July 18, 2012 - Menendez Opens 13-Point Lead In New Jersey Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Women Give Obama A Total 11-Point Lead Over Romney Word format New Jersey voters give Democratic U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez a 46 - 32 percent approval rating and a 47 - 34 percent lead over State Sen. Joseph Kyrillos, the Republican challenger, his biggest lead in months, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This compares to a 45 - 35 percent lead in a May 16 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll. Today, Menendez leads 82 - 4 percent among Democrats and 44 - 33 percent among independent voters, while Kyrillos leads 77 - 10 percent among Republicans. The Democrat leads 43 - 38 percent among men and 52 - 30 percent among women. He leads in every section of the state except the shore areas, where Monmouth County's Kyrillos is ahead 44 - 35 percent. Rural voters are divided 41 - 42 percent. Menendez has a 37 - 25 percent favorability rating, with 36 percent who haven't heard enough about him to form an opinion. For Kyrillos, 72 percent haven't heard enough about him to form an opinion. "Sen. Robert Menendez is close to the magic 50 percent mark, and has a comfortable double-digit lead over the little-known State Sen. Joseph Kyrillos," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Sen. Kyrillos could be looking at that 13-point hole and thinking about what Mercutio said in Romeo & Juliet: 'Tis not so deep as a well, nor so wide as a church door; but 'tis enough, 'twill serve.' "And Menendez is running as well in his race as President Barack Obama is doing against Gov. Mitt Romney." New Jersey voters give President Barack Obama a 49 - 38 percent lead over Mitt Romney. Democrats back Obama 89 - 3 percent while Romney leads 86 - 7 percent among Republicans. Independent voters tip to Obama 43 - 39 percent. Men split 44 - 43 percent while women back Obama 53 - 33 percent. Voters under 35 years old back Obama 64 - 23 percent while voters 35 to 54 years old go Democratic 49 - 36 percent and voters over 55 split 44 - 45 percent. Obama gets a 51 - 45 percent job approval rating and a 52 - 42 percent favorability rating. Romney gets a negative 35 - 43 percent favorability rating. "Scratch New Jersey off any swing state lists. President Barack Obama leads Gov. Mitt Romney by double-digits," Carroll said. "Demographics are destiny. Young folks like Obama a lot, 41 points worth, and Romney doesn't catch up with older voters. Black voters like Obama 87 - 6 percent; white voters pick Romney 46 - 39 percent." New Jersey voters split on whether Congress should repeal the Affordable Care Act (ACA), with 47 percent for keeping the law and 45 percent for repeal. Voters agree 49 - 45 percent with the U.S. Supreme Court decision to uphold ACA. And voters say 54 - 38 percent that New Jersey should expand its Medicaid program to cover more low-income uninsured adults, as provided by ACA. It would be better if the governor and State Legislature created a statewide health care exchange, as provided by ACA, 45 percent of voters say, while 21 percent want the federal government to create New Jersey's exchange, with 30 percent undecided. From July 9 - 15, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,623 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 49% 7% 89% 43% 44% 53% 39% 87% Romney 38 86 3 39 43 33 46 6 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 4 2 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 1 3 4 2 3 1 DK/NA 8 6 5 10 6 10 9 4 WHITE................................. COLLEGE DEG Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Obama 47% 33% 36% 33% 35% 43% Romney 44 48 51 53 52 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 3 1 3 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 4 3 2 4 2 DK/NA 6 11 9 9 7 11 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME Yes No 18-34 35-54 55+ <50K 50-100 100-250 >250 Obama 53% 46% 64% 49% 44% 55% 44% 52% 46% Romney 38 38 23 36 45 27 45 39 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 3 4 2 2 5 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 4 3 2 2 2 2 5 DK/NA 6 10 5 9 9 10 8 6 4 TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? (2011 wording referenced "2012 election") Jul 18 May 16 Apr 12 Feb 29 Jan 18 Nov 16 Oct 13 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2011 2011 Obama 49 49 49 49 48 49 47 Romney 38 39 40 39 38 40 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 2 4 4 3 3 DK/NA 8 8 7 7 9 7 7 2. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think will win the presidential election, Obama or Romney? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 56% 28% 79% 55% 52% 60% 50% 78% Romney 29 56 11 29 34 26 35 11 DK/NA 14 16 10 16 14 15 15 11 WHITE................................. COLLEGE DEG Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Obama 57% 45% 47% 48% 46% 54% Romney 32 36 35 41 39 30 DK/NA 11 18 18 12 15 16 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME Yes No 18-34 35-54 55+ <50K 50-100 100-250 >250 Obama 61% 53% 72% 56% 50% 59% 54% 61% 57% Romney 28 31 22 28 33 25 33 29 38 DK/NA 11 17 6 15 17 16 14 10 6 3. Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 52% 11% 88% 47% 45% 58% 43% 89% Unfavorable 42 84 6 47 49 36 52 6 Hvn't hrd enough 4 2 4 3 4 3 3 5 REFUSED 2 3 1 3 2 3 2 - WHITE................................. COLLEGE DEG Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Favorable 49% 39% 39% 37% 37% 49% Unfavorable 47 55 56 57 57 46 Hvn't hrd enough 2 3 3 4 3 3 REFUSED 2 3 2 2 3 2 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME Yes No 18-34 35-54 55+ <50K 50-100 100-250 >250 Favorable 54% 50% 64% 51% 48% 57% 49% 54% 49% Unfavorable 42 43 29 42 47 33 46 43 49 Hvn't hrd enough 2 4 4 5 2 6 2 2 1 REFUSED 2 3 3 3 2 3 3 1 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? FAVORABLE..... High Low Jul 18 May 16 Apr 12 Nov 16 Oct 13 Nov 19 Jan 25 2012 2012 2012 2011 2011 2008 2007 Favorable 52 54 52 50 47 64 41 Unfavorable 42 41 43 44 47 21 9 Hvn't hrd enough 4 3 2 3 3 11 49 REFUSED 2 3 2 2 4 4 1 4. Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 35% 74% 8% 38% 42% 29% 43% 9% Unfavorable 43 10 70 39 39 46 38 63 Hvn't hrd enough 19 14 20 21 16 23 17 24 REFUSED 2 2 2 2 3 2 3 4 WHITE................................. COLLEGE DEG Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Favorable 44% 42% 47% 47% 50% 35% Unfavorable 42 35 33 30 33 42 Hvn't hrd enough 13 21 17 21 14 20 REFUSED 2 3 3 2 3 2 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME Yes No 18-34 35-54 55+ <50K 50-100 100-250 >250 Favorable 39% 33% 24% 34% 41% 25% 39% 39% 42% Unfavorable 47 39 55 42 38 46 40 46 42 Hvn't hrd enough 11 25 20 21 19 26 19 13 14 REFUSED 2 3 1 3 2 3 2 1 1 TREND: Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? (* High also 39% Nov 2011) FAVORABLE..... High Low Jul 18 May 16 Apr 12 Nov 16 Oct 13 Apr 12 Jan 25 2012 2012 2012 2011 2011 2012* 2007 Favorable 35 35 39 39 35 39 11 Unfavorable 43 41 37 29 31 37 12 Hvn't hrd enough 19 21 21 30 32 21 76 REFUSED 2 3 3 2 1 3 1 5. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Robert Menendez the Democrat and Joe Kyrillos the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Menendez 47% 10% 82% 44% 43% 52% 41% 75% Kyrillos 34 77 4 33 38 30 41 6 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 3 1 2 1 DK/NA 16 11 12 21 16 16 16 16 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Menendez 63% 47% 41% 53% 35% Kyrillos 23 33 42 26 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 1 4 1 DK/NA 12 16 15 17 19 TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Robert Menendez the Democrat and Joe Kyrillos the Republican, for whom would you vote? Jul 18 May 16 Apr 12 Feb 29 2012 2012 2012 2012 Menendez 47 45 44 49 Kyrillos 34 35 35 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 DK/NA 16 19 18 14 6. Is your opinion of Robert Menendez favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 37% 12% 60% 35% 36% 39% 32% 60% Unfavorable 25 49 6 28 33 19 30 7 Hvn't hrd enough 36 37 32 36 30 41 36 32 REFUSED 1 3 1 1 2 1 1 1 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Favorable 