October 28, 2009 - Corzine Up 5 Points In New Jersey Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Governor Tops Christie On 'Honesty' Score Word format New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine leads Republican challenger Christopher Christie for the first time in their five-month slugfest, on top 43 - 38 percent among likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Independent candidate Christopher Daggett has 13 percent, with 5 percent undecided. This compares to a 41 - 40 percent Christie lead, with 14 percent for Daggett, in an October 14 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. Among Daggett supporters, 38 percent say they might change their mind: 43 percent say Christie is their second choice, while 27 percent say Gov. Corzine is number two. Only 12 percent of Christie voters and 19 percent of Corzine backers say they might change their mind. Corzine leads 79 - 8 percent among Democratic likely voters, with 10 percent for Daggett. Christie leads 79 - 7 percent among Republicans, with 9 percent for Daggett, and 45 - 30 percent among independent voters, with 20 percent for Daggett. New Jersey voters disapprove 54 - 39 percent of the job Corzine is doing, still negative, but his best overall approval rating in months. Independent voters disapprove 68 - 29 percent. "You could see it coming. Gov. Jon Corzine's numbers crept steadily up and Christopher Christie's steadily shrank and now, for the first time, we have Corzine ahead," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "But don't be in a hurry to mark this election as over. Christopher Daggett changed it from 'ABC' - Anybody But Corzine - to a real three-way scrap. But a lot of Daggett's voters say they might change their minds by Election Day. Where will they go?" "Can Daggett win? More than two-thirds of New Jerseyans don't think so," Carroll added. New Jersey voters say 46 - 44 percent that Corzine is honest and trustworthy, his best 'honesty' score in months and the first time the score has been positive this year. These same voters split on Christie, with 37 percent saying he is honest and trustworthy and 39 percent saying he is not. This is Christie's worst score on this question. Property taxes will go up if Corzine is elected, 60 percent of voters say, while 2 percent say they will go down and 34 percent say they will stay the same. If Christie is elected, property taxes will go up, 37 percent of voters say, while 12 percent say they will go down and 44 percent say they will stay the same. Of the 90 percent of New Jersey voters who have seen Corzine's TV ads: 14 percent say the ads make them more likely to vote for the Governor; 31 percent say less likely; 54 percent say the ads won't affect their vote; 66 percent find the ads annoying; 29 percent say the ads are informative. Of the 86 percent of New Jersey voters who have seen Christie's TV ads: 17 percent say the ads make them more likely to vote for the challenger; 28 percent say less likely; 53 percent say the ads won't affect their vote; 58 percent find the ads annoying; 35 percent say the ads are informative. "The drumbeat of denunciation has dropped Christie down to Corzine's negative level in the favorable-unfavorable match. And it's produced a reversal on 'honest and trustworthy.' Corzine comes out plus; Christie tips to a minus," Carroll said. "Everyone says negative advertising is bad, but everybody watches it. Virtually every New Jersey voter has seen the Corzine and Christie ads and most think that they're more annoying than informative." From October 20 - 26, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,267 New Jersey likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and nationally as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine the Democrat, Christopher Christie the Republican, and Christopher Daggett the independent, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Corzine, Christie, or Daggett? This table includes "Leaners". LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Corzine 43% 7% 79% 30% 34% 51% Christie 38 79 8 45 46 31 Daggett 13 9 10 20 15 12 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 5 4 3 5 4 5 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Corzine 61% 48% 25% 51% 26% Christie 24 34 50 31 56 Daggett 10 15 18 12 9 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - DK/NA 5 3 