May 20, 2009 - Christie Has 23-Point Lead In New Jersey GOP Primary, Quinnipiac University New Jersey Poll Finds; Corzine, With Low Approval, Gains No Ground On Christie Word format Two weeks before the primary in the New Jersey Governor's race, former federal prosecutor Christopher Christie leads former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan 56 - 33 percent among likely Republican primary voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This compares to a 46 - 37 percent Christie lead over Lonegan in an April 22 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. Among all registered voters, Gov. Jon Corzine trails Christie 45 - 38 percent, identical to the results of the April 22 survey. In a general election matchup, Lonegan gets 42 percent to Gov. Corzine's 40 percent, compared to a 41 - 41 percent tie April 22. In the Corzine - Christie matchup, independent voters back the Republican 52 - 25 percent, a 2-1 margin that has been consistent for several months. Republicans also back Christie 84 - 7 percent while Democrats go with Corzine 72 - 13 percent. Corzine is struggling with a 53 - 38 percent disapproval rating, near his all-time high disapproval of 54 - 37 percent. Voters disapprove 60 - 30 percent of the way he is handling the economy. "Chris Christie has solidified his Republican support and is well over the 50 percent needed for victory, while Steve Lonegan has not picked up any significant strength in the past month," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "No one knows who will turn out in a New Jersey Republican primary so anything can happen, but all signs point to a Christie victory. Most of Lonegan's strength comes from conservative GOP voters, with Christie scoring heavily among those who say they are moderate and liberal Republicans." "The good news for Gov. Jon Corzine is that he may have hit bottom and stopped his slide. Once the primary is over, Corzine will put on his million-dollar golden gloves and start to fight," Richards added. Christie is too liberal, 6 percent of New Jersey voters say, with 15 percent who say he is too conservative and 40 percent who say he is "about right." The "about right" judgment includes 59 percent of Republicans and 44 percent of independent voters. Lonegan is too liberal, 5 percent say, with 16 percent who say he is too conservative, 29 percent who say "about right" and 50 percent who are undecided. By a 51 - 37 percent margin, New Jersey voters have an unfavorable opinion of Corzine, compared to 50 - 39 percent April 22. Christie gets a 33 - 11 percent favorability, with 54 percent who haven't heard enough about him to form an opinion, virtually unchanged from April 22. For Lonegan, 68 percent haven't heard enough to form an opinion. New Jersey voters say 54 - 33 percent that Corzine does not deserve to be reelected. Independent voters say no to a second term 61 - 25 percent, as do Republicans 87 - 8 percent. Democrats want an encore 58 - 26 percent. Only 8 percent of Garden State voters say things have gotten better since Corzine became Governor, while 49 percent say they got worse and 39 percent say they've stayed the same. "Independent voters are the key to this race and by a 2-1 margin they don't like the job Corzine is doing. But all Corzine has to do is win back half the Democrats now voting for Christie and he is back in the race," Richards said. New Jersey's two U.S. Senators, Frank Lautenberg and Robert Menendez, continue to get lackluster approval ratings, 46 - 37 percent for Lautenberg and 41 - 32 percent for Menendez. But President Barack Obama gets a 67 - 27 percent approval, his highest so far. The President gets a 93 - 4 nod from Democrats and a 63 - 29 percent OK from independent voters, while Republicans disapprove 60 - 32 percent. From May 12 - 18, Quinnipiac University surveyed 2,532 New Jersey registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points. The survey includes 543 Republican likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points, and 524 Democratic likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and nationally as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed: http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201. 