June 10, 2009 - Christie Has 10-Point Likely Voter Lead In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Corzine Approval Drops To New Low Word format Fresh from his Republican primary victory, former federal prosecutor Christopher Christie leads Democratic incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine 50 - 40 percent among likely voters in the New Jersey Governor's race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This is the first measure of likely voters in this race, a more select group than the registered voters measured in earlier surveys by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. Gov. Corzine leads 73 - 19 percent among Democratic likely voters, while Christie leads 88 - 7 percent among Republicans and 56 - 32 percent among independent voters. Men back Christie 55 - 38 percent, while women give the Republican a 46 - 43 percent edge. All New Jersey registered voters disapprove 56 - 36 percent of the job Corzine is doing, his lowest grade ever and down from a 53 - 38 percent disapproval rating May 20. Voters say 55 - 37 percent that Corzine does not deserve to be reelected. Democrats say four more years 66 - 25 percent, while he gets an 84 - 9 percent thumbs down from Republicans and a 64 - 28 percent boot from independent voters. Things have gotten worse in New Jersey since Corzine became Governor, 52 percent of voters say, the highest measure for this grim outlook. "Don't count Gov. Jon Corzine out just because he trails by 10 points less than five months before Election Day," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "But he certainly has his work cut out for him. Most New Jersey voters say he does not deserve re-election; that things have gotten worse since he became Governor and that personally he is cold and businesslike, not warm and friendly." "But the numbers on which Corzine must focus are the 19 percent of Democrats who are voting for Chris Christie, Christie's 24-point edge among independents, and the 44 percent who say the Governor is not honest and trustworthy - a high number for a New Jersey politician who has never faced any serious corruption charge. Still the biggest thing Corzine needs is a little improvement of the economy - a factor over which he has almost no control," Richards added. A total of 67 percent of New Jersey voters are "somewhat dissatisfied" or "very dissatisfied" with the way things are going in the Garden State, almost matching the all-time high dissatisfaction rate of 69 percent from June 16, 2006. By a 36 - 16 percent margin, New Jersey voters have a favorable opinion of Christie, while 46 percent say they don't know enough to form an opinion. Corzine gets a negative 35 - 53 percent favorability, including 26 - 61 percent from independent voters. Looking at Christie's characteristics, voters say: 48 - 17 percent that he has strong leadership qualities; 42 - 20 percent that he is honest and trustworthy; 44 - 23 percent that he cares about their needs and problems; 33 - 25 percent that he is warm and friendly, not cold and businesslike. Looking at Corzine's characteristics, voters say: 55 - 39 percent that he has strong leadership qualities; 42 - 44 percent that he is honest and trustworthy. Voters say 49 - 43 percent that he does not care about their needs and problems and say 52 - 29 percent that he is cold and businesslike, not warm and friendly. Voter also say 50 - 44 percent that because of his wealth, Corzine is unable to understand average New Jersey residents. In an open-ended question, allowing for any answer, 45 percent of New Jersey voters list taxes as the most important problem in the state, followed by 24 percent who list the economy. New Jersey voters approve 68 - 25 percent of the job President Barack Obama is doing, his highest score so far in the state. From June 3 - 8, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,338 New Jersey registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and nationally as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed: http://ww.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201. 