6 5 8 TREND: If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine the Democrat, Christopher Christie the Republican, and Christopher Daggett the independent, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Corzine, Christie, or Daggett? This table includes Leaners. LIKELY VOTERS................................. Oct 28 Oct 14 Sep 30 Sep 1 Aug 11 Jul 14 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Corzine 43 40 39 37 40 38 Christie 38 41 43 47 46 47 Daggett 13 14 12 9 7 8 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 5 5 6 6 6 7 INDEPENDENT LIKELY VOTERS..................... Oct 28 Oct 14 Sep 30 Sep 1 Aug 11 Jul 14 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Corzine 30 32 32 30 25 24 Christie 45 41 45 46 55 54 Daggett 20 20 16 16 13 13 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 5 8 7 8 7 9 1a. (If candidate choice given q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS......................... CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN Q1............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Made up 81% 86% 79% 79% 82% 80% Might change 19 13 21 20 18 20 DK/NA - 1 - 1 - 1 CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN CAND CHOICE Q1.... Tot Corz Chris Dagg Made up 81% 80% 88% 60% Might change 19 19 12 38 DK/NA - - - 1 TREND: Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS Oct 28 Oct 14 2009 2009 Made up 81 72 Might change 19 27 DK/NA - 1 1b. (If Daggett voter q1) Who is your second choice for governor? LIKELY VOTERS DAGGETT VOTERS Q1 Corzine 27% Christie 43 Someone else 4 No one/Wouldn't vote 18 DK/NA 9 TREND: (If Daggett voter q1) Who is your second choice for governor? LIKELY VOTERS DAGGETT VOTERS Q1 Oct 28 Oct 14 2009 2009 Corzine 27 33 Christie 43 40 Someone else 4 4 No one/WLDN'T VOTE 18 13 DK/NA 9 10 2. Is your opinion of - Christopher Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 37% 74% 10% 41% 44% 30% Unfavorable 42 12 63 39 37 47 Hvn't hrd enough 18 12 23 18 16 19 REFUSED 4 2 5 2 3 4 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Favorable 25% 34% 45% 31% 50% Unfavorable 46 48 37 45 29 Hvn't hrd enough 24 15 14 21 19 REFUSED 5 3 4 4 2 TREND: Is your opinion of - Christopher Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS................................. Oct 28 Oct 14 Sep 30 Sep 1 Aug 11 Jul 14 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Favorable 37 38 38 41 42 39 Unfavorable 42 40 38 30 26 20 Hvn't hrd enough 18 20 22 27 30 40 REFUSED 4 2 2 2 3 1 3. Is your opinion of - Jon Corzine favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 41% 8% 72% 29% 34% 47% Unfavorable 52 88 18 67 58 46 Hvn't hrd enough 5 2 7 2 5 4 REFUSED 3 1 3 2 3 3 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Favorable 57% 44% 25% 48% 28% Unfavorable 32 48 70 42 67 Hvn't hrd enough 6 5 2 8 3 REFUSED 5 3 3 1 2 TREND: Is your opinion of - Jon Corzine favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS................................. Oct 28 Oct 14 Sep 30 Sep 1 Aug 11 Jul 14 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Favorable 41 40 34 34 37 34 Unfavorable 52 53 56 57 54 58 Hvn't hrd enough 5 4 6 6 6 6 REFUSED 3 3 4 3 2 2 4. Is your opinion of - Christopher Daggett favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 21% 18% 16% 30% 21% 21% Unfavorable 16 24 10 17 19 13 Hvn't hrd enough 61 54 72 50 58 63 REFUSED 3 4 2 3 2 3 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Favorable 13% 22% 30% 16% 21% Unfavorable 15 15 20 12 18 Hvn't hrd enough 69 62 45 71 56 REFUSED 4 1 5 1 5 TREND: Is your opinion of - Christopher Daggett favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS................................. Oct 28 Oct 14 Sep 30 Sep 1 Aug 11 Jul 14 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Favorable 21 19 11 8 4 5 Unfavorable 16 7 3 4 3 2 Hvn't hrd enough 61 73 84 87 92 92 REFUSED 3 1 1 1 1 1 5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Corzine is handling his job as governor? