October 16, 2012 - Women Lift Obama To 8-Point Lead In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Menendez Leaves Kyrillos In The Dust In Senate Race Word format Watch Video: Assistant Director Tim Malloy discusses poll results Clip Information and Download: FLV File - For Website (1920x1080 / 57.5MB) Original .MP4 File - For Broadcast (1920x1080 / 381.8MB) With three weeks to go until Election Day, President Barack Obama leads Gov. Mitt Romney 51 - 43 percent among New Jersey likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This compares to a 51 - 44 percent Obama lead in a September 6 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. In today's results, women back the president 55 - 39 percent, while men are divided with 48 percent for the Democrat and 47 percent for the Republican challenger. Independent voters back Romney 51 - 42 percent. A total of 8 percent of likely voters, including 9 percent of Obama backers and 7 percent of Romney supporters, say they might change their mind in the next three weeks. New Jersey voters approve 51 - 45 percent of the job the president is doing and give him a 54 - 40 percent favorability rating. Romney gets a slightly negative 43 - 46 percent favorability score. "It's still a blue state and the color didn't fade after the first presidential debate," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "President Barack Obama's lead among likely voters is still in the single digits. Not overwhelming, but it's enough and doesn't seem to be changing. "And New Jerseyans say their minds are made up. Nine tenths of both Obama and Romney supporters say they won't switch in the next 21 days. "On the favorable-unfavorable scale, Romney measures slightly negative, while Obama has a double-digit plus." U.S. Senate Race New Jersey Democratic incumbent Sen. Robert Menendez tops State Sen. Joseph Kyrillos, still unknown to most voters, 55 - 37 percent. A total of 16 percent of likely voters, including 18 percent of Menendez supporters and 13 percent of Kyrillos backers, say they might change their mind by Nov. 6. This compares to a 50 - 40 percent Menendez lead in a September 6 Quinnipiac University poll. In today's result, Menendez leads 52 - 42 percent among men and 58 - 33 percent among women. Independent voters go Democratic 49 - 39 percent. New Jersey likely voters approve 53 - 28 percent of the job the incumbent is doing and give him a 47 - 26 percent favorability rating, with 25 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion. For Kyrillos, 58 percent don't know enough about him to form an opinion. "Who is Joe Kyrillos? State Sen. Joseph Kyrillos has a bit of an improvement in name recognition since his debates with Sen. Robert Menendez, but more than half of New Jerseyans still don't know him well enough to decide if they like him or dislike him," Carroll said. "Normally, a challenger, even an unknown, can gain a little ground on the incumbent in the final weeks of a campaign. That doesn't seem to be happening for Kyrillos." From October 10 - 14, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,319 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or Romney? (Table includes leaners and early voters) LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 51% 8% 93% 42% 48% 55% 43% 93% Romney 43 90 3 51 47 39 52 3 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 - 1 1 - DK/NA 5 2 4 6 5 6 5 4 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Obama 50% 38% 42% 33% 38% 47% 21% 40% Romney 46 56 54 62 57 48 70 55 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 1 - 1 DK/NA 3 6 5 4 4 5 8 4 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Obama 56% 48% 65% 53% 53% 49% 58% 54% 47% Romney 39 45 23 41 43 48 36 42 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 - 1 1 - 1 DK/NA 4 6 11 5 4 2 5 4 5 TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or Romney? (Table includes leaners and early voters) LIKELY VOTERS Oct 16 Sep 06 2012 2012 Obama 51 51 Romney 43 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 DK/NA 5 4 1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS....... CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1 Tot Obama Romney Mind made up 92% 90% 93% Might change 8 9 7 DK/NA - - - TREND: (If candidate chosen) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS... CANDIDATE CHOSEN Oct 16 Sep 06 2012 2012 Mind made up 92 89 Might change 8 10 DK/NA - 1 2. Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 43% 87% 6% 48% 46% 40% 50% 6% Unfavorable 46 7 83 38 44 48 40 85 Hvn't hrd enough 9 5 9 11 9 9 7 7 REFUSED 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 1 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Favorable 47% 52% 53% 60% 54% 48% 64% 54% Unfavorable 46 37 34 32 38 43 18 37 Hvn't hrd enough 5 9 9 7 8 7 12 7 REFUSED 2 2 5 1 1 3 6 1 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Favorable 42% 43% 23% 42% 42% 49% 35% 43% 47% Unfavorable 50 43 52 47 51 45 50 48 43 Hvn't hrd enough 5 11 19 9 6 5 14 8 7 REFUSED 2 2 6 2 1 2 1 2 3 TREND: Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS Oct 16 Sep 06 2012 2012 Favorable 43 43 Unfavorable 46 41 Hvn't hrd enough 9 13 REFUSED 2 3 3. Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 54% 12% 92% 46% 50% 57% 45% 96% Unfavorable 40 82 5 48 44 37 49 3 Hvn't hrd enough 3 2 3 2 3 2 3 1 REFUSED 3 3 1 3 3 4 3 - WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Favorable 53% 40% 46% 35% 41% 49% 24% 43% Unfavorable 43 53 49 60 54 45 64 53 Hvn't hrd enough 1 4 - 3 3 3 - 3 REFUSED 3 4 5 3 2 4 12 2 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Favorable 59% 51% 68% 54% 55% 52% 62% 55% 49% Unfavorable 37 42 20 39 41 44 31 40 46 Hvn't hrd enough 1 4 8 3 1 1 7 2 1 REFUSED 3 4 3 4 3 3 - 3 3 TREND: Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS Oct 16 Sep 06 2012 2012 Favorable 54 52 Unfavorable 40 44 Hvn't hrd enough 3 1 REFUSED 3 2 4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Robert Menendez the Democrat and Joe Kyrillos the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Menendez or Kyrillos? (Table includes leaners and early voters) LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Menendez 55% 9% 94% 49% 52% 58% 48% 90% Kyrillos 37 85 3 39 42 33 44 6 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 8 6 3 12 6 9 8 4 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Menendez 52% 45% 44% 41% 44% 51% 29% 46% Kyrillos 40 47 47 52 50 40 59 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 8 7 8 7 6 10 12 7 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Menendez 56% 54% 69% 56% 57% 52% 62% 54% 53% Kyrillos 35 39 19 40 36 43 28 40 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - - - DK/NA 9 7 12 5 7 5 10 6 7 TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Robert Menendez the Democrat and Joe Kyrillos the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Menendez or Kyrillos? (Table includes leaners and early voters) LIKELY VOTERS Oct 16 Sep 06 2012 2012 Menendez 55 50 Kyrillos 37 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - DK/NA 8 10 4a. (If Senate candidate chosen q4) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS......... CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q4... Tot Menendez Kyrillos Mind made up 83% 81% 86% Might change 16 18 13 DK/NA 1 1 - TREND: (If Senate candidate chosen) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS... CANDIDATE CHOSEN Oct 16 Sep 06 2012 2012 Mind made up 83 80 Might change 16 20 DK/NA 1 - 5. Is your opinion of Robert Menendez favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 47% 12% 78% 42% 45% 50% 42% 72% Unfavorable 26 56 3 27 31 21 30 5 Hvn't hrd enough 25 29 18 30 23 27 26 23 REFUSED 2 2 - 2 1 2 2 - WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Favorable 47% 39% 37% 38% 41% 44% 24% 41% Unfavorable 30 30 33 37 38 24 46 32 Hvn't hrd enough 22 28 28 24 21 30 26 25 REFUSED 1 3 3 2 1 3 5 2 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Favorable 52% 45% 51% 49% 47% 49% 40% 49% 49% Unfavorable 25 26 14 25 27 28 15 24 33 Hvn't hrd enough 22 27 31 25 25 21 44 26 16 REFUSED 1 2 4 1 1 1 2 1 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Robert Menendez favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS Oct 16 Sep 06 2012 2012 Favorable 47 42 Unfavorable 26 28 Hvn't hrd enough 25 28 REFUSED 2 1 6. Is your opinion of Joe Kyrillos favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 28% 59% 7% 28% 33% 24% 32% 10% Unfavorable 13 1 24 10 15 11 11 20 Hvn't hrd enough 58 40 68 61 52 63 56 69 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 - 1 1 1 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Favorable 30% 34% 32% 40% 38% 27% 41% 36% Unfavorable 14 9 10 9 12 10 4 11 Hvn't hrd enough 56 56 55 51 50 61 50 53 REFUSED 1 1 3 - 1 1 5 - COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Favorable 26% 30% 11% 37% 26% 33% 22% 28% 32% Unfavorable 16 11 18 7 12 14 10 15 13 Hvn't hrd enough 57 59 68 55 62 52 68 58 52 REFUSED 1 1 3 1 - - - - 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Joe Kyrillos favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS Oct 16 Sep 06 2012 2012 Favorable 28 23 Unfavorable 13 10 Hvn't hrd enough 58 65 REFUSED 1 1 12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Menendez is handling his job as United States Senator? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 53% 21% 82% 47% 51% 55% 48% 79% Disapprove 28 57 4 31 34 22 32 6 DK/NA 19 23 14 22 16 22 20 15 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Approve 51% 46% 39% 44% 46% 50% 26% 46% Disapprove 31 33 37 38 40 26 53 35 DK/NA 19 21 24 18 15 24 22 19 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Approve 54% 52% 61% 58% 55% 52% 57% 52% 52% Disapprove 27 28 17 24 27 31 19 27 34 DK/NA 19 19 21 19 18 17 24 21 14 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Menendez is handling his job as United States Senator? LIKELY VOTERS Oct 16 Sep 06 2012 2012 Approve 53 49 Disapprove 28 33 DK/NA 19 19 13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 51% 7% 91% 42% 46% 55% 42% 92% Disapprove 45 89 7 53 50 40 53 6 DK/NA 5 4 2 5 4 5 4 2 WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Approve 49% 38% 40% 32% 38% 46% 19% 40% Disapprove 48 57 54 63 59 49 71 56 DK/NA 3 5 6 5 3 5 10 4 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Approve 55% 48% 66% 52% 52% 46% 60% 51% 45% Disapprove 41 47 27 39 45 50 38 44 50 DK/NA 4 5 7 9 3 3 2 5 4 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? LIKELY VOTERS Oct 16 Sep 06 2012 2012 Approve 51 51 Disapprove 45 46 DK/NA 5 3 Demographic Summary