1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine the Democrat, and Christopher Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Corzine or Christie? This table includes "Leaners". LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Corzine 40% 7% 73% 32% 38% 43% 34% 72% Christie 50 88 19 56 55 46 58 18 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 9 4 8 12 7 10 7 10 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Corzine 57% 44% 35% 40% 30% Christie 38 45 59 48 59 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - DK/NA 4 10 5 12 9 TREND: If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine the Democrat, and Christopher Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED VOTERS.................... SMONE WLDN'T JC CC ELSE VOTE DK/NA Jun 10, 2009 37 46 1 2 14 May 20, 2009 38 45 2 2 13 Apr 22, 2009 38 45 2 2 14 Mar 12, 2009 37 46 1 2 15 Feb 4, 2009 38 44 2 1 16 Nov 19, 2008 42 36 3 1 18 Sep 17, 2008 42 40 1 1 16 Aug 12, 2008 40 41 1 2 17 2. Is your opinion of - Christopher Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 36% 65% 16% 39% 43% 30% 42% 20% Unfavorable 16 5 22 14 17 14 15 19 Hvn't hrd enough 46 28 60 45 38 54 42 62 REFUSED 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 - Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Favorable 34% 33% 47% 31% 41% Unfavorable 13 18 17 12 14 Hvn't hrd enough 52 46 34 55 44 REFUSED 1 2 2 1 1 TREND: Is your opinion of - Christopher Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? FAVORABLE..... High Low Jun 10 May 20 Apr 22 Mar 12 Feb 4 Jun 10 Aug 12 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 Favorable 36 33 31 31 31 36 21 Unfavorable 16 11 11 7 7 16 7 Hvn't hrd enough 46 54 56 61 61 46 69 REFUSED 2 2 1 2 1 2 2 3. Is your opinion of - Jon Corzine favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 35% 11% 60% 26% 34% 35% 31% 57% Unfavorable 53 81 25 61 58 48 59 30 Hvn't hrd enough 10 7 13 11 6 14 8 11 REFUSED 2 2 2 3 2 3 3 2 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Favorable 51% 41% 26% 32% 23% Unfavorable 36 48 64 53 63 Hvn't hrd enough 9 9 9 14 10 REFUSED 4 2 1 2 4 TREND: Is your opinion of - Jon Corzine favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? (*also 42% on September 17, 2008) FAVORABLE..... High Low Jun 10 May 20 Apr 22 Mar 12 Feb 4 Nov 19 Jun 10 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008* 2009 Favorable 35 37 39 38 41 42 35 Unfavorable 53 51 50 50 49 43 53 Hvn't hrd enough 10 8 7 9 7 11 10 REFUSED 2 4 4 4 3 4 2 4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Corzine is handling his job as Governor? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 36% 15% 59% 27% 34% 37% 31% 59% Disapprove 56 80 30 63 60 51 62 30 DK/NA 9 5 11 10 5 12 6 11 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 49% 41% 29% 33% 25% Disapprove 44 51 62 56 68 DK/NA 7 8 9 11 7 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Corzine is handling his job as Governor? APPROVE....... DIS.. High Low High Jun 10 May 20 Apr 22 Mar 12 Apr 18 Apr 26 Jun 10 2009 2009 2009 2009 2007 2006 2009 Approve 36 38 37 40 51 35 36 Disapprove 56 53 54 50 36 42 56 DK/NA 9 9 8 10 13 23 9 5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 28% 11% 48% 20% 25% 30% 24% 57% Disapprove 56 75 35 63 65 48 60 36 DK/NA 16 14 17 17 10 22 16 7 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 32% 31% 23% 28% 23% Disapprove 54 52 60 56 62 DK/NA 14 17 17 16 16 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? APPROVE....... DIS.. High Low High Jun 10 May 20 Apr 22 Mar 12 Jan 26 Jul 14 Aug 12 2009 2009 2009 2009 2005 2006 2008 Approve 28 28 29 30 44 20 25 Disapprove 56 55 57 53 31 71 59 DK/NA 16 17 14 18 25 10 16 6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Frank Lautenberg is handling his job as United States Senator? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 44% 26% 64% 39% 42% 47% 42% 59% Disapprove 36 60 17 38 46 28 41 17 DK/NA 19 15 20 22 12 25 17 24 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 47% 47% 37% 45% 45% Disapprove 37 34 45 32 37 DK/NA 16 19 18 23 19 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Frank Lautenberg is handling his job as United States Senator? (*High approve also 55% on 9/23/1999 & 7/22/1999) (**High disapprove also 38% on 2/4/2009) APPROVE....... DIS... High Low High Jun 10 May 20 Apr 22 Mar 12 Jul 27 Feb 20 Apr 22 2009 2009 2009 2009 2000* 2008 2009** Approve 44 46 47 47 55 39 47 Disapprove 36 37 38 37 22 31 38 DK/NA 19 18 15 17 23 29 15 7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Menendez is handling his job as United States Senator? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 40% 20% 59% 36% 39% 41% 35% 63% Disapprove 31 50 15 33 41 23 35 11 DK/NA 28 30 26 31 20 36 30 26 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 53% 45% 32% 38% 33% Disapprove 22 26 42 33 35 DK/NA 25 29 26 29 32 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Menendez is handling his job as United States Senator? APPROVE....... DIS.. High Low High Jun 10 May 20 Apr 22 Mar 12 Feb 4 Feb 20 Jul 9 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 2007 Approve 40 41 41 41 42 30 31 Disapprove 31 32 32 33 30 31 39 DK/NA 28 27 26 27 28 39 31 8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 68% 34% 95% 65% 62% 72% 61% 97% Disapprove 25 56 3 25 30 21 31 2 DK/NA 7 10 2 10 8 7 8 1 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 81% 70% 58% 70% 60% Disapprove 15 23 36 24 28 DK/NA 4 7 5 6 12 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? APPROVE....... DIS.. High Low High Jun 10 May 20 Apr 22 Mar 11 Jun 10 Mar 11 Mar 11 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Approve 68 67 67 61 68 61 61 Disapprove 25 27 24 28 25 28 28 DK/NA 7 6 9 11 7 11 11 9. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New Jersey today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Very satisfied 3% 1% 5% 2% 3% 3% 2% 6% Smwht satisfied 29 13 46 24 24 34 26 43 Smwht dissatisfied 34 29 33 37 32 35 33 38 Very dissatisfied 33 56 14 36 40 27 38 13 DK/NA 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 - Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Very satisfied 2% 4% 2% 2% 3% Smwht satisfied 31 37 25 27 21 Smwht dissatisfied 45 30 32 35 34 Very dissatisfied 21 27 42 34 42 DK/NA - 2 - 2 - TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New Jersey today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? (*also 71% on 02/12/1999) VERY+SMWHT.... High Low Jun 10 May 20 Apr 22 Mar 11 Feb 4 Dec 26 Jun 16 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2000* 2006 Very satisfied 3 2 2 2 2 10 3 Smwht satisfied 29 33 33 32 29 61 27 Smwht dissatisfied 34 31 29 30 36 21 37 Very dissatisfied 33 32 35 35 32 7 32 DK/NA 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 10. Looking ahead to the 2009 election for Governor, do you feel that Jon Corzine deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes/Deserves 37% 9% 66% 28% 36% 38% 31% 64% No/Does not 55 84 25 64 59 51 61 26 DK/NA 8 7 9 8 5 11 8 10 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Yes/Deserves 53% 42% 27% 36% 26% No/Does not 40 49 65 53 68 DK/NA 7 9 8 11 6 TREND: Looking ahead to the 2009 election for Governor, do you feel that Jon Corzine deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? DESERVES...... High Low Jun 10 May 20 Mar 12 Feb 4 Nov 19 Dec 11 Feb 20 2009 2009 2009 2008 2008 2007 2008 Yes/Deserves 37 33 34 33 37 44 32 No/Does not 55 54 53 54 51 43 51 DK/NA 8 13 13 13 12 13 17 11. Since Jon Corzine became Governor in January 2006, do you feel that things in New Jersey have gotten better, gotten worse, or stayed about the same? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Better 8% 2% 14% 5% 6% 9% 5% 21% Worse 52 74 33 55 58 47 59 27 The same 38 23 50 35 36 39 33 49 DK/NA 3 1 3 4 1 5 2 2 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Better 12% 9% 4% 11% 3% Worse 40 45 62 49 65 The same 45 43 33 35 30 DK/NA 3 3 1 4 2 TREND: Since Jon Corzine became Governor in January 2006, do you feel that things in New Jersey have gotten better, gotten worse, or stayed about the same? (*Low also 8% on March 12, 2009 and April 22, 2009) BETTER........ High Low May 20 Apr 22 Mar 12 Feb 4 Nov 19 Feb 28 May 20 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 2007 2009 Better 8 8 8 9 10 20 8 Worse 49 50 47 45 44 15 49 The same 39 37 42 43 43 62 39 DK/NA 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 12. What do you think is the most important problem facing New Jersey today? Tot Taxes Total 45% Taxes general 13 Property tax 31 Income Tax 1 Economy Total 24% Economy general 7 Unemployment/jobs 14 Cost of living 2 Business leaving/ Outsourcing 1 Budget Total 7% Budget general 2 Budget deficits 2 Gov too big/Gov spending 2 Budget priorities 1 Education Total 4% Education general 2 Funding education 2 Politicians Total 3% Political corruption 2 Governor/State leadership 1 Healthcare/ Costs/ Ins/HMO's 2 Drugs 1 Housing general 1 Environment/Pollution 1 Poor conditions roads/highways 1 Other 2% DK/NA 4% 13. Would you say that Jon Corzine - has strong leadership qualities or not? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 55% 36% 75% 48% 53% 57% 51% 80% No 39 58 19 45 44 34 43 18 DK/NA 6 6 5 7 3 9 6 3 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Yes 68% 58% 46% 52% 53% No 28 34 48 41 42 DK/NA 4 7 6 8 5 TREND: Would you say that Jon Corzine - has strong leadership qualities or not? Jun 10 Aug 10 Jun 15 2009 2005 2005 Yes 55 60 61 No 39 18 20 DK/NA 6 22 19 14. Would you say that Jon Corzine - is honest and trustworthy or not? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 42% 21% 63% 36% 45% 40% 40% 58% No 44 66 26 47 46 43 47 30 DK/NA 13 13 11 17 9 17 13 12 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Yes 56% 46% 38% 43% 31% No 37 39 52 43 54 DK/NA 8 16 10 14 15 TREND: Would you say that Jon Corzine - is honest and trustworthy or not? Jun 10 Aug 10 Jun 15 2009 2005 2005 Yes 42 45 50 No 44 25 26 DK/NA 13 30 24 15. Would you say that Jon Corzine - cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 43% 18% 65% 39% 43% 43% 39% 69% No 49 73 27 53 51 48 53 28 DK/NA 8 9 7 8 6 10 8 3 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Yes 62% 46% 34% 41% 34% No 37 46 56 49 58 DK/NA 2 9 9 10 8 TREND: Would you say that Jon Corzine - cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? Jun 10 Aug 10 Jun 15 2009 2005 2005 Yes 43 49 46 No 49 35 35 DK/NA 8 17 19 16. Would you say that Jon Corzine is - warm and friendly or cold and businesslike? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Warm/friendly 29% 13% 46% 22% 27% 30% 25% 52% Cold/businesslike 52 71 37 54 57 47 56 35 DK/NA 19 16 17 24 16 23 19 13 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Warm/friendly 38% 29% 26% 28% 25% Cold/businesslike 51 49 54 50 58 DK/NA 11 22 20 22 17 17. Would you say that Christopher Christie - has strong leadership qualities or not? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 48% 66% 37% 47% 51% 44% 51% 36% No 17 9 23 15 19 15 16 25 DK/NA 36 25 40 38 30 41 33 39 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Yes 46% 45% 52% 43% 54% No 19 17 18 16 15 DK/NA 35 38 30 41 31 18. Would you say that Christopher Christie - is honest and trustworthy or not? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 42% 61% 31% 41% 51% 34% 45% 33% No 20 13 26 17 20 20 19 26 DK/NA 38 26 42 42 28 47 37 41 Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Yes 42% 40% 46% 36% 47% No 20 21 17 21 19 DK/NA 38 39 36 43 34 19. Would you say that Christopher Christie - cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 44% 66% 27% 47% 49% 40% 47% 28% No 23 12 34 20 24 23 21 40 DK/NA 32 22 39 33 27 37 32 32 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Yes 36% 41% 52% 41% 51% No 28 24 22 25 20 DK/NA 36 35 27 34 28 20. Would you say that Christopher Christie is - warm and friendly or cold and businesslike? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Warm/friendly 33% 46% 25% 35% 35% 32% 34% 35% Cold/businesslike 25 20 31 23 29 21 25 34 DK/NA 42 34 45 42 36 47 41 31 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Warm/friendly 31% 31% 34% 35% 36% Cold/businesslike 32 25 26 20 24 DK/NA 36 43 41 45 39 21. Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate for Governor, Jon Corzine or Christopher Christie, do you think would do a better job improving New Jersey's economy? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Corzine 36% 7% 64% 28% 33% 38% 30% 67% Christie 49 81 21 54 56 42 55 22 DK/NA 16 12 15 18 11 20 15 11 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Corzine 52% 40% 26% 39% 24% Christie 34 46 58 42 61 DK/NA 15 15 16 19 15 22. Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate for Governor, Jon Corzine or Christopher Christie, do you think would do a better job handling the state budget? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Corzine 36% 10% 62% 29% 35% 37% 30% 65% Christie 45 77 19 50 52 38 52 21 DK/NA 19 14 20 21 13 25 19 14 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Corzine 53% 39% 27% 37% 26% Christie 28 41 58 40 56 DK/NA 19 20 15 24 18 23. Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate for Governor, Jon Corzine or Christopher Christie, do you think would do a better job reducing property taxes? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Corzine 22% 5% 40% 14% 18% 25% 17% 47% Christie 52 79 32 53 60 46 59 30 DK/NA 26 16 27 33 22 29 24 22 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Corzine 29% 24% 18% 22% 16% Christie 44 49 58 48 62 DK/NA 28 27 25 30 22 24. As you may know, Jon Corzine is a multimillionaire. Do you think his wealth makes him less able to understand the needs and problems of average New Jersey residents or not? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 50% 66% 38% 50% 48% 51% 53% 45% No 44 27 55 46 50 40 42 48 DK/NA 6 6 7 5 3 9 5 7 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Yes 43% 46% 49% 55% 55% No 53 47 45 37 39 DK/NA 4 7 6 7 6