52% 38% 35% 37% 28% Unfavorable 22 26 29 18 31 Hvn't hrd enough 26 34 33 43 40 REFUSED 1 1 2 1 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Robert Menendez favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Jul 18 May 16 Apr 12 Feb 29 2012 2012 2012 2012 Favorable 37 37 35 38 Unfavorable 25 26 27 24 Hvn't hrd enough 36 36 37 36 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 7. Is your opinion of Joe Kyrillos favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 17% 38% 6% 14% 20% 14% 20% 8% Unfavorable 10 2 19 9 11 10 7 25 Hvn't hrd enough 72 60 74 77 68 75 73 66 REFUSED 1 - 1 - 1 1 - 1 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Favorable 12% 14% 19% 12% 29% Unfavorable 14 11 10 11 8 Hvn't hrd enough 73 75 71 76 64 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 - TREND: Is your opinion of Joe Kyrillos favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Jul 18 May 16 Apr 12 Feb 29 2012 2012 2012 2012 Favorable 17 17 14 11 Unfavorable 10 7 6 6 Hvn't hrd enough 72 75 79 82 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Menendez is handling his job as United States Senator? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 46% 19% 70% 45% 42% 49% 41% 68% Disapprove 32 60 9 34 40 24 37 11 DK/NA 22 21 21 21 18 26 22 21 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 60% 46% 42% 47% 36% Disapprove 23 32 36 28 39 DK/NA 17 22 22 26 25 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Menendez is handling his job as United States Senator? APPROVE....... High Low Jul 18 May 16 Apr 12 Feb 29 Jan 18 Feb 29 Feb 20 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2008 Approve 46 44 45 48 42 48 30 Disapprove 32 30 31 31 39 31 31 DK/NA 22 26 24 21 20 21 39 14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Frank Lautenberg is handling his job as United States Senator? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 44% 27% 63% 41% 44% 45% 43% 58% Disapprove 36 57 16 40 41 31 41 18 DK/NA 20 16 21 19 15 24 17 24 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 51% 45% 43% 43% 40% Disapprove 29 36 39 34 41 DK/NA 20 19 18 22 19 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Frank Lautenberg is handling his job as United States Senator? (*High approve also 55% Sep 1999 & Jul 1999) APPROVE....... High Low Jul 18 May 16 Apr 12 Feb 29 Jan 18 Jul 27 Feb 20 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2000* 2008 Approve 44 46 46 49 42 55 39 Disapprove 36 34 34 36 43 22 31 DK/NA 20 20 20 15 15 23 29 15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 51% 11% 86% 45% 45% 56% 42% 87% Disapprove 45 85 8 52 51 40 54 9 DK/NA 4 3 6 3 4 4 4 4 WHITE................................. COLLEGE DEG Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Approve 48% 38% 39% 36% 37% 46% Disapprove 49 58 55 62 60 49 DK/NA 3 4 6 2 3 5 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME Yes No 18-34 35-54 55+ <50K 50-100 100-250 >250 Approve 52% 49% 63% 52% 46% 59% 47% 51% 47% Disapprove 44 46 28 45 50 37 48 47 52 DK/NA 4 5 9 3 4 4 5 2 1 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? APPROVE....... High Low Jul 18 May 16 Apr 12 Feb 29 Jan 18 Jun 10 Oct 13 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2009 2011 Approve 51 53 51 51 49 68 43 Disapprove 45 43 46 45 48 25 52 DK/NA 4 4 3 4 3 7 5 19. Do you feel that Robert Menendez deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes/Deserves 46% 18% 73% 44% 42% 50% 39% 74% No/Does not 34 63 9 37 42 27 40 9 DK/NA 20 20 18 19 16 23 21 17 Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Yes/Deserves 62% 47% 41% 48% 37% No/Does not 21 36 39 29 39 DK/NA 17 17 20 22 24 TREND: Do you feel that Robert Menendez deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? DESERVES...... High Low Jul 18 May 16 Apr 12 Feb 29 Jan 18 Feb 29 Oct 13 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2011 Yes/Deserves 46 42 43 48 45 48 40 No/Does not 34 33 34 34 38 34 38 DK/NA 20 24 23 19 17 19 21 31. Do you think Congress should try to repeal the health care law, or should they let it stand? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Repeal it 45% 81% 13% 50% 52% 39% 52% 15% Let it stand 47 12 79 43 43 51 40 78 DK/NA 8 7 8 7 5 10 8 7 WHITE................................. COLLEGE DEG Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Repeal it 47% 56% 54% 58% 58% 47% Let it stand 48 35 36 34 37 43 DK/NA 5 10 10 8 5 10 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME Yes No 18-34 35-54 55+ <50K 50-100 100-250 >250 Repeal it 43% 47% 32% 47% 48% 38% 51% 45% 49% Let it stand 52 43 62 46 43 52 42 52 48 DK/NA 5 10 7 7 9 10 7 4 3 32. The Supreme Court has heard a challenge to the health care law and voted to uphold it. Do you agree or disagree with the Supreme Court decision to uphold the health care law? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Agree 49% 15% 79% 45% 48% 50% 43% 74% Disagree 45 79 15 49 49 42 51 20 DK/NA 6 6 6 6 3 9 6 6 WHITE................................. COLLEGE DEG Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Agree 53% 36% 41% 36% 42% 44% Disagree 43 56 51 58 54 48 DK/NA 4 8 8 6 4 8 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME Yes No 18-34 35-54 55+ <50K 50-100 100-250 >250 Agree 58% 42% 59% 50% 44% 47% 47% 55% 62% Disagree 38 50 35 45 49 45 47 43 36 DK/NA 3 8 6 6 7 9 6 2 2 33. The Supreme Court's decision also affected Medicaid, the federal health program for low income, uninsured adults. The decision gives state governments the option not to expand their Medicaid programs without losing funding for their existing Medicaid system. Based on what you have read or heard about this, do you agree or disagree with this decision? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Agree 44% 48% 38% 46% 49% 39% 45% 39% Disagree 39 33 46 36 38 40 37 45 DK/NA 18 19 16 17 13 21 18 16 WHITE................................. COLLEGE DEG Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Agree 53% 40% 37% 46% 51% 40% Disagree 33 39 41 35 36 37 DK/NA 14 21 21 19 13 23 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME Yes No 18-34 35-54 55+ <50K 50-100 100-250 >250 Agree 52% 38% 45% 42% 43% 36% 47% 49% 50% Disagree 35 42 40 41 38 47 35 37 34 DK/NA 13 20 15 17 19 16 18 14 15 34. Do you think New Jersey should expand it's Medicaid program to cover more low-income, uninsured adults or don't you think so? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes/Expand 54% 23% 78% 51% 50% 57% 45% 88% No/Don't 38 69 14 41 42 34 46 8 DK/NA 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 4 WHITE................................. COLLEGE DEG Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes/Expand 46% 44% 42% 39% 43% 47% No/Don't 47 45 47 52 50 42 DK/NA 7 11 11 9 7 11 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME Yes No 18-34 35-54 55+ <50K 50-100 100-250 >250 Yes/Expand 51% 55% 66% 56% 48% 68% 50% 48% 51% No/Don't 42 35 30 34 43 24 43 43 45 DK/NA 6 10 5 10 9 8 7 9 4 35. The health care law, upheld by the Supreme Court, allows for a statewide health care exchange. The health care exchange will be set up to offer people a place to shop for affordable healthcare and to compare different healthcare plans. Do you think it would be best if New Jersey's health care exchange was created by the governor and state legislature or do you think it would be best if it was created by the federal government, or don't you have an opinion on that? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Governor/Legislature 45% 61% 26% 52% 51% 39% 48% 22% Federal government 21 6 36 19 20 23 20 32 No opinion 30 27 35 27 25 35 28 42 REFUSED 4 6 2 3 4 3 4 5 WHITE................................. COLLEGE DEG Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Governor/Legislature 50% 47% 48% 50% 53% 44% Federal government 25 16 17 18 19 21 No opinion 23 32 31 28 23 33 REFUSED 3 4 3 4 5 2 COLLEGE DEG AGE IN YEARS..... ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME Yes No 18-34 35-54 55+ <50K 50-100 100-250 >250 Governor/Legislature 48% 42% 44% 44% 45% 35% 48% 48% 62% Federal government 27 18 25 23 19 22 21 24 20 No opinion 22 36 30 30 32 40 29 23 15 REFUSED 3 4 1 4 4 4 2 4 3 Demographic Summary