1. (If registered Republican) If the Republican primary for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Christopher Christie, Steve Lonegan and Rick Merkt, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Christie, Lonegan or Merkt? This table includes "Leaners". LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Christie 56% 54% 57% Lonegan 33 39 25 Merkt 2 2 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 9 4 15 TREND: (If registered Republican) If the Republican primary for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Christopher Christie, Steve Lonegan, and Rick Merkt, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Christie, Lonegan or Merkt? This table includes "Leaners". LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS May 20 Apr 22 2009 2009 Christie 56 46 Lonegan 33 37 Merkt 2 2 Brown na 1 Levine na - SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - DK/NA 9 14 2. (If registered Democrat) If the Democratic primary for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine , Jeff Boss, Carl Bergmanson, and Roger Bacon, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q2) As of today, do you lean more toward Corzine, Boss, Bergmanson, or Bacon? This table includes "Leaners". LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Corzine 65% 71% 60% Boss 5 6 4 Bergmanson 4 3 4 Bacon 5 5 5 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 20 14 26 TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the Democratic primary for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine, Jeff Boss, Carl Bergmanson, and Roger Bacon, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q2) As of today, do you lean more toward Corzine, Boss, Bergmanson, or Bacon? This table includes "Leaners". LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS May 20 Apr 22 2009 2009 Corzine 65 70 Boss 5 2 Bergmanson 4 2 Bacon 5 3 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - DK/NA 20 21 3. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine the Democrat and Christopher Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Corzine 38% 7% 72% 25% 35% 40% 31% 70% Christie 45 84 13 52 48 42 54 9 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 4 2 2 2 3 DK/NA 13 6 12 18 12 14 11 18 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Corzine 57% 39% 28% 44% 25% Christie 24 42 58 40 57 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 2 2 3 DK/NA 17 15 10 12 12 TREND: If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine the Democrat, and Christopher Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote? May 20 Apr 22 Mar 12 Feb 4 Nov 19 Sep 17 Aug 12 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 2008 2008 Corzine 38 38 37 38 42 42 40 Christie 45 45 46 44 36 40 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 3 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 DK/NA 13 14 15 16 18 16 17 4. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine the Democrat and Steve Lonegan the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Corzine 40% 7% 72% 28% 38% 41% 32% 70% Lonegan 42 84 11 46 46 38 51 10 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 1 5 3 3 3 2 DK/NA 14 6 13 19 12 16 12 18 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Corzine 62% 41% 29% 44% 25% Lonegan 21 39 56 37 54 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 2 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 3 3 3 4 DK/NA 15 15 10 15 14 TREND: If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine the Democrat and Steve Lonegan the Republican, for whom would you vote? May 20 Apr 22 Mar 12 Feb 4 2009 2009 2009 2009 Corzine 40 41 41 42 Lonegan 42 41 37 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 3 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 3 1 DK/NA 14 15 16 18 5. Is your opinion of - Christopher Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 33% 56% 14% 39% 41% 26% 39% 18% Unfavorable 11 5 17 9 12 10 11 12 Hvn't hrd enough 54 37 67 50 44 63 49 68 REFUSED 2 1 2 2 3 1 1 2 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Favorable 22% 35% 39% 27% 39% Unfavorable 13 12 9 10 11 Hvn't hrd enough 62 52 50 60 49 REFUSED 2 2 2 3 2 TREND: Is your opinion of - Christopher Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? May 20 Apr 22 Mar 12 Feb 4 Nov 19 Sep 17 Aug 12 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 2008 2008 Favorable 33 31 31 31 22 25 21 Unfavorable 11 11 7 7 6 7 7 Hvn't hrd enough 54 56 61 61 70 67 69 REFUSED 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 6. Is your opinion of -- Steve Lonegan favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 19% 40% 6% 20% 26% 14% 24% 5% Unfavorable 11 8 13 10 12 9 10 10 Hvn't hrd enough 68 51 80 68 60 76 65 83 REFUSED 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Favorable 11% 20% 24% 16% 25% Unfavorable 11 13 11 8 8 Hvn't hrd enough 78 66 63 74 65 REFUSED - 2 2 