July 9, 2013 - Booker Tops 50% In NJ Senate Primary, General Election, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Lonegan Dominates GOP Primary PDF format Newark Mayor Cory Booker tops the magic 50 percent mark in both the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate from New Jersey and the general election, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. In a Democratic primary, Booker has 52 percent, with 10 percent for U.S. Rep. Frank Pallone, 8 percent for U.S. Rep. Rush Holt and 3 percent for Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver. Another 26 percent are undecided. This compares to the results of a June 10 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN- uh-pe-ack) University poll showing Booker at 53 percent, with 10 percent for Holt and 9 percent for Pallone. The survey was conducted before Oliver announced her candidacy. In a Republican primary, Steve Lonegan tops Alieta Eck 62 - 5 percent, with 28 percent undecided. In possible general election matchups: Booker beats Lonegan 53 - 30 percent; Pallone gets 38 percent to Lonegan's 34 percent; Holt gets 37 percent to Lonegan's 36 percent; Lonegan gets 37 percent to Oliver's 35 percent. "It looks as if the speculation was right: Newark Mayor Cory Booker seems to be a shoo-in for the U.S. Senate," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Political observers wondered why Congressmen Frank Pallone and Rush Holt didn't make a deal for one of them to step out and throw his support to the other," Carroll added. "These results show that probably wouldn't help. Pallone's and Rush's combined total in the Democratic primary still trails Booker's tally almost 3-1. "Observers also wondered why Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver, like Booker, an Essex County pol, decided to run. She's the weakest of the bunch. "Steve Lonegan gets the bedrock Republican 30 percent, and not much more, against everyone. "The Republican race looks even more one-sided than the Democratic primary; Alieta Eck hardly registers. New Jersey voters have a 56 - 16 percent favorable opinion of Booker, while 27 percent don't know enough about him to form an opinion. The "don't know enough" measures for the other contenders are: Pallone - 63 percent; Holt - 68 percent; Oliver - 71 percent; Lonegan - 54 percent; Eck - 91 percent. "In the favorable-unfavorable measure, only Booker comes close to being a household name. Even Oliver, a power in Trenton, isn't well known and Eck is all but anonymous," Carroll said. From July 2 - 7, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,068 New Jersey voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The survey includes 400 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percentage points and 330 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 5.4 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research. For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. (If Registered Democrat) If the Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Cory Booker, Rush Holt, Frank Pallone, and Sheila Oliver, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED DEMOCRATS Tot Men Wom Booker 52% 52% 53% Holt 8 10 6 Pallone 10 11 8 Oliver 3 1 4 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 1 DK/NA 26 24 27 TREND:(If Registered Democrat) If the Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Cory Booker, Rush Holt, Frank Pallone, and Sheila Oliver, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED DEMOCRATS Jul 09 Jun 10 2013 2013 Booker 52 53 Holt 8 10 Pallone 10 9 Oliver 3 na SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 4 DK/NA 26 23 2. (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Alieta Eck and Steve Lonegan, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED REPUBLICANS Tot Men Wom Eck 5% 5% 5% Lonegan 62 69 56 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 5 2 DK/NA 28 19 36 3. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Cory Booker the Democrat and Steve Lonegan the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Booker 53% 15% 87% 50% 51% 56% 49% 79% Lonegan 30 74 2 28 32 28 35 4 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 2 1 1 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 - 2 3 4 2 2 3 DK/NA 13 10 8 18 11 15 12 10 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Booker 60% 49% 51% 57% 56% 63% 55% 49% Lonegan 29 30 27 32 28 18 29 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 2 - 1 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 2 3 3 4 3 2 DK/NA 8 16 17 8 12 12 11 14 TREND: If the election for United State Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Cory Booker the Democrat and Steve Lonegan the Republican, for whom would you vote? Jul 09 Jun 10 2013 2013 Booker 53 54 Lonegan 30 27 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 DK/NA 13 16 4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Frank Pallone the Democrat and Steve Lonegan the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Pallone 38% 6% 76% 28% 35% 41% 34% 66% Lonegan 34 80 5 34 39 30 41 6 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 - 3 4 1 2 6 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 1 3 6 5 3 4 4 DK/NA 21 12 16 28 17 25 19 19 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Pallone 45% 34% 34% 45% 40% 38% 39% 38% Lonegan 33 35 29 35 36 20 35 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 3 1 3 3 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 5 3 4 7 3 3 DK/NA 16 25 29 16 17 31 19 17 TREND: If the election for United State Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Frank Pallone the Democrat and Steve Lonegan the Republican, for whom would you vote? Jul 09 Jun 10 2013 2013 Pallone 38 39 Lonegan 34 29 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 DK/NA 21 27 5. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Rush Holt the Democrat and Steve Lonegan the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Holt 37% 2% 75% 29% 35% 39% 35% 56% Lonegan 36 88 2 34 39 33 42 7 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 2 2 4 2 2 8 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 - 4 8 6 3 4 6 DK/NA 20 8 17 27 16 23 17 23 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Holt 43% 34% 36% 41% 37% 43% 35% 37% Lonegan 35 36 31 38 38 22 40 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 3 3 3 2 4 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 5 5 4 5 9 4 3 DK/NA 16 22 25 14 18 24 17 19 TREND: If the election for United State Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Rush Holt the Democrat and Steve Lonegan the Republican, for whom would you vote? Jul 09 Jun 10 2013 2013 Holt 37 36 Lonegan 36 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 DK/NA 20 29 6. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Sheila Oliver the Democrat and Steve Lonegan the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Oliver 35% 2% 72% 26% 32% 38% 30% 60% Lonegan 37 88 4 37 41 33 43 5 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 1 2 5 1 2 7 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 1 4 8 7 2 4 5 DK/NA 21 8 20 27 16 26 20 23 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Oliver 41% 32% 36% 39% 36% 45% 34% 33% Lonegan 37 36 29 38 39 23 38 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 4 2 2 2 5 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 4 6 4 6 5 3 DK/NA 16 25 27 16 18 24 18 22 7. Is your opinion of Cory Booker favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 56% 42% 68% 57% 56% 55% 55% 60% Unfavorable 16 30 4 16 19 12 18 7 Hvn't hrd enough 27 25 26 25 23 29 25 31 REFUSED 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 3 TREND: Is your opinion of Cory Booker favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Jul 09 Jun 10 Feb 21 Jan 23 Nov 28 Sep 05 2013 2013 2013 2013 2012 2012 Favorable 56 57 59 54 52 49 Unfavorable 16 14 11 16 13 11 Hvn't hrd enough 27 25 28 29 33 38 REFUSED 2 3 1 2 1 1 8. Is your opinion of Frank Pallone favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 22% 13% 30% 20% 26% 18% 21% 21% Unfavorable 13 26 5 14 17 10 15 7 Hvn't hrd enough 63 60 65 64 56 70 63 70 REFUSED 2 1 1 2 - 3 2 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Frank Pallone favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Jul 09 Jun 10 2013 2013 Favorable 22 21 Unfavorable 13 9 Hvn't hrd enough 63 68 REFUSED 2 1 9. Is your opinion of Rush Holt favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 18% 10% 27% 15% 22% 14% 20% 11% Unfavorable 12 25 4 13 16 9 16 1 Hvn't hrd enough 68 65 67 70 61 74 63 86 REFUSED 2 1 2 2 1 3 1 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Rush Holt favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Jul 09 Jun 10 2013 2013 Favorable 18 20 Unfavorable 12 11 Hvn't hrd enough 68 67 REFUSED 2 2 10. Is your opinion of Steve Lonegan favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 30% 65% 6% 30% 37% 24% 34% 9% Unfavorable 14 2 23 14 19 10 15 11 Hvn't hrd enough 54 32 70 53 43 63 49 78 REFUSED 2 1 1 3 1 3 2 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Steve Lonegan favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Jul 09 Jun 10 May 20 Apr 22 Mar 12 Feb 04 2013 2013 2009 2009 2009 2009 Favorable 30 25 19 20 15 15 Unfavorable 14 12 11 7 7 6 Hvn't hrd enough 54 62 68 72 77 78 REFUSED 2 1 2 1 1 1 11. Is your opinion of Sheila Oliver favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 14% 4% 24% 11% 15% 13% 12% 20% Unfavorable 13 22 3 17 17 10 17 3 Hvn't hrd enough 71 74 72 69 67 74 69 73 REFUSED 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 4 12. Is your opinion of Alieta Eck favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 3% 2% 4% 2% 4% 3% 3% 6% Unfavorable 5 8 2 6 6 3 5 3 Hvn't hrd enough 91 90 94 92 90 92 91 90 REFUSED 1 - - 1 1 2 1 2 17. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 53% 7% 88% 50% 48% 56% 44% 89% Disapprove 41 86 10 43 46 37 50 4 DK/NA 6 6 2 8 6 7 6 7 COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS....... Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+ Approve 54% 52% 56% 50% 54% 65% 53% 47% Disapprove 42 40 34 44 42 28 43 46 DK/NA 4 8 10 6 5 6 5 7 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? APPROVE....... High Low Jul 09 Jun 10 Apr 24 Mar 26 Feb 21 Jun 10 Oct 13 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2009 2011 Approve 53 53 57 54 57 68 43 Disapprove 41 41 38 42 40 25 52 DK/NA 6 5 5 4 3 7 5 Demographic Summary