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 39% 10% 70% 29% 34% 44% Disapprove 54 88 21 68 62 47 DK/NA 6 2 10 3 3 9 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 56% 45% 24% 43% 25% Disapprove 37 49 70 51 69 DK/NA 6 6 6 6 6 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Corzine is handling his job as governor? LIKELY VOTERS................................. Oct 28 Oct 14 Sep 30 Sep 1 Aug 11 Jul 14 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Approve 39 39 36 34 36 33 Disapprove 54 56 58 60 58 60 DK/NA 6 5 7 6 6 7 6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 26% 5% 44% 20% 22% 30% Disapprove 61 85 38 70 69 54 DK/NA 13 10 17 10 9 16 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 31% 29% 14% 34% 19% Disapprove 52 58 75 51 70 DK/NA 17 12 11 15 11 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Oct 28 Oct 15 Sep 30 Sep 1 Aug 11 Jul 14 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Approve 26 25 24 25 23 27 Disapprove 61 62 61 64 63 59 DK/NA 13 13 15 11 15 13 7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 55% 19% 87% 46% 47% 61% Disapprove 39 75 8 46 47 33 DK/NA 6 6 5 7 6 6 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 73% 59% 39% 59% 41% Disapprove 26 35 53 35 51 DK/NA 1 6 8 6 8 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Oct 28 Oct 15 Sep 30 Sep 1 Jul 14 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Approve 55 55 56 51 60 Disapprove 39 40 39 43 34 DK/NA 6 5 5 6 6 8. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New Jersey today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Very satisfied 3% - 7% 2% 2% 4% Smwht satisfied 28 11 47 19 26 30 Smwht dissatisfied 33 36 31 33 31 34 Very dissatisfied 35 53 14 46 39 32 DK/NA 1 - 2 - 1 - Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Very satisfied 3% 5% 1% 3% 2% Smwht satisfied 35 32 17 34 20 Smwht dissatisfied 36 32 42 24 30 Very dissatisfied 23 31 40 38 47 DK/NA 3 - 1 - 1 TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New Jersey today? Are you very satisified, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? LIKELY VOTERS................................. Oct 28 Oct 15 Sep 30 Sep 1 Aug 11 Sep 28 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2005 Very satisfied 3 3 2 2 4 3 Smwht satisfied 28 29 30 28 29 34 Smwhat dissatisfied 33 30 33 32 30 33 Very dissatisfied 35 37 34 37 36 28 DK/NA 1 - - 1 1 - 9. Would you say that Jon Corzine is honest and trustworthy or not? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 46% 17% 71% 40% 42% 49% No 44 75 20 51 51 39 DK/NA 10 8 9 9 7 12 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Yes 57% 51% 35% 49% 34% No 31 42 54 38 59 DK/NA 12 7 11 13 7 TREND: Would you say that Jon Corzine is honest and trustworthy or not? LIKELY VOTERS................................. Oct 28 Oct 14 Sep 30 Sep 1 Oct 19 Sep 28 2009 2009 2009 2009 2005 2005 Yes 46 45 44 40 53 55 No 44 48 45 51 29 25 DK/NA 10 7 11 10 18 20 10. Would you say that Christopher Christie is honest and trustworthy or not? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 37% 66% 18% 41% 45% 30% No 39 15 54 38 35 43 DK/NA 24 18 28 21 20 27 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Yes 29% 37% 43% 33% 44% No 46 40 35 41 34 DK/NA 25 23 22 26 23 TREND: Would you say that Christopher Christie is honest and trustworthy or not? LIKELY VOTERS................ Oct 28 Oct 14 Sep 30 Sep 1 2009 2009 2009 2009 Yes 37 42 37 44 No 39 40 36 31 DK/NA 24 18 27 25 11. Would you say that Christopher Daggett is honest and trustworthy or not? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 29% 29% 22% 39% 32% 26% No 14 15 15 12 14 14 DK/NA 57 56 63 50 54 60 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Yes 23% 28% 36% 24% 35% No 20 12 14 12 14 DK/NA 57 60 50 64 51 TREND: Would you say that Christopher Daggett is honest and trustworthy or not? LIKELY VOTERS Oct 28 Oct 14 2009 2009 Yes 29 29 No 14 8 DK/NA 57 63 12. If Jon Corzine is reelected governor, do you think property taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Go up 60% 84% 38% 68% 67% 54% Go down 2 2 3 1 1 3 Stay about same 34 13 54 29 29 39 DK/NA 3 1 4 2 3 3 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Go up 52% 58% 71% 55% 66% Go down 7 2 1 - 1 Stay about same 37 38 26 39 29 DK/NA 5 2 2 5 3 TREND: If Jon Corzine is reelected governor, do you think property taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same? LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 28 Oct 14 Sep 30 2009 2009 2009 Go up 60 62 61 Go down 2 5 3 Stay about same 34 30 32 DK/NA 3 3 4 13. If Christopher Christie is elected governor, do you think property taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Go up 37% 17% 49% 38% 34% 39% Go down 12 25 4 12 14 11 Stay about same 44 54 37 45 47 41 DK/NA 8 