 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 46% 43% 33% 48% 37% Disapprove 30 29 36 23 36 DK/NA 24 28 31 29 27 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Menendez is handling his job as United States Senator? Highest Lowest Approve Approve Feb 4 Nov 19 Sep 17 Aug 12 Jun 11 Feb 4 Feb 20 2009 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2008 Approve 42 38 35 33 36 42 30 Disapprove 30 30 31 34 26 30 31 DK/NA 28 32 34 33 37 28 39 14. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New Jersey today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Very satisfied 2% 1% 4% - 1% 3% 2% 5% Smwht satisfied 29 17 44 22 26 32 27 42 Smwht dissatisfied 36 30 36 41 37 36 37 31 Very dissatisfied 32 52 15 37 36 29 34 23 DK/NA 1 1 - - - 1 1 - Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Very satisfied - 3% 1% 1% 2% Smwht satisfied 47 31 23 28 19 Smwht dissatisfied 28 36 38 42 35 Very dissatisfied 25 30 38 28 42 DK/NA - 1 - 1 1 TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New Jersey today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? (*also 71% on 02/12/1999) VERY+SMWHT.... High Low Feb 4 Sep 17 Aug 12 Jun 11 Feb 20 Dec 26 Jun 16 2009 2008 2008 2008 2008 2000* 2006 Very satisfied 2 3 2 3 4 10 3 Smwht satisfied 29 32 30 29 29 61 27 Smwht dissatisfied 36 36 35 35 33 21 37 Very dissatisfied 32 29 32 33 33 7 32 DK/NA 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 15. Looking ahead to the 2009 election for Governor, do you feel that Jon Corzine deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes/Deserves 33% 8% 61% 23% 30% 36% 29% 51% No/Does not 54 87 22 64 62 46 59 25 DK/NA 13 5 17 14 7 18 11 24 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Yes/Deserves 42% 38% 25% 37% 23% No/Does not 42 48 64 47 69 DK/NA 16 14 11 16 8 TREND: Looking ahead to the 2009 election for Governor, do you feel that Jon Corzine deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? Feb 4 Nov 19 Sep 17 Aug 12 Feb 20 Dec 11 2009 2008 2008 2008 2008 2007 Yes 33 37 37 37 32 44 No 54 51 50 50 51 43 DK/NA 13 12 13 12 17 13 16. Since Jon Corzine became Governor in January 2006, do you feel that things in New Jersey have gotten better, gotten worse, or stayed about the same? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Better 9% 3% 18% 5% 8% 11% 6% 25% Worse 45 66 25 53 49 40 50 25 The same 43 30 53 38 40 45 41 43 DK/NA 3 2 3 4 3 4 3 7 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Better 13% 13% 5% 9% 5% Worse 32 40 56 36 60 The same 52 44 35 49 33 DK/NA 4 3 4 5 1 TREND: Since Jon Corzine became Governor in January 2006, do you feel that things in New Jersey have gotten better, gotten worse, or stayed about the same? (*also 9% on 08/12/2008) Highest Lowest Better Better Feb 4 Nov 19 Sep 17 Aug 12 Jun 11 Feb 28 Feb 4 2009 2008 2008 2008 2008 2007 2009* Better 9 10 10 9 10 20 9 Worse 45 44 39 39 39 15 45 The same 43 43 47 49 50 62 43 DK/NA 3 3 4 3 2 3 3