1 2 TREND: Is your opinion of - Steve Lonegan favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? May 20 Apr 22 Mar 12 Feb 4 2009 2009 2009 2009 Favorable 19 20 15 15 Unfavorable 11 7 7 6 Hvn't hrd enough 68 72 77 78 REFUSED 2 1 1 1 7. Is your opinion of - Jon Corzine favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 37% 11% 62% 29% 35% 38% 32% 59% Unfavorable 51 81 24 58 55 48 59 23 Hvn't hrd enough 8 5 10 9 7 10 6 13 REFUSED 4 2 4 3 3 4 3 5 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Favorable 57% 39% 26% 41% 25% Unfavorable 29 47 66 48 65 Hvn't hrd enough 11 11 5 7 7 REFUSED 3 3 4 5 3 TREND: Is your opinion of - Jon Corzine favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? May 20 Apr 22 Mar 12 Feb 4 Nov 19 Sep 17 Aug 12 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 2008 2008 Favorable 37 39 38 41 42 42 39 Unfavorable 51 50 50 49 43 46 46 Hvn't hrd enough 8 7 9 7 11 9 10 REFUSED 4 4 4 3 4 3 5 8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Corzine is handling his job as Governor? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 38% 14% 63% 29% 36% 40% 33% 61% Disapprove 53 81 27 61 56 50 60 27 DK/NA 9 5 9 10 7 10 6 12 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 59% 40% 29% 40% 27% Disapprove 32 48 65 51 68 DK/NA 8 12 6 9 6 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Corzine is handling his job as Governor? APPROVE....... High Low May 20 Apr 22 Mar 12 Feb 4 Nov 19 Apr 18 Apr 26 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 2007 2006 Approve 38 37 40 41 43 51 35 Disapprove 53 54 50 50 46 36 42 DK/NA 9 8 10 8 11 13 23 9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 28% 14% 45% 20% 25% 31% 25% 44% Disapprove 55 73 34 65 64 47 61 31 DK/NA 17 13 21 15 11 22 14 25 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 42% 28% 23% 29% 21% Disapprove 39 52 64 57 62 DK/NA 20 21 13 14 17 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? APPROVE....... High Low May 20 Apr 22 Mar 12 Feb 4 Nov 19 Jan 26 Jul 14 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 2005 2006 Approve 28 29 30 30 28 44 20 Disapprove 55 57 53 54 51 31 71 DK/NA 17 14 18 16 20 25 10 10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Frank Lautenberg is handling his job as United States Senator? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 46% 22% 66% 40% 44% 47% 44% 58% Disapprove 37 65 11 44 43 31 42 14 DK/NA 18 13 22 15 13 22 13 29 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 54% 47% 37% 48% 41% Disapprove 24 36 46 32 42 DK/NA 22 16 16 20 16 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Frank Lautenberg is handling his job as United States Senator? (*also 55% on 9/23/1999 & 7/22/1999) APPROVE....... High Low May 20 Apr 22 Mar 12 Feb 4 Nov 19 Jul 27 Feb 20 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 2000* 2008 Approve 46 47 47 45 50 55 39 Disapprove 37 38 37 38 36 22 31 DK/NA 18 15 17 16 14 23 29 11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Menendez is handling his job as United States Senator? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 41% 18% 60% 36% 40% 42% 37% 49% Disapprove 32 56 11 38 38 26 37 14 DK/NA 27 26 29 26 22 32 26 37 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 54% 42% 32% 44% 35% Disapprove 21 33 39 26 37 DK/NA 25 25 30 30 28 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Menendez is handling his job as United States Senator? APPROVE....... High Low May 20 Apr 22 Mar 12 Feb 4 Nov 19 Feb 4 Feb 20 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 2009 2008 Approve 41 41 41 42 38 42 30 Disapprove 32 32 33 30 30 30 31 DK/NA 27 26 27 28 32 28 39 12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 67% 32% 93% 63% 61% 72% 60% 95% Disapprove 27 60 4 29 32 23 34 3 DK/NA 6 8 3 7 7 5 6 2 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 79% 68% 58% 69% 62% Disapprove 17 26 36 25 31 DK/NA 4 6 6 6 7 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? May 20 Apr 22 Mar 11 Feb 5 2009 2009 2009 2009 Approve 67 67 61 65 Disapprove 27 24 28 16 DK/NA 6 9 11 19 13. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New Jersey today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Very satisfied 2% 2% 5% 1% 2% 3% 2% 5% Smwht satisfied 33 16 52 25 30 36 30 50 Smwht dissatisfied 31 33 26 35 30 32 32 23 Very dissatisfied 32 48 15 39 37 28 35 19 DK/NA 2 1 2 1 2 2 1 2 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Very satisfied 5% 2% 1% 3% 2% Smwht satisfied 45 36 26 33 26 Smwht dissatisfied 23 32 36 29 31 Very dissatisfied 25 29 36 33 38 DK/NA 2 1 2 2 2 TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New Jersey today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? (*also 71% on 02/12/1999) VERY+SMWHT.... High Low May 20 Apr 22 Mar 11 Feb 4 Sep 17 Dec 26 Jun 16 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 2000* 2006 Very satisfied 2 2 2 2 3 10 3 Smwht satisfied 33 33 32 29 32 61 27 Smwht dissatisfied 31 29 30 36 36 21 37 Very dissatisfied 32 35 35 32 29 7 32 DK/NA 2 1 1 1 - 1 1 14. Looking ahead to the 2009 election for Governor, do you feel that Jon Corzine deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes/Deserves 33% 8% 58% 25% 33% 33% 28% 55% No/Does not 54 87 26 61 57 52 62 23 DK/NA 13 5 16 14 10 15 10 21 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Yes/Deserves 51% 34% 26% 36% 20% No/Does not 34 51 65 51 69 DK/NA 15 14 10 14 12 TREND: Looking ahead to the 2009 election for Governor, do you feel that Jon Corzine deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? DESERVES...... High Low May 20 Mar 12 Feb 4 Nov 19 Sep 17 Dec 11 Feb 20 2009 2009 2008 2008 2008 2007 2008 Yes 33 34 33 37 37 44 32 No 54 53 54 51 50 43 51 DK/NA 13 13 13 12 13 13 17 15. Since Jon Corzine became Governor in January 2006, do you feel that things in New Jersey have gotten better, gotten worse, or stayed about the same? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Better 8% 2% 15% 6% 7% 10% 5% 22% Worse 49 69 29 55 53 45 54 26 The same 39 27 51 36 37 41 38 46 DK/NA 4 2 5 3 2 5 3 5 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Better 16% 8% 5% 11% 4% Worse 31 47 58 48 58 The same 49 42 35 37 33 DK/NA 5 3 2 4 5 TREND: Since Jon Corzine became Governor in January 2006, do you feel that things in New Jersey have gotten better, gotten worse, or stayed about the same? (*also 8% on March 12, 2009 and April 22, 2009) BETTER........ High Low May 20 Apr 22 Mar 12 Feb 4 Nov 19 Feb 28 May 20 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 2007 2009 Better 8 8 8 9 10 20 8 Worse 49 50 47 45 44 15 49 The same 39 37 42 43 43 62 39 DK/NA 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Corzine is handling the economy? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 30% 10% 51% 23% 30% 30% 27% 44% Disapprove 60 82 36 69 63 57 64 39 DK/NA 10 8 14 8 7 13 9 17 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 39% 33% 24% 33% 20% Disapprove 45 57 69 57 69 DK/NA 16 10 7 10 11 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Corzine is handling the economy? May 20 Apr 22 Mar 12 Feb 5 2009 2009 2009 2009 Approve 30 32 31 33 Disapprove 60 58 56 56 DK/NA 10 9 13 11 17. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the economy? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 61% 28% 90% 56% 59% 64% 55% 92% Disapprove 31 65 5 35 36 28 38 4 DK/NA 7 7 5 9 6 9 7 5 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 72% 62% 51% 66% 57% Disapprove 21 30 41 27 35 DK/NA 7 8 8 7 7 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the economy? May 20 Apr 22 Mar 11 Feb 5 2009 2009 2009 2009 Approve 61 62 57 59 Disapprove 31 29 32 21 DK/NA 7 9 12 20 18. Do you think Christopher Christie has enough experience to be governor or not? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 44% 67% 26% 48% 52% 36% 49% 26% No 19 10 25 20 21 18 19 22 DK/NA 37 23 49 32 27 45 32 53 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Yes 32% 45% 47% 39% 51% No 22 20 18 19 18 DK/NA 46 34 35 42 31 19. Do you think Steve Lonegan has enough experience to be governor or not? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 30% 51% 16% 31% 36% 25% 34% 18% No 22 16 24 25 25 19 22 18 DK/NA 48 33 60 44 38 56 43 64 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Yes 26% 29% 31% 28% 35% No 21 24 21 21 22 DK/NA 53 47 48 51 43 20. Do you think Christopher Christie is too liberal, too conservative, or about right? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Liberal 6% 9% 3% 7% 8% 4% 6% 7% Conservative 15 5 20 15 17 13 14 13 About right 40 59 25 44 46 35 44 28 DK/NA 39 26 52 34 30 47 35 52 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Liberal 5% 6% 5% 7% 8% Conservative 16 15 15 15 13 About right 33 39 47 35 44 DK/NA 46 39 33 43 35 21. Do you think Steve Lonegan is too liberal, too conservative, or about right? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Liberal 5% 7% 2% 7% 5% 5% 6% 4% Conservative 16 11 18 18 20 13 16 15 About right 29 45 18 29 33 25 31 18 DK/NA 50 36 61 47 42 57 47 63 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Liberal 4% 6% 5% 4% 6% Conservative 17 18 18 13 14 About right 26 27 30 28 32 DK/NA 53 49 47 56 48