4 10 6 5 10 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Go up 44% 38% 32% 41% 28% Go down 7 10 12 14 20 Stay about same 40 44 51 37 44 DK/NA 9 8 5 8 8 TREND: If Christopher Christie is elected governor, do you think property taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same? LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 28 Oct 14 Sep 30 2009 2009 2009 Go up 37 35 34 Go down 12 16 9 Stay about same 44 40 46 DK/NA 8 8 11 14. If Christopher Daggett is elected governor, do you think property taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Go up 39% 41% 38% 37% 39% 39% Go down 6 7 3 8 7 5 Stay about same 32 29 32 36 35 29 DK/NA 23 23 27 19 19 28 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Go up 39% 40% 37% 37% 40% Go down 5 5 7 3 9 Stay about same 31 33 34 30 31 DK/NA 25 22 21 30 20 TREND: If Christopher Daggett is elected governor, do you think property taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same? LIKELY VOTERS Oct 28 Oct 14 2009 2009 Go up 39 22 Go down 6 11 Stay about the same 32 32 DK/NA 23 35 15. Have you seen any of Jon Corzine's television advertisements for this year's election for governor? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 90% 90% 90% 92% 89% 91% No 10 10 9 8 11 8 DK/NA - - - - - - Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Yes 91% 94% 88% 83% 92% No 9 6 12 17 8 DK/NA - - - - - 16. (If yes q15) Do they make you more likely to vote for Jon Corzine, less likely to vote for Jon Corzine, or don't they make a difference? LIKELY VOTERS......................... SEEN CORZINE ADS...................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom More likely 14% 2% 27% 6% 9% 17% Less likely 31 53 9 43 38 25 Don't make diff 54 44 62 50 52 57 DK/NA 1 - 1 1 1 1 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore More likely 22% 14% 5% 15% 11% Less likely 22 28 45 28 37 Don't make diff 55 57 49 57 50 DK/NA - 1 - 1 2 17. (If yes q15) From what you have seen of Jon Corzine's television ads, are they more informative or more annoying? LIKELY VOTERS......................... SEEN CORZINE ADS...................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Informative 29% 11% 53% 14% 23% 33% Annoying 66 86 41 82 73 60 DK/NA 5 3 7 4 4 7 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Informative 50% 29% 12% 35% 20% Annoying 45 67 82 59 75 DK/NA 5 5 6 6 5 18. Have you seen any of Christopher Christie's television advertisements for this year's election for governor? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 86% 90% 82% 91% 86% 86% No 13 10 16 9 13 13 DK/NA 1 - 2 - 1 1 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Yes 82% 89% 87% 78% 91% No 16 10 13 20 9 DK/NA 2 1 - 2 - 19. (If yes q18) Do they make you more likely to vote for Christopher Christie, less likely to vote for Christopher Christie, or don't they make a difference? LIKELY VOTERS......................... SEEN CHRISTIE ADS..................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom More likely 17% 35% 6% 15% 20% 14% Less likely 28 10 42 28 19 37 Don't make diff 53 54 52 56 59 48 DK/NA 1 2 1 1 1 1 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore More likely 13% 18% 15% 15% 22% Less likely 37 29 30 25 23 Don't make diff 50 52 53 59 55 DK/NA - 1 2 - 1 20. (If yes q18) From what you have seen of Christopher Christie's television ads, are they more informative or more annoying? LIKELY VOTERS......................... SEEN CHRISTIE ADS..................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Informative 35% 59% 20% 35% 41% 30% Annoying 58 34 75 57 52 63 DK/NA 7 8 5 8 7 7 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Informative 32% 35% 33% 36% 39% Annoying 60 61 58 62 47 DK/NA 8 4 8 2 14 21. Some people say that Christopher Daggett has no chance of winning the election for governor because he is a third-party candidate. Do you agree or disagree? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Agree 68% 75% 62% 71% 76% 61% Disagree 27 21 30 28 23 32 DK/NA 4 4 8 1 2 7 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Agree 63% 64% 79% 65% 75% Disagree 29 30 20 31 24 DK/NA 8 6 1 4 2 TREND: Some people say that Christopher Daggett has no chance of winning the election for governor because he is a third-party candidate. Do you agree or disagree? LIKELY VOTERS Oct 28 Oct 14 2009 2009 Agree 68 77 Disagree 27 19 DK/NA 4 3
