April 12, 2012 - Obama Tops Romney-Christie In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Mendendez Has 9-Point Lead Over Little Known Opponent Word format President Barack Obama leads former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney 49 - 40 percent in the New Jersey presidential race, a lead that shrinks to 49 - 42 percent if Gov. Christopher Christie runs as Romney's vice presidential pick, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. There is a large gender gap with or without Gov. Christie on the ticket. Men would vote for a Romney-Christie ticket 50 - 42 percent, while women would vote for President Obama and Vice President Joseph Biden 55 - 35 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Independent voters split 42 - 42 percent. White voters back the Republican ticket 52 - 39 percent, while black voters go Democratic 89 - 6 percent. "It's pretty much all over but the shouting in the Republican presidential primaries, but if Gov. Mitt Romney owns New Jersey in June, President Barack Obama takes command in November. This still looks like a reliably blue state," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Gov. Christopher Christie on the GOP ticket as vice-presidential candidate barely trims the Democratic edge. If Christie went all out as a candidate, could he switch the state to his party? The numbers show he'd have to go into overdrive, especially among women and black voters. "Almost half the state's voters, 47 percent, think it's very likely or somewhat likely Christie will be tapped as VP - but 65 percent agree with his own assessment that he's not right for the job." New Jersey voters give Obama a 51 - 46 percent job approval and say 51 - 46 percent he deserves reelection. Voters, 52 - 43 percent, have a favorable opinion of the president. Romney has a split 39 - 37 percent favorability rating. U.S. Senate Race New Jersey voters approve 45 - 31 percent of the job U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez is doing and say 43 - 34 percent that he deserves reelection. Menendez leads his little-known Republican challenger, State Sen. Joseph Kyrillos, 44 - 35 percent, with support of 79 - 5 percent among Democrats and a slight 38 - 34 percent edge among independent voters. Republicans back Kyrillos 78 - 8 percent. By a 35 - 27 percent margin, voters have a favorable opinion of Menendez, with 37 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion. For Kyrillos, 79 percent don't know enough about him to form an opinion. "U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez vs. State Sen. Joseph Kyrillos? At this stage, a single-digit lead for Menendez," Carroll said. "No one knows Kyrillos, but Menendez's numbers are lackluster, to say the least. "This race could get interesting." With 51 percent of Republican voters, Romney leads the GOP presidential primary survey, concluded before former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania suspended his campaign. Santorum is at 14 percent with 9 percent for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Texas U.S Rep. Ron Paul with 7 percent. From April 3 - 9, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,607 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The survey includes 513 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percent. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were: Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum and Ron Paul, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED REPUBLICANS.................................... TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Gingrich 9% 9% 8% 11% 4% 18% 6% Romney 51 54 48 53 57 47 54 Santorum 14 14 13 16 11 19 12 Paul 7 8 7 6 8 5 9 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 5 2 6 - 6 DK/NA 14 9 19 12 12 9 13 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME Yes No 18-49 50-64 65+ <50K 50-100 >100K Gingrich 7% 10% 6% 10% 10% 5% 15% 7% Romney 57 49 45 55 60 49 52 56 Santorum 11 15 16 12 12 12 13 16 Paul 11 5 8 8 3 9 6 7 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 2 2 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 5 2 6 4 3 7 DK/NA 9 16 19 13 7 18 11 8 TREND: (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were: Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum and Ron Paul, for whom would you vote? (2011 wording referenced "2012 election") REGISTERED REPUBLICANS................ Apr 12 Feb 29 Jan 18 Nov 16 Oct 13 2012 2012 2012 2011 2011 Gingrich 9 9 14 22 5 Romney 51 38 40 29 28 Santorum 14 24 14 1 1 Paul 7 12 12 6 11 Bachmann na na na 3 4 Cain na na na 12 17 Huntsman na na 4 4 2 Perry na na 2 3 7 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 - 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 3 2 2 DK/NA 14 11 13 16 18 2. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were, Barack Obama the Democrat and - Rick Santorum the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 51% 8% 91% 48% 45% 56% 42% 91% Santorum 36 83 5 32 41 31 45 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 - 3 3 1 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 2 1 7 5 3 5 2 DK/NA 7 4 3 10 6 8 7 5 WHITE............................................... COLLEGE DEG BrnAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Obama 51% 36% 34% 34% 37% 47% 25% 37% Santorum 38 49 52 52 50 40 61 49 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 3 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 5 4 6 5 4 4 6 DK/NA 5 8 9 6 5 8 10 7 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME Yes No 18-34 35-54 55+ <50K 50-100 100-250 >250 Obama 56% 48% 58% 51% 48% 52% 49% 54% 60% Santorum 34 37 30 37 38 34 35 38 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 2 4 5 3 6 2 2 DK/NA 4 9 10 6 7 9 8 4 1 TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Rick Santorum the Republican, for whom would you vote? Apr 12 Feb 29 2012 2012 Obama 51 52 Santorum 36 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 DK/NA 7 8 3. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were, Barack Obama the Democrat and - Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 49% 5% 91% 44% 42% 55% 39% 88% Romney 40 89 4 39 47 34 50 5 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 - 2 2 1 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 - 4 3 2 3 - DK/NA 7 3 5 10 7 8 6 6 WHITE............................................... COLLEGE DEG BrnAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Obama 48% 34% 32% 32% 34% 44% 27% 34% Romney 45 53 56 57 56 44 61 55 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 5 3 3 3 6 3 DK/NA 4 8 5 6 6 7 4 7 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME Yes No 18-34 35-54 55+ <50K 50-100 100-250 >250 Obama 53% 46% 51% 49% 47% 50% 49% 50% 49% Romney 39 41 35 41 42 37 39 43 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 2 1 2 2 1 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 1 DK/NA 5 9 10 7 6 9 8 4 6 TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? (2011 wording referenced "2012 election") Apr 12 Feb 29 Jan 18 Nov 16 Oct 13 2012 2012 2012 2011 2011 Obama 49 49 48 49 47 Romney 40 39 38 40 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 4 4 3 3 DK/NA 7 7 9 7 7 4. Let's say the Democratic ticket is Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president and the Republican ticket is Mitt Romney for president and Christopher Christie for vice president. If you were voting today, how would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama/Biden 49% 6% 91% 42% 42% 55% 39% 89% Romney/Christie 42 90 6 42 50 35 52 6 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 1 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - - 4 1 2 2 - DK/NA 6 3 2 9 6 6 5 5 WHITE............................................... COLLEGE DEG BrnAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Obama/Biden 48% 34% 32% 35% 33% 46% 24% 36% Romney/Christie 47 55 58 58 59 45 63 56 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 2 1 2 1 5 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 3 3 2 2 3 5 2 DK/NA 4 6 5 5 5 5 3 5 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME Yes No 18-34 35-54 55+ <50K 50-100 100-250 >250 Obama/Biden 52% 47% 54% 49% 47% 51% 49% 51% 46% Romney/Christie 42 43 36 44 44 39 42 44 49 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 1 2 2 2 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 1 - DK/NA 4 7 7 5 6 7 5 4 5 TREND: Let's say the Democratic ticket is Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president and the Republican ticket is Mitt Romney for president and Christopher Christie for vice president. If you were voting today, how would you vote? Apr 12 Feb 29 2012 2012 Obama/Biden 49 49 Romney/Christie 42 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 DK/NA 6 5 5. Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 52% 8% 94% 48% 44% 60% 43% 90% Unfavorable 43 89 5 46 51 37 53 7 Hvn't hrd enough 2 2 - 3 3 2 2 2 REFUSED 2 2 - 4 2 2 2 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? FAVORABLE..... High Low Apr 12 Nov 16 Oct 13 Nov 19 Jun 12 Nov 19 Jan 25 2012 2011 2011 2008 2008 2008 2007 Favorable 52 50 47 64 56 64 41 Unfavorable 43 44 47 21 32 21 9 Hvn't hrd enough 2 3 3 11 11 11 49 REFUSED 2 2 4 4 2 4 1 6. Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 39% 70% 13% 41% 45% 33% 45% 16% Unfavorable 37 11 59 36 34 39 36 53 Hvn't hrd enough 21 17 24 20 18 24 17 26 REFUSED 3 1 4 3 3 4 3 5 TREND: Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Apr 12 Nov 16 Oct 13 Sep 26 Jul 5 Apr 19 Jan 25 2012 2011 2011 2007 2007 2007 2007 Favorable 39 39 35 22 16 16 11 Unfavorable 37 29 31 27 20 16 12 Hvn't hrd enough 21 30 32 49 63 65 76 REFUSED 3 2 1 2 2 3 1 7. Is your opinion of Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 28% 52% 9% 29% 32% 24% 33% 11% Unfavorable 42 18 58 47 42 43 41 52 Hvn't hrd enough 28 28 29 22 24 31 24 34 REFUSED 2 2 3 2 1 3 2 4 8. How likely do you think it is that Christopher Christie will be selected by the Republican Presidential nominee to be their Vice-Presidential running mate; very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely, or not likely at all? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Very likely 11% 12% 11% 10% 12% 10% 11% 12% Smwht likely 36 44 35 34 34 38 38 25 Not very likely 26 31 23 25 29 24 29 18 Not likely at all 21 11 23 26 21 21 19 39 DK/NA 5 2 8 4 4 7 4 7 TREND: How likely do you think it is that Christopher Christie will be selected by the Republican Presidential nominee to be their Vice-Presidential running mate; very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely, or not likely at all? Apr 12 Jan 18 Oct 12 Jun 21 2012 2012 2011 2011 Very likely 11 16 10 10 Somewhat likely 36 39 35 33 Not very likely 26 24 28 28 Not likely at all 21 18 24 24 DK/NA 5 4 3 5 9. Christie says that he doesn't have the right kind of personality to be Vice President. Do you agree or disagree with Christie? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Agree 65% 47% 76% 69% 63% 67% 65% 74% Disagree 30 49 20 26 33 26 31 22 DK/NA 5 4 5 5 4 6 4 4 TREND: Christie says that he doesn't have the right kind of personality to be Vice President. Do you agree or disagree with Christie? Apr 12 Jan 18 Oct 12 2012 2012 2011 Agree 65 68 74 Disagree 30 26 19 DK/NA 5 6 7 10. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Robert Menendez the Democrat and Joe Kyrillos the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Menendez 44% 8% 79% 38% 40% 47% 38% 65% Kyrillos 35 78 5 34 43 28 43 8 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 - 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 2 3 1 3 2 4 DK/NA 18 13 14 24 15 21 17 23 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Menendez 58% 47% 33% 42% 35% Kyrillos 19 34 43 31 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 3 2 1 DK/NA 19 16 19 23 16 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME Yes No 18-34 35-54 55+ <50K 50-100 100-250 >250 Menendez 45% 43% 41% 42% 47% 44% 45% 46% 36% Kyrillos 36 35 28 37 37 31 36 35 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 2 3 3 1 2 DK/NA 16 20 29 19 13 22 15 18 18 TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Robert Menendez the Democrat and Joe Kyrillos the Republican, for whom would you vote? Apr 12 Feb 29 2012 2012 Menendez 44 49 Kyrillos 35 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 DK/NA 18 14 11. Is your opinion of Robert Menendez favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 35% 9% 60% 32% 34% 37% 32% 41% Unfavorable 27 49 4 31 36 18 32 6 Hvn't hrd enough 37 41 35 35 30 44 35 50 REFUSED 1 - 1 2 1 1 1 3 TREND: Is your opinion of Robert Menendez favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Apr 12 Feb 29 2012 2012 Favorable 35 38 Unfavorable 27 24 Hvn't hrd enough 37 36 REFUSED 1 2 12. Is your opinion of Joe Kyrillos favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 14% 25% 6% 14% 18% 11% 16% 10% Unfavorable 6 2 11 4 8 5 5 9 Hvn't hrd enough 79 72 83 81 74 84 78 81 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 1 - 1 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Joe Kyrillos favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Apr 12 Feb 29 2012 2012 Favorable 14 11 Unfavorable 6 6 Hvn't hrd enough 79 82 REFUSED 1 1 16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Menendez is handling his job as United States Senator? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 45% 20% 70% 42% 42% 47% 41% 51% Disapprove 31 56 9 35 40 23 36 14 DK/NA 24 24 21 23 17 29 22 35 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 58% 47% 37% 43% 39% Disapprove 23 32 37 30 34 DK/NA 19 21 26 27 27 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME Yes No 18-34 35-54 55+ <50K 50-100 100-250 >250 Approve 45% 45% 42% 43% 49% 47% 48% 43% 35% Disapprove 32 31 21 33 34 26 34 35 38 DK/NA 23 24 36 25 17 27 19 23 27 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Menendez is handling his job as United States Senator? APPROVE....... High Low Apr 12 Feb 29 Jan 18 Nov 16 Oct 13 Feb 29 Feb 20 2012 2012 2012 2011 2011 2012 2008 Approve 45 48 42 43 42 48 30 Disapprove 31 31 39 34 35 31 31 DK/NA 24 21 20 23 23 21 39 17. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Frank Lautenberg is handling his job as United States Senator? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 46% 25% 68% 44% 44% 49% 45% 52% Disapprove 34 56 11 39 42 26 39 18 DK/NA 20 19 21 18 14 25 15 30 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 56% 51% 38% 38% 43% Disapprove 23 33 42 34 38 DK/NA 21 15 20 29 19 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME Yes No 18-34 35-54 55+ <50K 50-100 100-250 >250 Approve 47% 46% 43% 48% 46% 46% 52% 48% 47% Disapprove 35 33 20 35 39 29 35 36 35 DK/NA 19 20 37 17 15 26 13 16 18 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Frank Lautenberg is handling his job as United States Senator? (*High approve also 55% Sep 1999 & Jul 1999) APPROVE....... High Low Apr 12 Feb 29 Jan 18 Nov 16 Oct 13 Jul 27 Feb 20 2012 2012 2012 2011 2011 2000* 2008 Approve 46 49 42 45 46 55 39 Disapprove 34 36 43 38 37 22 31 DK/NA 20 15 15 17 17 23 29 18. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 51% 11% 91% 46% 44% 58% 43% 85% Disapprove 46 88 7 50 54 38 55 8 DK/NA 3 1 2 4 2 4 2 7 WHITE............................................... COLLEGE DEG BrnAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Approve 49% 39% 38% 37% 37% 49% 34% 39% Disapprove 49 59 60 62 62 49 65 59 DK/NA 2 2 2 2 1 2 1 2 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME Yes No 18-34 35-54 55+ <50K 50-100 100-250 >250 Approve 54% 50% 60% 49% 50% 55% 53% 52% 50% Disapprove 43 47 37 48 48 42 46 45 46 DK/NA 3 3 3 3 2 3 1 3 5 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? APPROVE....... High Low Apr 12 Feb 29 Jan 18 Nov 16 Oct 13 Jun 10 Oct 13 2012 2012 2012 2011 2011 2009 2011 Approve 51 51 49 48 43 68 43 Disapprove 46 45 48 48 52 25 52 DK/NA 3 4 3 5 5 7 5 20. Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes/Deserves 51% 7% 91% 46% 43% 58% 41% 90% No/Does not 46 92 6 49 54 38 56 8 DK/NA 3 1 3 5 2 4 3 2 WHITE............................................... COLLEGE DEG BrnAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Yes/Deserves 48% 37% 36% 34% 35% 47% 29% 37% No/Does not 49 60 60 63 63 49 68 61 DK/NA 3 3 4 2 2 4 3 3 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME Yes No 18-34 35-54 55+ <50K 50-100 100-250 >250 Yes/Deserves 52% 50% 57% 49% 49% 54% 50% 50% 50% No/Does not 44 47 38 49 48 42 48 48 48 DK/NA 3 3 4 2 3 4 2 2 2 TREND: Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? Apr 12 Feb 29 Jan 18 Nov 16 Oct 13 Aug 17 2012 2012 2012 2011 2011 2011 Yes/Deserves 51 51 49 50 47 45 No/Does not 46 44 46 45 48 49 DK/NA 3 5 6 5 5 6 21. Do you feel that Robert Menendez deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes/Deserves 43% 15% 71% 39% 39% 46% 38% 58% No/Does not 34 65 7 37 45 25 40 13 DK/NA 23 20 21 23 16 29 22 29 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Yes/Deserves 57% 44% 36% 42% 35% No/Does not 24 36 41 30 38 DK/NA 19 20 23 28 27 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME Yes No 18-34 35-54 55+ <50K 50-100 100-250 >250 Yes/Deserves 43% 42% 39% 41% 46% 44% 44% 44% 33% No/Does not 35 34 26 37 36 29 37 38 40 DK/NA 22 24 35 22 18 28 19 18 27 TREND: Do you feel that Robert Menendez deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? Apr 12 Feb 29 Jan 18 Nov 16 Oct 13 Aug 17 2012 2012 2012 2011 2011 2011 Yes/Deserves 43 48 45 44 40 41 No/Does not 34 34 38 37 38 43 DK/NA 23 19 17 20 21 16 Demographic Summary
